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S11

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Posts posted by S11

  1. 13 hours ago, 'stache said:

    Because our on-field success and TV ratings (even excluding UT/OU games) are in the upper echelon of the post OU/UT Big XII? You also realize that the games are broadcast in more places than Stillwater, right? No movement has happened because the PAC programs don't know what they might make. You can't compare USC/UCLA moving to the BIG because it was known with absolute certainty that they'd make more money there than any PAC possibilities. The longer this drags out, it increases their frustration within the PAC 10 that they can't make any decisions until Klavikoff gets off his ass and actually produced a real offer. Until then, no decision maker in their right mind would make a move without complete information. I get it, "OKST and everyone else are worthless." The media companies disagree, but the faction of surly-ites who insist that nobody else matters are gonna surly, which is fine, it's your board, just a bizarre theme to get hung up on in an otherwise interesting conversation.

    OKST, BU, TCU, and WVU had the top ratings of the remaining 8.   The first three *should* be included but it's the PAC so they'd likely do something dumb like invite Tulane, Rice, and UC Santa Barbara for academics.

  2. 1 hour ago, CustersDoctor said:

    So I've thought the PAC12 was paying more and they haven't been. Is that what I am seeing here?

    Due to the pac 12 network sucking at monetizing the bottom half of their inventory… yes.   This also doesn’t include tier three rights where the remaining 8 get 3m each and the LHN gives UT much more.

  3. 18 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

    Yeah, it gets a bit grey here because I'm not sure if the network valuation includes the inventory or not.   What I do know is that within the contract that included Fox and ESPN, the PACN received 2 football games from each school, or 24 games per season, which is kind of the minimum you need to start your own network.

    USC/UCLA are gone now though and their 4 games are leaving next year.   Meaning they either need to get back to 12 or they need to add 2.4 games per year per school to feed the PACN beast. Creative scheduling be damned to napkin math, you really only have 6 home games a year per team.   So, at ten, you have 40% of your inventory off the market and unable to sell.

    The B12, who didn't have a conference network, just sold 100% of its games for $32m/team/year.   If the Pac is on even financial footing, they should see a contract of around $20m/year/school for the 60% of inventory it did sell.   It will need to make up the difference with the PacN.   Either it:

    • Starts paying out $10-15m per year for that 40% of inventory after never really paying more than $3-4m prior or
    • The Pac takes back the inventory, sells the PACN infrastructure (which has value, there are studios and uplinks, and people with expertise - maybe $100m?), and sells 100% of their inventory like the B12 or ACC did, which would likely eclipse the B12 by $2-5m per team per year due to the asset sale.

    We approach the sunken cost fallacy realm here, but if GK is dangling a carrot from a bad investment, Colorado will want to wait until the last minute to see what that is.   Their big fear will be leaving for a big loss (buyout, pay comcast debt) and then also missing out on a future asset sale.    It may be a dilapidated house in a bad neighborhood, but its still an asset.

    The inventory from last year is 37 on Pac 12 net of 81 total home games.   44 to ESPN/FOX.   It's roughly 6.5 home games per school with 2 noncon and 4.5 in league play.

    Assuming they keep it at roughly 3 games per school for the Pac 12 Network that leaves roughly 35 left.

    The P12 Network has averaged only 2.5M since inception and recently broke past 3M.   That number may take a big hit when LA and it's carriage fees leave the P12 Network footprint.

    For them to have a prayer of catching the Big 12 number with an intact P12 network the games outside the P12 network probably need to be at least 27 million per school and that assumes the P12 Network will be monetized better.   20 is way too low IMO since the P12 network inventory is the rump end.   For context the Big 12 got around 3M per school's individual deals with ESPN+ a couple years back off the record for the bottom 1-2 games per school.

    I question who other than streaming services have the windows available to charge the dollars needed to pay that.   With FOX bowing out the partner with the most open OTA windows to sell ads against is gone.   CBS, ABC, NBC, and ESPN are mostly full.   The rest won't be able to drive viewers the way the PAC wants to sell ads at that high of a clip.  The "After Dark" spot has a high floor and low ceiling for viewership which also in turn limits ad revenue.

    I disagree selling everything would eclipse the Big 12 on a long term basis.  The biggest issue is the only major OTA spots open are at noon eastern and the PAC doesn't play that early.   FOX isn't paying top dollar to slot FS1.  CBS isn't paying top dollar to feed CBS SN.   ESPN isn't paying top dollar for late games, ESPN2, or ESPN+.

  4. On 7/17/2023 at 3:46 PM, CustersDoctor said:

    HOLLYWOOD MARRIAGES THAT DIDN'T LAST AS LONG AS THE PACX MEDIA NEGOTIATIONS:

    BRITNEY SPEARS & JASON ALEXANDER 55hrs

    NICOLAS CAGE & ERIKA KOIKE 4 DAYS

    KRIS HUMPHRIES & KIM KARDASHIAN 72 DAYS

    NICOLAS CAGE & LISA MAIRIE PRESLEY 107 DAYS

    PAMELA ANDERSON & KID ROCK 122 DAYS

    KENNY CHESNEY & RENEE ZELLWEGER 128 DAYS

    CARMEN ELECTRA & DENNIS RODMAN 129 DAYS

    SOPHIA BUSH & CHAD MICHAEL MURPHY 163 DAYS

    JENNIFER LOPEZ & CHRIS JUDD 218 DAYS

    JIM CAREY & LAUREN HOLLY 309 DAYS

    ELIZABETH TAYLOR HAD FIVE MARRIAGES THAT DIDN'T LAST THIS LONG

    MILEY CYRUS & LIAM HEMSWORTH 8 MONTHS

    CHER & GREG ALLMAN 9 DAYS

    Greatness

  5. 6 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

    This, trust me, they've seen numbers.   They just haven't seen numbers to keep everyone happy.

    Also, i think they're dealing with something the B12 didn't have to deal with, which is the PacNet.

    Contractually i think they fed around a third of their football games to the PACN, or around two games per team per year.   Dropping to ten means that jumps to 40%, leaving a lot less to sell to other partners.   Their best bet is unloading PACN to a buyer and including those games as a rights deal going forward.   That is far more difficult to cobble together than just selling rights.   Its an anchor currently.

    The PAC net was around 37 of their 81 games last year or just under 46% and both from a money (averaged 2.5M per year since inception per-school) and exposure (fewer than 15M subscribers vs 25M ESPN+, 74M FS1, 76M ESPN) it's been a disaster.

    How well they can move on from it with regard to cost and legal obligation will be huge.

    I can't see the money getting better- replacing the revenue USC/UCLA drive in LA's market via carriage fees with the dubious proposition of getting either of SMU and San Diego State to get any real money forcing cable providers in DFW or SD to push the P12N is laughable.   Remember TCU & SDSU couldn't get the MWC network on and the PAC doesn't have FOX or ESPN in their corner.  That's before we look at the impact of the swapout for ads on a hard to find platform.

  6. 10 minutes ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

     

    So if the ACC is hopping on the CW...where the hell does the PAC think there games are going to get airtime? KUBE 57 out of Baytown?

     

    1-  This ACC deal is just the Raycom sublicensed games that were on Bally before they cratered.  Roughly one game a week.  Plenty of room to have another per week and possibly after dark too.

    2- In light of this, if the PAC can't get the deal done it's because it wasn't getting one done with the CW for the right price.  This isn't the ACC's top games or even in their top 30.

  7. 14 hours ago, camel at sea said:

    It's hard to see how the Big 12 takes 2 from the PAC, and stops at taking only 2 from the PAC.

    Maybe the play is to try to skip over ASU/Utah and bring in UO/UW as #15/#16.  

    Likely needs to be tied to how much inventory FOX/ESPN will push for in the "After Dark" slot.   That's the biggest gap in their collections.

    At 3 games per school and pairing with BYU you can get to 15 with 4 so I don't think there's enough incentive to go past 4.

  8. On 6/5/2023 at 9:11 AM, Al_4_ISU said:

    Until the playoff committee/CFB media start penalizing the SEC for playing 8 games, I think most schools value the extra W over the extra $ that would come with the 9th game.

    I remember in the early 2010's it was almost comical that MSU would schedule 4 easy games just to get bowl eligible.

  9. 2 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

    The idea of an annual BYU/WVU game is hilarious and awesome to me.  Mormons in Morgantown is pure comedy.

    Figured that would be a good one as it pairs top 20 all time wins eastern brand WVU with BYU's large brand in the west.   Also pairs ISU with Cincinnati for recruiting interests.

     

    But the general idea is build divisions based on historical affiliations.

  10. Agree. Steal a couple of schools from a P5 conference or take BYU (big following) and Cincinnati(Nice metro area with room to grow) and be done with it. Both teams would bring viewers and both have shown the ability to be competitive with other P5 schools. This allows the Big12 to split into two divisions and gives us an extra win each year. Every team in the conference would be one game better each year and it still allows reaches like Nebraska and Arkansas to be added and make sense geographically. It also makes for a competitive north conference if BYU, Iowa State and West Virginia can stay respectable.
    North:
    BYU-WVU-Cinn-ISU-Kansas-Kansas State
    South:
    Texas-OUsux-OSU-Tech-TCU-Baylor
     


    Keep historical rivalries intact.

    One permanent rival protects Texas-OU and the rest partner off logically.

    4 SWC teams + 2 newbies
    5 Big 8 teams + 1 newbie

    That would keep the biggest brands in each division and mostly balance things out competitively. OkSt/KU/KSU likely pair off with the other three TX schools. ISU probably pairs with an addition as they recruit outside TX more than the other three.

    So if it’s Cincy and BYU...

    Texas-OU
    Tech-OSU
    BU-KU
    TCU-KSU
    Cincy-ISU
    WVU-BYU

    If it’s AZ/ASU (hypothetical)

    Texas-OU
    Tech-OSU
    BU-KU
    TCU-KSU
    AZ-ISU
    ASU-WVU


    Move WV and the two additions to either division depending on who they are.

    Get more creative with hoops scheduling to mitigate distance issues for outlier schools.

  11. They play 10 this year, and all of a sudden their defenses aren't magical.   They ranked behind the Big 12 and Big Ten going into last week.  What a difference two games makes.

    Yup. Expansion back to 12 would help the league schedule more wins and improve perception.
    • Hook 'Em 1
  12. Bama has been amazing over the last decade.

     

    that said two questionable selections (2011 & 2017), a freak nerve shot to McCoys arm, and Ohio state probation account for all but one of their titles.

    still very good but shows how much luck/help can help deliver a title/playoff appearance.
     

    2001 had Nebraska get help to get to the game

    2003 had Cal upset USC to pave the way for OU/LSU

    2004 screwed Auburn and also denied two other unbeatens.

    2006 has Florida get in over Michigan, USC, and Wisconsin.

    2007 was a cluster where LSU got the benefit of the doubt over USC, OU, KU, WV, and Usc.

    2008 had OU and UF squeak by UT, USC, and PSU
     

    2011 screwed OKST to give Bama a rematch

     

    2012 saw Bama luck out that tOSU was on probation

     

    2014 had tOSU squeak by both Bu and TCU

    2017 had bama slide in over both Ohio St and unbeaten Ucf

    Many of the teams left out could have won.   Bama has been good but getting the benefit of the doubt in two contested years has been huge.

  13. On 8/13/2020 at 2:14 PM, Jhawk said:

    Honestly... I'd take NU back if we could get CU back as well.  Texas and OU have gotten what they wanted out of the other pawns in the conference.  NU can't bitch about it now.  Let them back in and let's get to 12.  But Fuck Aggie and MU.

    I’d take them back even without CU.  It’d be nice to have that mutual rivalry back but NU is big enough they don’t need CU to rejoin.

    NU left with seven of the 12 schools looking around to the only logical landing spot for them.  Understandable move despite the hostile pr and fan reactions towards the Big 12 and UT.

     

  14. On 8/13/2020 at 9:28 AM, conVINCEd said:

    Academic standards.

    1- That didn’t help so while there is some truth to it it wasn’t so much their recruiting that won big it was...

     

    2- Player development was a huge edge and others eventually caught up to their strength and conditioning advantage.   Now everyone was able to take high upside low stars and develop them and the days of Tennessee’s safety saying “we were the same height and weight but Nebraska was BIGGER than we were” were over.


     

    3- That hurt and many DC’s like Snyder’s tree (Stoops/Venables/Leavitt) found a way to slow that unique offense and like everyone the defense had to adjust to the spread era.   The ways they recruited specialists who fit the system worked well until the system got stuffed more effectively.

     

    4- Finally seeing more teams effectively matching TV exposure than previously had and more regional competition for prized recruits in NJ/FL and to a much lesser extent missouri took a toll.

  15. Look at the recruiting ground and historical brand.

    Big 12 draft picks really need to be split by  groups:

     

    schools youd expect to do really well:

    texas & ou

     

    schools That should do decently well

    BU, TCU, OkSt, WVU, possibly TTU despite Lubbock being far from any recruiting area (although they do a good job overcoming it)

     

    everyone else who doesn’t sit in a good recruiting area  (Remember WVU sits close to Pittsburgh, Virginia, and Md.)

     

    So you’re mostly relying on 7 schools.   Compared to 14 team SEC, B1G, and ACC it’s going to lead to some disparity.  League needs to do better but the raw number would be better compared with adjusting for those 7.   Other than Hakeem Adeniji did the other three have anyone drafted?

    the entire SEC is basically in a recruiting ground, 12/14 in the ACC are, the B1G has most of the east as well as some programs with some linemen developing in pipelines established in the west.

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