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Scipio

Burnt Ends
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Posts posted by Scipio

  1. On 9/7/2022 at 9:54 AM, UT_OB1 said:

    1031 it in to a new rental?  I thought I’d read that you could even 1031 in to some rei 

    Too often, 1031s are a seductive trap where investors let the tax tail wag the investment dog. The time to identify and close on the new property passes much more quickly than you perceive. You end up rushing into a C level asset with extreme pressure to close, no matter what due diligence reveals.

    I'd look at CRE investing where you can offset capital gains with Year 1 depreciation losses.

    Delaware Statutory Trusts are for marks or the elderly content to earn their fee laden 5.5% so they can enjoy life. 

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  2. On 1/27/2022 at 10:36 AM, jimmyjazz said:

    Let's talk Austin proper:  what are the thoughts on real estate values going forward?  Despite rising interest rates, I'm having a hard time seeing a major deceleration in price growth.  There is not enough supply and too much demand, which is only being exacerbated by the explosion of tech and industry coming to town.

    Full disclosure:  I am quite literally trying to time our exit from this city.  I'll happily rent an appreciating house out should we bail sooner than the market peaks, although that makes me less nimble in the event of a sudden correction.  

    I don't see a deceleration anytime soon, but macroeconomic events happen. 

    I rented out my house in Austin for 17 years and there is currently a significant delta between rent and your actual costs at a lot price points. Austin rents are rising to meet demand, but I don't like eating a cash loss every month with the hope of even more appreciation to make it worth your while on the back end. You'd also need to learn to be a landlord, unless you hire property management, vile charlatans that belong in Dante's deepest circles of Hell. I don't know your individual situation though. Feel free to PM if you need a sounding board. 

    I hope you can absolutely nail the high point of the market, but the quest for absolute optimization can be a trap. As you mention, homes aren't particularly nimble assets if a market dynamic shifts. 

    You're in the catbird seat sitting on an enviably appreciated asset so don't fret utter optimization. 

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  3. 9 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

    It’s amazing once you look back how often this same style con gets repackaged and used on the naive old money. The sad part is that we only hear of the big fish scams and yet there are tons of these at a smaller scale all the time.

    Absolutely. The classic cons are just repackaged, exploited base desires the ancient Greeks wrote about. The Spanish Prisoner now comes to you via Nigerian emailers. 

    The con in con man stands for confidence. How a swindler plays to your confidence determines the grift's efficacy. The conned are the most ardent defenders of the con artist until it's all laid bare. Even well after. Because they're defending their own sense of self. 

    Madoff's time honored long con strategy once he got some scale was in refusing to allow people to invest with him. "No, no we are full. I can't help you. I'm sorry." The person presses him more. "Look, this isn't the right move for you. Our investors are aggressive, bold, confident." The prospective client begs.  "Please Bernie, please. Fit me in." Bernie would relent after making a great show fo asking an underling if they could make room.  "Yes, but only in the next 24 hours, Bernie. A spot just opened up. And it has to be an XXXX commitment!" Madoff reluctantly consents while shaking his head at the investor's good fortune. You think the investor who begged to get in will be asking for quarterlies? Financials? He is grateful. He is now part of an elite, secret club of stars and socialites. 

    Watch this scene from Goodfellas for a similar street level con. The restaurant owner implores Paulie to take an interest in the place and "protect him"....from Paulie's own guys. Paulie plays the coy refusal, mob style and finally agrees to help him out. Dude leaves that meeting thinking he's been done a favor.  They rob him blind and burn it down. 

    NSFW (language)

     

     

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  4. 47 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

    Mattis is the only investor I feel bad for. All the Marines I know really liked serving under him. He seems like a good man that should have stayed out of the VC world. I hope he recoups his money in a book deal. 

    He's a grown man and his own greed/ignorance got the best of him. He allowed Theranos to use his good name as a credibility signal to bilk others.  

    Theranos didn't target SV smart money for the most part - they were focused on East Coast and Washington DC elite money who were gonna get rich on this Silicon Valley startup thing they'd read about in the New York Times.  "It seems that this technology thing is here to stay! We're buying Google at a $1.50! Look at the names on their board!  And a visionary woman CEO!"

    That's why they had a board of directors comprised of Kissinger, Schultz, Mattis, Perry, Nunn - for the DC or East Coast investor that's a blessing from an old establishment who are "plugged in" and must know something we proles do not. In essence, it was a signal to the dumb smart who operate based on credentialism, sweetheart deals, bullshit guided contracts, and implied associations rather than substance. 

    Madoff, redux. 

     

     

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  5. Thanks for the generous intro. We're fired up about this partnership. Surly is Gabe's home base (and I'm a long time lurker) and the opportunity to invest in the community is an honor we don't take lightly. Helping to optimize an important part of your financial life is a responsibility that we take seriously. Thanks for giving us a shot at earning your business.

    Hook 'em. 

     

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