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Pound Town

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  1. 31 minutes ago, NoName said:

    The Athletic did a 16 scenario look if folks are interested, it's just their opinion

     

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    Predicting the College Football Playoff field: The 16 possible scenarios

    INGLEWOOD, CA - JANUARY 09: The College Football Playoff National Championship Trophy sits on the field before the game between the Georgia Bulldogs and the TCU Horned Frogs held at SoFi Stadium on January 9, 2023 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images)
    By Stewart Mandel
    Nov 27, 2023

     

    393

     

    Heading into championship weekend, eight teams — Georgia, Michigan, Washington, Oregon, Florida State, Texas, Alabama and Ohio State (barely) — can still reach the College Football Playoff. That’s the highest there have been in the 10-year CFP era.

    Only three times have there been seven, in 2015, 2017 and 2019, but even in those, one or more teams would have needed to pull an unlikely conference championship upset. What stands out about this year’s field is the seven teams playing this weekend are all reasonable picks to win their respective title games. It wouldn’t take much to unleash chaos.

    Including what would arguably be the toughest decision the committee has ever faced: Alabama beating Georgia, and the No. 4 seed coming down to a 13-0 Florida State team without its star quarterback or the 12-1 two-time defending national champs.

    Even discarding the non-possibility of Iowa upsetting Michigan (you can throw this back in my face if the Hawkeyes pull off a 3-2 win), there are 16 possible combinations of results involving the ACC (Florida State-Louisville), Big 12 (Texas-Oklahoma State), Pac-12 (Washington-Oregon) and SEC (Georgia-Alabama) championship games. Below, I predict how the committee would rank the top five teams after each set of results.

    For these purposes, I’m predicting the committee on Tuesday drops Ohio State from No. 2 to No. 5 following its 30-24 road loss to Michigan, behind the four undefeated teams but highest of the one-loss teams, but knowing any of Oregon, Texas or Alabama would pass the Buckeyes if they win this weekend.

    USATSI_19774982-scaled.jpg
     
    Georgia is looking to complete college football’s first three-peat since Minnesota did it from 1934-36. (Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)

    Scenario 1: Georgia, Washington, FSU and Texas win.

    1. Georgia (13-0)
    2. Michigan (13-0)
    3. Washington (13-0)
    4. Florida State (13-0)

    5. Texas (12-1)

    Obviously, this one is as straightforward as it gets.

    Scenario 2: Georgia, Washington, FSU and Oklahoma State win.

    1. Georgia (13-0)
    2. Michigan (13-0)
    3. Washington (13-0)
    4. Florida State (13-0)

    5. Ohio State (11-1)

    I take it back: This one is even more straightforward.

    Scenario 3: Georgia, Washington, Louisville and Texas win.

    1. Georgia (13-0)
    2. Michigan (13-0)
    3. Washington (13-0)
    4. Texas (12-1)

    5. Ohio State (11-1)

    As a 12-1 conference champ, Texas gets the nod over Ohio State.

    Scenario 4: Georgia, Washington, Louisville and Oklahoma State win.

    1. Georgia (13-0)
    2. Michigan (13-0)
    3. Washington (13-0)
    4. Ohio State (11-1)

    5. Florida State (12-1)

    This is the only of the 16 scenarios where I have Ohio State making it, and it requires a perfect storm. The Buckeyes need both the ACC and Big 12 to knock themselves out, opening the door for a conference to get two berths. Which means they also need Oregon to lose.

    Scenario 5: Georgia, Oregon, FSU and Texas win.

    1. Georgia (13-0)
    2. Michigan (13-0)
    3. Oregon (12-1)
    4. Florida State (13-0)

    5. Texas (12-1)

    The committee has consistently placed one-loss Oregon above one-loss Texas despite the Horns arguably owning a better resume; so no reason to think that changes if the Ducks beat a 12-0 opponent in their last game. I even have them passing undefeated FSU.

    Scenario 6: Georgia, Oregon, FSU and Oklahoma State win.

    1. Georgia (13-0)
    2. Michigan (13-0)
    3. Oregon (12-1)
    4. Florida State (13-0)

    5. Washington (12-1)

    It’s possible the committee would consider keeping the Huskies in the top four given they’d still likely have four Top 25 wins (Oregon, Arizona, Oregon State and Utah). But, I’ll believe they leave out a 13-0 team when I see it.

    Scenario 7: Georgia, Oregon, Louisville and Texas win.

    1. Georgia (13-0)
    2. Michigan (13-0)
    3. Oregon (12-1)
    4. Texas (12-1)

    5. Washington (12-1)

    Another tough call at No. 4, especially given Texas would have to move up three spots, but the Horns would be a conference champ and the Huskies would not.

    Scenario 8: Georgia, Oregon, Louisville and Oklahoma State win.

    1. Georgia (13-0)
    2. Michigan (13-0)
    3. Oregon (12-1)
    4. Washington (12-1)

    5. Ohio State (11-1)

    This is the one scenario where I could see the Pac-12 getting two teams in. Washington’s resume would be superior to Ohio State’s.

    Scenario 9: Alabama, Washington, Florida State and Texas win.

    1. Michigan (13-0)
    2. Washington (13-0)
    3. Alabama (12-1)
    4. Florida State (13-0)

    5. Georgia (12-1)

    Every scenario from here involves Alabama knocking off Georgia, and they’re all messy. But in none of them does undefeated FSU get left out. Also, Alabama moving all the way up to No. 3 would render its head-to-head loss to Texas moot.

    Scenario 10: Alabama, Washington, Florida State and Oklahoma State win.

    1. Michigan (13-0)
    2. Washington (13-0)
    3. Alabama (12-1)
    4. Florida State (13-0)

    5. Georgia (12-1)

    Same.

    Scenario 11: Alabama, Washington, Louisville and Texas win.

    1. Michigan (13-0)
    2. Washington (13-0)
    3. Alabama (12-1)
    4. Texas (12-1)

    5. Georgia (12-1)

    Texas vs. Georgia would be an absolutely maddening debate, but I again default to the conference champion. Especially since Texas won at Alabama.

    Scenario 12: Alabama, Washington, Louisville and Oklahoma State win.

    1. Michigan (13-0)
    2. Washington (13-0)
    3. Alabama (12-1)
    4. Georgia (12-1)

    5. Ohio State (11-1)

    Georgia over Ohio State is not much of an open-and-shut case.

    Scenario 13: Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Texas win.

    1. Michigan (13-0)
    2. Alabama (12-1)
    3. Oregon (12-1)
    4. Florida State (13-0)

    5. Georgia (12-1)

    Now, both one-loss Alabama and one-loss Oregon enter the picture. Georgia may claim to be better than Oregon, but Georgia would not have just beaten a 12-0 team.

    Scenario 14: Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Oklahoma State win.

    1. Michigan (13-0)
    2. Alabama (12-1)
    3. Oregon (12-1)
    4. Florida State (13-0)

    5. Georgia (12-1)

    Same FSU-Georgia debate. Same result.

    Scenario 15: Alabama, Oregon, Louisville and Texas win.

    1. Michigan (13-0)
    2. Alabama (12-1)
    3. Oregon (12-1)
    4. Texas (12-1)

    5. Georgia (12-1)

    Same as Scenario 11, just with a different Pac-12 team.

    Scenario 16: Alabama, Oregon, Louisville and Oklahoma State win.

    1. Michigan (13-0)
    2. Alabama (12-1)
    3. Oregon (12-1)
    4. Georgia (12-1)

    5. Ohio State (11-1)

    Basically, if Georgia loses Saturday afternoon, it better root like heck for Louisville that night.

    All told, here’s how often each team gets in:

    • Michigan: 16
    • Georgia: 10
    • Washington: 9
    • Oregon: 8
    • Alabama: 8
    • FSU: 8
    • Texas: 4
    • Ohio State: 1

    image.png.e5a80c9bf4c2476c6c353c7685cb86ff.png

    Scenarios where they have Texas in:

    image.png.9a50498aedc8aae9b44e296e2339d3ba.png

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    +

    image.png.fd7dc0ef979920d2cc242d4b90b6f845.png

    +

    image.png.2d564a6fb2ba0f22fc932a2e0bb7ba0d.png

     

     

     

    Pretty sure the writer came out and acknowledged that it was an error to have Bama jump Texas in 2 of the scenarios.

  2. 15 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

    Other than one small nit (addressed in a minute), I agree.  Prior to last Friday/Saturday's games, it's clear that the committee thought Oregon's resume was superior to ours.  Both teams pummelled their opponent at home, but Oregon played a tougher team (Oregon State > Texas Tech).  They are not going to jump us ahead of Oregon tomorrow night.  When it comes to conference championship games, an Oregon win over Washington will be seen as superior to a Texas win over Okie State.  Same story.  They will not move us ahead of Oregon.

    The only way we will move ahead of Oregon is if Oregon loses.  (That's my nit -- "And nothing will change in between now and Sunday in our favor."  Not nothing, but nothing if Oregon wins.)

    True, but a Wash win closes that door.  We will be ahead of Oregon but it won't matter unless one of the others loses.    

  3. 4 minutes ago, JBJ said:

     

    Texas has the best resume out of any 1-loss team. SoS, game control, wins over top 50, all solidly in our favor. I feel like this needs to be shouted from the roofs.  If we get bucked for another team it won't be because of anything to do with our resume.  It'll be because the committee thinks another team is better than us enough that it overcomes all that.

    This is where I get hung up.  "Texas has the best resume out of any 1-loss team."

    I think most objective people think this.  But it doesn't matter what we think.  What matters is what the committee thinks.  And they clearly disagree.  And nothing will change in between now and Sunday in our favor.

  4. 2 minutes ago, JBJ said:

    Current rankings don't matter.  We've seem the committee buck previous rankings several years now.  When they actually seriously start discussing who is in or out, things will change.

    Texas has the best resume out of any 1-loss team. SoS, game control, wins over top 50, all solidly in our favor. I feel like this needs to be shouted from the roofs.  If we get bucked for another team it won't be because of anything to do with our resume.  It'll be because the committee thinks another team is so better than us enough that it overcomes all that.

    I am curious to hear examples.

  5. 2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

    Rooting for Bama does almost nothing for us if Washington, Michigan, and FSU win. Holding out hope that we'll get placed over Bama in that scenario is setting yourself up for disappointment. That is an extremely low likely scenario. You need to root for Oregon as well.   

    I don't think you are listening to yourself.

    If Oregon wins the Pac 12, you would have to believe the committee would DEVALUE Oregon's win against a Top 5 team and let Texas pass them with a lesser win or Bama vault both of them with a win over Georgia.  The committee has boxed itself in, but it is not plausible for Texas and Bama to vault Oregon because they are tied at the hip.  And Oregon has their best win in front of them.

  6. 2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

    UW win is bad for us. We should be rooting for Alabama (higher margin is better) and Oregon winning (by a little). If both win, we have a decent shot as there will be two spots available. I think the committee would be loathe to leave out the SEC champ, and ultimately that plays in our favor as the only team to beat said champ. If only one of Oregon or Alabama wins, I think we are almost certainly out (and Michigan and FSU win). 

    If the winners are:

    1. FSU, Washington, Bama, Michigan, and Texas - the playoffs are FSU, Washington, Bama and Michigan (Undefeated Washington gets in and Bama gets in over us on the strength of what have you done for me lately)

    2. FSU, Oregon, Georgia, Michigan, and Texas - Playoffs = FSU, Oregon, Georgia, and Michigan (our best win loses and Oregon gets a great win over Washington)

    3. FSU, Oregon, Bama, Michigan, and Texas - Playoffs = FSU, Michigan, Bama, and Texas. (Bama gets in for defeating reigning champs, we get in over Oregon for having defeated the team that beat the reigning champs)

    Rooting for Washington 100% locks out a spot that we could take. Rooting for Georgia 100% locks out a spot (although probably not one we can take) AND diminishes our best win if it comes down to a beauty contest. 

    I am not sure how you can argue that Oregon winning would "open up a spot."  It is very clear that one of the spots at this point is reserved for the Pac 12 champ.

    Obviously, we need to root for Bama, Iowa and ESPECIALLY LVille.  If LVille wins, we are in.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  7. 1 minute ago, Red Five said:

    Unlikely, but not moo. Our best chance there would be if Bama beats Georgia, and they have to choose two of Oregon, Texas, and Bama. 

    Simple fix is just to continue to pick Oregon.  You won't have to answer the question of the Texas head to head win.  You guys are expecting way too much out of these morons.  

  8. 11 minutes ago, D3zii said:

    IMG_2748.thumb.jpeg.618dcceedee753d233e3ad317d927568.jpeg
     

    so tell me again Oregon is in front of Texas and Alabama because of the “eye test” ?? Well if that’s the case you have to place Texas in front of them based off the last weeks game correct?? 
     

    cause going off resume there is no way you place Oregon in front of Texas and there best win is Oregon State and before that it was Texas Tech who they had to come back from and Texas just beat by 50. 
     

    someone make it make sense 

    The time to ask these questions was weeks ago when the committee placed us behind Oregon.  The writing was on the wall then.  It's moot now.

  9. 2 hours ago, Jewish Wang said:

    No oddsmaker would have us ahead of Bama

    Team  DraftKings FanDuel  BetMGM Caesars  bet365
    Georgia +240 +230  +225 +240 +225
    Michigan +260 +280 🔥 +275 +240 ❄️ +240
    Ohio State +600 +500 +500 +700 🔥 +500
    Oregon +600 ❄️ +650 +700 +700 +650
    Alabama +700 +750 +700 +750 +700
    Texas +1300 ❄️ +1400 +1400 +1400 +1400
    Washington +1500 🔥 +1300 +1200 +1400 🔥 +1200
    Florida State +3000 +3000 +3300 🔥 +1400 ❄️ +2800
    Louisville +15000 +17000 🔥 +10000  +10000  +15000
    Iowa +100000 +100000 +50000 +200000 🔥 N/A

    Likely a function of what would happen if they made the playoff 

  10. 8 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

    I do like how the messaging has landed on voucher scam.  Because that is what it is, and our bitch ass governor ain't walking away from trying to make it happen.  

    Greg may need to ABORT.

  11. 16 minutes ago, troph said:

    If he came back and Arch received meaningful back up snaps (means we would have to our teams away) then Arch could start as a sophomore with previous game experience. That’s probably the best outcome we could hope for. 

    Idk man

    i say let the best quarterback play

    under your hypo, we probably get one year of arch.  Is that best for Texas?

  12. 16 minutes ago, Jimmy Two Times said:

    Means we comfortably handled Alabama in Tuscaloosa and largely took care of business against every other team with one slip up. Sure we'd like more style points but damn how can folks be this miserable about a team with a live chance of making the CFP.

    It’s a couple of things.  Performance relative to expectations.  Realistic predictions about our playoff chances, knowing an important metric is how you finish the season.  

    We should all be ecstatic with the result this year, but expectations were high.  Talent level is high.  We are back to justifiably holding this program to national championship levels.

    Sark’s management Oklahoma and on leaves a lot to be desired. 
     

     

  13. 6 minutes ago, WBT said:

    How is Washington 5th with the best win among the undefeateds?

    There is no justification having Washington behind at the very least (especially) Michgan...Florida St and Georgia.  Georgia and Fla St have one win against a current top 25 CFP team.  Michigan has ZERO.  

    Then, if you are going to rank Oregon as the top 1 loss team presumably having the best loss...that means you have rated Washington that much higher than Oklahoma which is No. 12 to overcome every single metric that Texas (AND ALABAMA) HAVE over Oregon.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  14. 10 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

    No, Oregon has played a shitty schedule with one win over a team with a winning record. When the season is over, Texas and Alabama will have much better resumes than Oregon.

     

    Why do you keep saying this?  The committee obvious disagrees because Texas objectively has the better resume NOW and they put Texas behind Oregon.  Why does that change with the remaining schedule?  

  15. 21 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

    If Alabama, Oregon, and Texas all end up at 12-1. Texas and Alabama will be ranked ahead of Oregon in the final CFP rankings.

    Curious the logic here, considered Oregon plays a tougher schedule than us to end the season.  
     

    Is it just the belief that the committee will refuse to leave out Bama, and can’t justify putting us behind them?

  16. 23 minutes ago, Sir Ulrich said:

    The committee is using eye test to rank right now over resume. The only two games we've played since rankings started didn't involve our starting QB. If QE comes back and we roll I think we'd have a good chance of jumping Oregon. 

    How?  Oregon would have beaten No 12 Oregon St and No 5 Washington.  They are already ahead of us and their schedule on the way out is harder. 

    The committee always contradict themselves. Why is OSU #1? Due to the wins. So, why isn’t Texas or Bama ahead of Oregon? A better loss > better win/worse loss?

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