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  1. I’ve read a lot of people providing high-level thoughts that La Tech is “worse than Maryland” and that the game should be an easy one. But I haven’t seen any actual write-up analysis of the game. So I bit the bullet last night and watched La Tech/LSU from last season. Below are my thoughts, with GIFs of some representative plays from that game. Note: to the extent occurrences in the La Tech/LSU game were outliers, it is the only game of La Tech’s that I watched from last year. So I am wholly basing my opinions on that totally inadequate sample size. With that said, let’s get to it. What to expect from La Tech’s offense? Offensive Coordinator and Scheme: La Tech’s OC is Todd Fitch. Fitch has been with Skip Holtz since 2007 at ECU almost continually, although he had a three-year stopover in Boston College from 2012-2015 before reuniting with Holtz at La Tech in 2016. Fitch was passing game coordinator at Iowa State in 2004 under Dan McCarney, where he coached true freshman Bret Meyer to 7 wins, including a victory over Nebraska. Prior to that, he was an assistant under OC Skip Holtz at South Carolina when Lou Holtz was head coach. Offensively, Orlando’s dime will get a LOT of run this game. La Tech runs 4 wide almost every play. They sometimes bring in an insert-back, but almost never have a true TE in on a play. They’d prefer to motion a big WR into the box to help block than to substitute in a TE. La Tech runs no huddle, but their tempo is not anywhere near what most of the teams in the Big XII run. They are not an air raid team. They are more of a traditional spread team. They will attack with bubble screens, WR screens, RB screens, inside zone and traditional spread passing concepts. This will be a good tune up for what we’re going to see out of Neal Brown’s West Virginia on October 5. Offensive Position Players: The first thing that jumps off the page when looking at La Tech is their experience. Across the offense, every single one of their starters is in their third, fourth, or fifth years. Their QB is a RS Sr., and their line goes RS Sr., RS Sr., RS Jr., RS Sr., RS Sr. Texas will not be able to count on La Tech to “lose” the game. La Tech does not blow assignments or commit dumb penalties. They are assignment sound—they just aren’t extremely talented. Quarterback: La Tech returns its starter, J’mar Smith (8), from last year. He is very good at throwing La Tech’s timing routes, and they throw a LOT of them. Like the original spread offenses of the late 90s/early 2000s, La Tech relies on its timing route passing game to generate yards. It does not, generally, try for chunk yardage. La Tech is content to bite off bite-sized yardage through inside zone and screens to work its way down the field. Smith is also decent at throwing intermediate routes to the middle of the field He will buy time with his feet, but he is not a scrambler and generally does not even look to run. Smith struggles pushing the ball downfield with any accuracy. Here's an example: And another example: Smith struggles even more when he has to throw while on the run. Running Backs: La Tech has two main backs—Dancy (23) and Tucker (22)—who are virtually identical. They are shortish scat backs like we see a lot of in the Big XII. Both are good at running inside zone. Here's an example: Here's another example: Both are also used a lot in the passing game and are effective there. Wide Receivers: La Tech’s wide receivers are a mixed bag. There are times where they make fantastic plays, and there are times where they cannot even catch the ball. Their best WR last year was Hardy (who wore 6 last year but apparently is wearing 89 this year?). He is very good and will be a good test for Jalen Green. Notice here that they use WR bubble motion to bring the safety up while their X and Z run right past their defenders. Their only other returning receiver is Alfred (4), who shows up on tape as doing a good job of getting open, although he struggles with catching the ball in traffic. Defensive outlook against La Tech’s Offense: Don’t expect Texas’ defense to have a field day on Saturday. In fact, don’t count on them to be able to reliably pressure the QB at all. Almost everything La Tech does is predicated on timing routes and WR screens. The key is to focus on fundamental football and limit those plays to minimal yardage. La Tech will bail you out by having a WR drop the ball, and they’ll punt and get off the field. If Orlando gets frustrated and starts bringing the house, it could open up big plays for La Tech. Aranda got very aggressive at times against La Tech and pinned his D’s ears back. But La Tech did a nice job of always responding with a timely RB screen for chunk yardage. With that said, La Tech WILL turn the ball over—especially after completing a short pass play when their WRs try to do too much. Orlando’s unit has to be ready to capitalize on those opportunities. What to expect from La Tech’s defense? Defensive Coordinator and Scheme This is a harder breakdown, because La Tech swapped DCs last year. Their new DC is Bob Diaco, who you’ll last remember as a defensive analyst for OU last year when we played them in the cotton bowl and OU’s LB coach when we played them in the Big XII Championship (Diaco was promoted after Stoops was fired). Diaco was fired from OU at the end of the season. Most importantly, you’ll remember Diaco as the coach who invented the fake rivalry between UConn and UCF called the “Civil Conflict,” which UCF refused to recognize (including leaving the “rivalry trophy” on the field after winning the game. Historically, Diaco runs an odd front defense. Ideally, his nose guard will line up in a zero technique and two gap the center, and his ends will two gap the tackles. We’ll see if Diaco has the personnel to do that against Texas. However, La Tech’s current online roster presents as if Diaco will be running a 4-2-5 nickel defense (listing two DEs, two DTs, and two LBs). Defensive Position Players: La Tech’s defense will be experienced. Like their offense, the defense will feature starters who are all in or past their third year. Defensive Line: La Tech’s defensive line last year was boom or bust. But when they boomed, they were very booming. That line loses its two players (45—Ferguson and 99—Garner). Ferguson was a second day pick at the NFL draft. Both were replaced by upperclassmen. It’s tough to figure out what they’ll be this year against the run, given those two losses and the possibility of moving to an odd front. But last year, La Tech’s DL held up well even against a big OL in LSU. LSU was intent to run on La Tech, but La Tech held their own against LSU’s rushing attack. When they faced obvious passing situations last year, the DL’s pass rush was good. Linebackers: Again, assuming last year is an indication, expect this year’s LBs to be good in run fits. This is especially true when La Tech’s safeties assist with run responsibilities. Their strong safety, Jackson (10), jumps out on film. He plays the run like Brandon Jones. Defensive Backs: Their run defense is solid. But the DBs last year did a poor job of holding up in coverage for any length of time. The DBs often lost receivers in space. In fact, La Tech was way better at covering grass than it was at covering wide receviers. DBs lose receivers in space. Way better at covering grass than covering people. Here's an example: Here's another example: Conclusion: This is a great tune up game against a team that will have inferior talent but will not simply give the game away. Texas will have to come prepared, because La Tech is too experience to just roll over and give up. La Tech played LSU close last year in Baton Rouge (La Tech was within three points in the fourth quarter, battling back from being down 14 early in the game). If Texas plays sound assignment football, they should be able to handle La Tech. The -20.5 point spread seems pretty generous to me, but I’d obviously be thrilled for Texas to cover that, because it would really bode well for the team this year. But if Texas isn’t focused on the game and is looking ahead to LSU, this could be an uncomfortable night reminiscent of some squeakers from last season. And if Texas’ defense is too focused on making a splash play, La Tech’s sound fundamentals could lead to some frustrating extended drives.
    1 point
  2. Ian Boyd actually wrote a really good article the bot posted on the fall camp thread, and I started to write a response and then realized it got way too long, so I decided to make a thread to discuss. A lot of people on here and elsewhere have been asking about Texas' run D this year, and it seems like many are worried we'll drop off in that area in 2019. A lot of national pundits have lazily thrown out the stat that we lost 8 starters and 70+ percent of "production," however much of that "production" represented weaknesses in our defense that good offensive coaches could easily exploit. Overall, we were actually pretty good against the run last year, finishing 33rd in the country in adjusted line yards per Football Outsiders (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaadl/2018). However, Orlando's defenses are generally elite against the run and 2019 was a big drop off from Orlando's previous two years, where he finished 2nd and 17th. More than anything, the dropoff was personnel related. I'm going to focus on the reasons why that drop off occurred and highlight how this year's team can use the Dime package, to get lighter, faster, better in coverage, and most importantly, improve against the run. Below is a picture of our Dime package with Overshown (and possibly Brown) at Joker and Foster at Nickel. In this scenario, Ossai will be the Rover, though he and Overshown could switch positional alignment and responsibilities pretty seamlessly. With Foster at Nickel and Overshown or Ossai on the other edge, you're basically using a 3-4 even though you're in dime. Foster would probably be considered the best 3-4 OLB in the conference, besides Ossai, if he actually played that position. He was unbelievable in the run game and blitzing last year. I remember one play against OU where he got under their LT, who was drafted in the third round, and just drove him back like he was on skates even though Foster was giving up 100 lbs in that matchup. I think Overshown will be similar, even if not quite as good. Ossai showed really impressive off-ball LB ability in the spring game, and his performance against UGA makes me think he's just a flat-out great football player. I think he'd be fine with run fits at Rover. Combine that with the ability to have Ossai and Overshown essentially switch between Rover and Joker without tipping it off pre-snap, and Orlando has a counter for someone like Gundy who may try to isolate Ossai in coverage over and over. If you have to take one of Ossai or Overshown off for Dele, then I think the defense gets quite a bit worse against many opponents. Dele might be one of our best 11 against LSU if they revert back to the power scheme they ran last year, but against most Big 12 opponents, he'll never get a chance to play the run inside the box because guys like Gundy will spend the whole game picking on him like they did to Wheeler last year. Regardless, Dele coming along this fall has been a big (and hopefully true) development. He gives us added versatility against teams that decide to line up in extremely heavy fronts to counter our Dime package and I think he would likely still be an upgrade over Wheeler, even if he probably can't hold up for a whole game against most Big 12 opponents. The 4 biggest weak spots in our defense last year were Hager, Wheeler, and the Nickel (usually Locke, but Josh Thompson played there some too and absolutely killed us). Our NT spot with Nelson and Wilbon was generally good against the run, especially when teams like Georgia and USC tried to attack us more traditionally, but when the spread gurus of the Big 12, like Gundy and Holgo, played us they became a liability. Utilizing the Dime package will allow us to strengthen all four of those spots and make it much harder for offenses to identify weaknesses and exploit them endlessly in the run game. The switch from Hager to Graham will be huge. Both Graham and Roach have a ton left to show on the field before they live up to the hype they've been getting this offseason, but the two of them will be better against the run combined than Omenihu and Hager were last year. Gundy ruthlessly picked on Hager and Bimage (as the play side DE) and Wheeler (as the weakside LB) last year and ran Outside Zone over and over. Hager and Bimage were too small to set a hard edge and that extra space meant that Wheeler couldn't make it to the ballcarrier as an unblocked weakside LB. We might as well have been playing 11 on 10. The other problem was that while people generally consider Nelson and Wilbon to be good against the run, their lack of athleticism really hurt the in Orlando's scheme at time last year. While neither would get moved off the ball much, Orlando's run D involves a lot of slanting and penetration. Orlando prefers to counter a run heavy team by betting he can create enough negative plays to kill drives, even if that leads to some chunk runs by the opponent. Wilbon and Nelson's lack of quickness meant they couldn't slant into gaps that someone like Poona, or hopefully Coburn/Ojomo, can this year. As an example, below is a play where OSU ran outside zone successfully against us that highlights many of our personnel deficiencies from last year. I could've found about twenty other plays to show, but wading through OSU film to find a good example was making me want to punch a hole in my screen. On this play, Wheeler was actually the strongside LB, but his poor play still shows why our 2019 D has so much room for improvement. Wheeler, as often happened, was way too slow to read the play and made the RG's job easier than winning a spelling bee against a room full of Sooners. Now, watch Bimage run himself so far out of the play that he looked like he was sprinting to the sideline for a sub. Not every play had Bimage and Hager looking that bad, but they were generally getting driven way out of the play and failing entirely to set an edge. Wilbon does ok on this play, but there were many others where he and Nelson were too slow to get play side and allowed a clean running lane. Look at 27:54 for an example of this. Finally, watch how Locke plays patty cake with the 190 lb slot receiver and then try to guess a side to jump, instead of stacking and shedding his man, so he could make the play. If you compare this to our personnel in 2019, either Ossai or Overshown should be better at speeding over from the backside than Wheeler in 2018 and will likely also be better at diagnosing the run plays earlier than Wheeler did. Graham should hold the edge better than Hager did last year and Coburn/Ojomo should be more effective slanting on run plays than Nelson/Wilbon were. I expect Foster will be a pretty huge improvement in the run game, and I think he'll be an improvement in coverage from the Nickel as well. He just has a better sense for the game than either Locke or Thompson did last year. There's no doubt that CB is more of a question mark than last year, and McCulloch could struggle in his first year at ILB, however, even if a few of our new starters struggle, we likely improve at more positions than we downgrade, and the defense overall should have less obvious weaknesses for good offensive coordinators to attack.
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