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closetohumping

Nfl betting 2020

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Posted (edited)

Gut reaction, I think I like the Patriots under and Green Bay over.  The only team I've actually bet on is Pittsburgh.  I think the Steelers are the most undervalued team on the board.  Their defense was really good last year (#3 DVOA), which was overshadowed by how terrible their offense was.  If a healthy Big Ben makes the offense just slightly above average that's a pretty good damn team.

Pitt Over 9.5 +120

Correlated if a year of film on Lamar Jackson causes even a bit of regression for that team, the divisional odds are just way too skewed.

Pitt Win AFC North +400

One other team I like but haven't pulled the trigger on...are we sure the AFC East isn't going to just completely suck.  And if it does, doesn't the Dolphins at 7 or 8/1 seem like it's pretty reasonable.  I haven't bet it because their schedule is brutal.  They have the NFC and AFC West and are stuck with home games against Rams, Seahawks, Chiefs and play at San Francisco...it gets very hard to find 9-ish wins, even with those juicy odds looming.  I will almost certainly be on their over 6.5 at some point.

Edit: Forgot to add, the Steelers didn't have any Covid opt outs...they're like the anti-Patriots.

Edited by VolenteHawk

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