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Certifiably Surly
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About VolenteHawk

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  1. Meh, I made a bunch of money on the little league world series. It all spends the same.
  2. Yeah, he didn't play week 1, and they were quite protective of him in weeks 2-3...but there were some designed runs against BYU, so I'd expect the full playbook. KU has had a lot of success running the ball but haven't had a test like UT's front yet. If we get one dimensional, it could be a long day. The defense appears to be better (though better from abysmally bad last year) but is similarly relatively untested and has relied on forcing turnovers...they don't really have the horses to be a lockdown unit. I'm thrilled with where we are in the rebuild, but we haven't really shown the ability to hang around with teams full of athletes...albeit that was mostly without Daniels. I'm going to go ahead and get liquored up at the tailgate, just in case I need the numbing.
  3. This is interesting. HUGE disclaimer that I'm not handicapping baseball at all this year...real life getting in the way. I hope to be back by the playoffs. That said, this sorta thing is how I think about baseball betting, so I'll quibble with it for the sake of discussion and without putting enough work in to know if I'm right or wrong. I like that he's using xFIP to evaluate pitchers, it's the best opponent/field neutral metric we have. Where I'd quibble is why he needs full game run lines and full game pitching stats at all. You can presumably build a 1st inning probability model as he has here and keep it agnostic of the full game numbers, it's simply "is the probability different enough from the betting odds to make a bet?". I don't want the noise of two pitchers that are theoretically exactly the same in the first inning but different in the 6th b/c one is a veteran and gets more rope and one is young and gets pulled at the first sign of trouble. The full game market efficiently accounts for this, I just don't know why I'd care to include it when a simpler calculation would suffice. I'd also wonder about first time through the order vs literal first inning stats, but if he put this much work in what he landed on has to have performed better on a back fit or maybe they're the same and larger sample size wins. The hitting side is a little more obvious, wRC+ is a fine choice and first 4 or 5 hitters are fine with me depending on what back fits better. I'd also say that if he's seeing inefficiency early and that motivates making bets before he knows lineups then something about the market has changed/adjusted. I was never a big first inning guy, but the guys I know that are used to wait until nearly first pitch b/c they were always betting yes and betting no was a bit of a square side. You'd pretty literally never lay favorite juice on a yes and also pretty literally never bet a no, so this is probably a reflection of the exotic markets getting more efficient as bettors get smarter.
  4. My hitting...yikes. I don't want to panic too early, but it's time to sacrifice a chicken.
  5. I got booted at the beginning, so I probably looked offline for a couple minutes. Was able to queue up the homer Witt Jr pick, though.
  6. No, it’s been moved. That’s the only reason I checked this thread.
  7. You need to add 2 now, I’m out. I presume we’re all grown ass adults with schedules. Changing day of is sorta bullshit. It’s $50, so who gives a fuck, I get it…but I actually moved real life shit to draft tonight.
  8. I can’t do Wednesday. Have a good season, guys.
  9. Obligatory condescending douchey "I know you're not used to this but elite 8 Sunday games are earlier" from a semi-butthurt Kansas fan. Championship game for my boy's tournament is at 6 in BFE (Dripping), but we'll almost certainly not be playing in it. If they bump their heads, I may be autodraft.
  10. Sunday evening works for me. Daytime would be tougher but I can't tell you when, cause select baseball.
  11. My first one was an '08 Infiniti that I purchased new on October 24th (which I wouldn't remember except...). Picked up a buddy the next morning, headed downtown to hit our tailgate. It ran in the Manor garage for the entirety of Texas/Oklahoma State. My wife doesn't know about this or I could be on a "Husbands and the stupid shit they do" thread somewhere.
  12. I'm in. Once the Royals start 2-13 it's really all I've got.
  13. The defensive plan was to run KU off the 3 point line (which to be fair worked they were just 4-11) and not allow easy baskets or transition and make KU finish through contact. I suppose muddying it up when you're less talented then, when the opponent is in the double bonus the last 45 minutes b/c you schemed to play that way, shrugging your shoulders and blaming the officials won't get you fired...but it's not exactly brilliant coaching.
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