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Posts posted by Bobby_Batronic
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8 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:
It wasn't raining... this is fake.
I knew it wasn’t raining during the crash but thought perhaps beforehand.
Checking the weather on that day reveals 0 precip. Damn. Spoofed on a pilot website.
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AAIB Preliminary Report Highlights
1. Primary Cause – Electrical Power Transfer Interruption (PTI) During Rotation
• During transition from ground to airborne electrical configuration, the aircraft experienced a cascading dual-engine FADEC (Full Authority Digital Engine Control) failure.
• Root cause: Uncommanded bus transfer failure due to arcing in the main power relay box (PRB-A), traced to water ingress during pre-flight GPU disconnection in heavy rain.
• This led to loss of electronic engine control at rotation, resulting in both GEnx engines rolling back to ground idle within 4–5 seconds.
2. Flight Data Record Timeline
• +0:11 sec: Nose gear lifts off.
• +0:13 sec: Sudden engine rollback begins. Thrust reduces from 92% N1 to <27% within 3 seconds.
• +0:16 sec: Master caution + ENG FAIL L/R warnings. FO calls, “Both engines dropping!”
• +0:20 sec: Autopilot and flight control reverts to Direct Mode. Pitch up attitude peaks at 18°.
• +0:25 sec: Aircraft stalls at 186 ft AGL.
• +0:30 sec: Full aerodynamic stall; nose drops rapidly.
• +0:38 sec: Ground impact at 54° nose-down attitude, 174 knots.
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1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:
Good thing we elected somebody who promised no more wars.
We probably won’t bomb them again, because that would be Trump admitting that what he said was bullshit and he doesn’t like to do that.
He got a mulligan with a lot of people that supported him, that were pissed over the bombing. They won’t give him another one.
I think that’s wish casting. Especially if it’s Israel firing up the Bomb Iran playlist. This is and was being spun as the strike ending this particular flare up. It’s not entirely untrue given Iran’s token response, and possible signaling of where that response would strike so as not to actually hit anything. An adult decision on their end imoho.
We’ll see what comes of the new round of negotiations, but the mulligan will end up being limited strikes on whatever remains of the Iranian nuclear program. Boots on the ground or a year long bombing campaign wouldn’t be tolerated. Another hit? Probably so with those objectives, and I wouldn’t be shocked if a link to an assassination attempt was played up for the base.
1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:We’ve also just given our enemies a major look at the capabilities of the B-2 and it’s ordnance and now they know how to build for it in the future.
Always better to have them responding to you than the other way around. I don’t think anyone was surprised that B-2’s could make global strikes with large, precision bomb loads. Especially in non contested air space. They’ve been doing that for years.
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23 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:
We will be bombing Iran in October of next year because they are weeks away having nukes.
It sounds like Iran will be asked to give up all nuclear weapons aspirations and material or the bombing may resume sooner than that.
And I don’t think the Mossad putting out that they wanted to eliminate the Ayatollah was coincidence. Negotiations will probably be held with a big bag of “Or else” sitting in plain sight.
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Well, once you get past the rage bait and actually watch the briefing by the general you learn some interesting facts.
It was 6 MOPs down two ventilation shafts at Fordow. Each weapon was fused specifically for its sequence in the drop, and had a warhead specialized for that sequence. The Iranians had attempted to put concrete lids on both shafts that were removed by the first weapon in each case. The final MOP dropped was an all purpose bomb carried in case of one of the bombers failing to drop for whatever reason, one of the bombs failing to hit the target or failing to detonate.
Primary destruction was accomplished by blast and pressure wave effects, and the follow on B2 crews reported that the site was lit up like daylight possibly indicating that something inside the facility was burning beyond the explosive effects of a bunker buster.
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27 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:
we're not assessing damage by measuring ground height.
No, no. There might be something to this Ty Webb assessment strategy.
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6 minutes ago, Goredho said:
I would say we are in an unprecedented golden age of American propaganda and misinformation. As for entertaining the idea we are being lied to by our institutions, absolutely. Make sure you apply the same standards you want from others to the institutions you choose to put your own faith into and hold them accountable when they engage in obvious bullshittery.
My only caveat being that I think the golden age has been going on longer than any of us would like to to think.
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8 minutes ago, Goredho said:
There’s literally no way to know if the messaging from our government is representative of the truth or more eating the dogs/eating the cats nonsense. All any of us can say is “the information sources I’ve chosen to put blind faith in have led me to believe X.” Maybe Trump’s right, maybe he’s wrong, but nevar forget this quote from our VP:
”The American media totally ignored this stuff until Donald Trump and I started talking about cat memes. If I have to create stories so that the American media actually pays attention to the suffering of the American people, then that’s what I’m going to do.”
Where does that any means to an end attitude toward voter influence end? At cats and dogs in an election year? With strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities amidst sagging approval and horrific headlines? You don't know and neither do I. But what I do know is that a government that is willing to so brazenly mislead its people is not one I personally can put much faith in.
I would suggest that governments have been brazenly misleading their populaces since time immemorial. That’s this administration, and the one before it and so on and so forth. It would behoove all of us to entertain the idea that we are being lied to even when the lies agree with our viewpoints.
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7 minutes ago, B00M said:
You don’t think we can measure the height of the ground in the area before and after the strikes? We can, very accurately. It takes a lot of math to know if we caved the shit in, but thankfully we have computers and shit. Trump doesn’t trust it and I guess you don’t either
That’s not necessarily how mountains and caves work. They may have collapsed the facilities inside without the rock above losing an inch. Or they may have damaged the building inside with pressure and blast eaves without collapsing the excavated spaces. Or they may have just created a big pile of slag on the outside.
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2 minutes ago, bolverk said:
And, yet, they were compliant when a deal was in place. But now that Bibi has revealed his hand that regime change was his intent with Operation Rising Lion, the Iranian regime now knows their days are numbered if they don't get the bomb.
I’m not sure compliance of the “Ima hang onto this weapons grade fuel (or precursor to) just in case” nature is comforting in their hands.
Again, I don’t know how close or not they were. None of us, as has been pointed out in this thread, were up all night worrying about Iranian nukes for years on end.
OTOH, I can’t think of a time when I or most of the world wouldn’t have been overjoyed to find out that they Iranians have given up their nuclear ambitions for good.
They may well be more determined than ever. If so their facilities are at the very least buried and likely damaged to some extent, and much of their military and nuclear program leadership has graduated to fully dead.
We’ll see how it plays out until the next thing for everyone to get hysterical about is served up this week.
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1 minute ago, Brian Fantana said:
There was no way for anyone to be confident in what would happen. These weapons had never been used in a real world operation before. Whatever they thought or didn't think about the structural stability of their facility is entirely irrelevant, moving the material was the only move to make in the face of such uncertainty.
Having any material at all produced at a facility who’s sole purpose was the manufacture of fuel for nuclear bombs be snuck out is kinda damning on its own.
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9 minutes ago, B00M said:
The radar doesn’t lie. We either caved the shit in or we didn’t
It would be impressive if we have the ability to see through severaL hundred feet of rock and bunker concrete from space and make that assessment.
8 minutes ago, bolverk said:This is my concern, dude. Once
we made the decisionIsrael forced us to back out of negotiations by unilaterally and preemptively bombing Iran before talks were complete, which set us on a course to end the program by kinetic means.If we didn't get the job done for whatever reason, we're more likely to continue using force to complete the mission, which means more bombing. That said, if we don't have the intestinal fortitude to drop more bombs, then it was only a half-measure and all for naught.
Moreover, you've kind of convinced the Iranian regime -- if it wasn't already apparent -- that developing a nuke truly is the only path forward to saving your own skin.
The current cease fire an anything that comes from it with regard to Irans nuclear program will make it clear if the attack was just an expense firework show.
The fact that Iran has produced some fissile material at the very least and possibly smuggled it out of Fordow ahead of any attack suggests that they weren’t deterred from the goal of a nuclear weapon before Israel started bombing them.
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2 minutes ago, B00M said:
Isn’t the assessment based on satellite radar that’s accurate down to like a couple inches or better? Like… the fuck?
Signals intelligence means people talk, and we capture the conversations. They’re most certainly talking about the damage to those facilities. The only question is whether they’re being caught out or if they’re making deceptive communications. Add that to other observable means.
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37 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:
Vast portions of this thread are dedicated to the idea that Iranians hid information on their nuclear program from inspectors with the IAEA under the previous agreement despite all audited and reported findings suggesting compliance with the agreement. No substantive proof of their non-compliance as ever been publicly disclosed. Assuming all of this was correct, it would be foolish to believe that Iran isn't sophisticated enough to continue to hide the true state of their nuclear program.
That’s a lot of assuming, and the Israelis have shown both the willingness and ability to hack their systems, track their personnel and lure their leadership into target sites.
All that to say that such absolutism is dangerous.
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7 minutes ago, Goredho said:
I have no doubt that we have a reasonably accurate damage assessment in hand. I’m just not sure it’s in the President's hand, and if it is, if it would be allowed to contradict the result he proclaimed shortly after the attack.
That’s fair. Now take the other view and suggest that SigInt probably picked up someone saying everything is fine, someone who knew they were being monitored, and that someone at DIA decided to leak that in a report because they don’t like the POTUs.
That’s why I said the truth is that the program probably wasn’t destroyed, but was knocked on it ass for a while.
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6 minutes ago, Captainant said:
Just gotta circle back on this for another datapoint - NYT has reported that the pentagon (link to mediaite's story, because I don't have a NYT sub) was literally feeding trump fake attack plans because they were so worried about him leaking on truth social
So, once again, lol at "organizational discipline". Lmao, even.
Our so-called """organizational discipline""" resulted in Iran having plenty of heads up to relocate their nuclear stockpile and us not materially slowing down their ability to produce a bomb. So we spent probably upwards of a couple billion dollars between all the support crew and equipment used, didn't achieve the stated strategic goal, and did it all without congressional approval. Wow what sophistication!!!
I get it. You hate all things associated with the current administration. I made no assessment of our own organizational discipline. You can point out the gaffes with Signal, and I would point out that no one saw the B2 raid coming when it did.
Iran moving what material it had produced isn’t some 4D chess move. It was the obvious thing to do once they realized that their air defenses were useless and that their nuclear sites were targeted. The very fact that they were moved at all suggests the Iranians weren’t as confident in the bomb proof nature of their facilities as many on this board or knew at the very least that they’d have to dig it out.
Supposing that that material did in fact make its way out of Fordow then there is still value in destroying or at least significantly delaying the use of those and other facilities for the foreseeable future. You don’t just throw you hands up and say “Fuck it” if one cow makes it out of the barn.
Lastly, it doesn’t take a lot of creative signals intelligence or satellite imagery to determine if a lot of concrete rebar etc is being ordered, sent to and delivered to places like Fordow or Natanz.
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You have to know that communications are being monitored at all times in the region, most likely everywhere actually, and some higher up asked about the condition of the facility after the strike and the reply was “Everything is perfectly all right now. We’re fine. We’re all fine here now, thank you. How are you?”
Between satellite imagery of the activity around the sites and recovered conversations about the work to be done they’ll know in short order how effective the strikes were. I doubt the Iranians are sophisticated enough or have the organizational discipline to keep it quiet for long.
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2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:
12 in a row. 6 holes, 2 MOPS each plus one or two more at Natanz. Again, very impressive execution. But, to be clear, the public penetration rating for them is 200 feet of earth or 60 feet of reinforced concrete. Being able to penetrate 200 feet of reinforced concrete would be absolutely bonkers. And the MOP definitely can't do that.
I misunderstood. I thought it was 6 down two ventilation shafts.
The JTAC told me 200 feet of reinforced concrete. He either revealed something he shouldn’t have or conflated numbers after being out of the service for a while.
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14 minutes ago, bolverk said:
I'm not sure whether you read the NYTimes article link that was posted above bor what is being reported in other outlets, including cable news, so I'm posting a relevant passage from it where there'sa little more detail:
Current and former military officials had cautioned before the strike that any effort to destroy the Fordo facility, which is buried more than 250 feet under a mountain, would probably require waves of airstrikes, with days or even weeks of pounding the same spots.
American warplanes did hit the same spots at least twice on Saturday. B-2s dropped 12 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs — often referred to as “bunker busters” — on Fordo, and six aboveground entry craters are now visible, according to Brian Carter, the Middle East portfolio manager at the American Enterprise Institute.
But many military bomb experts believed that more than one day of strikes would be needed to complete the job.
I definitely recall reading last week that experts believed it would take several waves of bombings to get the job done. Hopefully, those assessments were wrong, but this maybe wasn't sufficient. Plus, if a lot of the stuff was moved, then well I don't know.
I just take it as a fact that as assuredly as Trump will claim total victory that a news outlet will find someone to say we barley scratched their anchor.
The MOP is designed to penetrate 200 feet of reinforced concrete. It doesn’t explode until it comes to a stop. No mean feat of engineering imoho. So 6 in a row isn’t nothing. I am curious as to how much those holes filling back in after the blast mitigated the penetration of the next bomb.
13 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:Oh, I don't think we were necessarily aiming for a vent shaft or anything like that. But we were definitely aiming to have each pair of bombs follow the other to maximize the overall penetration.
They were definitely aiming for ventilation shafts. And hit them repeatedly.
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18 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:
Dirt is still a very good protector. And when the facilities are buried under hundreds of feet of dirt and rock, even the very best bunker buster is going to have difficulty. There is a reason we used a dozen of these things on the facility Top Gun Maverick style (aiming for the same hole). I recall the initial Israeli assessment was similar to the recent reporting: entrances to the facilities were buried, but the critical material was likely not destroyed. Digging can happen quickly. With modern equipment, it doesn't necessarily take that long to move a lot of dirt. That said, I think the delay caused by this strike is on the order of months. Significant, but not a real long-term impediment.
That suggests that it’s just dirt that needs to be moved. They’re probably going to have to make an in depth assessment of the structural integrity of the buildings underneath even it all looks 5 foot good on the first pass. And it also suggests that none of the equipment inside suffered damage from blast/pressure waves. I recall that the centrifuges, for example, are supposed to be very delicate. Again, if it’s just dirt work then it will be evident based on activity once the tunnels are cleared.
Attacking the ventilation shafts would seem to make a lot of sense. I guess it gives you an extra few feet of penetration, but I’m sure the first thing any bunker designer worth his salt would do would be to put multiple kinks in the routing of those air shafts to deter just such an attack.
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5 hours ago, Brian Fantana said:
I think even the laymen can look at the picture of the facilities bombed by the US and understand that none of them are going to be up and humming in 30-60 days even if it’s just a matter of digging out the tunnels leading to allegedly unharmed delicate nuclear facilities.
If that assessment is true then Iran already has the fuel on hand, is working to create the nuclear device itself and the suggestion that they are/were very close to having a working weapon is valid.
Trump claims total destruction. Unnamed sources alleged to be familiar with the damage assessment say 30 days to the status quo. It would be wise to split the difference and suggest that total destruction did not occur, but that their program has been knocked on it’s ass for some time to come.
Again, activity around those sites in the comes days and weeks will be very revealing about the destruction involved, and first blush leaked battle assessments for the purpose of grabbing headlines won’t be needed.
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9 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:
I haven't seen it mentioned, but Northrop Grumman says the B-2 has a capacity of >40,000lbs. Apparently six of them dropped 12 30,000lb bombs. I guess the >40,000lbs is accurate, but now our adversaries are probably wondering about the true capabilities of all our other assets.
It was mentioned the morning after the strike, and the suggestion is that the published bomb load might be a space available problem and not an actual payload issue problem.
I just hope none of the B2 pilots binged on Taco Bell before the mission brief or Operation Mid Flight Hammer may have gone down.
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19 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:
I am concerned as well that the ease with which the Israelis did their thing is leading people to dream big, up to and including regime change.
I don’t know how old you are, I’m assuming you’re in your 40s or 50s like most of Surly, but I also remember them fucking with oil shipments in the Persian Gulf in the 80s and the West having to escort oil tankers.Now they have drones that are extremely efficient and effective and could fuck with shipping like nobody’s business. They can make this painful for us, and they can force us to use US Navy ships to protect oil shipped from Arab countries, and those Navy ships would be operating in a small area, escorting slow ships. And if they try and shut down the Strait, we have to get involved.
I was very concerned about them shutting down the Strait when this kicked off in earnest. I think that the fact that their regional neighbors gave tacit approval to outright support, and that their global allies could barely muster a strongly worded letter caught them by surprise.
They’re alone in this and risk the ire of not just the west, but China and parts of the world dependent on that oil supply. It is easy to play religious fanatic when no one is lazing your house for a bomb strike. Less so when you can hear clicking of the control fins each night.
I hope they settle for limited, face saving retaliation and then come back to the table with whoever will talk with them. To do otherwise invites total destruction.
I was also thinking about their countless drones and small boats if they were to attempt to block the Strait. Allegedly, Israel effectively hacked and co-opted much of their air defense network in addition to the traditional SAM suppression and avoidance methods. I wonder if their localized drone control could be similarly defeated. I know that flying drones too close to US Navy ships often results in the loss of control there.
That still leaves water born meat bombs. I dunno. We’re gonna find out sooner than later.
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11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:
They very well could be taking their cues from FNC and seeing what sells or what gets viewership up.
I would be okay with the strikes if actual evidence was produced stating that "in the past month or three, Iran sped it up, and they are weeks away from nuclear-tipped missiles".
I would also be slightly more okay with it if it hadn't come literally on the heels of Netanyahu nearly losing his power, and desperately needing to rally the Israeli people behind him.
But this is Iraq in 2002/2003 all over again. And we were preparing for Iraq in late 2002 before it had hit the public conscious - I had friends who were prepping equipment/vehicles/etc. in late 2002 for someplace "other than Afghanistan", long before the administration started pushing things.
There’s no national appetite for a ground war. I doubt there’s one in the WH either.
I don’t know if the Iranians were truly getting close or not.
I suspect the ease with which the Israelis destroyed Iran’s air defenses a few months ago led to people in power dreaming big dreams. Namely a denuclearized and defanged Iran. Maybe even regime change.
10/7 is then used as casus belli.
It will be evident based on activity after the strike as to whether it was effective or not. Time will tell. The question is how Iran responds. I’m sure they will attempt military strikes. I hope they do not choose terror. History says why not both?
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Air India B787 crash
in Daily Texan
Posted
I mean, compared to the news….