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Bobby_Batronic

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Posts posted by Bobby_Batronic

  1. 50 minutes ago, ClubWhatever said:

    I'm not a defense wonk, but I don't like that the military gave the entire playbook for the attack in a PC.  Why?  All we need to know is that they did the deed and the results.  Does anybody need a sales job that they are good and have good stuff?

    More than a few countries took note, and quite a few intelligence staffs are working OT to assess if their own facilities are safe. 
     

    Yes, there is some value in the infomercial approach. 

    • Like 1
  2. 8 minutes ago, Captainant said:

    Nearly the whole stockpile of MOP's has been dropped. Sure would be a kick in the pants if it turned out that they just moved their stockpile prior to the attack since the president had been saber rattling so hard about their nuclear materials

    I’m sure the order for more was processed the instant these dumplings left the depot. 

  3. 9 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

    I don't think the flaps were retracted.  The flaps on the 787 are difficult to see due to the shape of the wing.

     

    The slats can be extended with the flaps retracted. You can’t take off that way, but maybe you could possibly retract them that way on a 787.

    The bus has an auto retract feature on takeoff in Flaps 1+S ( Flaps 1+ slats). Not sure what the 787 does.  

  4. 3 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

    how did two F35's get shot down ? 

    mind you, israel flies an upgraded f35

    You can take it to the bank that the Iranians would be touting pictures of the wreckage of they had shot down an Adir. 

    • Hook 'Em 5
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  5. 1 minute ago, B00M said:

    Excuse me, you hardly need eyes or fingers to fuck goats or strap on an IED. Aloha Snackbar! 

    The pagers tended to be in a pocket at crotch level so there’ll be very limited goat ravaging for some time to come. 

    • Haha 2
    • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
  6. 5 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

    The salvo they launched was quite a bit smaller than what they did earlier. Are they conserving missiles? Are their launch capabilities much degraded? Mixture of both? We likely won’t know from media alone. 

    They only have 1000ish ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel. 850 now, and that’s not factoring losses to stored munitions and missiles on launchers to Israeli air strikes. 
     

    They’re probably not far from bumping up against whatever they consider to be an adequate strategic reserve.  

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  7. 28 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

    +rep for the quote. 

    I do note, that the operative worked for a tyrannical, authoritarian regime that experimented on its own citizens. 

    Doesn’t mean his choice of tactics were wrong in that instance. Just his choice of employer.  

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  8. 30 minutes ago, Captainant said:

     

    Yeah the landing gear controls are up in front near the glass, and flap controls are down next to the throttle - shitty mspaint below

    image.thumb.png.87a99620ee3f90bc73448143ff88789f.png

    No chance for a flap misstep with 10 different detents. Gracious. 

  9. 1 hour ago, Captainant said:

    It does also give some heartburn insofar as the IDF has thoroughly demonstrated their ability to pinpoint target and reduce unnecessary casualities. And yet, they're dropping 2000lb JDAMs into city blocks in Gaza

    “If your quarry goes to ground, leave no ground to go to.”

    -The Operative

    I can only imagine that the Hamas fighters weren’t as as precisely located as the bedroom of an Iranian military leader. They’re in this or under this building is likely the best targeting information they had in a much more fluid situation. 
     

    Hamas’ habit of placing their infrastructure and bases under civilian sites and hospitals makes rooting them out problematic. 
     

    Thats not excusing the destruction of whole city blocks, but perhaps the reasoning behind their choice of munitions and targeting. 

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  10. 1 minute ago, Laxtonto said:

    Some quick things that should now be obvious that people don't seem to really accepting:

    Big Picture

    1. Yesterday was day 61 from when the current administration told Iran they needed a deal in 60 days. All of the other news surrounding the U.S. being against the attacks are just theater. 

    2. If it hasn't been figured out, this was all worked out during the ME trip recently and greenlit as a contingency if Iran did not come to terms. 

    3. Saudi, Jordan, and Quatar are all at worst allowing this to happen with Saudi being the most active providing help on the fringes.

    4. Of the proxies out there that generally bend over backwards to help Iran, only the Yemen Houthies have been vocal about it. Lebanon went out of their way to publicly muzzle Hezbolah regarding providing support to Iran. Note that so far the Houthies have only denounced Israel without mentioning the US.

     

    Iran/Israel conflict itself

    1. Israel has operational control of the skies over Iran and has since the prior set of attacks in Oct 2024. It was rumored to be much more successful vs the current Iranian AD systems that being reported, but it is now obvious that Iran now can not stop the Israeli air force.

    2. Israel has been on the ground in Iran for weeks. The level of infiltration by the Mossad in Iran is something that is being understated. It was a scary wakeup call for Iran when they killed Ismail Haniyeh in July of 2024 in Tehran, but the level of infiltration is well beyond what anyone suspected.

    3. Many of the targets hit were obviously being surveilled right until impact and the number assets needed to do something at this scale is a feat that is very hard to achieve with this level of success. What is more subtle about all of this is that some these assets must still active as they have been used for secondary decapitation strikes, such as the strike on the Iranian AF command. The only way you can pull off that level of strike after the initial element of surprise is over is by having boots on the ground.

    4. Isreal set up and used a similar drone swarm "carrier" approach that Ukraine used to target pre-identified Ballistic missile stockpile and launcher. The Israel intel has been so complete that there is little doubt it came from within. Now, whether was it acquired or given to Mossad is going to be a point on contention, but there is no way this number of targets were acquired, identified, and then equipped with some type of homing/target acquisition beacon could have been done through just basic visual/sigint/sat work. This is probably the most subtle point that is going to get glossed over, but the failure of information security within Iran is the only way some of these targets could ever be identified and being that the variety of easily mobile targets destroyed is so high, this failure has to be complete on a variety of systems, across a variety intelligence/military silos, with support from human assets that work within these silos. 

    5. Mossad is fucking scary... 

    Don’t mess with the Zohan.

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  11. 1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

    None of these events are happening in a vacuum. Since 10/7 Israel has been on an absolute run, and has executed precisely on their objectives (ranging from ethnic cleansing to decapitation of Hizballah and Iranian leadership). They may have the most effective military planners in the world at the moment, at least judging by the skins on the wall. 

    The methodical nature has been something to behold. They’ve largely eliminated Iran’s neighboring proxies and or prevented them from responding, and now they’ve started on the main course.
     

    One wonders if the IAF’s destruction of the Iranian air defense networks and missiles was a warning shot, or merely the first blow followed by a pause to collect itself for the next mission.  

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  12. 34 minutes ago, ClubWhatever said:

    Does that explain leaving the gear down?

    It could if the startle factor precluded their raising the gear as the plane leveled off and power reduced drastically. Or EGPWS procedures could have made that a non factor. Gear and flaps generally stay in the selected position for that and Windshear escape procedures until out of the situation. 

    32 minutes ago, Captainant said:

     

    If you squint hard enough, I can see the rumored extreme failure of maintenance instigating the loss of power during the takeoff, which deploys the RAT and doesn't leave enough hydraulic power to raise the gear. No idea on the flaps being up though

    That’s my problem with that theory. It’s hard to see the RAT. It appears to be down, but it’s not hard to hear it, and it sounds like it’s deployed as the plane flies past. 

  13. 32 minutes ago, CycleTex87 said:

    More likely a human error cause than a latent defect in the aircraft. Though you can't rule out some bizarre combination of events that line up to cause both engines to shut down.

    Some of our 787 pilots have suggested that the altitude window controlling the flight directors might have been accidentally been set close to field elevation not unlike the Emirates 777 that buzzed Dubai at 50 feet and 300 knots. There’s a fleet bulletin out about this issue. Basically, the aircraft will settle at the selected altitude (at or just above field elevation) and selected speed (V2..single engine safety speed) with the engines retarding to maintain speed and altitude and kinda mush back in if the engine response isn’t quick enough. 

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  14. 35 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

    We'll sell 'em one for six dollars all fueled and loaded. We'll even locate the mercenary crew to fly it for them. They will continue to get everything they need from us. Biden didn't stop it; you know Dotard won't.

    And thanks, Bobby, for the info.

    We may step in directly, or, they may go the Top Gun Maverick route and keep dropping the heaviest penetrators they can carry until the hole is deep enough to do the trick. Destroying the surface structures and any entrances and exits to the underground facilities may suffice for now. I think the initial denials were to stave off any immediate retaliatory attacks on US assets while the Iranian military still had first world military means to do so, but it’s clear as day we’ve been neck deep in this, and there’s not a chance that two surprise drone attacks on strategic targets in separate countries using the same tactics were developed independently. 

    Either way, regardless of your politics, heads up and eyes open for the foreseeable future. 

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  15. 56 minutes ago, Pods said:

    Really appreciate the perspective here and had a quick question.

    Is the IAF's inability to pull this off with their own planes a matter of payload, range and/or defeating Iranian air defense?  Combo of all three?

     

    Did you say Mo' Nuke Friday? Because if so, I've got some good news for you...

    image.thumb.png.62ebd3e30219b9a1b2dd34ac907fed27.png

     

    Gonna have to scooch those hands a bit more clockwise. 

    The IAF is able to operate in Iranian airspace with impunity. The issue is payload. The largest US non nuclear bunker buster weighs 30k pounds. That requires a strategic bomber, and the IAF doesn’t have any. 

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  16. 4 minutes ago, Blotto said:

    I wouldn't be so quick to downplay Israel's capabilities. I'm sure they probably have a lot of shit they don't publicly own up to....like nukes, for instance.

    The world will know if they used nukes. 
     

    However, short of actually using those weapons, it’s a matter of logistics. The IAF does not possess the kind of aircraft that can heft the kind of bunker buster needed to penetrate those hardened underground targets. 

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  17. You can take it to the bank that B-2 Spirits were involved if they took out the hardened underground nuclear facilities. Israel doesn’t have the weapons platforms to deliver those kind of bunker busters. 

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  18. 1 hour ago, Basil said:

    Bobby the Pilot, how hard is it to enter a takeoff roll with flaps retracted on a modern passenger jet?  I would think they'd engineer that to be really hard to do.

    Same question when retracting flaps immediately after takeoff.  Isn't there a "yeah, might want to think twice" warning if you order flap retraction at a speed, altitude and configuration that would likely result in a stall?

    Depends on the plane. The Airbus give you a configuration  warning if the flaps are not in takeoff configuration or if they’re not in a configuration matching the flight management computer. 
     

    It doesn’t not, however, care if that is the incorrect flap setting  for the takeoff as long as it’s in one of the valid positions and matches the computer data.

    Similarly, short of triggering the alpha lock I mentioned earlier it doesn’t care if you select the wrong level of flap retraction either.  

    Boeing might be the same. 

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  19. 6 minutes ago, sidis said:

     

     

     

    i just don't understand how an inadvertent flap retraction occurs unless a bug in the electronics causes it in an automated way or unless the pilot is severely drunk. The controls in a 787-8 cockpit are pretty fucking clear.

    23028009943_161c3c29bb_b.jpg

    The Bus has something called alpha lock that prevents flap retraction in low energy or high angle of attack situations. I don’t know if the 787 has a feature like that. 
     

    The 777 off Maui involved selecting one extra notch of flaps up over the intended setting, the quick rush to select the correct setting, an EGPWS warning and an over G in recovery. 

  20. 24 minutes ago, Captainant said:

    It definitely looks like early flap retraction as the cause of the stall, but I wonder what the puff of smoke on takeoff was indicative of a critical loss of power. Jeeze, what a nightmare 

    Could have been dust. Then again, there’s some indication the RAT was out, but that’s based on some grainy pictures and the sound as it went by. 
     

    Inadvertently raising flaps instead of the gear would explain the sudden sink. 
     

    They may have gone straight into the their EGPWS escape procedure which generally doesn’t have the crew change the gear or flap position. That might explain the gear still being down. 
     

    Boeing and RR probably already have a good idea what happened unless it was FOD, electrical failure or fuel contamination.  

  21. 1 hour ago, Paper_jam said:

    I can't really see anything obvious from the engines to suggest bird strike(s), but it could still be the case. My unfounded speculation leans toward a) flap misconfiguration or premature retraction, (which you'd think would almost be impossible on such a modern aircraft), b) takeoff distance or load miscalculation leading to not enough speed to maintain climb once out of ground effect, or c) problem with engine power setting  (autothrottle or TOGA malfunction, or human error setting throttle position for takeoff/climb).

    I'm not a pilot but I have a lot of hours in MSFS...

     

     

     

    Inadvertent flap retraction nearly downed a UAL 777 out of Maui last year. 

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