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hopkinsnhorns

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Posts posted by hopkinsnhorns

  1. 3 minutes ago, Blackcat00 said:

    The economic loss will be much worse than the actual virus itself. 

    It's a three way Mexican stand-off/balancing act.  We have to slow/stop the spread of the pandemic, ensure our health services are not pushed beyond the breaking point, and not kill the economy.  The first two are related, but unfortunately almost all of the steps necessary to address them have a negative economic impact.

    • Like 3
  2. 14 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

    I’ve been flipping between CNN and Fox News. No CR. Fox has been talking all morning about the democratic races. Just laser focused on it. Very little about the markets and almost nothing about the virus except how the dem candidates are handling rallies and their advanced ages. 
     

    I bring it up because it is important to understand that half the country that gets their news from this outlet absolutely do not have any sense or urgency or belief this is a big deal. This matters in regards to social distancing for everyone. 

    And their ignorance is really shown in their stances on social media posts.  Fox News will be responsible for the unnecessary deaths of many, many people by propagating their ignorance and diminishing the dire nature of our situation.

    • Fuck You 2
  3. 8 minutes ago, Caver60 said:

    I work at Natural Bridge Caverns. Spring Break is our biggest week of the year, typically. This year, the majority of Texas school districts are on break this week. The rest will be off next week. The split is pretty even, though, so there will be almost as many people on vacation next week as there are right now.

    We are open, and there are plenty of people here. Not what it would be without the virus running amok, but we are still busy. We are running down 25% or so compared to what we were expecting before this thing got loose. For context, we usually see 2500-4000 people per day during Spring Break. For the life of me I can't imagine why anyone would think "Virus? Sure, I'd be happy to place me and my family in a group of 50 people in a warm wet environment". But they are. 

    We are doing all sorts of planning, as most all of us are. Suspending spending on projects, planning for laying off hourly employees if we are forced to close. Our best advice will probably be for our hourly folks to take unemployment in the worst case scenario. We do offer health insurance, but no way are hourly hourly folks going to be able to afford COBRA if we let them go. I think that CTJ is right, the travel industry is going to get pounded by this thing, and it might take a couple of years for things to settle down.

    At some point soon, tourist destinations will likely start closing for two weeks. As soon as that becomes "industry standard," we will too. I think most places are trying to get Spring Break $ in the bank before choosing to do that.

    I can understand a beach vacation at this point. Stay in a condo, be on the beach away from others. I'd avoid theme parks like the plague, so to speak. And I wouldn't come here, either. I sort of have to, but you shouldn't.

    I love the Natural Bridge Caverns!  I really want to do the adventure tour sometime, though the thought of descending by rope from the top of the cavern is more than a little unnerving.

    • Haha 1
  4. 2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

    Yep.  And we have a neighbor who works for CoA (real work, not artist-in-residence or whatever), and they have plenty of protocols for keeping everything running.    This is not a storm situation where power lines are knocked down or there are water treatment issues or whatever.

      Everybody should have a few days worth of water, etc. in general, pandemic or not, but many are truly in panic mode.  

    Now, imagine if we were to get some sort of natural disaster on top of a COVID19 cluster... that shit would get nightmarish real fast.  Just praying we don't get any supercells in our area any time soon.

  5. 7 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

    Concerning. 
     

     

    In my mind, there is no way this doesn't pave the way to political revolution in Iran.  The younger population was already frustrated with the conservative Muslim leadership, and this wave of deaths of presumably old conservative stalwarts will be the key that opens the door to a new, open, West-friendly Iran.

    • Like 5
  6. 8 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

    Driving into work this morning was the lightest non-holiday/bad weather trip I've ever made. Back of Kingwood to Allen Parkway and Waugh in about 35 minutes.  The interchange at 59 and 10 was wide open.  Barely touched the brakes to exit.  Assuming we keep coming to work tomorrow might look like Christmas morning.

    Fucking wow!

  7. 12 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


    There’s no good answer here. If they can’t pay rent, you both lose. Do you think you’ll find a new tenant right away? Of course not. That’s the problem here - there’s no good path.

    The smart thing would be for lenders to allow for loan payment deferrals of 1-3 months to allow for pandemic interruptions in cash flow. Just extend your mortgage by 3 months.

    We’ll see if lenders take that action. I think it’s better than foreclosure.

    My wife got a message from CapitalOne (they own her car loan) basically offering as much, deferred loan payments if you can't make your note.  I suspect mortgage companies will follow, possibly by Federal mandate.

    • Like 3
  8. Why are people stocking up on water bottles?  Is it just habit from other emergency prep (like a blizzard or hurricane prep)?  This virus doesn't attach utilities.  The risk of a disruption at electric or water has got to be minimal with this thing.  Even if there were a disruption, restoring those would obviously be a priority, and there'd by no logical reason why they wouldn't be restored in short order (no flooding, no downed trees blocking roads, etc.).  I was trying to find a couple gallons of distilled water to use for my wife's CPAP and there was literally nothing left in the water aisle.

  9. What are Italy’s graphs looking like? Any plateau shaping? Hopefully a complete shutdown looks like it does something.

    This thing has infected .00001of it’s total population.

    If there is plateauing, you probably wouldn’t see it for at least a few more days. People were likely exposed before the quarantine and won’t exhibit symptoms for a few days. Same goes for deaths, but about a 2 week lag.
  10. 28 minutes ago, Helobious said:

    Lol. There will be very little if any violence towards the military. Most gun nuts & militia types will throw their weapons down & surrender at the first sign of a challenge, despite how much they say otherwise. There’s a huge difference between a paper target and one with a weapon pointed back at you. 

    If that's the case, then there's a shit load of good old boys just wasting their time on "militia training" weekends all over east Texas.

  11. 50 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

    Perhaps I’m just misinformed but it sure seems the panic is totally out of proportion to the reality

    Every place this thing has spiked has seemingly been able to get it under control in a week or two. There is yet to be a place where cases and conditions are just totally collapsing.... China figured it out, SKorea did it, Italy is starting to get there. Germany and France will as well.

    At the end of the day, what is a couple thousand cases to SKorea, Italy, Germany and France? It’s nothing. Even if we hit 100k here that’s minimal.

    I’m having a hard time reconciling the actual numbers to the panic. This type of panic I’d expect the numbers to be in the millions by now and certainly not curtailing so quickly in highly affected areas.

    I think relative precaution and some cancellations makes sense, self quarantines, etc. I just don’t see the real threat

    I'll take "People who don't understand how exponential growth works for $200".

  12. 52 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

    i think 76% is way too high *IF* hotspots are quarantined.

    i just got a mail that one of my chinese suppliers is restarting manufacturing/production, for delivery mid-late april, which means with normal boat time they have to already be "open" or "gearing up" and they wouldn't do this unless the workers were present, available and cleared.



    Skip to 18:45 for talk on herd immunity.

  13. 1 hour ago, Deej said:

    And every single person on the planet will get this infection. Not sure I believe that. 

    It won't be everybody, but it looks like based on the current R0, it would take about 76+% of the population to have been infected and developed immunity before we see any benefit from herd immunity (which is on par with Mumps, if you want a comparison).  The question is whether we will reach that level of immunity organically (through the spread of the disease), or will a viable immunization be created to boost our general immunity before we reach that point.  I'd say the former is much more likely than the latter.

    • Like 1
  14. If you aren't symptomatic then even if you are infected the you cannot spread it. You can only infect others if symptomatic. 

    I’d love to see the source because I’ve heard numerous reports of people spreading the virus before becoming symptomatic. That was what initially triggered fears among people inclined to examine this new plague back in January when it was still primarily a Chinese problem.
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