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TheYoungHorn

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Posts posted by TheYoungHorn

  1. 1 minute ago, GabrielsHorn said:

    Except that play is absolutely critical. It directly lead to an OSU TD and prevented Texas from getting the ball back with more than a minute to play at the end of the half. To ignore how important it was is absurd, particularly given how well the team played in the second half. 

    Yeah, but we can still stop them. 

    It's easy to go back and retroactively figure things out this way, and we can all do it on two handfuls of plays... But so can the other team. 

    It was a bad call, but the refs didn't force our safeties to live in concrete the entire game. 

    The defensive game plan to try to cover up for the two freshmen corners was picked apart surgically by Gundy and Co., as they diagnosed the loose zone schemes and attacked the lack of force on the edges (something that is impossible with your corners sagging so deep, not to mention they were slow to react and overmatched). 

    How Texas came out and played in the secondary with their two starting corners on the sidelines is why they got in a huge hole, and why they lost that game. 

    Yeah, there were some bad calls, but that is every week in the Big 12. 

  2. Just now, txbroadcaster said:

    Nah he was pulling the jersey as well. It was a hold but I think the official felt it started outside the end zone

    Yeah. Honestly, the safety would have been the better option in hindsight. They are up five, and starting on the other side of the field, if they stay conservative and vanilla, Texas might get the ball back down one score with a lot more time left. Not that Texas would have stopped them. 

  3. To update the discussion earlier on computer models that account for recency/trends, this is from collegefootballpoll: 

    Quote

    OKLAHOMA STATE by 1.04 over Texas (-3) - Saturday, October 27.
    The Cowboys (4-3, 1-3 Big 12) are uncharacteristically reeling from 3 losses in their last 4 games. Conversely, the Longhorns (6-1, 4-0 Big 12) are soaring with 6 straight wins after the inexplicable season-opening loss to Maryland. The computer trend line favors Texas by 5.

     

  4. 3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

    Forced fumbles and interceptions aren't random, and if he actually thinks he can predict them based on yardage and rate stats then that's pretty questionable.

    No. I think his turnover factor is only influenced by sacks and, I believe, passes defended, which he claims are the only quantifiable factor in kept data that correlates to causing turnovers. But you might know better than me how he comes to that number

  5. 13 hours ago, skittlebrau said:

    Had the chance to introduce Adler on stage last night at a Chamber event. He was crisp, clear and to the point. I wish Campaign Adler and Mayor Adler were the same person sometimes.

    He doesn't have the stones to follow through and face the wrath of his current opponent's on a daily basis. 

     

  6. 5 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

    While I agree that it feels wrong to have OSU nearly a 2-1 favorite, I think that there are a few factors that make S&P less predictive here.  For one, Texas seems to be playing better as the season moves on, while OSU seems to be playing worse, and fans naturally bake that in to their evaluations. If last week, Texas lost to Maryland while OSU boatraced Boise, Texas fans would be very pessimistic about this game.  I don't know that S&P factors in recency.

    Also, I don't think that S&P factors in that Iowa State's top QB and their awesome RB were both out for the game against OSU, yet ISU scored 48. Fans know this and that game looks worse to them then it would to a computer.

    Those factors show why the Texas-OSU line differs pretty wildly from S&P.  Based only on S&P you would expect OSU to be favored by 5-6, yet Texas is favored, despite unclear health for Ehlinger.

    Exactly, there is no "trending" model that I know of baked into this particular model. 

    Some of the other computer models do have that, for example the Cosgrove model at collegefootballpoll.com who is .544 ATS this year. And his model has Texas as -1.04 this weekend in Stillwater. 

    For reference, his model also has Texas ranked at #12 (http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/rankings/)

     

  7. 16 hours ago, bigcigar said:

    You’re right...barely. That’s a .3% return. Or with 100 $11 bets, $13 profit.

    How are you performing this season while betting every single game? 

    Predicting college football games is incredibly hard, and while the model is far from perfect, his five factors have done a good job of helping better predict who will win games based on the factors that determine successful football teams from publicly available box-score and play-by-play data. 

    If he was any better at it, I doubt he would be publicly sharing the data with the whole world, as he would be busy using his black box to make a fortune in Vegas. 

    Can we all just admit that Texas has played a lot of bad football this season even while winning almost all of their games, and that his system ranks all of those bad stretches and plays equally as the good football we have also played?

    We can disagree on if the bad stretches of limping to close results against bad teams is some super secret, MENSA-Jedi strategy to sandbag the S&P+ rankings so analytics-obsessed opponents will under rank Texas and Longhorn fans will have a new enemy to direct their hate toward, and not indicative of the team they are (or can be) as a result, but it's easy to see why this particular Texas team does so poorly in this rankings. 

    • Like 1
  8. 19 hours ago, TXSooner518 said:

    why can people not grasp that it is not ranking the past results, but predicting future performance?  LSU should be ranked ahead of UGA and Texas should be ranked ahead of OU. Nonetheless, if they were playing next week on a neutral field, UGA and OU would be the favorites.

    Because people don't know how to read. 

    • Like 1
  9. 3 hours ago, Lobo said:

    I actually use that auto center a couple times a year.  They've got convenient service hours.  They're not the best mechanics in town but they do a good enough job, are eager to help, and don't charge what specialty places do for foreign cars.  

    What in the holy hell is Simon gonna be able to turn that into?  There's no options left.  Self storage maybe based on the looks of all the other ones going up around there.  

    Simon, as I think they are probably doing in other spots across the country is going to have to break up that space and look at specialty retail and other "entertainment" focused tenants.

     

     

     

  10. Of course this is how they are making money. 

    Did any one think any different? The HFT pay a bit to get access to guaranteed money on every single transaction they facilitate. 

    Which, in some ways might be better than you paying a brokerage house a per transaction fee for them also to "sell" your trade to a match-making HFT. 

    Either way, there is someone faster than you, and they are going to skim a bit off (rent-seeking FTW). 

     

  11. Quote

    A reminder: S&P+ is intended to be predictive and forward looking.

    Good predictive ratings are not résumé ratings, and they don’t give you bonus points for wins and losses. They simply compare expected output to actual output and adjust accordingly. That’s how a given team can win but plummet or lose and move up.

    Through seven weeks, the S&P+ rankings are performing well, hitting 54 percent against the spread and 53 percent on the over/under point totals for the year.

     

  12. On 8/7/2018 at 4:18 PM, TheYoungHorn said:

    But as mentioned above, hard to go wrong with Dos Batos. 

    Stopped in recently and they are now making their own flour and corn tortillas. Not sure how long this has been going on, but years ago when I ate lunch there once a week it was definitely not the case. 

     

  13. 1 hour ago, Tex Long said:

    I woulda been happy if MensaTom had kept Gilbert/Mattox, but...

    Briles and Leach have in common in their playcalling that they kept calling the same option play over and over until the oppo stopped it - and then ran the wrinkle/constraint of the same play.

     

    Because when you think about it, simpler is always better. Occam's razor, etc. 

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