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choripan

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Posts posted by choripan

  1. 1 minute ago, immamac said:

    VW and Mercedes not being mentioned by convenience of US based is nice. They are doing really really good work. 

    I agree completely. MB getting level 3 actually on the streets and available to consumers for personal vehicles (contrasted with robo-taxis) is great work.

    I limited the scope to US because it's not something I feel confident enough to speak on with authority. My understanding is that MB would be with or a tiny gap behind GM/Cruise, but I don't want to get "gotcha'd" down thread if I'm off because I overstepped my knowledge on it.

  2. 1 hour ago, Guadaloopy said:

     

     

    Yes, FSD failed this particular test.  It's actually a very difficult test.  It doesn't take a very critical eye to watch this and see that the test was engineered to result in failure. 

    - The dummy was dressed in neutral colors and earth tones to blend in with the background vehicle and background vegetation and wall. 

    - The dummy remained stationary until very late in the test.

    - The dummy was accelerated to a near instantaneous running speed at the last possible moment.

    These conditions would be difficult for an unsuspecting human driver.

     

    O'Dowd is a disingenuous and untrustworthy Tesla FSD critic.  He is a competitor, and he is not above manipulating and falsifying experiments to show the results that support his arguments. Previous videos from O'Dowd have showed a warning on the Tesla screen indicating that the accelerator is being pressed by the human operator to override FSD's automated actions.  O'Dowd has passed these off as FSD failures when the failure is actually due to the overriding actions by the human operator. 

    This particular video has a warning on the screen that appears to be unrelated to FSD, but if multiple warnings are active, you can cycle through them to see the one you want.  There is something weird happening in this test.  In the first three tests, you can see the vehicle start to decelerate as it approaches the crosswalk and sees something, but it doesn't stop.  That leads me to believe that O'Dowd and his team are gaming the warning displays and actually slightly pressing the accelerator during these tests, effectively overriding FSD's automated actions.  I would like to see this test completed on a vehicle with no visible warnings on the screen.    

    I would also like to see videos from O'Dowd with the technology he supports passing this same test.

    Good example of why no system that only uses cameras can be safe, or why Tesla is getting lapped and is stuck at Level 2.

    With a proper system and sensor fusion, you would have caught the kid in time. Radar? Nope, not metallic enough. Cameras? Nope, obviously. LIDAR? Yep!

    That's why you need all three. They serve different roles to fill gaps in the capabilities of the others.

     

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  3. 6 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

    If you're leasing your car, you probably have bigger financial black flags than some corporate rebate / discount.

    Lot of cases, especially relating to tax treatment, where a lease makes sense. Especially for business owners.

    In our personal case a few months ago, we leased a PHEV Jeep Wrangler in order to get the full $7500 EV credit, and then bought it out as soon as we could get a payoff from the leasing company. That's thousands of dollars in our pocket thanks to leasing 

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  4. 38 minutes ago, royiv said:

    No love for the Caddy that zigs? 

    I mean, the Catera led to the Alpha-platform cars (CTS-V and ATS-V, and now CT4/CT5), which are one of the few cars you can meaningfully track and put four people in that doesn't cost an arm and a leg.

    I hate Musk as much as the next guy, by the way. I'd also add that I'm anti-proprietary just-about-anything, and the closed-off charging network drove me berserk, not unlike Apple's lightning cord or the way they used to do iTunes songs...

    But ... I don't think I agree with the dominant sentiment here that going further down- and mass-market beyond the Model 3 is the play. I follow the auto industry at a distance, and there's a reason that many companies have dropped sedans and cheap cars -- they just don't make enough money per unit of capacity. And while I get the argument about cheap cars bringing customers to a brand for their future loyalty, the data don't indicate that customers are loyal enough to make it worth it and I don't think it's enough to offset making thousands than hundreds per car sold. I think the play for Tesla is not diluting the bread-and-butter of the brand too much by going downmarket, and refreshing their current vehicles.

    But at the end of the day, I think Tesla is a one-trick pony (very-arguably cool tech, big promises, cachet, and fast acceleration set against shoddy build and poor per-dollar performance in anything but a straight line) and others are catching up to their trick while they have no ability to create something "new" again.

  5. On the reliability issue, it's important to distinguish between issues that don't matter hugely and are easily fixed, like infotainment glitches, and serious issues, like steering wheels falling off or murderous and falsely-advertised full-self driving systems.

    Point being, IIRC Consumer Reports does not distinguish based on severity (infotainment vs. drivetrain, for example) when measuring incidents/reliability. May be JD power, though?

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  6. 1 minute ago, Guadaloopy said:

    No... the logic is that all of those things I listed are much more common concerns on the road than another driver using FSD.  There are only 400,000 cars in all of North America that have FSD.  Your likelihood of being on the road with a Tesla driver using FSD is pretty damn low.

    It's analogous to being overly concerned about sharks at the beach while not caring much about rip currents.

    I prefer to worry about rip currents, sharks, and (lately) especially orcas.

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  7. For a real ass-puckering bridge adventure, may I suggest taking an iced-over Mackinaw Bridge on a cold, windy day?

    200 feet above the water and 5 miles in total with a longest span around 3/4 of a mile long.

    image.png.a0babbb319fabb0562ae1ff39c28d9c4.png

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  8. 1 hour ago, Guadaloopy said:

    And I'd prefer we not beta test teenage drivers on roads with people on or around them.  Or beta test drivers over 75.  Or beta test drivers with over 0.05 BAC.  Or beta test driving while texting.

    There are much more significant and common risk factors on our roads than drivers using FSD.

    Because other things may be unsafe, *my* thing is not unsafe?

    Am I following the logic here?

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  9. Another datapoint.

    Sent my son's passport and passport card to State on Feb 3rd. March 15th, we get a letter in the mail saying that they can't process it because we need to send in the old passport card to get a new one.

    We have a picture of our packet with the passport card and passport and all that jazz attached just before dropping it in the envelope.

    Sigh. Same day, we filled out some form saying the passport card was "lost" (by them) and send that in. March 20th, we get an email that says "Application Status: Information Received, In Process Again."

    We shall see.

  10. 24 minutes ago, Burt said:

    What app does everyone use for podcasts? I've been using Google Podcast for the past couple of years and have loved it, but that is going away at the end of the month. Google is hoping to funnel everyone toward YouTube Music, but I'd like something that automatically downloads new episodes and hides episodes after they've been listened to. I can't stand seeing 735 episodes sitting there and having to try and remember if I've already listened to them. 

    This. Plus, I don't want to fuck with my Youtube Music algorithm, which I have dialed in right now.

  11. On 2/29/2024 at 7:51 AM, Captainant said:

    first time GIF

    Haha, I officially feel stupid for engaging a particular poster here.

    Last straw was posting the "average hours" worked chart a page or two ago, without context of how many of those people are working two or more part-time jobs.

    Disingenuous at best. Me now leaving this thread that went from kvetching over enshittening to the shit-defender batsignal going somehow going up and bringing in the bootlicker cavalry.

    image.png.553289f8c42b7c2f4f5a1e1d1ec6b840.png

     

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  12. 14 hours ago, 52-80 said:

    If you reflect on what you have just written, you might have unintentionally made a point that you probably dont want to make. 

    ignoring the fact that the total household labor participation rate was the same as today… lets assume this fictitious, idealized single-earner household, what was that picture? the man, a union factory worker, having enough for house, car, and an annual vacation?

    where do you think the woman is in that picture? her educational attainment and economic freedom?

    the quality of life for the typical/median family, or the lower-class family, 50 or 60 years ago, its not what you think it is.

    Nowhere did I say or imply that I support dual-earner with a regression to 1960s social norms. Are you being purposefully obtuse?

     

    image.thumb.gif.256f9987510718051fbd8df2a96a40a7.gif

     

     

     

  13. 1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

    You funny man.  Serious question, did you even read the post to which you are responding?

    "Cherry picked by having data start in the 80s..."

    I plotted the data from 1984, because that matches the data FROM THE PRECEDING POST, where the LOW INCOME HOUSEHOLD was first made available.  Feel free to lobby your complaint to the Bureau of Labor Services.

    "my initial post said "the 70s or something like that."

    I *also* gave you the rate of 2+ earners in the 70s.  It is 57.44%.  Which is virtually same as 2019.  It's in the 8th column in case you're having trouble.

    "25% dual earner in 1960 to 60ish percent these days is a huge jump."

    Why move goalpost to the 1960s?

    image.png.9aef2ade59a077f225bd94b602442937.png

     

    This is a larger dataset covering all married opposite-sex couples in the US.  It is not a smaller subset of married couples WITH children under 18.

    When you mention the "household income" in relation,  the household is from a large survey covering all "consumer units" (CU), not households-with-small-children? I actually like Pew Research, but the larger raw data is available to examine yourself...

     

    I set the goalposts at 70s or something like that. Never moved 'em, unless you think the 60s isn't something like that. Semantics there.

    Point is, regardless of whether 50 or 60 years ago (stop fixating on the trees and catch the forest), the transition to de facto dual-earner being required for most people is an enshittening of QOL, even if just for peace of mind that, if you choose to both work, you're not in too much trouble if one of the two earners loses their job bc you could live off of one income.

  14. 2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

    Also false.

    This is change of two-earner+ households, since the start of the 1984 income data series from above.  It's gone down.

    The average in the 1970s was 57.44%. The last measurement was in 2019 at 59%.  That is not... a double.

     

    image.png.d3ac3645af6fd956c8fabfb070240bdb.png

    This information comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economics Supplements 1968-2020.  And recomiled in the 2021 BLS' Womens Databook.  Feel free to verify it for yourself.

    image.png.cea56fe631a69d386305c7419e801a46.png

     

    You cherry picked by having the data start in the 80s when my initial post said "the 70s or something like that."

    25% dual earner in 1960 to 60ish percent these days is a huge jump.

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  15. FWIW, 5280, utilizing *household* income as a measure is in problematic because it doesn't account for the (something like) doubling of two-earner households since the 70s or something like that.

    QOL is often much higher when one person isn't working, but you have enough money, and you're not running errands and trying to keep up on evenings/weekends.

    To link it to the umbrella topic, it's IMO enshittification that, for most households, one-earner and all the benefits that go with that is not something sustainable.

  16. On 1/30/2024 at 6:41 PM, Baboontyme said:

    Depends what you're into. I recommend the DIA, definitely the Henry Ford (Dearborn), Hittsville, the Riverwalk is decent. The zoo is nice. If the Tigers are in town you could check out Comerica, they might even be decent this year who knows. You could do a pedal pub downtown, they even have a boat version of the pedal pub on the river. Hell bring your passport and check out Windsor. There are also casinos if you're into that. Dearborn and Hamtramck are cool if you want to explore some different neighborhoods and aren't scared of brown people. If late 20s, early 30s bar hopping is your thing, Royal Oak. If you are a hipster corktown and Ferndale. If you want to hit on cougars and shop at Lululemon and smoke cigars, Birmingham. If you want to get out to the country and do something seasonal, find a good cider mill. Early September is an awesome time of year in SE Michigan typically weather wise. 

    This is a good example of how different strokes can be for different folks. Not my speed but may be your (Baboon's and many others'!) speed.

    I would not recommend *any* Detroit suburb except as a place to crash if you can't find a place in Ann Arbor or Detroit. My thought is, "If you're going to make the trip, why visit a suburb like those outside of just about any other city?" IMO, outside of a few places (I'll get to the Henry Ford Museum/Greenfield Village later), there is nothing unique enough in the suburbs to justify going there if you only have 48/72/however many hours in Michigan.

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  17. ANN ARBOR, PART 1

    For starters, Ann Arbor basically has two sides, though they’ve started to bleed over into each other since I was in college in the 2000s. To the west, in the heart of downtown, you have what is generally the adults/townie side, which is centered on Main Street. To the east, you have the student side, which is generally within a few blocks of the diag, which is the heart of UM’s campus. Though we don’t have anything as lively as Dirty 6th or Bourbon St. or anything like that, there’s more than enough places to go.

    Ann Arbor-Specific Things to Do, Eat Drink – These are things that are unique to Ann Arbor/UM. Not necessarily the best, but ya really don’t want to make the trip just eat at McDonald’s or go to a generic sports bar. These are some of the main things that’ll come up if you sit next to a UM alum on a plane or a barstool or something like that.

    • Campus. Other than just strolling around to catch vibes, things you will want to see are the rotating cube statue (google it), traipse through the student union and nickels arcade, and be absolutely sure to visit the beautiful law quad and, within it, take a peek at the law library. Think of these things like visiting the turtle pond at UT – things that set your/our particular campus apart from others.

    image.thumb.jpeg.70ea652b6c412c73285be78559776b74.jpeg

    • Kerrytown Market/Zingermans. If you’re into it, go to the over-century old market on the north side of downtown on Saturday morning, get some coffee, and get fattened up to drink all day. Zingerman’s is ostensibly an east coast style deli, but they’re also a cheesemonger, wine shop, and a bunch of other things. They pay living wage plus, many emploees are long-tenured, and every employee is super knowledgeable in their area of expertise. I think the deli itself is overrated and would be a very good but not best deli in, say, NYC, but the place is famous.

    image.thumb.jpeg.5e354e5c98c576ebd9416e9f9ca5915a.jpeg

    • Blimpy Burger. This is like going to the White Spot in Charlottesville or Players in Austin. Or it was. Much like Players, the land that Blimpy’s sat on for decades was snapped up by the university for development. Except, after some downtime, Blimpy’s reopened in another part of town with the same grill, most of the same employees, and so on.

    image.thumb.jpeg.1bb20a5293e96498ea5ee45d70ecef93.jpeg

    • Downtown. Ann Arbor has fought hard to preserve independent stores, restaurants, and bars. When we were dating and I first took my wife to my alma mater, she (originally from Houston) remarked that “Holy shit, I don’t think there’s a single chain down here.” I think it’s really cool, and great to just walk around and soak it in within a few blocks of Main Street and out east toward the student side.

    image.png.336b4f51aa469f0b79db3a95d5fca1c9.png

    I’ll write another post with specific bars restaurants I’d recommend, with a description of what to expect, along with places I don’t love, but that the rest of the world seems to love, and which are worthy of inclusion despite my personal opinion. I'll also have recommendations for stuff to do if you want to get out and be active. Ann Arbor's a pretty good town for that, too.

    [This is going to take me awhile. I’m slapping stuff together when I have downtime, which I don’t have a ton of these days…]

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