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dimyh

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Posts posted by dimyh

  1. 12 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

    We are already seeing a ramp up of hybrid activities in the Baltics.  I compare the Kremlin playbook to Leach’s Air Raid.  There are only a few actual plays and concepts they use, out of a huge mix of formations and camouflage. 
     

    In the Baltics, I think a lot about a modified Donbas play.  Suddenly a bunch of Russian speakers near a border  mysteriously begin whining about rights. Russia reinforces their border. Soon unmarked equipment and unacknowledged advisors turn up across the border, autonomy is declared.  Russia declares its interest but not involvement in this “internal crisis.” 

    In 2014 most of the world was prepared to abide by this fiction to avoid admitting that Russia invaded Ukraine.  We see in our own discourse that the ground is being prepared in the information space for the largest NATO Ally to take a skeptical stance towards Article 5 and to look for ways to discuss responsibility. 
     

    A lot of CFR folks would advocate for us to sit out that scenario. 

    I thought last year that the Russian military losses were so severe that they would be 4-5 years before they could attempt any serious threats by tangling with NATO in the Baltics. We all know that is where Putin would like to strike next but I didn't think he would have enough popular support nor the military might to properly intimidate us into inaction. 

    However Russia's shift to a war time economy is going to make them even more dependent on wartime profits. As soon as the Ukraine war ends their true economy is going to be plain to see. Putin is hallowing out their peacetime economy to feed his war machine. That social pressure he has been keen to avoid will be even hotter once the apathetic masses realize "winning" this war is not going to end up adding money to their pockets. It will not be business as usual.

    So I could see Putin continuing to triple down on his bets and keep up the war angle. Especially if EU/USA keep up the sanctions. Putin might be able to convince enough of his serfs that the only way to keep food on their table is being able to keep working in his manufacturies cranking out shells and drones.

    Plus with our own inability to really commit to ammo production means that we may look weaker than needed to stave off the little green men if they start showing up in Estonia. It's not something I thought was seriously possible but now it is becoming a bit more plausible. Especially thinking about Putin's own crazy psychological reasons for recovering their lost land and building his own legacy in history. Giving his subjects a financial reason for joining his megalomania is just the cherry on top of the shit sundae he is trying to serve up.

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  2. A long but interesting article measuring some of Europe's attitudes about the war and how to maintain support. No doubt enthusiam is waning but the authors are pointing out that a peace is not a permanent end to this conflict.

     

    TLDR

    "The best way to mitigate against war fatigue will be to define this idea of ‘durable peace’. Russian victory is not peace. And if the price of ending the war is turning Ukraine into a no man’s land, it will be a defeat not only for Kyiv but for Europe as a whole. In the event of negotiations, it is essential for both Ukrainian and Western publics to know what is on the table and what is not. What is not negotiable is Ukraine’s democratic and pro-Western future."

     

    https://ecfr.eu/publication/wars-and-elections-how-european-leaders-can-maintain-public-support-for-ukraine/#european-perceptions-of-the-war-in-ukraine

     

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  3. And on that note China is showing that Russia is their forever friend...unless money gets in the way. With their own economic problems they aren't quite as willing to challenge any sanctions. At least publicly. I'm sure there are plenty of work around but at the minimum this has to be driving up the price on any black market deals.

    Main thing though is that we have to keep Ukraine militarily supplied long enough for economic stranglehold to take effect. Putin's all out offensives is to make his position appear as the winning position. In time for his elections in March, the EU Parliament elections in June, and their our own in November. He has to appear as strong as possible to deter any more aid going to Ukraine. Because Russia is not going to win if this becomes a wallet flop out challenge with the West.

     

    https://www.businessinsider.com/china-biggest-banks-stop-russia-payments-icbc-ccb-boc-2024-2


    China's biggest banks are finally getting scared by the West's sanctions against Russia
    Huileng Tan Feb 21, 2024, 2:08 AM ET

    Three of China's Big Four state banks have stopped accepting payments from sanctioned Russian financial institutions, per Izvestia.
    The halt follows the EU's 12th sanctions package against Russia and US secondary sanctions.
    The West is now targeting international firms doing business with Russia.
     

    Three out of China's Big Four state banks have halted payments from sanctioned Russian financial institutions, Russia's Izvestia news outlet reported on Wednesday.

    The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Bank of China have stopped the transactions since the start of 2024, Alexey Poroshin, the general director of investment and consulting firm First Group, told Izvestia.

    While the three Chinese banks informed their Russian clients of the move in January, the issues started in December — after the European Union imposed its 12th sanctions package against Russia, Poroshin said. In December, the US also authorized secondary sanctions targeting financial institutions that help Russia skirt sanctions.

    Chinese banks are tightening compliance checks with Russian businesses because they fear getting caught up in the West's increasingly restrictive sanctions regime against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.


    Poroshin told the Izvestia that Chinese banks are now unwilling to do business with sanctioned firms because the trade balance between the US and China is far greater than that of China and Russia.

    Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Bank of China did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.

    The West has been ramping up sanctions against Russia as its economy appears resilient even two years after its invasion of Ukraine triggered sweeping trade restrictions. This is partly because Russia has diverted its trade eastward, particularly with China and India.

    In particular, Russian firms trading internationally have become more dependent on Chinese institutions and the Chinese yuan since some Russian banks withdrew from the SWIFT global financial-messaging system.


    So, the West is now trying to find a way to break Russia's economy by targeting international firms still doing business with the country instead.

    The Kremlin has acknowledged issues with Chinese bank transactions, with spokesperson Dmitry Peskov saying earlier this month that authorities are "working" on addressing them with Beijing.

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  4. Vid of a couple Russian tanks running into each other. Because that's what happens when vodka is your sponsor for driver's ed. We just need to build a half dozen roundabouts near Advika and that Russian tank stockpile will be zero by the 4th of July. Just in time for one of my new favorite pastimes: turret tossing fireworks.

     

     

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  5. 22 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

    My 2024 predictions - spoiled for the TLDR crowd.

      Reveal hidden contents

    My 2024 predictions - Russian Homefront

     

    • Putin will win his election in March with 85% of the vote, but I think some shit will go down at some polling locations with protests.  78% is what he got in 2018, and it has to be more this time around.
    • Putin will probably still be in power in December
    • Gerasimov and Shoigu will be out of power and/or dead by  December
    • I think he tries to do a "general mobilization" of at least 500,000 after his election (will more likely be closer to 200-300,000 when you factor in Russian corruption and how many have already left Russia that will still be on the rolls).  He'll use the cover of giving everybody that's currently fighting in Ukraine a break, but we know those sad sacks will not actually be pulled off the front lines.  They are there until they die.   Counterpoint: He'll openly say 250,000 are being mobilized, but he'll continue heavy stealth mobilization of the prisons and foreigners and poors and minorities.
    • He'll probably mobilize 25-50,000 from Moscow and St. Petersburg combined and they'll mostly be prisoners/malcontents/draft dodgers from previous mobilizations, and students, or people who did their normal conscription in 2018-2021.  Or the unemployed. I don't think he risks mobilizing the middle/upper classes either, and he does have to keep the economy somewhat going.
    • I think there were will be growing protests in Moscow/St. Pete's - it's already happening with small numbers of women/families openly protesting, and with everybody knowing Putin rigged the election, and with a coming general mobilization, those that were not able to flee Russia may not see anything to be lost in protesting, since they'll be going to Ukraine anyways.

    Russian Republics and Neighboring Countries

     

    • I don't think any republics break away from Russia unless Putin ends up out of power and/or loses in Ukraine
    • I think the CIS/CSTO is finished this year - Armenia is leading the way after Russia couldn't do anything about Azerbaijan, and I think Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan will follow suit. Armenia wants Russian troops gone, and it's aligning itself with NATO/USA.  Economically all four nations would be better off aligning with other countries.  Russia really fucked up by being unable to live up to the CSTO.
    • I think Belarus will partake in Anschluss 2.0 later this year, whether it wants to or not.  Lukashenko cares more about remaining in power than helping Putin, and Putin knows it, and can use that to his advantage (i.e. Lukashenko can cooperate and remain in power, or be done).
    • I think Moldova will start to truly be rid of the Transnistria nonsense later this year.  They are working towards it.
    • I'm on the fence about Georgia.  It's holding a shitload of Russian men who fled conscription, and Putin would love to get his hands on them. If Russia invaded the rest of Georgia, it's not like sanctions are going to be any worse than they are right now.  The flip side is that even a decent resistance in Georgia would spread an already too-thin Russian military out even more, and if they had the logistics to invade Georgia right now, we would have seen them making a dent in Ukraine. And of course, if he goes into Georgia proper, it'll probably increase aid to Ukraine from the West.
    • China continues feeding Russia cheap shit from Ali Baba and doesn't supply anything militarily significant (and they may have their own military hardware problems, see the China thread).
    • If shit goes down with Iran in the Middle East, and some factories start getting blown up, Putin might panic.  It would be in his interest to get Iran to back the fuck off now, and keep those factories running.

    Ukraine Proper

    • I think Ukraine makes major gains in Crimea.  Russia is spread to thin and hasn't been able to boot them out.  
    • I think Ukraine will mostly leave DPR alone as Russia is doing its best to turn the people there against it through conscription, and the suburbs of Donetsk are soaking up lots of Russian dead.
    • The next major Russian atrocity in Ukraine will probably be either an all-out air attack on Kyiv going at the government or probably fucking around with one of the nuke power plants.
    • Ukraine will get F-16s in the summer. Will they change the game?  They make it easier to use NATO munitions, and they could be used in a lot of roles, including suppressing air defenses (thanks to AGM-88/HARMs). I don't see flights of F-16s roaming Crimea or the Russian border looking for targets of opportunity or going after Russian bombers.
    • I think we'll see a major incident involving Russian mines or missiles and EU countries. Could result in a NATO-manned air-defense bubble over Western Ukraine, and could see NATO ships acting as escorts.  Turkey has not been happy about Russia's mines floating around because it fucks with their commerce.
    • I am slightly optimistic that Ukraine will see an uptick in supplies from the West - European and American factories have been increasing their output quite a bit, as well as refurbishing stuff that's been in storage or was on its way to storage.  HIMARS production has nearly doubled, US artillery ammo production is steadily ramping up to 100,000 rounds a month, air-defense system production is steadily increasing.
    • Ukraine has more domestic production coming online, including long-range missiles, drones, etc.
    •  

    My only sure-fire prediction is that Russia will lose another boat to a country that doesn't even have a navy.

    image.png.6fd2eaf798b08dad9d979a8d00435b82.png

     

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  6. 4 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

    I saw some article the other day about waiting like a month after to have the surgery so all the inflation goes down. Supposedly that helps the surgery and recovery go so much faster. 

    God damn inflation! Now the Fed's fiscal plan is fucking with my college football!

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  7. 14 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

     

     

    This is just another sign of how tenuous Putin's position is. The inability to call up a mass mobilization is going to jeopardize his entire war. Sure they have some strong positions but expecting their current roster to hold out for 6-8 months is stupifying. They may have some shadow recruiting to bolster some of their lines but they need some more meat if they can expect to hold on against the steady UA advance.

    It is almost a parallel dilemma with the West...we have been risking failure by not committing all the necessary equipment up front, while Putin cannot commit the necessary bodies from the start to guarantee success.

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  8. 3 hours ago, BamaATL said:

    I don't know the answer to the soil conditions.  What I have read about Tokmak isn't encouraging though.  Apparently the Russians are preparing to make this a hill to die upon, by further fortifying the area, having two level concrete bunkers around it, etc.  If the Ukrainians can get there, they may well be better served attempting to surround and lay siege to it; a la Vicksburg.  Unfortunately, that would have enormously bad consequences for the any civilians left in the area.  As shitty as that would be, the reality is they are going to have to juggle the loss of civilians vs the potential loss of troops.  That's a shit deal.  

    Agreed that taking Tokmak is going to be tough. Russia knew it was going to be a key focal point and built up their defensive lines in the area.

    My hopes in the spring was that UA would be able to get a breakthrough east of Tokmak, then push west flanking most of the defensive obstacles before completely securing the town. Then as UA would push south to Melitopol they would also clear the left bank of the Dniepro (this was before the dam was blown) and get pontoon bridges setup to shorten their logistic tail. They wouldn't attack Melitopol just yet, merely surround it for a long term siege. The rest of the push wasn't to necessarily get to the Azov sea but push close enough south to get the highway north out of Crimea under fire control and get the Kerch bridge in missle range. That would effectively cut them off from any supplies.

    All of this to force a long winter for Putin. To make him and the rest of his leadership sweat the budgeting period heading into 2024. To keep the political momentum hitting on both sides. Threatening Crimea would be a huge blow to the Russian psyche. Plus the positive gains would keep that pro-Ukrainian support still pumping. Then in 2024 would be the big campaign to liberate the entire south.

    Alas that's not to be...too much hopium on my side. Not to say that Ukraine is now losing, just that the timeline is not the same. 2023 could just be a large shaping operation with a focus on attrition. Hopefully we can get into Tokmak before year end.

     

     

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  9. 3 hours ago, BamaATL said:

    Well, I wouldn't call it a winter stalemate, as conditions for operations actually get better come a few weeks of freezing.  However, rasputista, the mud season is upon them.  The spring mud season is generally worse and longer (due to snow melt), but its pretty limiting during the fall wet season, which we are now in, though I've seen no reports of yet to indicate this.  

    I did, however, see that today Ukraine had it's first snowfall, in high altitude areas.  

    I have also heard (and no idea if valid or not) that the rasputitsa is not as severe once you get south of Tokmak. The soil shifts more to a sandy composition which limits the mud. So if they could actually reach Tokmak then UA may still be able to continue offensive operations in the south. The big question remains on how soon they could actually secure Tokmak. I believe they are still 25-30 kms out.

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  10. Which I hope is another miscalculation and part of Putin's hubris. That eventually the economic woes begin to squeeze those in Moscow and St Petersberg. These are the ones that have been living with a higher level of prosperity than the backwoods citizens used to wiping their ass in an outhouse. Once those big city folks find their standard of living plummeting off a cliff then they might generate enough grumbling to embolden someone with enough connections to coordinate a coup on vova Putin.

    At least that is my most plausible dream to see that fuckwad dead and buried. Or at a minimum just dead. Hopefully the car bomb is big enough that there is nothing left to bury.

     

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  11. Wish I still had the photo but had an awesome shot with me and 2 Dallas Mavericks girls. It was a business trip with me and my manager scouting solutions in a big sales expo at the AAC. I won a raffle for a free iPad and was lucky enough to pose with two blonde hotties on each side. My manager snapped a beautiful pic: me proudly clutching the iPad in the middle with each girl perfectly framed for max cleavage...and my head completely cutoff. 

    Priorities man. Priorities!

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  12. 1 minute ago, Schulz2.0 said:

     

    Yep, from what I've been hearing is that the current Polish leadership party is very conservative and right-wing which is great for anti-Russian sentiment but it is not immune from needing to posture for its constituents. Their party gets a lot of support from their agricultural industries which is upset about their local grain prices sinking due to Ukrainian grain flooding in due to all of the troubles with normal shipping lanes. So the Poles are just trying to score some political points before the upcoming election.

    Also the one Polish minister's comments about no longer sending military gear was taken out of context. That comment was in the context that it was factually true that the Poles were no longer sending military aid but that was because they had already sent over all the aid that they had pledged. They had already cleared out all of their old Soviet stock.  It had nothing to do with grain price grumbles. Remember this when reading headlines: the Russia media and their Ruzzbots are going to look at any slight chance of infighting and make sure to amplify it as part of their disinformation campaigns. 

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