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dimyh

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Posts posted by dimyh

  1. 3 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

    Allegedly there are 6 defensive lines. It’s categorized as the most heavily fortified area in the southern region. So much so there are a ton of cheerleader analysts for Ukraine who think an offensive in that direction is just flat out dumb. 

    I don’t agree. I don’t see how someone can know unless they’ve walked those fortifications, they know the quality and number of the personnel deployed there, and what the artillery, ammo, air support, and heavy armor availability is. 

    And you discover that by making probing attacks to see how the enemy responds. 

    I sure would be excited by a pending encirclement of Tokmak, I know that. But we’ll see. Don’t want to get my hopes up just yet. I want to mentally let Ukraine do their thang, whatever that may be. 

    But refresh gets a bit worn out at times. Not going to lie. 

    Amen brother. I know I'm smoking a big fat bowl of hopium waiting for some bg updates. But I understand my biases and try to be patient with getting reports from credible sources before getting too high or low. At least my work has been crazy this week so I haven't been refreshing tabs quite as much. Hopefully Ukrainian biolabs are working OT to create more killer sharks. Sharks with frickin lasers!!

    Austin Powers Shark GIF by reactionseditor

     

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  2. 24 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

    Amazing.

    You managed to be wrong about nearly every single thing.

    It's not pro-Putin propaganda. It should be pretty clear I'm the furthest thing from that, since my conclusion from this is that Moscow needs to be eliminated entirely or colonized.

    Umm I think you're misreading his msg. Auto is saying that Putin's strategic logic for external buffer states is bullshit. If Russia simply focused on not being an asshole to its neighbors and simply focused on basic border security then they wouldn't have all of these mythical "threats" to their national security.

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  3. On 6/3/2023 at 12:55 AM, Schulz2.0 said:

     

    Bringing this post up as I think these new PMCs are going to be a factor in the upcoming warlord cage match. I had not heard too much aside from Putin adding his blessing to encourage these new forces. Which still dumbfounds me that he would continue to empower a faction build up. Instead of trying to consolidate the chain of command he is instead fragmenting his power.

    Now I can see certain positives with this initiative:

    1) Secret mobilization - allows deployment of existing security personnel without utilizing an official 2nd wave of mobilization.

    2) Offset costs  - forces PMCs to shoulder most of the burden of recruitment/salary/equipment costs.

    3) Administrative structure - bypasses the need for governmental red tape and utilizes existing corporate hierarchy to handle the fine print.

    4) Weaken Wagner - by advocating new PMCs, Putin is clearly limiting the funding and resources for Priggy.

     

    However it is just insane to me that he does not consider all of the drawbacks:

    1) Fragmented chain of command - the existing COC has been horrible and adding in multiple players is just going to detoriate further. I wonder if this is also a sign that they may not have enough leadership structure to even train and utilize these new bodies in the regular army in the first place.

    2) Corruption will continue - who knows how many of those recorded mercs are actually available on the front? Guaranteed that these companies will over report the number of bodies available for duty.

    3) Legitimizes factions - this has made it very legal for private businesses to expand on their security forces. They have time to organize trainers, equipment, and build together teams with more advanced tactics than what would normally be acceptable. While not at the same level of experience as Wagner it is a big first step for building a functional fight force that has inherent loyalty to the company and not the state.

     

    Now Gazprom is a state business and essentially another wallet for Putin, making those PMCs nominally his private army but there have got to be other oligarchs building up their forces. Teaming up with other mafia muscle to cement a survival plan for once vova Putin bites a bullet. They may not all be ambitious in securing the top spot but they are definitely trying to preserve their fiefdoms. If not actively knocking out competitors they will be muscled up to stop unplanned launches from their penthouse's windows. It is going to be nuts trying to keep track off all the potential players once this pops off. Putin/Shoigu/Gerisimov/Prigozhin/Kadyrov are the big names at this point. What other names are going to pop up over the next couple of years?

     

     

     

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  4. 10 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

    So I’ll ask again, is this the biggest geopolitical blunder in the history of mankind?

    Amateur historians, please stack rank…

    So the sweetest schadenfreude is that Putin is on record stating that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the biggest tragedy of the 20th century. So when the time is right, I like to think the last thing to go through his head, other than that bullet, was to wonder how he created the biggest disaster in the 21st century.

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  5. We'll see how long these revolutionaries hold out. I'm still thinking it's going to be a quick in and out panty raid but if they hold on then we might start seeing some comparisons to the Time of Troubles. One of the bloodiest times in Russian history where the false Dmitrys would march to Moscow claiming to be the true heir to the throne. 

    Movie Popcorn GIF by Angry Birds

     

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  6. Some rumors from Telegram are saying that Mikhail Mizintsev is now deputy commander in Wagner. Who is this guy you may ask? I know its hard to keep track of all of these potato-headed Bond villains but this is the guy that was recently fired by Putin from his post as deputy minister of defense and logistics. Prior to that he was better known as the Butcher of Mariupol as he was the one who commanded that assault all last year.

    So very interesting that the guy who was recently bitching about lack of ammo and piss poor logistics gets the very guy who was in control of all of that just a few weeks ago. Not quite sure if this a way for Prigozhin to backdoor into some secret stockpiles. Or just partnering up for an eventual showdown for the upcoming warlords dance party.

    Or maybe its a calculated move by Putin to secure a replacement for Priggy? Fake a dismissal just so that he can plant him in the one PMC that is the biggest loose canon out there. Tons of possibilities and different theories we can make about this news. Either way it is going to be quite fascinating on who starts pointing fingers once this counter-offensive starts popping off. There is no early buyout and and a chance to retire to their dacha for these guys.

     

    Business Ukraine mag on Twitter: "Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev, better  known as “the Butcher of Mariupol,” has been appointed Russia's new deputy  defense minister for logistics as changes among army leadership continue.

     

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  7. 2 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

    I can understand frustration on the one hand, as this is a war that is the most “online” in history while at the same time, the nature of the conflict and the opponents mean that deception and obfuscation and secrecy will play a major role. For Ukraine, maskirovaka is a matter of national survival. For Russia, what began as a tactic has not also become, at least in part, an issue of regime survival. 
     

    If you’ve followed the GWOT, you can get frustrated about Ukraine’s lack of clarity on casualties, but if you accept that this is a war of survival where the information theater is an area of active combat, you can see why that information isn’t coming. But anyone should be able to grasp that questions like “how many missiles does Russia have left” is one that isn’t easily answered and the people who might know aren’t going to tell. 
     

    But if you care enough to post and do Twitter searches, but don’t care enough to find out who might be reliable, you’re not engaging honestly. 

    This era of drone and satelite intel is quite amazing. I shudder to think what D-Day would have been like if the Nazis had the reconnaissance tech of today. Maybe we would have taken Normandy but with 5x the casualty rate. Maybe we don't get to meet the Soviets in Berlin and all of Germany becomes East Germany. Lotta what ifs we could play with all day long. It will be interesting to see how modern armies adapt for major offenses when the fog of war can be so thin nowadays.

    Which is why I'm so anxious waiting for this next phase to kickoff.

     

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  8. 6 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

    A little on that UNGA resolution, I have to say I am more in @SydneyCarton’s camp. 
     

    The resolution is a general one that calls for more cooperation between the UN and the Council of Europe.  The part about Russian aggression is one paragraph. During the drafting phase, China tried to have that paragraph removed. They didn’t succeed, so the whole resolution went for a vote with the aggression language in, and China held their nose and voted for it. 
     

    Why? Because China has seen the potential to push on fractures between Europe and the United States by playing “good cop” to Europe and trying to paint the U.S. as a spoiler. China has astutely recognized that being too far, publicly, in Russia’s camp is going to push Europe away more. And a “no limits” partnership with Russia is a poor substitute for access to the massive EU market and for the potential to peel away U.S. Allies. 
     

    In short, this is if anything a tactical gesture to Europe and is not to be seen as a shift in Chinese attitudes, especially not on big questions like Taiwan or the S. China sea. 

    Fair points in the above and I agree in general that this is not a huge paradigm shift. However this one of the first publicly documented instances where the Putin and Xi "friendship without limits" is clearly subordinate to China's interests. China is clearly signaling that the European market is of much more value than the Russian market. And that's got to add to Putin's pucker factor going forward.

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  9. What Putler youth doing? A depressing look at Putin using ex-soldiers to push patriotic propaganda to school kids. Which is why a total defeat would be terrific as I hate to see this level of brainwashing continuing year after year. Maybe if they focused more on teaching critical thinking skills and less about jingoism then this could recognize the hypocrisy of the guy preaching that it's the Ukrainians that are facist. Long article but worth the read from meduza.

     

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