On mobile. Don’t know how to spoiler By: Eric, Gerry, and Justin A year ago, almost to the date, we wrote this to assuage any fears Tom Herman wouldn’t make substantial changes to his coaching staff. The expected overhaul occurred and Tom Herman was given a new lease on life. Of course that lease didn’t last very long and now athletic director Chris Del Conte finds himself in a similar situation to last year, just this time his focus will be on the head coach rather than coordinators and below. Del Conte was hired at Texas for two reasons, to raise money and hire coaches. He understands the two go hand in hand. Hire good coaches and raising money becomes much more easier, particularly in the $100k group. Hiring a big name coach would bring more financial support from that donating demographic. The million-dollar bunch is usually around the rim already, but they’re currently sitting on their wallets when it comes to athletic donations. The current climate has made it much harder to raise money, so even if it’s not his fault, Del Conte is failing to do the #1 thing he was hired to do. Fundraising hitting the wall is a fait accompli for Herman, unless he pulls off a miraculous run of winning. And even then, his job is still in danger. Del Conte won’t be taking the blame for his inability to raise money. Donors who don’t wield heavy influence, but who cut large checks, all ask the same question: What about Urban Meyer? In the past, Meyer's history would preclude being hired at Texas. We’ve probably never reversed course more quickly on something we were so adamant on. That’s because the donors’ appetite changed almost overnight. At the same time, Texas has a new school president in Jay Hartzell who is a friend to athletics in general and football in particular. While it wouldn’t be accurate to say he’s beating the drum for Meyer, we’ve heard he’s open to it. We know Del Conte’s open to it because a hire like that fulfills both of his main obligations: raising money and making excellent coaching hires. SCENARIOS While you play A Tribe Called Quest in your head, we’ll update the current scenarios we outlined in the recent Humidor. Here we go, yo. 1. Option #1: Not to confuse Meyer being likely, but we were early to say the hire is at least possible. Because of that, the early signals were coming through loud and clear. We were able to corroborate some key bits of news. As more catch on behind the scenes, the noise is starting to drown out the signal. Rumor SZN is upon us. Everybody has heard something it seems, but unfortunately the info doesn’t always align. Our best sources on the matter, however, are in a holding pattern. That is to say, the hire is still doable. If top brass deems it’s time to move on from Herman, buyout money won’t be an issue for a quality hire. Funding a hire as ambitious as Meyer could be a bit more difficult. There are a lot of ways to make the numbers work, however, and if a realistic number is negotiated, the school will find a way to ante up. If this were to come to fruition, the politics wouldn’t look great for the school. A lot of people don’t understand ROI, sadly. Aside the financial considerations, another question is if he would really take the job? That’s impossible to know, but we know he wants to coach again. He’s hyper-competitive and wants to win a fourth National Championship at a third school. Could he find a situation better than UT? With a talented roster, new facilities, a defensive coordinator he’s won a trophy with, as well as an accomplished running backs coach he’s familiar with, Texas sets up quite well. If he doesn’t want the job, we’ll have to question whether he truly wants to work again, and that’s not Texas arrogance talking. UT really does have a solid foundation in place. We know he wanted the Dallas Cowboys job even though his heart belongs to college football. He wants to coach again. Some have speculated Oklahoma could come open. That would be a great situation for him but it’s unlikely there will be a vacancy in Norman. We heard last year Lincoln Riley turned down the Cowboys. We never corroborated it but we find it plausible. There’s also some fear OU would be more proactive than Texas. We don’t know why there’s an assumption now that Del Conte isn’t already being proactive. In short, Meyer likely won’t have a better option than Texas. This will likely come down to money, and, well, there being a job opening. 2. Herman saves his job: At this time it’s hard to fathom this scenario. To his credit, his players still believe in him, but try as we might, we haven’t found much support for him otherwise. Some of the most instrumental people in bringing him to Texas are out on him for much the same reasons the fans are. It’s hard to overstate the level of frustration with Herman from people who have influence over his immediate future. It’s morbid to talk about, and for all his faults we hate writing it. But we can’t discuss the future of Texas football without this being in the record. We don’t know the likelihood that Herman could be removed in-season, but we have heard it’s not off the table. Typically that’s a no-go but recruiting and roster considerations aren’t what they once were. A protracted search must begin much earlier in the calendar otherwise the carcass will be picked of what quality meat remains. 3. Comprehensive process: If Meyer isn’t the guy, and if Herman doesn’t save his job, Del Conte and Hartzell will have a difficult decision on their hands. There is no clear alternative to Meyer but there are numerous potential candidates. Just whittling that group down to a manageable number will be difficult. Last week we hinted at one common name becoming a plausible candidate. We’re still not putting his name out there but he and Del Conte have some familiarity with each other. You might leap to Sonny Dykes, but no, that’s not him. This is a more high profile coach. Over the weekend we heard a couple of Tier 3 names: Billy Napier at the University of Louisiana and Luke Fickell at Cincinnati. That isn’t to say these coaches have already been back-channeled, just that there are people who consider them rising stars in the industry. The most telling thing is, the school seems to be operating on two tracks should a change need to be made. The names aren’t important, at least not yet. RECRUITING Running back L.J. Johnson, Cy Fair Texas had surged to the top over Texas A&M, LSU, and Georgia prior to the season, and the Longhorns were extremely close to receiving a verbal. Now, the Longhorns are fighting to remain in the mix and delay Johnson's decision behind the work of Stan Drayton and Bryan Carrington. It’s imperative Drayton and Carrington keep their hooks in Johnson while the coaching uncertainty plays out. Wide receiver Dont’e Thornton, Mount Saint Joseph (MD) The Longhorns were making headway in this recruitment prior to the back-to-back losses. Oregon has been considered the front runner over North Carolina and Notre Dame prior to Texas and Georgia jumping in with both feet. This decision will be getting away from home as much as football with a decision expected this week. Keon Coleman, Opelousas (LA) More below. Offensive line Savion Byrd, Duncanville Texas has quietly continued to work to get Byrd to make a student visit to Austin, but remains behind Oklahoma, SMU, and LSU and is considered a long shot. Byrd’s former offensive line coach Marcus Graham is now the head coach at Beaumont United and had this to say about Byrd last week. “He’s going to play on Sundays. He’s gotten a lot bigger and is now more than a great frame. He’s an intelligent kid. He works at it.” Bryce Foster, Katy Taylor Heading into the season Oklahoma was considered the favorite with Texas quietly running second or third with Texas A&M and Oregon in the hunt. Both OU and UT have struggled, while A&M is off to a better than expected start. Given his good relationship with Hand, and Hand very, very unlikely to be retained, we’re barely watching this one. Defensive line Shemar Turner, DeSoto Texas made up ground over the summer to the point of one person close to the recruitment placing the Longhorns in front, but the performance on the field this season has placed Texas A&M comfortably in the driver's seat with Alabama lurking. Byron Murphy II, DeSoto After missing on Albert Regis, Texas has made contact with the DeSoto staff about offering Murphy. To this point, Murphy hasn’t shown signs of budging off his commitment to Baylor. David Abiara, Mansfield Legacy The Notre Dame “soft commit” continues to be a target of the Texas staff, with continued communication with both Abiara and family. Abiara mentioned in September that Texas would likely be the pick if not the Fighting Irish. SMU’s Randall Joyner continues to be in contact as well, and the Mustangs continue to believe they have a chance for the flip. Je’Lin Samuels, Sam Rayburn The 6-foot-6, 225-pound senior defensive end surprised many by committing to SMU last week. The timing of his announcement happened to be literally hours before Texas planned to offer, and when the interest from Texas A&M was nearing that point, too. Arizona State, Colorado, and Houston had offered in recent days along with SMU. This is a recruitment that IT doesn’t feel like is a wrap. Ike Iwunnah, Lakeview Centennial With Regis committed to A&M, and Turner possibly following suit, Texas needs interior help in the class. We won’t be surprised if this recruitment heats up after Iwunnah was offered months ago. Linebacker Terrence Cooks, Shadow Creek Cooks is planning to announce his commitment in November, and the Longhorns continue to be squarely in the mix along with Baylor and LSU. This was a recruitment that IT felt strongly about Texas winning out in September, but the product on the field matters. KEON COLEMAN Texas continues to look for outside receivers in the 2021 class. It’s been a journey thus far. UT offered the 6-foot-4, 200-pounder from Opelousas (LA) Catholic following his decommittment from Kansas. Coleman currently holds 40 offers, including Georgia, Auburn, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Miami. In 2019, the four-star wideout had 1,143 yards and 22 touchdowns on 35 catches. That's 32.6 ypc. He added seven INTs on defense as well and excels on the hardwood as a Division I level point guard. He has a lot of responsibilities in 2020, namely getting back to the playoffs. "We are finding ourselves after losing nine of our defensive starters last year," said Coleman. "There isn't one school on the schedule we won't be ready for." All the schools are in the "same boat" as others, according to Coleman, but he's got his eyes on a few programs. "(Texas) is a great school," said Coleman. "They are good at getting the ball to their big receivers." TCU is also on his mind. "I've been listening to (Malcolm Kelly, TCU WR coach)," Coleman said. "We're supposed to chop it up again soon." It's hard to gauge where UT stands early in this pursuit, but he's eager to listen to Texas and likes Andre Coleman. In most years, he'd probably attend LSU, but the Tigers have bigger fish on the line.