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JimmyTwoTimes

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Posts posted by JimmyTwoTimes

  1. 8 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

    I've seen projections of up to 9 bcf/d coming offline in May 

    3 to 5 most likely in May in my opinion. But who knows. These declines will be offset by demand destruction and LNG cancellations throughout q2 and potentially q3. Really messy in the front of the curve but unquestionably supportive winter/2021.

    Problem is that it’s become a really crowded trade at this point. Lots of Doctor/dentist money in the natty now as well.

  2. 31 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

    What was gas in Europe about a year ago?  $6?  Of course there’s a correlation. If it’s a true global commodity, there’s gonna be a few benchmarks within 10% of one another. When the LNG market is greater than 10% of production, you’ll have a better argument. 

    I guess we are just arguing semantics of a “global commodity”. My view is that it is, now. PSA... running into producer hedging in 2021 at 2.50+... those lots will find their way to the front of the market at some point soon. Happy Gas Trading and good evening.

  3. 2 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

    Look at historical prices in Europe versus US - and even today. I disagree it’s global. It’s trending in that direction but not there yet. 

    Good. I presume this is the associated gas drop you’re anticipating. At $1.75 and trending upward, I don’t see an Appalachian slowdown. 

    Lol really? Look on your Bloomberg terminal at a prompt Ng1/ttf1 spread. They have followed each other like puppy dogs for months. That has corresponded with a steady increase in LNG exports as trains have come online. Is that some random walk?

    As for the associated gas drop. I have lurked on here a long time and very much appreciate your opinions Trey, but no way is production dropping to 80 any time soon. And the first tranche that drops will be the volumes being flared currently in the Bakken and Permian, over 1 bcfd. 

     

     

  4. 24 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

    It’s not global, not even close to crude.  We produce 100 Bcfd. I’m not bullish on gas except I think it’s interesting NG hasn’t really moved much and is starting to come up. We still have entirely to much has in this country, and that’s not stopping any time soon. 

    To classify NG as a regional or domestic commodity in 2020 is inaccurate. We require exports to balance supply/demand given current close to record high levels of production. That makes it global. Look at ng versus nbp/ttf/jkm  on a chart. 

    I don’t think we are disagreeing with each other except for that point.

    As for price...we’ve held multi year lows, which I guess is supportive. Balances in the near term, however, are a train wreck. Burns from power generation will have to remain at all time highs to keep the bottom in. Tough ask in the current state of affairs.

  5. 2 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

    So static without an increase, but a significant decline in production. Interesting. Could continue to be good for gas, maybe even huge. People forget it’s very much a regional commodity, even within the States, versus being at the whims of global consumption and production like crude. 

    NG is very much a global commodity, we export 8+ bcf/d at this point. And to discount the amount of LNG turnback due to global demand destruction, which is very real and was an issue even before the virus, could be very painful if you want to own the front end of the gas curve via some simple jack etf like UNG. Even the deferred contracts are becoming crowded, thanks to research being put out by the likes of Gold Man Sacks. I’m all for the bull story but it isn’t time to jump in now imo.

  6. 37 minutes ago, Jacob McCandles said:
    41 minutes ago, Bevo said:
    I guess we were lucky to play all our district games at Tully and occasionally Alief. It would be kind of a pain in the ass to drive an hour to play Brenham.

    How about a 4p sub-varsity game in Brenham on a Thursday ...

    Between junior and senior years, trips to Brenham, Waller, Tomball, and Magnolia in Houston rush hour traffic. A beating.

  7. The most bullish thing about NG at this point is positioning, CTAs are almost max short at this point.

    3 out of 4 really loose misses on storage in the last month. It’s a pig. We’ll bounce, sure, but it will be of the dead cat variety.

  8. Have gone to Bonnaroo the past 2 years with my daughter, heading back this year. They handle the logistics pretty well and have great food options and real restroom facilities on site. Not interested in camping there, they provide hourly shuttle service to Murfreesboro or Nashville. 

    Music has run the entire spectrum, there is something for everyone. U2 did their first US festival there 2 years ago. Phish headlines this year. Tons of unknown and up and coming talent. Great bonding for an old and his 17 yr old daughter. 

  9. My son goes there, so I've watched most of their games and will weigh in...ND is solid across the board and has no glaring weaknesses. I was sold after they went to NYC after a tough travel schedule and dismantled a good Syracuse team.

    They will give Clemson a great game, I won't be surprised if they win.

     

  10. Carnitas:

    get the meat from HEB, if they are open. 4 ish pounds

    oregano, chili powder, cumin, salt, pepper. More is better.

    quarter an onion. Put half on the bottom of the crockpot.

    throw garlic cloves in. 5-37, no more.

    juice of 2 navel oranges, 7 small limes.

    place meat in, cover with rest of onion and another 5-37 garlic cloves. 8 hours on low.

    after 8 hours, shred meat with 2 or more forks, leave in juice for another 30 minutes, have 1-3 drinks. Set oven to broil.

    after 30 minutes, put meat on a pan and broil for 3-5 minutes to finish. Pour drink.

    serve with tortillas, rice, beans, etc... These are delicious.

     

  11. My son played for Coach Allen at Stratford. Good guy, solid football coach. He had Stratford playing competitive football for the last few years even though the talent level dropped off and they were barely above the 6a cut line. I think he'll do well at Brenham.

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