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camel at sea

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Everything posted by camel at sea

  1. Assuming the deal is with Apple / the CW / Tubi / etc., they probably want to get through Media Days first before announcing it. Even if the money is good, they're not going to want to talk about the new media partners. There's no way for that to come off well. "Coach Lanning, how do you feel about playing games on the CW and do you worry about the possible negative effect that will have with recruits." You don't want football guys having to talk about that. Save that for ADs and admins.
  2. He'll probably end up being right. It seems more likely to me, than not, that at least one PAC schools eventually jumps ship at some point in the next month or two. SDSU will be first in line to be invited when that happens.
  3. If OU beats UW back in '84, they probably get a beauty pageant win over BYU in the polls. The Sooners finished the '84 regular season with back to back top 3 wins. A one loss OU with a much tougher schedule probably gets the nod there and Switzer had politicked it hard. If Washington plays BYU that year, instead of OU, then even if they beat BYU, the narrative would have been that BYU was a fraud. OU - who was ranked ahead of UW - would have just needed to win the Orange Bowl against someone else to win the title. Just about anyone else who might have slotted into that game would have been worse than UW. There was a pretty good chance that OU would have jumped BYU even if BYU had played and beaten UW, so long as OU racked up another Top 10 win in the Orange Bowl. Switzer had politicked so much going into bowl season that he made a bunch of BYU folks extremely angry. They named a sewage treatment plant after him in retaliation. https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1985-12-31-sp-26324-story.html
  4. If they're down to inviting UNLV/Boise, then it this a situation where Oregon State and Washington State are the only two left?
  5. I think UNC - if they want to leave - will need to latch themselves onto someone who brings enough value to pay the way in for them. Texas is now off the board for that role. Maybe they can lean on ND or FSU. Alternatively, UNC might also see a future for the ACC that looks like the new Big 12. If/when the big football brands go, the Tar Heels can be the biggest hoops brand in a conference that is good enough in football to pay the bills, but not good enough to pay out SECish money. That might be fine with them. They get to run a league, play all the local teams that they care about, and keep their focus and energy on basketball and Olympics.
  6. It's hard to see how the Big 12 takes 2 from the PAC, and stops at taking only 2 from the PAC. Maybe the play is to try to skip over ASU/Utah and bring in UO/UW as #15/#16.
  7. I'd have to see the receipts on this. I think Oregon is beating them pretty decisively in a lot of areas. Even if NU gets back to 9-10 wins per, I don't know if they'll climb into the Top 10 on the recruiting trail. Oregon has leveraged Nike, location, facilities, NIL, etc, to land a couple Top 10 classes in recent years. It's not like Oregon has been winning at an extra elite level lately. Their 2014 CFP trip was their only CFP trip and that will be nine seasons ago in August. They've only won the PAC twice since then, and one of those was the COVID year.
  8. How would you measure a brand power battle between Oregon and Nebraska? TV audience? Appeal to recruits? Merch sales? Ticket prices for an opponent when they visit? NU has been irrelevant for nearly all of the adult years of U.S. millennials and they've been a total non-factor for the entire lives of Gen Z.
  9. It sounds like linear carriers that are not traditionally college football carriers (i.e. the CW or something like it.)
  10. Notre Dame is obviously the school to keep the closest eye on. They haven't extended their NBC deal yet, they hired an NBC Sports guy to be AD, and the Big Ten schools just got them an AAU invite - despite the Irish being outside the Top 100 nationally in R&D output. It feels like there are things happening behind the scenes. The expansion situation surrounding the Irish is hard to read. Warren mentioned other PAC schools as targets, by name, and I think the President at Northwestern mentioned travel concerns with the L.A. schools being on an island. The three PAC schools that help the "travel" concerns most would be Stanford, Cal, and ASU - the last of which just coincidentally (?) got an AAU invite. https://247sports.com/college/ucla/Article/Big-Ten-realignment-Northwestern-president-not-really-thrilled-w-210657008/ Theoretically, if the Big Ten added ND, Stanford, Cal, and ASU, they could seriously limit travel issues for existing members and help the two L.A. schools in that regard, at the same time. I don't know if ND actually pays those expansion bills, but we know there is an escalator in the B1G contract for ND already in place. Adding western inventory could bring ESPN back to the table for the late kick games, so who knows.
  11. When Larry Brown had their basketball team in the Top 25 for two or three years, they were selling out for basketball and those games had a good environment. I think they'd be front-runners for football, too. But I'll admit I have no proof of concept for that belief because they've never put together a multiple-season stretch of good football to test it out. Not since the death penalty, anyway.
  12. They'd just be a third version of TCU and Baylor. The big drawback with the Ponies is that they haven't experienced the extended period of winning that grew the fanbases in Ft. Worth and Waco. They probably need to have a stretch of double digit win seasons before they can get their bandwagon going and that stretch of success is very unlikely to happen in either the current PAC or the Big 12. They need to take advantage of being in the depleted AAC and grab some conference titles and expanded CFP trips.
  13. They hired their new AD away from NBC Sports. They just got an AAU invite despite not having the research metrics to justify it. Maybe that Big Ten leap is coming soon. If so, then it'll be interesting to see who comes with them. Stanford makes some sense and could go right away. USF and Miami each getting an AAU invite might be tea leaves worth reading into, also.
  14. They can't *really* get to B1G numbers, but they can definitely put some highly unrealistic "if... then" clauses into that contract. The media guys will push the unrealistic possibilities and it'll force those who want to exit to explain to those that don't, that the deal's numbers, as per the PAC friendly media, aren't real. "Why would we leave when we're going to get $55M per?" "We aren't." "It says here in the Canzano article that we are..." The SMU thing is interesting because it's exactly what the PAC needs. They need more inventory but they need that extra inventory to not be distributed into more slices (since that overcomes the benefit of the additional inventory.) SMU Is the kind of place that might sign off on something like that for a year. If the Ponies ever get their foot back into the P5 door, they'll take advantage. Their donors have been ready for the NIL era for forty years.
  15. He set up a big NIL operation, too. They're gonna be fine financially. The conference situation is a real problem, but I think their worst case scenario is that they keep something like status quo (outside a Top 2 conference, but selling Nike, facilities, conference titles, CFPs, etc.)
  16. The lottery payday at Oregon will keep working in their favor for decades. Their AD isn't in any danger of being poor even after Phil Knight passes. Nike HQ is probably not relocating, so the favored nation status that Oregon has with Nike will almost certainly continue long into the future.
  17. It will take a couple decades of neglect for Oregon to fall behind in the facilities arms race. Phil Knight put them in a position where all they need to do is maintain and they've got other big donors (even if none of them are on Phil Knight's level.) They're arguably the top brand in the PAC NW. They're probably the top brand in CFB without a title (bigger than some who do have a title.) They're Top 10 in win % nationally over the last 30 years. They've won under multiple HC's. I think some of you guys are working a little too hard to return their program to the 70s and 80s.
  18. I think this is the right concept. I'd probably tweak the division alignment a little bit. West: UW, UO, UU, BYU, UA, ASU Central: UH, BU, TCU, TTU, OSU, CU (throws CU a recruiting bone for splitting with the West schools) Misc.: KU, KSU, ISU, Cincy, WVU, UCF A 1-8-8 model would cycle through the conference more efficiently but in the Big 12's case I don't see that as an obvious positive. I think they'd be better off preserving some regionality to limit travel and keep fan interest higher. Assuming you had two games (one home, one away) from each of the other two divisions, you'd cycle through the whole league once every six years.
  19. If the Big 12 has an option to get UO and UW, they have to take them. They add too much not to take them. And I don't think those two can stay in the PAC if the 4C leave. The 4C would be leaving due to a bad rights deal, and that deal would not get better with MWC/AAC backfill. The media smoke on the Big Ten's interest in the PAC NW has been mixed, but the impression I get is that the LA. schools do not want them coming along. That probably matters at least a little bit. Maybe those two would be more okay with Stanford joining if/when ND does.
  20. It comes down to whether the Ducks and Huskies have an invite to the Big Ten. They can't stay in a PAC that lacks a competitive media deal and that just lost the 4C. If there is no B1G invite, where else are they going to go?
  21. If those are the numbers that get presented, I think the "Big 12 adds six from the PAC" option (4C + UO/UW) has to be on the table. Everyone who can get out will try to get out. That would be an unbelievable bounce-back for the Big 12. Competitively at least, they'd often be #1 in men's basketball and pushing for #2 in football in a lot of years.
  22. I agree that the Asia push seems dumb, but I have not read anywhere that the PAC presidents don't like it. Flying over to Shanghai or Tokyo seems like the sort of thing that academic types would love. If so, then that push probably continues whether Larry Scott is in charge or not. Just about the only way to grow their audience is to find a new one. The Big 12 is doing something similar by going after Mexican audiences. I went back and looked at the Hawaii stadium news after your post. Three weeks ago, they announced a 2028 completion date target, with $400M already appropriated by the governor for it. The stuff I'd read before had completion targeted for 2026. Either way, I guess Hawaii is still ahead of *most* of their other G5 peers in the facilities process but is probably not far enough along to be a very short term expansion option, unless the PAC fully implodes. I don't know about how things work in Hawaii but maybe skepticism is warranted until they finish the project. The overall plan sounds really good, though, with the stadium surrounded by an almost $2B entertainment district. I fully agree with the theory about Colorado recruiting the Big 12 vs. recruiting against the PAC. Selling Texas kids on scenery is easier than selling CA kids on it. I think Coach Prime could do very well on the recruiting trail in the Big 12.
  23. Yormark is a northeastern guy. He keeps talking up how basketball is undervalued, he wants the Big 12 playing in Madison Square Garden, etc. I'm not saying I agree with the strategy but I think that's what they're after.
  24. I think it's UConn, if Arizona says no. It might also be UConn as #15 if Zona says yes.
  25. CU's academic side (faculty / admins) would rather be in the PAC, rubbing elbows with Stanford, Cal, etc. CU's west coast donors probably still prefer that, too, though not as strongly as they did before SC/UCLA left.
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