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4thgenhorn

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Posts posted by 4thgenhorn

  1. 41 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

    Love puts as a hedge.  Let’s you stay aggressive and not worry as much.  

    All I know about puts is they cost a lot more than calls. I’ve sold puts, but in hind sight that was a lot of risk for small reward.   Let me know how you model a reasonable trade as I’m always interested in learning. 

  2. 1 hour ago, UTGrad98 said:

    You are right but I have 2 points to make on that . The first is I am not having to deal with the stress of having all of my money invested in high risk high reward stocks at a time where I believe the market is on its last legs . Second is there is peace of mind that comes with having your house paid off. I can get there in 4 years if I stay the course . My job stresses me out enough . If we were 2-3 years into a recovery it would be different but we aren’t . We are 10. That may not mean anything this time but historically it does mean something . 

    I paid off my house last year. Let me tell you, awesome feeling. I highly recommend it to anyone. 

    I don’t like the idea of market timing at all. I’ve never done it with much success except maybe 1-2% of my portfolio. I’m ballz deep 95% equities, the rest bonds and 6 months cash. I’m young enough to welcome any pullback, especially with no mortgage. Just gets me to buy more, which I did in last week, and will do more this month, and next, etc.

    last buys were NVDA...small pop so far this week, and I wrote $175 August calls for $4.50ish (closed today $162ish). Seems a pretty rich return for a few months time.  

  3. So I’ve been getting all sorts of calls last few months from computers telling me my ID has been hacked; it’s probably a scam. Also wife was part of the experian data breach. I’ve had 2-3 other companies in last year say data has been breached. So wondering if it’s time to start paying an ID theft protection service Co. 

    anyone using a service that they recommend?  Good or bad?

    Also thinking about freezing credit. I won’t need any credit for the foreseeable future so wondering if this is the right thing to do. Anyone with experience here also?  Good or bad?

  4. I coached two seasons. Get as many assistant coaches as you can to keep all the kids actively fielding grounders and playing catch, while you work with batters. Also, it a must to have a dedicated parent at first base keeping kids attention there. Occasionally the throw to first is actually accurate, and the kid better be looking. 

    Lastly make sure to emphasize not walking into the batter. Crazy how clueless 5 year olds with bats are, just swinging away. 

  5. BTW, this thread got me thinking, what are actual practical measures to use over time to maintain ideal weight?  Do any of you regularly get body fat measured?  Another approach, simple tape measure of chest waist, legs, arms, etc?  Shirtless photos like a beotch?  Clearly weight alone is insufficient, especially if lifting for strength gains. 

  6. 13 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

    Others disagree, but in my view, there is little difference between paying theta and accruing theta.  Properly-priced options make the payout the same.  You need an edge to make money, and systematically shorting out of the money calls is not an edge.  You'll make a small gain on the option 80% of the time and take it in the shorts (to varying degrees) 20% of the time, sometimes catastrophically.  (This isn't possible with covered calls, because you always have the shares to deliver when the value of the short call skyrockets because it went in the money.  You have effectively hedged the short calls with long stock.)

    Short the option or long the option, delta tells the market's view on where the underlying will be at expiration.  A long call at 20 delta has little chance of expiring in the money, so in return you don't pay much for it and the upside is huge if in fact the underlying shoots up.  A short call at 20 delta also has little chance of expiring in the money, so in return you don't make much if the underlying doesn't move up and potentially get crushed if the underlying shoots up.  It's all risk/reward.

    An added flavor is the concept of being short gamma if you're short theta.  Gamma is the sensitivity of delta to price.  Say you have some room between the current price of the stock and the strike of that short call.  When the underlying starts to inch up, you "gain" value on the short call due to theta decay, but you lose value due to gamma effects.  You're picking up delta (absolute value), which is bad when you're short delta.  It's the curvature of the P/L curve.

     

    You are prob right. However I’ve had very bad experiences early on in my trading career buying out of the money calls. 

    So I moved to selling puts and calls a number of years ago. It’s only on a small percentage of my portfolio and I only do a handful of these a year. However, I view it as real life learning that I can apply the rest of my life. Hopefully I can get better over the decades; you’ve helped me this week for sure!  

    Also I don’t view missing out on a huge upside as a big loss, of course it will annoy. Instead I view it as defining a sell strategy for a profit which is a good problem to have. Otherwise I don’t have a sell strategy, just hold to infinity?  I’m really bad at locking in gains when they happen, sometimes letting an equity round trip to a buy point or worse. 

    Another thing coming to mind with all your Greek definitions is to incorporate the options view into picking the equity to buy. If options maket are showing a really highly priced beta on an equity, probably a good equity to think about buying outright. 

  7. 7 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

    Well, assume the calls are priced correctly.  A 20 delta call option has a 20% chance of expiring in the money (and a ~ 40% chance of getting hit some time before expiration).  Is it worth it for you to bank a little extra cash on the regular but risk the inability to take part in a big pop to the upside?  For most people, it is (although most people don't write covered calls, and I doubt many even know they exist).  It's been awhile but there are studies and even ETFs that mimic covered call writing at something like 2% out of the money, and they tend to outperform the index, at least in certain circumstances.  They definitely reduce volatility.

    If I had the discipline to focus on that play, I'd probably write the 20 delta calls and roll up and out (taking the loss on the option but maintaining upside on the underlying) if they go in the money prior to expiration.  That's not advice, though, it just feels somewhat prudent.  I think.

    JJ, appreciate the thoughts.  What do you mean by a 20 delta?  Help me with the definition  

     

    As as I said I’m not a pro, just picking what I view as reasonable 2 month return. And I like collecting the time decay. This example fits what I’m typically looking for in terms of percentages. 

     

    What would be a 20 delta on VTI?  I’ve not sold covered on ETF, but would love to as I can write many more. 

  8. It’s been a good week so I wrote covered calls today on DIS. $145 August 16, $2.25 per contract. 

    This trade is in the range of what I’ve been looking for: ~7% return over today’s value for 70 days. I’m a total novice so I manually input these values into excel to find what I’m looking for. I would love to hear if people automate their models with real-time inputs, or if they use tools. This is something I’ve had in back of mind for years, but not seriously investigated. 

  9. I totally understand why some people let others do the investing. If it’s not your passion or you don’t have the time, then by all means go for it. 

     

    I’ve always enjoyed it personally. Definitely find it more interesting than straight gambling or sports betting. I’ve done fine, no idea if I’ve outperformed over the long haul.  Probably could have made a career in WS if my path had been slightly different and I felt like leaving Texas. 

     

    Anyways looking to buy more soon, like Friday’s pay day  

     

  10. 2 hours ago, tucker said:

    Anyone riding the Telsa penny stock?

    Unfortunately yes. What’s interesting is how all the analysts in unison lowered price targets. If there is ever is price reversal based on all the negativity, then I guess that could be a sign of a bottom. Like today’s action. I’m probably too cowardly or too wise to double down though. 

  11. Bought my 3 yr old daughter a purple Eukelele this past weekend.  Challenge of course is I don’t play Eukelele. So I picked up a basics book and will try to learn a few cords. Never know, could be next Taylor Swift. 

    • Like 1
  12. On 5/14/2019 at 4:54 PM, ChiTownDoc said:

    Highly doubt that.  

    Went ahead and put some $ to work today in VTI. Given how poorly I typically time my buys, it will prob be down big tomorrow. So, I took one for the team to give you all a better cost.  You are welcome!

  13. I think Danys flipping was really driven by the loss of her Dragon right before. She thinks of them as her children after all. They could have done more to build pressure on the turn, but then maybe not a surprise?

     

    I enjoyed the episode overall. Sure they could have done more,  it they are really wrapping it up quick now. 

     

    Only one episode left for Sansa to show her Tatas. Fingers crossed. 

  14. Anyone going to try to sell today or tomorrow and perhaps buy back in lower?  I’ve never successfully done something like that, but curious if anyone out there is nimble enough. If so, what rules would you use. 

     

    I was 5 min away from deploying my loose cash last week. Very thankful I did not. Soon I’ll be looking at one of:

     

    AMZN

    DIS

    PAYPAL

    or simply VTI and forget it. 

  15. 3 hours ago, Jerry Callo said:

    I've gotten pretty efficient at body transformation. Unfortunately, transformation goes both ways. Starting the downward trend today, again.c615550df966fe47aff4fd43e9e71e13.jpg

    Looks like during your bulking phases you also stop logging weight regularly. Maybe small tweak of continuous weighting’s, even if it’s bad news, will help during those periods to get you back on track. 

  16. So question for OVER training. If you hit a muscle group and take it too failure with low rep high weight, how many days until hitting that group again?  I read recently only do that group once a week; that’s if your goal is gaining muscle mass, not talking about a weight loss goal. In the past I probably hit same group to failure at least twice a week...wondering if I’ve been over training. 

  17. 10 - my boy will be accepted to UTD, but not UTA. I tell him to transfer after 2 years. He disobeys me and I drink even more.

    20 - it gets hot as f@ck. Battery powered self driving cars are everywhere. US adopts pollution tax; everything that pollutes costs a lot more. Paper cup of water is $10, plastic bottle of water is $10,000.  Wind powered kWh is cheap; gasoline gallon of energy costs $50,000 cause you are ruining the world A-hole. 

    30 - 2049, aliens land on earth; we shoot them and they blow us all up. RIP

  18. Enjoyed the episode, but a few I think I liked more, although shorter sequences. Recall Jon Snows first battle with a WW and discovers his sword is awesome and the kids got turned by the NK and they ate the lady. Badass. 

    Also the battle at the wall vs. the wildlings was pretty strong and well done.  This was pretty good for an epic zombie battle, if that’s your thing.  The dragon battling was a bit weak.

    Love Arya and the kill stroke.  My beef is the intensity wasn’t there cause Bran was at stake at that moment. As others have said, he’s been pretty pointless except for Snows origin. He was even left out a whole season. 

    The Dothraki charge could make sense in that it was kinda cool visually for the director, and how do you fit all the open plains horsemen behind Winterfell walls?  

    id like episode six to end with Sansa submitting to Tyrion given he’s “the best of em all”

     

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