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4thgenhorn

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Posts posted by 4thgenhorn

  1. Been a tough week. Both kids have head colds, so just taking care of them. I don’t think it’s Corona. So we are truly not leaving the house.
     

    I already took the week off for Spring break, but not supposed to go to office until April sometime. Did some academics with kids, but really it’s deteriorating into TV and video games. 
     

    been cooking and drinking a lot. Trying to work out at home but not as fun as gym. I miss all those yoga pant asses, the simple things in life. Need to come up with some more productive home projects as I’m truly sitting here for another month. 

  2. So question for intermittent fasting. If I work out in AM during my fasting period, will I loose/limit muscle mass if I don’t eat before the workout?  I usually will eat a shake and lunch immediately afterwards, but just coffee beforehand  

     

    Goal is to add muscle/strength, while losing maybe 5 lbs. I’m fortunate to be lean genetically and in my early years struggled to add weight. 
     

    maybe other question is can you loose fat at same time as adding muscle?  Or better to separate?

    ive been doing the intermittent fasting for a year or so. Eat like crap 10 hrs a day, nothing the rest. So far I’ve lost a few lbs and strongest I’ve ever been.  But recently a bunch of peeps told me it’s a sin to workout on empty stomach. 

  3. I’ve been thinking this was just another flu until last couple of weeks. I asked a couple of Dr friends if I should be worried, and both surprised me with emphatic yes. 
     

    Somewhat interesting article on flattening the curve and it’s affects, and why it’s so important to slow the spread. 
     

    https://healthblog.uofmhealth.org/wellness-prevention/flattening-curve-for-covid-19-what-does-it-mean-and-how-can-you-help

     

    I was also surprised to hear from A number of peeps in last 24 hrs who believe it to be man-made Weapon from China, intentionally or unintentionally released. I came to Surly to find the answers...did China make this bug to kill off olds?  Not very natural for a bug to only kill old people, and like zero kids.  I’m sure there are some interesting theories here. 

  4. I just put some back in...F it...

    added to kids 529, did my 2020 IRA. 

    Im sure my action will signal the next leg down. But it sure looks like fear is at a pretty high level. I mean is there not going to be life as we know it in the future?

    I’ll be buying more in March, regardless of up or down. 
     

    • Like 1
  5. The only indicator I’ve used before to “predict” market direction is what investors business daily teaches. Essentially looking for consecutive days of increasing volume, on the upside or the downside. It’s not perfect, but it’s all I know. So I’ll be looking for two or more up days with increasing above average volume. This is why I sold some Friday, consecutive down days with increasing volume. You can read the books by Bill O’Neil to learn more. 
     

    Or just dollar cost average in at a random period of your choosing. 

  6. I’ve liquidated a bit more today...highest percent in cash I’ve ever had in my life. Also rebalanced 401k to 15% bonds from 5%. 
     

    My timing is almost always terrible, so feel free to take the other side of the trade. I don’t have any quantitative reasons other than things have been outstanding last 4 months...by taking some off I can let the rest ride. 
     

    Also today is second down day in increasing volume...sometimes that’s start of a correction...sometimes it’s a buying opportunity. Flip a coin. The correct decision for today will be obvious in six months. 

  7. Good gracious on TSLA. Was fortunate to buy some a couple years back. Thought it was a bad idea so only made a small bet. It immediately was under water and stayed that way until last month or so...guess just lucky that I didn’t harvest losses last year like I was thinking. I should prob sell at least 1/3 tomorrow. 
     

    problem is what to do with excess cash once sold. Was Friday the market bottom?  No equities seem to be in good bases at the moment. 

  8. On 7/2/2019 at 9:52 PM, Bozo_Casanova said:

    See I don’t see selling puts as risk. I see it as the lowest risk thing I can do, because in the worst case scenario I wind up with an equity I was willing to buy at that price. It’s insurance. I’m underwriting low probability events. It’s not a question of risk it’s a question of capital reserves.

    Let me expand on my statement for puts as more risk to reward than calls:

    for selling the Put, assuming at-the-money, you may collect 3%. Max upside is 3%, downside theoretical risk is 97%. Also time-value of capital reserves. 

     

    For buying a call, ATM, it may cost 2% (calls typically cheaper than puts).  So downside is 2%, with theoretical Infintity upside.  

    Ergo, infinity > 3 % on the upside; 97% > 2% on the downside.  I’d hate to be waiting to invest while the market moves higher  

     

    Or if you go with selling OOM calls, you might cap your gains, say 6-8%, while collecting 1-2%.  I like this strategy as it’s defined returns done quarterly; not too bad over a lifetime.

    Bottom line though both are conservative strategies, and you are usually making money either way. Of course you can always pick a historical example which shows one beating the other. 

     

    Markets up up this morning. Glad I’m in. Insert strippers-and-blow gif. 

  9. 5 hours ago, hornfan785 said:

    https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q2-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries

     

    Tesla Q2 2019 Vehicle Production & Deliveries

    PALO ALTO, Calif., July 02, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- In the second quarter, we achieved record production of 87,048 vehicles and record deliveries of approximately 95,200 vehicles. In addition, we made significant progress streamlining our global logistics and delivery operations at higher volumes, enabling cost efficiencies and improvements to our working capital position.

        Production Deliveries  
      Model S/X 14,517 17,650  
      Model 3 72,531 77,550  
      Total 87,048 95,200  

    Orders generated during the quarter exceeded our deliveries, thus we are entering Q3 with an increase in our order backlog. We believe we are well positioned to continue growing total production and deliveries in Q3.

    Customer vehicles in transit at the end of the quarter were over 7,400. Due to the order-to-VIN matching process we described in our Q1 2019 Shareholder Letter, which we extended to Model S and Model X in Q2 to improve process efficiency, this metric has become less relevant. As a result, we do not plan to disclose the customer vehicles in transit metric going forward.

    ***************

    Our net income and cash flow results will be announced along with the rest of our financial performance when we announce Q2 earnings. Our delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct. We count a produced but undelivered vehicle to be in transit if the related customer has placed an order or paid the full purchase price for such vehicle. Final numbers could vary by up to 0.5% or more. Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company’s financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles.

    Forward-Looking Statements

    Certain statements herein, including statements regarding expected future vehicle deliveries and production, are “forward-looking statements” that are subject to risks and uncertainties. These forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations. Various important factors could cause actual results to differ materially, including the risks identified in our SEC filings. Tesla disclaims any obligation to update this information.

    Looks like solid results to me. Tesla’s are so common here in Austin; seems a pretty obvious trend here. Wish I had bought more shares sub$200...oh well. 

  10. 41 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

    Love puts as a hedge.  Let’s you stay aggressive and not worry as much.  

    All I know about puts is they cost a lot more than calls. I’ve sold puts, but in hind sight that was a lot of risk for small reward.   Let me know how you model a reasonable trade as I’m always interested in learning. 

  11. 1 hour ago, UTGrad98 said:

    You are right but I have 2 points to make on that . The first is I am not having to deal with the stress of having all of my money invested in high risk high reward stocks at a time where I believe the market is on its last legs . Second is there is peace of mind that comes with having your house paid off. I can get there in 4 years if I stay the course . My job stresses me out enough . If we were 2-3 years into a recovery it would be different but we aren’t . We are 10. That may not mean anything this time but historically it does mean something . 

    I paid off my house last year. Let me tell you, awesome feeling. I highly recommend it to anyone. 

    I don’t like the idea of market timing at all. I’ve never done it with much success except maybe 1-2% of my portfolio. I’m ballz deep 95% equities, the rest bonds and 6 months cash. I’m young enough to welcome any pullback, especially with no mortgage. Just gets me to buy more, which I did in last week, and will do more this month, and next, etc.

    last buys were NVDA...small pop so far this week, and I wrote $175 August calls for $4.50ish (closed today $162ish). Seems a pretty rich return for a few months time.  

  12. So I’ve been getting all sorts of calls last few months from computers telling me my ID has been hacked; it’s probably a scam. Also wife was part of the experian data breach. I’ve had 2-3 other companies in last year say data has been breached. So wondering if it’s time to start paying an ID theft protection service Co. 

    anyone using a service that they recommend?  Good or bad?

    Also thinking about freezing credit. I won’t need any credit for the foreseeable future so wondering if this is the right thing to do. Anyone with experience here also?  Good or bad?

  13. I coached two seasons. Get as many assistant coaches as you can to keep all the kids actively fielding grounders and playing catch, while you work with batters. Also, it a must to have a dedicated parent at first base keeping kids attention there. Occasionally the throw to first is actually accurate, and the kid better be looking. 

    Lastly make sure to emphasize not walking into the batter. Crazy how clueless 5 year olds with bats are, just swinging away. 

  14. BTW, this thread got me thinking, what are actual practical measures to use over time to maintain ideal weight?  Do any of you regularly get body fat measured?  Another approach, simple tape measure of chest waist, legs, arms, etc?  Shirtless photos like a beotch?  Clearly weight alone is insufficient, especially if lifting for strength gains. 

  15. 13 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

    Others disagree, but in my view, there is little difference between paying theta and accruing theta.  Properly-priced options make the payout the same.  You need an edge to make money, and systematically shorting out of the money calls is not an edge.  You'll make a small gain on the option 80% of the time and take it in the shorts (to varying degrees) 20% of the time, sometimes catastrophically.  (This isn't possible with covered calls, because you always have the shares to deliver when the value of the short call skyrockets because it went in the money.  You have effectively hedged the short calls with long stock.)

    Short the option or long the option, delta tells the market's view on where the underlying will be at expiration.  A long call at 20 delta has little chance of expiring in the money, so in return you don't pay much for it and the upside is huge if in fact the underlying shoots up.  A short call at 20 delta also has little chance of expiring in the money, so in return you don't make much if the underlying doesn't move up and potentially get crushed if the underlying shoots up.  It's all risk/reward.

    An added flavor is the concept of being short gamma if you're short theta.  Gamma is the sensitivity of delta to price.  Say you have some room between the current price of the stock and the strike of that short call.  When the underlying starts to inch up, you "gain" value on the short call due to theta decay, but you lose value due to gamma effects.  You're picking up delta (absolute value), which is bad when you're short delta.  It's the curvature of the P/L curve.

     

    You are prob right. However I’ve had very bad experiences early on in my trading career buying out of the money calls. 

    So I moved to selling puts and calls a number of years ago. It’s only on a small percentage of my portfolio and I only do a handful of these a year. However, I view it as real life learning that I can apply the rest of my life. Hopefully I can get better over the decades; you’ve helped me this week for sure!  

    Also I don’t view missing out on a huge upside as a big loss, of course it will annoy. Instead I view it as defining a sell strategy for a profit which is a good problem to have. Otherwise I don’t have a sell strategy, just hold to infinity?  I’m really bad at locking in gains when they happen, sometimes letting an equity round trip to a buy point or worse. 

    Another thing coming to mind with all your Greek definitions is to incorporate the options view into picking the equity to buy. If options maket are showing a really highly priced beta on an equity, probably a good equity to think about buying outright. 

  16. 7 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

    Well, assume the calls are priced correctly.  A 20 delta call option has a 20% chance of expiring in the money (and a ~ 40% chance of getting hit some time before expiration).  Is it worth it for you to bank a little extra cash on the regular but risk the inability to take part in a big pop to the upside?  For most people, it is (although most people don't write covered calls, and I doubt many even know they exist).  It's been awhile but there are studies and even ETFs that mimic covered call writing at something like 2% out of the money, and they tend to outperform the index, at least in certain circumstances.  They definitely reduce volatility.

    If I had the discipline to focus on that play, I'd probably write the 20 delta calls and roll up and out (taking the loss on the option but maintaining upside on the underlying) if they go in the money prior to expiration.  That's not advice, though, it just feels somewhat prudent.  I think.

    JJ, appreciate the thoughts.  What do you mean by a 20 delta?  Help me with the definition  

     

    As as I said I’m not a pro, just picking what I view as reasonable 2 month return. And I like collecting the time decay. This example fits what I’m typically looking for in terms of percentages. 

     

    What would be a 20 delta on VTI?  I’ve not sold covered on ETF, but would love to as I can write many more. 

  17. It’s been a good week so I wrote covered calls today on DIS. $145 August 16, $2.25 per contract. 

    This trade is in the range of what I’ve been looking for: ~7% return over today’s value for 70 days. I’m a total novice so I manually input these values into excel to find what I’m looking for. I would love to hear if people automate their models with real-time inputs, or if they use tools. This is something I’ve had in back of mind for years, but not seriously investigated. 

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