Trynapigdog
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Posts posted by Trynapigdog
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Ooof. 1-3 yesterday. Only two picks for today, 8/10/23
MIN/DET -105
WAS/PHI +102 -
Picks for 8/9/23
CIN/MIA YRFI -127
CLE/TOR NRFI -120
NYM/CHC YRFI -112
ARI/LAD YRFI -121 -
Went 3-1 yesterday plus one rainout/no action. Last Friday we went 0-4. System is 27-22 entering 8/8/23.
Picks for 8/8/23
DET/MIN NRFI -125
TB/STL YRFI -108
PIT/ATL NRFI +115
BOS/KC YRFI -125
CLE/TOR NRFI -113 -
Picks for 8/7/23
WAS/PHI NRFI +114
MIA/CIN YRFI -127
ATL/PIT NRFI -105
NYY/CHW NRFI -121
SF/LAA YRFI +106 -
Went 3-1 yesterday. System is 24-17.
NRFI picks for 8/4/23.
KC/PHI NRFI +107
NYM/BAL YRFI -118
MIS/TX NRFI -105
LAD/SD YRFI -110 -
System went 4-2 yesterday if you were able to get the team specific YRFI, otherwise went 3-2.
Picks for 8/3/23
TOR/BOS NRFI -118
STL/MIN NRFI -104
LAA/STL NRFI -120
LAD/OAK YRFI -118
System is 21-16. -
Damn. I forgot to post picks for yesterday. System went 3-2 yesterday.
8/1/23
MIN/PHI NRFI -130 —— win
PIT/DET -110 YRFI —- lose
ATL/LAA YRFI -109 —- win
SEA/BOS NRFI -125 —- lose
SF/ARI NRFI -135 —-lose
System is 17-14 entering Wednesday, 8/2/23.
Picks for 8/2/23
ATL/LAA YRFI -130
SEA/BOS NRFI -118
MIA/PHI NRFI -130
NYY/TB NRFI -122
STL/MIN NRFI +100
Also, SD Padres team-specific YRFI vs the Rockies +145. He recommended hedging with SD/COL NRFI. I don’t see the team specific NRFI on my book right now so I can’t play that one.
Good luck all. -
NRFI system went 13-9 last week.
Picks for 7/31/23:
BAL/TOR NRFI +105
LAA/ATL YRFI -127
CLE/HOU YRFI -118
BOS/SEA NRFI -120 -
Shit. Got swept yesterday (CLE/CHW NRFI; WAS/NYM YRFI; game 1 LAA YRFI; game 2 LAA/DET YRFI)
Back at it again today. Here are the picks for 7/28/23.
PHI/PIT NRFI -105
TB/HOU YRFI -115
TEX/SD NRFI -115
CIN/LAD YRFI -140
BOS/SF YRFI -
Billy Ward’s NRFI picks 7/26/23
MIN/SEA NRFI -115
SD/PIT YRFI -110
PHI/BAL NRFI +105
DET/LAA YRFI -104
CHW/CHC YRFI -104 -
I’ve been tailing Billy Ward from Action network on his NRFI/YRFI bets throughout the week. His description is below. I don’t get to them everyday but today his system went 4 - 1. I missed out on the 4-0 opportunity yesterday. The juice can hurt if you hit a bad losing streak but overall it’s been a good strategy. I’ll try and keep track of the system on here and see what shakes out.
————O ————
The Model.
The process is relatively simple. First, I start by assuming that the full game (implied) run totals for either team are roughly efficient.
As mentioned above, that tends to be the case more often than not. This saves me the trouble of trying to predict the total runs scored in the game — and allows me to focus strictly on the “when” rather than “how many.”
Next, I built a database of pitchers performance the first time through the order, relative to their overall stats. Since the latter is presumably baked into the full game total, I wanted to figure out if those runs are more likely to come early or late.
Most — but not all — MLB starters do somewhat better early in games, but with some variance in just how much. The model uses xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching) as the ERA predictor of choice.
That’s only half of the equation, though, with the offenses making up the other half. To do this, I looked at what percentage of a team’s total runs is produced by the top three batters in the lineup.
While a first inning run scored, by definition, needs at least four hitters to come to the plate, one of the first three has to actually score it. The metric of choice here is wRC+, based on the projected lineup for the day from each team.
This is a bit of a tradeoff, as lineups (and run totals) can shift throughout the day, especially if significant contributors miss time.
However, in my experience the inefficiency of the morning lines more than makes up for the leakage in the model. With that said, exercise caution if, say, Mike Trout is listed as questionable for the night’s game.
The Picks
With all of the picks below, I’ll include the pick, the best line and the threshold I’d bet it to. These will go up in the morning, so if any major news breaks between publishing and when you read it, be sure to consider that.
Infrequently, rather than betting on the traditional YRFI/NRFI, the pick will be on one team or the other specifically to score a run, which as of this writing is only a betting option at DraftKings.
Since the model handles each team individually, sometimes one team is projecting for a greater proportion of the “run equity” in the first inning than the betting lines are accounting for.
————O ————
Picks for 7/24/23
MIN/SEA NRFI -120 - win
HOU/TEX YRFI -106 - win
MIL/CIN YRFI -115 - win
TOR/LAD YRFI -129 - win
System record: 4 - 0 - 0
Picks for 7/25/23
DET/LAA YRFI +100 - win
NYY/NYM YRFI +100 - win
CHC/CHW YFRI -108 - lose
PIT/SD NRFI -105 - win
TOR/LAD YRFI -115 - win
System record: 8 - 1 - 0- 1
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3 more clubs given away and I hope my free swing tip helps. Those clubs have plenty of good hits in them
I have one more set of ping wedges and 1 Cleveland classic RTG 60, if anyone wants them
The swing tip was showing promise at the driving range. I’m looking forward to putting it all together on the course this weekend. Thanks again for the clubs! -
I’m keeping the three wood. You’ll like the wedges, they’re still full of great shots
Right on. Thanks!- 1
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I’ll be in town Easter weekend., which clubs do you want ?
How about a 52, a 56, and the 3 wood. -
Spring cleaning some, these need to go ….
two sets of ping tour model wedges 52, 56, 60 (not matched sets) and a cleaveland classic RTG 60. All need new grips. Faces are near perfect. Very good hitting clubs
free to anyone in the Houston or San Antonio area. Austin area, let’s meet for a bbq lunch ?
I’m in San Antonio and am happy to help take those off your hands. -
You can car camp at Kerrville Schreiner Park and float for a bit. They also have cabins to rent.
Nichols Landing is a day trip spot but get there when they open because they only have 20 parking spots and the park fills up quick. -
Vancouver, BC or Mexico City
Both are outstanding.
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I have never felt the need for additional empty carbs while eating Migas. Isn't that the point of cooking in the tortilla chips?
The point of cooking in the tortilla chips is to stretch the meal to feed more people. Abuelita ain’t counting carbs. Pendejete.- 1
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Nah. Fuck that. I’ll take a chorizo, bean, and cheese and a papa ranchera with bacon. That’ll cost you $1.99/ taco after 11 am at Taqueria Jalisco Chápala #3.
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Now I’m butt naked in a Lamborghini, and these muthafuckers can’t see me.
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The seawall off Whitecap has a nice parking lot, restrooms, and showers to rinse off. No parking pass needed since you’re not parking on the beach. It’s a few hundred yards north of the old Holiday Inn and usually isn’t as crowded as north packery channel (JP Luby). Bob Hall pier has nice table, no parking pass required, and a nice little bar and grill on the pier.
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Lots of good recommendations here. I’m a fan of Pete’s Tako House, Garcia’s, Regio Cafe, El Milagrito, Taco Haven but I prefer Taqueria Chápala on McCulloch. La Fogata (near the north I-10 & 410 area) has great margaritas and enchiladas.
Biga and Battalion are my favorite places downtown.
At The Pearl: Il Sogno has great Italian; La Gloria has an interesting variety of Mexican dishes and good margaritas; The Granary has decent BBQ but relatively small portions. Down on Grayson is probably a good place if you have kids (outdoor seating with space). Grayze (on Grayson St. a few blocks east of The Pearl) is solid.
Additional things: watch the bats come out from under the I-35 bridge at sunset (grab a drink or two from La Gloria, walk down to the Riverwalk and head south, grab a seat at one of the benches after the boatramp, enjoy*).
*Unless the violinist is practicing; we saw about 20 bats compared to the thousands we saw the previous week.
MLB Betting 2022
in Gambling
Posted
Picks for 8/11
BAL/SEA NRFI -110
PIT/CIN YRFI -113
BOS/DET +100
HOU/LAA -110
CHW/MIL -113