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USC Traveler

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Everything posted by USC Traveler

  1. To your KU and UK examples above, UNC and UVA would fit perfectly into those roles in the BIG or SEC.
  2. It would, but don't you think B12 would rather take all 4 ? That would give them 7 schools for the late night window (including BYU). Add Cal and SDSU for CA access and you've got 9 teams that can play in that window. If each of those teams plays 3 times in that window, that would fill up 14 weeks of AfterDark games without involving anyone East of CU. Seems like that would be revenue neutral, and possibly additive, for the B12, especially when adding in UW, UO, Utah vs existing B12 schools.
  3. That would be worth it for the aggy meltdown alone, when they finally realized their true place in the SEC pecking order- right next to Mizzou.😂
  4. I tend to think SEC coaches would be much more concerned about legitimizing FSU as an SEC team than they would be about OSU and UM having a game in FL every three years, but your point is valid. There's a lot of meat on the bone to chew on in that debate. Agreed on GT. No shot at the SEC. And Miami may very well prefer the BIG. They were in the Big East by themselves, so the geographic isolation wouldn't be anything new. Even with FSU in conference, they're still geographically isolated now.
  5. The mod on the AZ board has said for months that it was going to be UA and CU, and the biggest skeptic flipped a full 180 today, talking about the fact that he of all people got this info is some sort of act of God. CU's prior B12 ties, lack of success in the PAC, AD debt and Coach Prime's TX ties all point towards B12. They're all-in on Prime to try to position themselves for a future BIG invite. They have a 10 year window to have any shot whatsoever, and need money plus exposure, which they're not going to get in the WAC10. UA's high level of unhappiness with PAC leadership has been second only to USC over the last 10 plus years. Hoops first school, and next closest after CU to the B12. B12 makes all the sense in the world for them- more money, better exposure, and exponentially better games in the sport they care about the most. // ASU won't be far behind those two, and may even come along with them, as the more schools that leave at once, the more it destabilizes the WAC-PAC. B12 definitely wouldn't say "No" to ASU. Adding all three puts a lot of pressure on Utah, UW and UO. I think they all end up in B12 at that point, bringing Cal along to keep a recruiting presence in CA. Cal is completely fucked financially, so they'll have to say yes. Academic snobbery only goes so far. Cal joining would also get SDSU to join if offered. Stanford becomes the big question mark. Do they do independent with a scheduling agreement with the BIG that ensures they come in as ND's partner when that inevitably happens ?
  6. Agree 100%. There is a pot of gold down the line where the expanded P2 and B12 take control of the tournament. This is probably why they’re talking about going to 80 teams- they’ll run the tournament, but give every conference winner an autobid to ensure Cinderella stories and avoid lawsuits. Have you heard anything from Sankey on this, or are you saying “watch what he says in the future” ?
  7. There’s no doubt the conference office would take them. Would the actual schools (who all recruit in FL) want to turn FSU and Miami into much more formidable competitors by making them SEC members ? If the SEC keeps them out, they’re much easier to recruit against in the BIG, which SEC coaches will portray as a second-rate conference, much as they do with the ACC now. Would Saban, Smart, Freeze, etc and their successors rather recruit against them as BIG or SEC members. I have no doubt as to the answer. Sankey has a lot of sway, but he ultimately works for the schools. If they don’t want it to happen, then it won’t happen. FSU isn’t UT. It’s definitely not a slam dunk.
  8. This is a potential problem, but this is one of the reasons I don't think Vandy, MS State, UK, IN, NW, Rutgers, etc will get kicked out of their conferences in the future as a lot of people have predicted. Those teams are getting paid to take the Ls, as Bud Elliot says. NFL has 32 teams. So will the BIG/SEC in 2024, with many of those in markets without an NFL team. There's room for more expansion. With a BIG18/20/24 and SEC18/20/22, we'd end up with somewhere between 36-44 teams, with both conferences having a number of teams getting paid to take Ls and keep the top brands's records looking better.
  9. I don't think ESPN is under any delusion that the ACC is going to last past 2036. They see where this is going, and are a huge force that has driven consolidation. As you pointed out, they are retrenching their spending on sports rights, and the ACC is a bargain. They have no motivation to give that up. When the ACC comes apart, if ESPN and Sankey can get the schools on board to offer FSU, FSU will go SEC, no matter how they feel about ESPN. The big question I keep coming back to is will the SEC schools want to add FSU and Clemson and make them much more formidable as competitors ? None of us know the answer, and it will be a long time before we find out imo.
  10. Those numbers, and the context of how they compare to other games that day, are brutal. You'd make a good trial lawyer my friend. // I do think FSU and Miami will be worth the type of money that other BIG teams get- not because of their tv value alone, but their holistic value- massive new state for BTN, and access to FL recruiting (for both athletes and students), in addition to the value they would bring as a tv draw vs OSU, UM, USC, PSU. None of those things apply to the SEC, though, as they are already in FL, and as you pointed out in an earlier post, the SEC will already have 8 top tiers brands when UT and OU join. The BIG only has four- OSU, UM, USC, PSU. There is a clear drop to Wiscy, MSU, NE and IA, so adding FSU and Miami to BIG slate would be a bigger boost for the BIG than for the SEC. I agree with TK, though, that the BIG would prefer not to add them on an island. The BIG's best shot at landing the FL schools would be to bring in all of UNC, UVA, Duke, GT, FSU and Miami as a block. This would end the ACC and force ND to the BIG. On the whole, the BIG would gain a lot of value adding all of those states for the markets and recruiting. It will be interesting to see how much playing defense is worth to ESPN/SEC in 10-12 years when the ACC deal starts getting closer to the end.
  11. My version- "Google Texas Tech co-eds and then google aggy Jizz Jars. "
  12. It's crazy that people are trying to push that storyline. I think of UT going to the SEC as getting their #2 and #3 rivals back.
  13. I think the football schools will leave the ACC as soon as they can, and for UVA and UNC will go BIG or SEC at that point- the money difference and perception of being in the top tier will be too much to pass up. But I agree that ESPN has zero motivation to let schools out of the GOR, so I don’t think any of this happens until the mid 2030s, when the GOR is close to expiring.
  14. 😂 For me, I love them. I just don’t know how popular they are with kids from the Deep South.
  15. No doubt- I was factoring that in. Because that is the question. My pitch as an SEC coach- "Do you want to eat southern food and play in warm weather vs UGA, LSU, UT and OU, or do you want to eat bratwurst and play in the snow in Michigan and Minnesota ?"
  16. This is a big part of what makes realignment so fascinating- different motivations and goals for different parties that are involved. No doubt the SEC office and ESPN will want FSU and Miami in the SEC- for all the reasons you and I have listed. But I keep coming back to the fact that Sankey ultimately works for the schools, and the schools will look at this from a "What's best for us ?" pov. If you're an SEC school, it will be a lot easier to recruit against FSU if they're in the BIG than if they're in the SEC. They don't need FSU to get access to FL- they already have it. If FSU is in the SEC, they become much more formidable to recruit against. Same goes for Miami. There is strategic value for the conference in keeping the BIG out of FL, but I think coaches and ADs are going to be more concerned about turning FSU into a legit competitor vs how many 4-5 stars they'll lose to the BIG. I have no idea how it will turn out, but I think it's going to be a battle within the SEC. // Agreed on Miami- their admin, student base, donors, etc are more aligned culturally to the BIG than the SEC. // I do think SEC fans will be excited about Clemson joining because they've been a legit competitor to the SEC, whereas most SEC fans I know don't think much of FSU. Look at them as a little brother. The conference office will want both- but Clemson and FSU in the SEC makes them both tougher competitors and guarantees more losses within the SEC for the existing teams. Not a slamdunk for the SEC schools to add them the way adding UT and OU was.
  17. I forgot about that one!😂 The list is so long it becomes hard to keep them all straight.
  18. Agreed. It will be just another NY6 bowl for this next CFP cycle. In the long run, I think we're eventually headed to an AFL (BIG)- NFL (SEC) model, with the Rose and Sugar as CCGs for the B18/20/24 and the SEC18/20/22. 8 team playoff in each conference, with early rounds on campus or in ATL, DFW, Indy and Vegas. Winners of Rose and Sugar meet in the "Super College Bowl" Once the players become employees, the money differences are going to become too great between the BIG/SEC and the B12 and WAC10/ACC remnants. The B12 (especially if Yormark sticks around) is in a great position to absorb all the schools that have value that don't make it into the BIG/SEC, and create a coast to coast league that would have a lot of value to media companies. Current B12 (perhaps minus TCU), plus Four Corners, UW, UO, Cal, SDSU, Louisville, Pitt, and possibly VT and NC State.) Fill in with Memphis and USF types to get to 24 teams- create four regional divisions, but with NFL-style regular cross-over. That's a fun group of teams to watch that would pull enough ratings to bring in solid money.
  19. The "greatest hits" of the PAC Presidents, Tennis Larry and Klownkoff rivals "Hot Rocks", "Legend", and "ELV1S" for top greatest hits collection: Starting a conference network without ESPN or Fox as a partner. Rejecting LHN and therefore blowing up PAC16- they were never going to get an equivalent chance to expand with two Blue Bloods. Rejecting OU and OSU a year or two later. Focus on Olympic sports in all media and programming on PACNet to the detriment of football. Scott trying to create parity through brutal scheduling for the PAC's best teams. Welcome to the playoff drought. Klownkoff failing to realize that USC had been unhappy for more than a decade, and was seriously looking at the BIG. Klownkoff's delusions: $40m per team because the BIG's media deal increased the PAC's value. It actually did the opposite by eliminating buyers. Klownkoff being in no hurry to get a deal done and allowing B12 to jump the line and soak up most of the remaining $$$ and tv slots. // I could go on and on, but just that list is a stunning amount of complete fails. So glad to be leaving this clown conference behind and going to a conference that is actually well-run and cares about football.
  20. Thank you sir. It's been way too long. Great to be back. I've enjoyed your work, as always, while lurking for about the last year or so. Should have jumped back on at that time, but better late than never. The BIG/SEC endgame, B12 as clear #3 and WAC10 death spiral are all too good not to spend a little time speculating and theorizing. With GOT long gone, realignment is the next best thing.
  21. The BIG folks I've talked to are glad he's gone. According to them: 1. Warren isn't 1/100th as sharp as Delaney, and he never got his credibility back after the debacle in 2020. 2. Warren was a figurehead- Gene Smith (OSU) and Ward Manuel (UM) are the real power players- the ones who drove the USC and UCLA addition. 3. Warren started pushing for expansion beyond USC and UCLA after he got so much positive press when they were announced. The BIG schools don't want further expansion until the ACC schools become available- unless it's ND. 4. Because of all of the above, he didn't have any base of support, which is why he left to go back to the NFL.
  22. You're nailing an issue that most people don't think about- opportunity cost of expansion for the BIG/SEC and the networks. The networks want annual rotating games between the big brands. That's what they're paying for, and why the BIG/SEC are moving to 3-6-6. UT, with OU, aggy and arky as their 3 permanent rivals, will get something like Bama, LSU, Auburn one year, and UGA, UF, Vols the next year. At 18 teams, you can still have that rotation with a 3-7-7 schedule, and teams can have 7 home games, which schools want for revenue. 20 is more problematic. The same rotation is possible with a 3-8-8, but schools won't get 7 home games every year with only one OOC game. So the SEC/BIG are going to be extremely selective with who they add to get to 18, and the bar to go to 20 or more will be very high. // That, along with recruiting, is why I keep thinking there's a very real chance the SEC doesn't add FSU and Miami. With the SEC already firmly entrenched in FL, those schools don't bring anywhere near the return to the SEC that they would to the BIG (huge new state for BTN and recruiting). And I don't think SEC fans would be all that excited to add those schools into their schedule. They won't be excited about VA and NC schools either, but the money will make it worth it for the conference and ESPN. For the BIG, adding the FL schools as part of a bigger package of ACC schools to get into VA, NC, GA and FL would be worth changing their rotation to every three years instead of every two. For example, USC would get OSU and PSU year 1, UM and MSU year 2, then FSU and Miami in year 3. For the SEC, they only get the benefits of new markets by adding VA and NC schools, so they could easily stop at 18 with a 3-7-7 schedule and be done. And the SEC has options- if UNC and UVA got BIG, they'll just add VT and NC State, which are more like SEC schools than UNC and UVA anyway. The conventional wisdom in the media is that the SEC and BIG will always want to match each other with the same number of teams, but the conventional wisdom in the media also held that UT wasn't going SEC and USC wasn't going BIG. The SEC and BIG will both do what makes them the most money. Their plans are already diverging when it comes to geographic continuity. The SEC isn't going to add schools that are dilutive just to have the same number of schools as the BIG. The people pushing that are the same people who predicted we'd have four superconferences with 16 teams each. We could easily see a 24 team BIG and an 18 team SEC, as schools like FSU, Miami and GT bring so much more value to the BIG than they do to the SEC.
  23. Outstanding! Like any classic work, it just gets better with time.
  24. With BYU joining the B12, has anyone updated the iconic "Cougar Stuck Outside the Window" image from Shaggy yet ? I'd think one of the BYU fans would have created something ITT with the cougar breaking through the window by now.
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