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USC Traveler

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Posts posted by USC Traveler

  1. 22 minutes ago, Jasper_Jester said:

    These 4 corner schools are not the biggest names in a conference worth low $20M per school and contractually they get $31M in the Big12 because of the current contract. But don't they devalue the conference (on a per school basis) relative to the next contract? or are some of these schools just going to move around contract to contract?

    ESPN and Fox are lowballing the PAC to kill it.

    4C schools' value is that they are the dominos that need to fall to kill the PAC, and bring enough "After Dark" inventory for the B12 to now be the late-night conference.  Once they're in the B12, it also forces UW/UO to the B12 if the BIG says "Thanks bu no thanks".

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  2. 25 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

     



    I agree with the above.....I also don't think that BIG wants Cal or Stanford.

    Agreed.  Leaks happen for a reason.  Who benefits from this leak ?

    If you're ESPN/Fox, there's no better way to get the other 4C school to jump than to scare the shit out of them about the PNW and Bay area schools going BIG.  By leaking it to Wetzel, Thamel, etc, it amps up what McMurphy and Dodds have been saying for a year, because it's now coming from new sources.  

    I have always thought this was disinformation to destabilize the PAC, and still do.

    When the BIG has actually added teams over the last 20 years, they have done so in silence.  No leaks with NU, RU, MD, USC or UCLA until the deals were done.

    Now we're getting leaks on a small exploratory group early stage meeting ?  I don't buy it.

    Also, if you add four West Coast schools, that means USC vs OSU, UM and PSU happen less often, unless they only add UW/UO and go to 10 games.

    Once the 4C schools have gone B12, we'll see the report that the BIG decided they don't want to add anyone else.  That forces UW and UO to the B12.  ESPN and Fox would get them at $31m each, the B12 becomes even stronger, and has enough late-night inventory for both ESPN and FS1.

    If I'm wrong, I'll take the L, but I don't think I'm wrong.

     

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  3. 15 hours ago, Not a Sock said:

    No a bunch of rando dumbassess on the Internet think the have a case, FSU’s lawyers know very clearly they don’t have a case.

    The Chair of the Board of Trustees at FSU said in an interview with Warchant that was linked somewhere itt "The GOR is the least of our worries."

    He might be a dumbass, but he's far from a rando on the internet.

  4. 28 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

    So what’s Florida State’s next move after they break out of the ACC? Somebody is pulling their strings and it sure as shit ain’t ESPN/SEC. 

    FSU has to be #2 on the BIG's list behind ND.  Same with Fox- top BIG teams vs FSU, Miami, and (maybe Clemson).  BTN in FL at in-market rates.

    CBS and NBC would love it also, as it would mean more top tier games every week for the BIG.

    With Iger talking about bringing in a strategic partner for ESPN (not a good sign), Fox/BIG may feel like now is the time to strike, while ESPN is weak.

    And if the strong football brands leave the ACC, that will force ND to the BIG.  Lots of motivation for BIG and Fox.

     

    //

     

    I guess it's possible that the FSU admin all took a massive batch of mind-altering drugs simultaneously and they actually don't have a deal set up already.  But the only way I could see that happening is if Klownkoff was the President of FSU.😂

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  5. 2 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

    I just don’t get how the think they can break the GOR without massive compensation.  

    Their lawyers apparently think they have a fraud case against the ACC due to Swofford and the conference knowingly misleading them with false statements and revenue projections.

    If they really announce a 2024 departure from the ACC in the next two weeks, we're going into realignment overdrive.

    2024 already has USC/UCLA and UT/OU on the move.  IF FSU and a bunch of other ACC schools go BIG/SEC also, combined with the first year of the 12 team playoff and the WAC10 potentially disintegrating, CFB is going to look like an entirely different world.

    Wild times.

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  6. 1 hour ago, Pasken said:

    Streaming is annoying bc there aren't a lot of arrangements like this. Streaming from Apple is insanely easy and simple. No bullshit. It's hard for me to understand how so many ppl are insistent on freaking cable in 2023 but maybe I'm the crazy one.

    I dropped cable after the cfb season ended.  Still have spectrum for broadband (no other good choices locally for high speed).

    Wife and I are going to Croatia for five weeks, so I'm canceling the account entirely.  Did the same thing the last few years.

    When we get back, I start over as a new customer b/c it's been more than a month.  Get broadband and cable bundle at an intro price.

     I like having cable during CFB season so when SC is on the road or not playing, I can set up shop and have four games going at once, flipping back and forth between them with no lag, and able to go back and see what I missed on the other games.

    Never watch a commercial, and on those crazy cfb days when there are a bunch of great games and huge upsets, it's pretty epic to watch everything unfold across the country in different conferences, especially as it gets deeper into the season and playoff spots are on the line.

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  7. 21 minutes ago, gatormarc said:

    1/3 of the cost is still not cheap. Plus they still need to pay the full exit fee, correct?

    And they'd also be gaining less because their NBC+ACC deal combined is a smaller gap compared to what they would get by jumping.

     

    8 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

    Yes. They have to pay full exit to conference and GOR to move their other sports that aren’t football. 

    The exit fee is three times the annual revenue received, so, like the GOR buyout, ND's exit fee will be small because it's only their non-football rights that are involved.  It's a completely different world than what FSU and Clemson are looking at.

    ND would make at least $70m/year in the BIG, but we know there are escalators in the BIG deal specifically for ND, so that base number would be higher.

    The payout also goes up each year.  Compared to the their current deal, they'd be in the black by year 3 even with the exit fee and buying out the GOR.

    The question is how much is NBC willing to pay them for an ACC-heavy home schedule each year ?

    The delta between NBC's offer vs what they can make in the BIG (and still have their home games exclusively on NBC as part of the deal to join) is what will determine things.  

    If FSU does actually announce they're leaving in the next two weeks, and that causes a chain reaction, that would shift things heavily in favor of ND to the BIG.

     

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  8. 15 hours ago, Sandman said:

    Does ND have some sort of out that I've missed (Which is entirely possible)? I thought they were locked in the ACC for years?

    ND can resign from the ACC, then buy their way out of the ACC GOR very cheaply b/c they are non-football members, and the value of their non-football rights doesn't amount to much. 

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  9. 2 hours ago, Jabberwocky said:

    The AQ for the 12 team playoff is indeed most likely going away in 2026. That is assumed to be the case by most. I do not understand why people in here think it won't.

    The B1G and SEC will pretty much be writing the new rules for it when the current agreement expires after 2025. That is a big reason why you see all this realignment happening, along with NIL.

    I think it will be top 3 con champs and highest-ranked G5 (or whatever it's called by then) to avoid legal issues, plus 8 at large.

  10. 4 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

     

    SIAP, there are more receipts in the replies

    We all know how long the WAC10 has been saying this deal is going to happen and how full of shit Clownzano, Altimore, etc are, but seeing everything listed in that thread takes it to another level entirely.  There's such a constant stream of PAC propaganda that I had forgotten Clownzano was predicting a media deal with ESPN and Fox getting done by media day- media day 2022, that is.  🤣

     

    Thanks for posting.  That might be the greatest thread I've ever read on twitter.  Absolutely beautiful roasting of the WAC propagandists.

  11. 3 hours ago, Sandbagging Steve said:

    FSU and six other members of the ACC want out. At least 11 of the 15 members would find a home making more money in a better situation.

    UNC really as interested in leaving as they're leading on to the other members?

    Why can't the conference dissolve? 

    1. Notre Dame (B1G/SEC)

    2. FSU (B1G/SEC)

    3. North Carolina (B1G/SEC)

    4. UVA (B1G/SEC)

    5. Miami (B1G/Big 12)

    6. Clemson (B1G/SEC/Big 12)

    7. Virginia Tech (Big 12/SEC)

    8. NC State (Big 12/SEC)

    9. Georgia Tech (Big 12/B1G)

    10. Louisville (Big 12)

    11. Pitt (Big 12)

    On the fence:

    12. Duke (who knows)

    13. Syracuse (Big 12)

    Leftovers: Wake Forest, Boston College

     

    Agree on this- there are a lot of scenarios where most of the schools end up in a better position.

    Good to see you posting SS.  Hope you're enjoying your walkabout.

    We're all just killing time in this thread waiting for you to post some epic national parks pics.

     

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  12. 10 hours ago, gatormarc said:

    But I was assured by B1G fans that they would never have expanded if they hadn't been "forced to" by the SEC.

    Pathetic pussies.  Why would they be apologetic about it ?

    The answer should have been "Yeah- Delaney was a baller who saw where everything was going and wanted a coast to coast conference."

     

    In truth, when the BIG added RU and MD, I thought going coast to coast was the eventual plan.  Just wasn't sure on the timeframe and whether Warren had the stones to do it.  Glad it became reality.  Can't wait to play in the BIG- it's going to be a blast, with some epic games.

  13. 2 hours ago, Gidnik said:

    May be a done deal. He doesn’t really do rumors. 
     

     

    Yeah- he has a low-key, just the facts style of reporting, which is a nice change from the hucksters like Swaim and the propagandists like Wilner and Clownzano.  Jason has made it clear in their realignment thread (which is very good btw) that UA is going B12 and that Robbins' public statements are posturing for political purposes, just like CU's were.

    //

    Speaking of public posturing, I was surprised how many months it took for the tone to change, but once the CU/UA Presidents and ADs went from "We're staying in the PAC" to "We'd like to stay in the PAC, but we need to do what's best for CU/UA" you knew the B12 move was happening.

    Once UA goes, it feels like Utah will have to make the move unless they are completely clueless.  They're in a precarious position.

    ASU is a harder read, because their Pres (Crow) is completely clueless.  He was one of Grifter Larry's biggest supporters, and probably loves Klownkoff too.

     

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  14. 5 hours ago, Frieda’s Boss said:

    I’m glad you mentioned this, because I was going to say of course this guy makes sense, his ‘what I’m hearing’ is probably what he read here from you…

    Your animosity toward Oregon is clear, but how do you feel about adding UW and Stanford?  Now you really capture the west coast, academics/research claims of the Big are actually met, two tech hubs with a lot of Big alums, etc.?  Inevitably the Big will eventually want “Big 10 After Dark” and without more west coast representation, are you going to be happy with all USC home games being 7:30pm kickoffs?

     

    Stanford was originally supposed to be the second school that went to the BIG with USC, but Fox wanted to lock up the LA market (and lock the PAC out of LA completely) so then UCLA became the partner.  Outside of ND, Stanford is the school I'd bet the most money on getting into the BIG.

    ND will want Stanford as their partner to join, which would allow the BIG Presidents to add them without losing revenue in the process. BIG would be thrilled with that scenario for all the reasons you listed above.  USC people are looking forward to it happening, as they're actually the school we have the longest history with, and fans love going to games in Palo Alto (myself included).  The stadium is usually 50% SC fans, so it's like an extra home game.  They'd be a huge help with travel, as it would guarantee USC one home game every year in CA.  Having ND (as a conference game) and Stanford in the BIG is ideal for SC.

    Most USC people I know are good with the idea of UW in the BIG.  Their fans are mostly cool, and they fit the BIG profile in terms of market, research and academics in a way that Eugene Community College and their human trashcan fans don't.  I think UW is going to have a tough time because of geography, though.  I've said in this thread before that if UW were in VA, they'd be a slamdunk for the BIG, as the BIG is going to prioritize ND and the ACC schools.  Only after they know who they're getting from the ACC will they turn back out West to fill in the gaps imo.  

    Now that ASU is AAU, I think they're more appealing to the BIG- slightly bigger market, more BIG alums, faster-growing, better recruiting, easier travel for BIG schools, and ASU actually helps the LA schools with travel.  Also an attractive travel destination for BIG admin and fans in late fall and winter.  I don't think it's a coincidence that they got AAU along with ND and Miami.  Depending on how the BIG does with their ACC targets, there may be none or only one spot left, so UW could fall victim to unfavorable geography.  For USC folks, beyond helping with travel for the team, if you've ever been to ASU when you were single, it's a trip you want to repeat, so most people I know like the idea of ASU coming in eventually.  ASU is probably preferred over UW by most, but people would be fine if UW was added.

    As for the late night games, I think you're looking at it the wrong way.  The chances of "BIG after dark" are actually much greater if there are a bunch of West Coast schools than there are with just the LA schools.  The BIG schools don't want to play in those timeslots, and the BIG didn't add USC to air our games when 3/4 of the country is no longer watching.  One more reason USC people don't want a lot of West Coast schools added.

  15. 9 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

    Big 12 expansion: Conference prefers to add one more school after Colorado with Arizona seen as favorite

    Not really much new, outside confirmation that FOX/ESPN is fronting P5 expansion and Texas/OU buyouts were invested in boosting the new 4 additions until the media contract extension officially starts in 2025.

    So if @USC Traveler's Pedo State info is on the mark and the Big Ten went to 20 with UVA/UNC/FSU/Miami, what would happen next?    With Sankey pretty much saying all he cares about is brands, is there anything left the SEC even gives a shit about?

    VT and NC State would actually fit in well culturally to the SEC.  Both have die-hard fans and Lane stadium is a great environment.  

    Money for SECNet and a direct recruiting presence for SEC schools in those states would also be beneficial.

    And neither program would actually threaten the top dogs in the SEC.  They would be like South Carolina, but with more value and better recruiting grounds.

  16. 24 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

    This is about the most legit sounding expansion stuff I've heard in a while.  One third of the US lives in the I95 corridor, far more than the Pacific Northwest, and UVA/UNC reside right in the area the Big Ten doesn't control.

    I had the same thought as soon as I read it.  It's the way you'd actually be looking at this if you were the BIG, given their long-term demographics issues.

    It also lines up with pretty much everything I've been predicting about future BIG expansion, so there's no cognitive dissonance.  😀

  17. BIG expansion info from a poster on the PSU 247 board who seems to be connected and is well-respected by their board:

    Quote

     

    I want to share a few things regarding expansion. 

    1. Neither the Presidents or AD's are looking for any more expansion for the next few years. Folks should expect 4-6 years of the new scheduling format before any changes are made. The new Commish is really focused on this and fully integrating USC/UCLA into the conference. 

    2. My expectation is the next wave of expansion will likely hit around 2029/2030. I don't expect any more west coast expansion from the Big Ten. Warren could not find any media partners willing to pay enough to make it work and nobody thinks that changes any time soon. USC/UCLA does not want any more PAC teams. Travelling to Oregon and Washington is pretty much the same for them as travelling to Mid-west so the theory that they want more Pacific Coast programs to lower travel cost is bunk. The next round of expansion will focus on ND and ACC teams down the Atlantic Coast. 

    3. My info comes from PSU so it may be skewed toward their preferences but everything I hear suggests UVA and UNC would be the first targets. Younger, growing metro areas down the I-95 corridor with lots of B1G alumn transplants living and moving in that direction. FSU is another strong possibility. In the past, I was told that the B1G was not at all interested in Miami but very recently was told that their admission to the AAU is a game changer. I was told that VA Tech and GA Tech were long-shot possibilities to round out expansion. From what I understand, Clemson is not on the radar unless a media partner really, really pushes it. My prediction would be that as we get closer to 2030 the next round of expansion will be UVA, UNC, FSU & Miami + Notre Dame. 

    4. That gets us back to Notre Dame. The expectation of AD's and Presidents is that ND will finalize a deal wiht NBC that takes them out to roughly the same time as the B1G media deal. At that point, if they are not willing to jump into conference completely, the thought is that B1G will move forward with poaching the ACC and that ND at that point will set up a scheduling agreement with Big Ten. The example of what that would look like was given to me was: 8 games, 4 home, 4 away and would be against big brands that the networks want. Something like PSU, OSU, UM, MSU, Wiscy, NW, Neb, USC. Apparently one of the big snags with NBC negotiations has been ND's terrible schedule when it comes to ratings. NBC wants more games against Big Ten teams which would be much better for ratings than just a bunch of scrub ACC teams and the service academies. (GO NAVY!)

    5. Bonus PSU content: this is not completely about expansion but relevant to the topic: PSU folks have been very pleasantly surprised by how enthusiastic NBC (also CBS to a lesser extent) is about Penn State and even the new Commish has taken notice as he has been smoothing over the TV schedule stuff. NBC wants as many PSU games as possible and their execs have told the Commish that they feel Penn State is the key to big ratings in the large metro areas of the East Coast. The reason I bring it up in this thread is that it has been suggested to me that the next round of expansion will be focused on finding good pairings with PSU down the I-95 corridor. Essentially the status quo is now becoming USC, OSU, UM and PSU as the 4 major national brands with USC anchoring the west coast, OSU and UM the midwest and PSU anchoring the East Coast, with those 4 schools kind of elevating the TV ratings when they match up with the "lesser" programs in their regions. That dynamic will probably shape the next round of expansion quite a bit.

     

     

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  18. 2 hours ago, Magus Ossis said:

    Assuming Oregon joins the B12, they will be subject to a significant financial hit if and when they desire to break their membership agreement to leave for the B1G. Because their move would not significantly increase the per-team value of either TV contract, no network is likely going to be motivated to ‘underwrite’ much of the cost/penalty. A cagey league, warned by this round of shuffling, could and likely would work to complete future deals and accompanying GORs early enough that the penalty is magnified. An Oregon motivated to escape the Pac would have little leverage for a carve-out when signing up. Even should the B1G decide at some post-B12-join date that they do want Oregon enough to offer, plucking them would be very unlike how easily they acquired Nebraska. A landscape change even more fundamental than this one might be required to allow future defections from now-stabilized conferences as the escalation of conference contracts continues. ACC may already be locked up too tightly for early departures much before GOR expiration, and even MWC’s terms at present may prove strong enough to wound Pac deeply based on awkward timing.

    Really good points across the board here.  

    The only thing I would disagree with is that if I was the B12, I'd give schools a reasonable out clause to go to the BIG/SEC.

    That way you can easily consolidate the "best of the rest", most of whom will never get into the BIG/SEC anyway.

    It would allow the B12 to strike a death blow on the PAC and, eventually, the ACC, as it would ensure that it's the place to land for schools like UL and Pitt.

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  19. 4 hours ago, bullet said:

    They had a whole presentation on the possibility of leaving for the Big 12 covered on the Shaggy board.  Their president Barron, formerly a UT prof,  had no interest and proceeded to lock them in for 20 years to the ACC.  One of the 247/365 blogger types was at the meeting and did a report on it.  Clemson discussed it at several board meetings.  Doesn't mean there will be any action.

    You should listen to the first 15 minutes of that FSU podcast that I posted the link for a page or two back.  Feels very different this time around.

  20. 4 hours ago, bullet said:

    I've seen enough reliable people say it that I think UW and Oregon, as part of the Big 10 (not as part of the Pac 10) bring enough to justify addition.  They just don't bring up the average any noticeable amount.  So it would be a strategic addition to dominate the west coast and get more playoff spots.  They aren't going to bring bunches more money to anyone.  Cal and Stanford were definitely dilutive.

    Thamel, Feldman, Olson, etc  have all reported multiple times that the PNW schools would be dilutive.  And unless they change the playoff to 12 at-large berths (possible), the math of the 12 team/ 6 champ format means the BIG and SEC will get 3 in most years, but not more.  That means if UO or UW make the playoff, they are taking a spot away from an existing BIG team.  They're not adding playoff spots- they're taking them away.

    BIG will already dominate the West Coast media attention through USC, UCLA and existing BIG schools playing out West on a regular basis.

    The PNW schools don't help the LA schools with travel and make all existing BIG members travel out West twice as often, but with no boost in recruiting or alum engagement.  All in all- less money for BIG schools, travel to the PNW, less games on linear for mid-lower tier BIG teams, more playoff competition for BIG teams.

    Even if all of that wasn't the case, why would the BIG add PNW schools now and take up valuable slots before seeing what happens in the ACC ?  

    They won't.  2036 isn't far away in realignment terms, and there is real smoke around FSU doing something as early two weeks from now.

    //

    You might have missed my earlier post to you about a bet for a burger and a beer at a future UT-USC game that Stanford will be in the BIG before UO.

    I'll go you one better- I'll bet you that ND, Stanford and some ACC schools all get into the BIG before UO.  

    I think I'll win because I doubt UO is ever getting into the BIG.

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  21. 4 hours ago, Magus Ossis said:

    I’m at peace with USC having its Ceterum autem censeo Oregonem esse delendam.

    Iswydt- outstanding work!  

    I loved the whole post obviously.  Hope to see you guys in the playoffs soon.  Would be an epic rematch.

    That Rose Bowl is still the most-watched CFB game in history.

  22. FSU podcast- first 10 minutes is very good, with the 247 guy who dropped the nugget about them leaving the ACC.  

    He's definitely not a kook or a fraud like the realignment hucksters.  Well worth a listen.

    On The Bench: An FSU football podcast network- Is FSU’s time in the ACC nearing an end? 


    On The Bench begins with 10 minutes of Chris Nee diving into his report on Noles247 about Florida State's exploration of leaving the ACC. He details the reasoning of the timing of his report, why he believe things are escalating when it comes to FSU/realignment, and the possible risks and factors involved if FSU were to indeed make a jump. 

    Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/on-the-bench-an-fsu-football-podcast-network/id1215365810?i=1000622649897

     

  23. Massive shift in tone on the UW, UO and Utah boards.

    They all were overwhelmingly “go to BIG or stay in the PAC” until yesterday.

    Now the dam has broken and strong sentiment on all 3 is “Go B12.”

    There are some UW  and UO holdouts wanting only BIG or stay in PAC, and some delusional Zeros fans talking about going independent, but the ground has shifted massively.

    On Utah 247, the shift has been multiple orders of magnitude.  They went from despising everything about B12 to desperately wanting the B12, realizing they could get completely hosed if they don’t make a move quickly.  Incredible to see that kind of shift that quickly.

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