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hornhorn

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Posts posted by hornhorn

  1. 8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

    I could be reading it wrong, but Apple's 15% phone tariffs got pushed back to December, but the 30% tariffs for the computers and accessories are kicking in tomorrow.  Apple is not going to eat 30%, and I doubt FoxConn, etc. are willing to eat that either.  Well, I suppose the workers who die from exhaustion could be ground up into Soylent Green, and that would help offset both disposal and food costs, but still, 30% is quite a bit.

    They may eat some of that, but prices are going to go up for consumers, even if it's only 10% or 20%.

    I think I read somewhere about Apple getting an exemption but if they don't then yes they will be paying 15% on Sep 1st(which Apple will likely absorb according to many analysts), 30% on Oct 1st which they will pass on to the consumers and then another round in Dec. 

    It seems Apple is more at risk on Oct 1st deadline than tomorrow. 

     

    Spoiler

    SEPT. 1 TARIFFS

    The U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency will begin collecting tariffs for Chinese goods at 12:01 a.m. EDT (0401 GMT) on Sunday. Guidance issued on Friday indicated that there will not be a grace period for cargoes that have left China before that time, unlike that granted for goods in transit when the United States imposed a tariff increase in May.

    The Sept. 1 list covers about $125 billion worth of mostly consumer products, based on a Reuters analysis of 2018 U.S. Census Bureau data. The target list includes flat panel television sets, flash memory devices, power tools, cotton sweaters, bed linens, multifunction printers and many types of footwear.

    The largest category of targeted products covers smart watches, smart speakers, Bluetooth headphones and other internet-connected devices that were spared from a prior round of tariffs, with Chinese imports estimated at $17.9 billion annually by the Consumer Technology Association.

    OCT. 1 TARIFF INCREASE

    The Trump administration is accepting public comments through Sept. 20 on a proposed Oct. 1 tariff rate increase to 30% from the 25% duty already in place on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports.

    These products include $50 billion worth of largely non-consumer goods, including machinery, electronic components including semiconductors and printed circuit boards, and chemicals. But a later $200 billion list of goods included many consumer goods and building products, including furniture, vacuum cleaners, lighting fixtures, plumbing fixtures, handbags, luggage and vinyl flooring.

     

    DEC. 15 TARIFFS

    The second part of the 15% tariffs on Chinese goods not previously hit by U.S. duties is scheduled to go into effect on Dec. 15. This list represents the heart of the consumer technology sector, including $43 billion worth of cell phones imported from China in 2018, $37 billion worth of laptop and tablet computers and $12 billion worth of toys.

    Trump delayed tariffs on these products, saying he wanted to avoid hurting Christmas season sales for Apple Inc (AAPL.O) and other companies and retailers.

    The list covers about $156 billion worth of total 2018 imports from China, based on U.S. Census Bureau data, and includes a wide range of consumer goods, including plastic tableware, socks, light-emitting diode lamps, Christmas decorations and clothing.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-tariffs-factbox/factbox-next-rounds-of-trumps-tariffs-on-chinese-goods-to-hit-consumers-idUSKCN1VL0EX

  2. 33 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

    Tariffs are starting to kick in this weekend though.  He’s hoping that the companies are going to eat the costs.  That’s an action that’s going to negatively affect the economy.  

    There could be so many results of these tariffs:

    • American companies can make Chinese suppliers eat most of the cost(which some American companies are doing).
    • Some companies like Apple are already getting exceptions so no to minimal impact.
    • China devalues their currency further which seems to be the likely weapon of choice for China. But it doesn't impact the American consumer which forms 2/3rds of American economy. It impacts American companies that have sales in China but its negligible depending on how much they devalue. 

    It seems that the negative impact is overblown. The market probably is aware of it which is why it keeps hovering around all time highs.

  3. 2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

    What, 30% on computers and accessories (video cards, etc.) on September 1st, 15% on iPhones in December?

    Stockmarket will be fun next week.  

    Right, that's when NVDA which was $167 today will be in $140s. Gotta take some risk at some point to make $$$

  4. 1 minute ago, Trey3216 said:

    That clip pisses me off.   I bought about 2000 shares of NVDA at 27 and sold them at 65, only to see them run damn near 5x where I sold them.   Uggh 

    Just wait for the tariff bad news circle to hit again, the stock will be around $140s, buy LEAPS spread, profit!

    • Like 1
  5. 4 minutes ago, retread said:

    So many of these conflicts seem to have terrible communication b/w the cops and the other parties. I'll bet the owner of the McDonald's welcomes having police officers in there regularly. He needs to tell his employess that, and the cops need to not act like jackasses.

    But he shouldn't be behind the counter. He isn't serv safe certified and I wouldn't want him around where food is being prepared, given the kind of people he has to deal with. 

    • Like 1
  6. On 8/23/2019 at 6:50 PM, hornhorn said:

    Its the narrative that's the problem. 5% increase on that amount is nothing given our strong consumer and GDP. The bad narrative which leads to CEOs being uncertain about CAPEX in the future including hiring is what makes this a bearish event. 

     

    So if twitter is quiet and Trump has a good weekend at the G7, Monday should be alright.

    Don't wanna say called it, but uh...called it. 

    • Like 1
    • Fuck You 1
  7. 9 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

    A 5% increase in tariffs on 550 billion in goods wont be helping things.

    Its the narrative that's the problem. 5% increase on that amount is nothing given our strong consumer and GDP. The bad narrative which leads to CEOs being uncertain about CAPEX in the future including hiring is what makes this a bearish event. 

     

    So if twitter is quiet and Trump has a good weekend at the G7, Monday should be alright.

  8. 30 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

    I’m confused about several things here and am trying to weigh whether or not to question OP now, or let him cool off. I’ve never had such restraint. 

    Post puberty does weird things Beeper. 

  9. 33 minutes ago, Captainant said:

    Fed's data shows that US manufacturing in recession due to the trade war. Makes me curious if this is the first crack that starts to form, especially since they're already wanting to lower interest rates in response 

    Its contradicted by consumers data being strong. So even if they wanted to get multiple rate cuts, its less likely to happen as long as the consumer(and job/unemployment) data keeps posting strong numbers. 

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