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Muny_Tex

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Posts posted by Muny_Tex

  1. On 4/14/2024 at 2:00 PM, Neonmoon said:

    Assuming people that bought in CenTex in past 18-24 months are underwater-ish is a HUGE assumption. The median sales prices for ALL property types is down only -3% year over year. Single Family Homes are up +0.3%. Townhomes are up +15.2%, and Condos are dragging shit down at -11.2%

    https://www.redfin.com/city/30818/TX/Austin/housing-market

     

     

    Sorry for late reply, but couple of things I believe the macro data is overlooking:

    1.) The degree/extent to which buy-downs + other seller-paid concessions are propping-up / distorting "sale prices"; especially for SFH's.  

    2.) Significant variance in transactions across different price-points.  If you double-clicked on homes under $500k vs. those above $1M I would imagine it's far from an equivalent story; particularly w.r.t price cuts, days on market, etc.  YoY comparisons are also inherently weird because 2023 was somewhat unique in terms of both super low listings and unusually low sales while people reacted to the new interest rate reality.

    3.) Ultra-high end seems to be doing particularly bad.  Extreme example, but Chris Beard's Tarrytown den of iniquities has been on the market for over a year now and still ain't moving.  He's now baked in at least a $1.1M loss (not including sales commissions) from when he bought at the top of the top in 2021...so likely somewhere near a 25-30% bath when all is said and done.  It appears Sark also ate close to a $2M loss on his Rollingwood place he finally just offloaded.

    By the same token, plenty of 'normal' people who bought in the bidding-war insanity of 2021 would also be selling at significant losses right now if they were faced with an equivalent "need" to sell.  Many are able to justify/sustain their situations thanks to their super-low rates, but that doesn't mean there isn't enormous price vulnerability across Austin if a real big-boy recession ever shows up (which may then impact appraisals for the 2023 buyers seeking to re-fi).  The cachet + hyper demand for Austin just is not the same as it was during peak Covid...and that story is already reflected within significant rent dcreases even in the premium parts of Central/West.  And no, I don't think this is a nationwide trend...the bandwagon just seems to have shifted from AUS/DEN/PHX/BOI etc over to other regions/markets (your neck of the woods in WNC is a prime beneficiary of that).

    4.) Austin-proper and CenTex are different animals, particularly with regard to new-builds.  I think there are many exurb-style developments that are going to find themselves slashing prices massively (or eating the losses via in-house lending) if there is not significant rate improvement this year.  I don't doubt that demographic growth will continue in Texas indefinitely, I'm just not sure how many of the 'Texans of tomorrow' will be interested + capable of purchasing $400k tract home bullshit in the outskirts of New Braunfels.

    All that stuff in aggregate is why I started to wonder about if the appraisals are gonna be sufficient to deliver re-fi rate relief for a lot of people who bought maybe a year or so ago.  They were too late to get the attractive rates, but also too early to get much significant price improvement.  However, Wulaw's insight (which was very helpful, btw) would indicate they're probably okay...at least on the supposition that lenders maintain their willingness to re-fi conventionals at 90-95%+ LTV in event of a recession.

     

     

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  2. @Wulaw (et al), any risk of these forward-seeking Refi's potentially getting derailed by short appraisals?  I don't know anything about HOU market, but I would imagine there's quite a few people in CenTex that bought in past 18-24 months who are underwater-ish right now (and seemingly getting worse, depending on their 'hood + price point).

    That said, true market value not always reflected in appraisals, espec when it it seems (anecdotally) like the trend overall has been to err valuations in favor of buyer/borrower; at least since prices starting exploding in Summer of '21.

    On related note, as someone in the "higher for longer" camp, I tend to think the only thing that would really force the issue w.r.t significant rate cuts would be an undeniable recession with corresponding surge in unemployment.  Under that scenario, I could see prices dropping quicker + further as 2nd homes, rental investors, + Airbnb'ers (of which there are many in TX) find themselves in liquidation mode.  I also would imagine a lot of hopeful refinancers would be DQ'd if they no longer have the jobs/income stability to pass underwriting...which may compel those same people to sell the houses that they can no longer afford.

     

    • Hook 'Em 1
  3. Blake,

    I've been an observer of the Longhorn internets since approx 2001; and was very a active reader of Shaggy from Day 1.  You are one of my favorite contributors during that entire time frame.  Even back when you were a "different person", I still always looked forward to seeing your hoops takes and thought it was really bizarre how many people (such as the "Hi" crowd) felt compelled to have real-life personal beef with you.

    Fast forward to now and very little seems to have changed; so my advice is this:  Please permanently leave this website and find a different/healthier outlet for expressing your interest in sports and engaging with other fans.  Many of the largest influencers here do not have your best interests at heart (and that's putting it gently), and they never will.

    I fully believe that anyone who devotes any substantial amount of attention/energy to an internet message board (and by the same token, mainstream social media) is fundamentally a loser.  Time and resources are finite, and youth/vigor/opportunity costs are tremendously precious.  The fact that there are many people here with tens of thousands of posts (translate those into conscious hours!) dropped into little more than an abyss of uselessness (95% of the time) or a vortex of hatred, division, and personal attacks (at worst) speaks immense volumes about their character as adults, parents, spouses, etc etc. 

    There is a reason so many posters fit similar archetypes of ultra-high incomes and professional classes...they are the same people (especially the lawyers) who everyone else on the globe typically despises for the way they live their lives and treat others.  It is only natural that they translate their self-loathing into attempts to cope/compensate through sanctimony, condescension, frequently outright abuse towards others while safely protected behind their screens.

    I aim to browse the board approx ~30 mins a week now to aggregate Astros news and pertinent insights relating to markets/finances.  Fortunately that's because I (finally) have other important, meaningful, real-world human priority shit to do which was never that case when I spent hours and hours a day here (and not coincidentally, was objectively a loser during those same life stages).

    I don't know your whole story, but I perceive an enormous amount of victimhood from you during this most recent episode without appropriate regard for the greater context: This place will never be uplifting for you, it will never be a source of joy/pride/confidence/health whatever.  It is a fundamentally ugly place populated overwhelmingly by fundamentally ugly people. 

    There are certainly useful things you can "learn" here (like the 'Help' board) just as you would browsing google/reddit for specific topics of interest; but actually engaging anyone here and expecting anything different than the exact-same toxic pattern over the past 10+ years for you is horribly misguided.  In the parlance of Tommy Boy, you are the woman in white gloves horribly upset by the mess made by ketchup popsicles that you insist on ordering over and over again.

    Put this hellscape away.  Take control of your own life and your own recovery.  Bob, imaamac, motown, etc etc should not and cannot be the gatekeepers to your health, happiness, and well-being.  May God bless you, and I hope to see you reach your full potential somewhere that is worthwhile.

    • Hook 'Em 4
    • Fuck You 8
  4. That 9th inning felt like a surreal teleport into the wicked moments of Weiss, Leyritz, Betts/Benintendi, or one of those 2020 Rays LCS games where it seemed scientifically impossible for things to fall in Astros favor.

    Soto's RBI was ballsy (that whole AB was a masterclass), but their 3B's play down the line on Altuve was equally impressive.  One of the best 'game-saving' defensive moments I can recall in a regular season Astros game, right up there with Pena's division-winning plays in AZ and the old Springer grand-slam robbery in Arlington.

    Overall despite the shitpile, Hunter's performance on Saturday was the most encouraging thing all weekend IMO.  That was a legit stopper-like effort and he seemed confident throwing/locating everything.  He is now the key to the rotation with Framber regressing, JV TBD, and Urquidy/Garcia/LMJ more uncertain.

    The first base situation is really concerning.  Extremely.

     

     

     

     

     

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  5. I thought it was odd that Hader pitched the 9th down 2-runs; espec since there's no off-day until Thursday.  Unless the objective was just to make Abreu and Pressly feel worse about themselves.

    Also hate Alvarez in the 2-hole (I'd rather him hit cleanup), analytics be damned.

  6. 13 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

    John Kelso was seemingly the only Austinite who was powerful enough to take her on, and she still didn't bite.  A very weird lady.  She ruined a lot of lives in that neighborhood.

    Can you (or anyone else familiar) elaborate on this some more?  I grew up nearby and was about 12 years old when it closed down, which was one of my first conscious WTF moments in life.  I remember my Dad telling me about the evil veggie lady, but my childhood brain could not make sense of why someone would purposefully wreck something that everyone else enjoyed so much. 

    We used to have breakfast there most weekends, I remember there was an cool old lady who was one of the servers (I think Sally maybe was her name?).  Also a very underrated CFS in addition to the burgers and other staple items.

  7. 5 hours ago, Pokoloco said:

    We're running at a $1300/month deficit right now after everything.  Our monthly CC payments have ballooned to $2916.50/mo, mortgage is $1521.86/mo.

    We have 3 kids,  22 year old is the youngest and in school.

     

    That's really tough man, and I'm not sure the math/feasibility is on your side even with a max 401k loan.  I thought for a minute that a home sale + downgrade may be best in the long-run, but gonna be damn difficult (if not impossible) to replicate a viable long-term living situation at fixed cost of ~$1500/mo without a brutal quality of life disruption, even in Oklahoma.

    I hate to say it, but all signs point to default unless your wife is willing to ante up immensely on the income side of the equation.  That said, a wife-centered ultimatum (and forced employment arrangement) could lead to even more acute issues that may completely destroy you financially if an acrimonious divorce materializes as a result.  Although it is generally bullshit (and very selfish) that she's not willing to work more to dig out of this disaster, she's also the wife you chose (and ultimately have kept)...so please tread lightly (and understand the risks) if you suddenly decide to lay down the law with her.

    The "good" news is in a default scenario you will not be lying to any of your creditors, the fact of the matter is a family crisis put you far beyond the point of traditional repayment, and they will now face some of the consequences for lending to you beyond your means (assuming you did not misrepresent your household income).  You're not trying to have cake and eat it too...you already drive old/cheaper cars and it's not as if you are trying to keep a vacation home or boating hobby in motion while this inferno burns. 

    It's been mentioned a couple of times now, but unsecured debt is really not that catastrophic (at least based on how I understand the rules/laws).  It will certainly suck in several ways, but even if you were in a forced bankruptcy situation (which you're absolutely not) your main assets (house + 401k) are gonna be protected anyway.  

    Best wishes out there and don't allow this to wreck your personal esteem.  Everyone makes mistakes, and at the root, all you seemingly were trying to do was be a loving parent; even if it went beyond your own rational good sense.

    • Hook 'Em 3
  8. Also: I alluded to HELOCs but to do not endorse/recommend whatsoever.  The 401k loan is the ONLY form of "new debt" that I would remotely support, and that's probably only if you decide to go down the road of using that $$$ in concert with some strategic defaults + chargeoffs (since you can always pull that 401k lever regardless of your credit score situation.)

  9. First off, you seem like a good person and I'm sorry for everything that happened.

    There is some useful directional advice above, but I think you may be missing an element of number-crunching before determining your final COAs.

    Now that things are back to "normal" (based on the at short-term closure of your son's situations), what is your actual current monthly cash-flow surplus after accounting for all overhead bills, gas/insurance, food, discretionary purchases, and of course, existing debt service costs

    You mentioned familiarity with Dave Ramsey, which would indicate you're pretty well-versed in the mechanics of actual/no-shit/budgeting and hopefully keep pretty close track of inflows/outflows on a monthly basis.  If not, the FIRST THING I would do is start fresh on February 1 and track, log, audit every single penny that you and your wife spend (no matter how small) and organize those expenses into spreadsheet format in relation to your take-home-pay (based on current taxes + 401k contributions).  Assuming you both have pretty steady income, you can then amortize (based on February's results) exactly how much "progress" is feasibly possible on an annual basis based on status quo expenditures.

    Based on your apparent frugality, there may not be much low-hanging fruit for cutting back spending, but if you're already running something like a $3K surplus per month then it's really not that much of a crisis and you can confidently roll into restructuring/reservicing based on variety of calculations cost/benefit comparisons.

    Conversely, if you're only able to "save" like a grand per month (or less) then I think you need to take a more holistic look at your financial situation (and yes, housing situation) if your wife is truly incapable/unwilling to contribute additional income.  I don't know how old your other kids are, but I kind of struggle with your wife's expectation of having a fully paid-off "family size" house if the long-term use case is only for her to live there on her own-ish once you are dead.  But we can drill down on that further once we obtain some more data regarding your go-forward cash flow situation.

    If you are truly cash-deficient, then I would also consider/explore some strategic defaults on several of those credit cards (depending on how the balances are spread out currently) before knocking out huge balances with a 401k loan.  I'm not an expert in this area, but I would presume you could do a 2-3 month default and then negotiate a chargeoff payment (or way lower interest rate?) to clear the balance and move-on.  This will obviously impact your short-term credit rating, but may be well worth the cumulative benefit especially if you don't foresee a need for new financing any time soon (note: obviously you would do this after your HELOC/REFI or whatever is decided for/against). 

    Nuclear option would also be to roll the dice on a balls-deep, across the board default, and then just change your cell phone numbers and let the chips fall where they may with the collections + civil judgments.  While I consider this to be a generally unethical action, but a case could be made that it's not as scummy since you used the money for terrible legal nightmare (as opposed to opulent bullshit), but that's between you and God.  Also fair to mention that nobody forced these card companies to issue unsecured debt in the first place, and perhaps our whole country would be in way better shape with respect to inflation + financial well-being if they did not extend such enormous credit lines at usurious rates that don't really lead anywhere else than moral hazard in most cases.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

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  10. And yes, Money Guy is an excellent starting point for someone in Zepol's situation....especially if he is interested in a values-based, debt-avoidance approach to finances and doesn't want to have his intelligence continuously insulted by Ramsey (although the Baby Steps are a good foundational concept).  

    Look up the Money Guy "Financial Order of Operations" and use it as a general barometer for assessing your current status.  If any of those topics are unfamiliar to you, there's many quick/easy MoneyGuy podcast and Youtubes that can help educate + determine your action plan.

  11. I've found Jim Dahle of the "White Coat Investor" to essentially be the most informative (and knowledgeable) financial person on the internet; and vast majority of that content/archives + podcast material is available 100% free of charge.  That said, one of his former sponsors (a REIT) was recently exposed as an insolvent quasi-scam that is in final stages of wiping out all equity investors (including Dahle himself), so even the good guys aren't immune to the bullshit.

     

     

  12. I'm in a place in life where I have disposable income and don't mind losing some for the simple thrill of watching the wheel turn and the ball bounce around.


    Will you get the same gambling thrill if you awaken one day to an email saying all your funds are now frozen due to the bankruptcy proceedings of your coin servicer, along with instructions for pursuing a partial recovery claim?
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    • Haha 1
  13. Yeah, it wasn’t perfect or evenly distributed, especially for minorities, but it was moving in the right direction.

    You’re actually correct (statistically) with respect to black people. Black homeownership reached its highest point in history (49%) in the very early 2000s; it presently stands at just over 40% today.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/most-black-americans-arent-homeowners-how-can-we-change-that-11615431459

    Black populations have also plunged (and community staples gentrified away) in nearly every major “progressive” US city within that same 20 year time frame.

    https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2022-03-14/us-black-population-the-biggest-growth-is-in-smaller-cities?context=amp (

    (key excerpt: Columbus is the only city included in the newest areas to which Black people are moving that is not in the South)

    We also know they have enormously higher rates of student loans and unsecured debt relative to 20 years ago…and their unemployment rate has not materially improved during that time frame.
  14. Reads like a post from a decade ago, or was it two decades?


    I was gonna say it reads like a bot fueled by a algorithm combo of Peter Schiff + Robert Kiyosaki twitter posts…and not at all in a good way.

    And I think SushiHorn is the alarmist you are remembering. His posts got me turned onto the market-ticker website (smart guy, but total autistic nutcase) when I was really young/dumb and had me partially brainwashed for a while.

    That said, gold continues to demonstrate its (primary) strength as a store of value in midst of this recent debacle. I think it’s up about 2% YTD, which is a helluva performance relative to most equities, risk assets, and the alleged “digital gold” of crypto.

    I own a decent amount of $GLD and I got very defensive in my retirement accounts in January, mainly because I hate losing money way more than I enjoy making it. So I’m basically flat across the board for 2022. Yay for me.

    As far as bullion being some magic elixir to a global economic meltdown, that’s just beyond stupid. Mob rule, mass starvation, etc is not gonna give a fuck about your “legal right” to coins/bars you may have purchased fair and square before the currency collapse.

    Also, as mentioned previous on this thread, coins will become widely counterfeited beyond the means that most any normal person could ascertain.

    My doomsday prepping begins and ends with my home defense firearms, ~6 week supply of nonperishable foods, first aid kits, a few cases of bottled water, and two “pretty nice” furnished rental properties (and two spare cars) with which to barter.

    I’m not naive enough to think for two seconds that any of us living on the grid have a legitimate chance of surviving a full scale catastrophe that extends/exceeds beyond those baseline shocks…or honestly if I’d even want to.
    • Hook 'Em 2
  15. You need to also amortize the $8k down over the 36 month lease payment (i.e. $222/mo), in addition to your standard monthlies.

    If you decide to give back the vehicle at end of the term you will not get any of that money refunded to you.

    Leasing used to be awesome when you could do so with minimal up front costs, and just swap out for new cars every 3 years. Whereas the scenario you described above just sounds like some sort of accounting reach-around to make you feel like you’re saving money. It’s still primarily a sellers market right now, no one is doing anyone any favors.

    Also, I’m not a lesbian, but I do know that Subarus tend to hold value better than just about any other vehicle at their equivalent price point..which therefore defeats a big portion of your perceived “lease benefit” because the depreciation is so much lower than most others.

    Another thing to consider is it’s generally a bigger insurance pain in the ass dealing with a totaled lease compared to one you own…espec with so much money tied up in upfront costs.

    If you want to spoil your daughter and have that much money to throw around, I’d recommend just buying it outright. If you’re rich enough to put $8k down on a brand new lease for a teenager you shouldn’t really care much about sales tax differentials.

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  16. Yeah fuck Urquidy for making one bad pitch and still turning in a quality start on the road.

    He’s the problem tonight, not the dickheads who mustered two hits and leave men on third with nobody out in key situation. Good grief.

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    • Like 1
  17. I noticed on Monday that Southwest Airlines has quietly removed *all* of their job postings; everything from corporate HQ, to maintenance, to airport ops…even pilots is now zero’d out.

    This is just weeks after they said frontline hiring was imperative to sustain their future schedules, but I guess the 30% YoY increase in fares wiped out customer demand faster than expected.

  18. If you want to be creative then just go to the front bar / lounge deal at Vargas (no reservations) for a couple early drinks and apps; Astros game should be on too. Then go (e.g. walk) wherever for your dinner. It’s a cool vibe in there and service has been good in my experience.

  19. If you’re spotted an 8 game lead in mid-June within a terribly inferior division, when is there ever going to be a better time/opportunity to see what Yordan is capable of doing at 1B?

    The contract ink is dry…it’s time to capitalize while there’s still time ample time to prepare for a playoff run.

    Yuli is still a helluva asset for late inning defense and pinch hitting in RBI situations where a fly ball is needed…but something has to give before he (and Bregman) torpedo yet another postseason.

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