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Nathan Jessep

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Posts posted by Nathan Jessep

  1. 1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

    Wait...you think it's "TBD" on whether Russia can capture Kyiv?

    No, TBD on whether the counteroffensive accomplishes anything meaningful.

    7 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

    Clausewitz would disagree with that.  According to Clausewitz, one wins a war by destroying the enemy's army.  The occupation of dirt is meaningless so long as the enemy's army remains as a force in being.

    This is the real point. Ukraine's army has been reloaded a couple times. The counteroffensive was the most significant one and at this point all brigades have been committed with significant losses in equipment and men. How many times can the smaller country sustain this without our direct involvement considering that Russia has ramped up their military machine? We have to escalate involvement or things are going to go bad.

    • Fuck You 23
  2. 3 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

    which way are the lines moving, east or west?

    East, minimally. But who's reloading, or even has the capacity to reload? 

     

    2 minutes ago, kevwun said:

    One of the trolls appears to be back.

    The truth hurts. Don't blame me, blame the Putin apologists at the NYT.

     

    4 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

    Don't feed that dumb fuck troll.

    Please sir.

     

    • Fuck You 28
  3. 6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

    ....by taking and holding territory.

    Russia demonstrably failed in their Plan A: to take and hold the bulk of Ukraine, including the capital.

    Russia is demonstrably facing challenges with their Plan B: to hold the limited territory that they DID capture.

    Cut out all the noise, you're right.  Wars are won based on dirt controlled.  Russia has already lost with respect to its primary objective, and has no real prospects of re-attempting that objective (it has demonstrated no real counter-offensive capability in the past year+).  The jury remains out on its secondary objective, but it's already lost territory it once controlled, and continues to lose more, albeit more slowly than most of us would like.

    But in terms of what those "men and weapons" are actually ACCOMPLISHING, Ukraine has done and continues to do quite well.  Certainly way above expectations, just like Russia has performed way below expectations.

    Agree on the first point.

    TBD on the second. Gains have been disappointing and far less than expected if anyone is being honest. Especially when you consider, what armor and equipment are we going to commit next? This was the big shot and it hasn't landed. The next step is an increase in involvement or exit ramp imo.

    Dirt controlled is important but when your population and fighting force is a fraction of the size of your adversary then men and equipment can mean even more. 

    • Fuck You 24
  4. 52 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

    I guess the silver lining is they can't build artillery or replace barrels often enough to shoot all of those shells. Seven times the number but less than seven times as accurate.

    CHIEF

     

    47 minutes ago, Captainant said:

    TBH I'd love for them to try to keep shooting with their worn out barrels. Automatic counterbattery fire!

    Barrel shortage? According to whom? The same sources that told you they were almost out of missiles or that the sanctions were working?

    The information we are generally being fed WRT to this war appears to be faulty. Occasionally you get drips out of major media outlets like today that tell a different tale. They're quickly brushed aside in favor of dog memes or PR stunts. 

    Case in point.

    39 minutes ago, The Dog said:

    image.thumb.png.6b4c603c354bb3debae4fc5c233cb95f.png

    Dog memes and "good PR" don't win wars. Men and weapons do. As the conflict stands now Russia has more of those than Ukraine and the gap looks to be widening especially considering the rumored Russian mobilization. We will need to get more directly involved and get on a true war footing to stop Ukrainian defeat. If we can't muster the support for that, theyre screwed.

    • Fuck You 24
  5. 3 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

    Quick hit on the North Korea meeting. First, it’s of course hugely embarrassing for VVP that the massive Russian Federation has to go begging to the worlds 118th economy, a reviled totalitarian Mordor, for weapons to extend a failing war.  Sanctions work. 

    How is it failing? Sanctions are working?

     

    A couple interesting sections.

    "American and Western officials say there is some good news. Russian production is still not keeping pace with how fast the military is burning through ammunition and wearing out equipment. For example, even though Russia is on pace to produce two million rounds of ammunition a year, it fired about 10 million rounds of artillery last year. That has led Moscow to desperately search for alternative sources to increase its stocks, most recently by trying to secure a weapons deal with North Korea, U.S. and Western officials said."

    But here's the kicker from earlier in the piece.

    "Western officials also believe Russia is on track to manufacture two million artillery shells a year — double the amount Western intelligence services had initially estimated Russia could manufacture before the war.

    As a result of the push, Russia is now producing more ammunition than the United States and Europe. Overall, Kusti Salm, a senior Estonian defense ministry official, estimated that Russia’s current ammunition production is seven times greater than that of the West."

    Seven times. wtf

    It seems pretty clear that the West has to escalate involvement significantly otherwise Ukraine is fucked as it stands now.

    Perhaps should have negotiated as Milley suggested when Russia was on back foot.

    • Fuck You 21
  6. 1 hour ago, Captainant said:

    Just like how minimal adjustments to historically stagnant wages paid to laborers was attributed by the brain trust to be the cause of inflation. Not the historically high margins being taken by firms and record stock buybacks to enrich shareholders, of course

    WTF Happened In 1971?

    plenty of interesting charts available there

    or here's a good one from today's Twitterzzz

     

     

     

    • Fuck You 1
    • Drool 1
  7. On 9/9/2023 at 6:49 PM, 956 Worldwide said:

    vote for their own leaders

    But they're postponing their own elections now.

     

    19 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

    Congress never declared war on Al Qaeda, either.  You gonna aid their efforts as well, Elmo?

    Al Qaeda attacked us directly.

     

    On 9/9/2023 at 7:01 PM, 956 Worldwide said:

    Just remember y’all, there’s no such thing as Russian disinformation and if there is it’s ineffective.

    Disinfo is everywhere. Unfortunately, after all the touching stove moments it's left up to individuals to try to decipher what's right or wrong. 

    • Fuck You 19
  8. 12 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

    ? Transmission issues aren't just a renewable problem. We have aging infrastructure that we have deferred replacing and adding to. The bill is just finally coming due. 

    The article linked directly stated that there was a problem transmitting electricity from wind generation in south texas to the rest of the state. 
     

    That’s one of the basic problems with renewables. Electricity is generated far from the users. I’ve seen that California forecasts $30B just in transmission buildout to meet net zero. 

    • Fuck You 7
  9. 2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

     

    Power output being curtailed because of congested transmission lines is a huge issue. It’s going to take years to catch up…if we ever do.

    This happens ALL THE TIME.

    Yeah it’s one of the “firming” costs associated with renewables.  It will cost Billions to build out. People will question why their electricity costs more. And so on. 

    • Fuck You 8
  10. 1 hour ago, Captainant said:

    This is a fucking problem. We should not have utility operators and exchange platforms seeking to intentionally increase the price of their utility through induced instability. That's literally just doing an Enron.

     

    Also, lulz at the "new" poster chiming in to downplay the cryptofuck subsidy. Is it a new GRUhorn sock I smell?

    I like how seeking clarification on some gaudy numbers gets you accused of being some dipshit crypto poster. 
     

    Seems that you’re a little embarrassed you got emotionally triggered by some obviously off numbers. You must be easily duped.
     

    A little healthy skepticism is always warranted. 

    • Haha 2
  11. 1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

    The Chronicle article was clearly not reviewed by anyone with technical expertise. Those figures mix apples and oranges. The 33 GWs refers to planned projects requesting to connect to the grid, many of which will never come online or will not do so for years. The 6 GWs for Houston refers to actual (I assume peak? average?) power usage for Houston homes. The article also uses the term energy consumption, which isn't typically measured in watts but rather watt hours. Watts just tell you instantaneous power, not total energy consumption over time. As an example, running at 1 GW for 1 hour will consume 1 GWh of energy. Your figure on record demand refers to actual peak usage for the day.

    I think right now there about 2 GWs of Bitcoin projects connected to the grid. That just means that at any one moment they could draw up to a max of 2 GW of power. I assume these sort of project runs pretty close to maximum as much as possible, but I don't really know one way or the other.  

    Thanks for the explanation. Typical contemporary news story. Outrage achieved. Clicks attained. Mission accomplished. 

    • Hook 'Em 2
  12. 1 hour ago, Captainant said:

    Just a bit more from some Chronicle reporting...

    So these cryptofucks are burning more than FIVE HOUSTON'S worth of residential electricity usage annually. AND WE'RE FUCKING PAYING THEM TO TURN OFF WHEN WE NEED SOME MORE ENERGY! And we all get to pay an extra $25 a month on our bills to fund this shit.

     

    It's pants-on-head stupid. 

    Let me get this straight. This is complicated to me. 
     

    We just hit a demand record of ~85GW the other day. 
     

    Bitcoin mining is up to 33GW of usage?

     

    So bitcoin mining is almost 40% of capacity, but when needed they turn off and give power back to the grid for money? These seem like crazy numbers. 
     

    I guess the flip side is how much of that capacity would be profitable and running for ercot if there weren’t bitcoin miners using the electricity at lower demand times. 
     

     

  13. 48 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

    Did the Heritage Foundation put out it's annual "What if Households spent money like the Government" paper? Did the "King of Debt" comment on the Biden deficit? Why are any of you surprised the deficit blew up when we raised rates

    Top economist here calls the increase “stunning”.  Maybe he should’ve logged onto Surly and DM’d @StassneyHornto get the obvious news. 
     

    https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1698391469881455098?s=46&t=uKnL2agxvSx0rJZI2y3iWw

     

     

     

     

  14. 58 minutes ago, statsman said:

    I’m going to not go CR, but am going to warn about CR-

    I’m a conservative. I like this thread (hate this war) because I think supporting Ukraine advances the cause of freedom. I have repped dozens of posters on this thread who would find almost no kinship with me on domestic politics. Finding common ground feeds my optimism about America. 
     
    Im not the only conservative. This is a link to the podcast of Jim Geraghty, of National Review (and new conservative opinion writer at the WP). He went to Ukraine, and talks about it. He supports Ukrainian freedom and opposes Russian aggression. His 30 minute podcast, linked here, avoids domestic politics (except to note that most of our munitions aid is stuff we didn’t need) and describes Ukrainian efforts to resist, and atrocities by Russia. 
     
    https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/3-martini-lunch-podcast/id417007039?i=1000626706063

    CR warning- for many of you, if you listen to any of his other podcasts, you will come back to this thread and neg rep me. Please don’t. 

    IMG-7139.gif

    stop apologizing. If people can’t handle someone they don’t like, agreeing with them on this then they can pound sand. 

  15. 3 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

    Attrition makes for poor headlines, but it plays to Ukraine’s strengths

    I’m glad things are slowly turning, but it is nonsensical to say that attrition plays to Ukraine’s strengths. 
     

    Have to hope the slow moving grind eventually causes big break because Ukraine cannot afford the same losses in manpower and equipment they’ve had the last 3 months proportionally all the way to the Sea of Azov. 

  16. 49 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

     

    I think this is a good move that shows a commitment to addressing corruption, not that Reznikov was corrupt by any means, but he oversaw a ministry that has had some recent scandals that in and of themselves were not significant but kinda trickled into something worth addressing. He would've been gone sooner if he wasn't so effective, and he's reportedly gifted at connecting and building relationships. The rumor is that Reznikov will become Ambassador to Great Britain. 

    If you’re winning, i don’t see how it can be a good thing to have unplanned changes in leadership. Hopefully the new guy doesn’t rock the boat too much. 

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