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Posts posted by berlinerbaer
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It’s all just noise until these assholes start losing elections.
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1 hour ago, kevwun said:
I posted this in the Shutdown thread, but it belongs here.
Trump is the crazy ex they can't quit for a large chunk of this country. They miss him when he's not in the White House, but then he lights everything on fire and everything goes to shit and they remember why they broke up with him in the first place. As long as he's in office, he reminds people weekly of how terrible he is and they don't fondly look back on the good ole days that only exist in their head. Trump in power costs Republicans elections. It's when he's out of office that he helps them. It doesn't make any sense unless you look at it from the crazy ex angle
He only helps the GOP win elections when he is on the ballot. He is a net negative otherwise, whether in office or not.
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I would hit up this one Mexican restaurant called Alcatraz in Berlin frequently with friends, mostly because the margs were damn good, as were all of the other drinks. The food was tasty, but odd. Not a chili in sight. The fajitas were heavily seasoned with thyme and bay leaves.
I found this great taco place Dolores late into my stay there. Highly recommend.
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2 hours ago, Sawbonz said:
If you’re a progressive Medicare for all is great branding. If you are a centrist (in the traditional sense; no such thing these days) it triggers images of higher taxes and inefficient delivery to the end user. Is there a better catch phrase? Maybe not
Medicare for You
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11 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:
And what do we say to this hypothetical problem?
Not today…
Who says it’s hypothetical?
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One of these days a legit ex-MAGA is going to run for office as a Dem and all of us from the Center to the left need to decide what we are going to do. Is it disqualifying?
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On 10/23/2025 at 2:30 PM, chainsaw said:
That's valid. Voters in Maine find outsiders untrustworthy, and I'm sure there are many vocal leftists in Maine who will abstain from the Dem primary because they'd rather participate in the Green Party primary. Coming at this from an electoral standpoint, Platner's politics are much better than those of Mills or Collins, even if his politics are worse than some of the other theoretical alternatives, none of whom have a prayer because if they did we'd already have heard of them.
Don't like him because he probably did bad stuff while deployed? I can respect that. No disagreement from me, there, just as I wouldn't criticize someone who refused to vote for Harris due to her weak position on the genocide in Gaza. Murder, war crimes, and genocide are simply a bridge too far for some people, and that's ok.
Don't like him because he used to say the f-slur and had questionable views on race? I respect that as well, but I disagree with the mentality behind refusing to allow people to shed their prior bad opinions. This is especially counterproductive in the face of so many people (especially men under 50) who were reliable Democratic voters in their 20s and 30s but who moved away from the party around the same time as #MeToo. The opposition is actively recruiting converts. Hell, even Donald Trump himself had been a self-identifying Liberal Elite for much of his adult life. So, it stands to reason that if the right is willing to forgive people for their prior progressive views and embrace converts, the left should be willing to forgive people for their prior regressive views and welcome ex-chuds. Better late than never, and we truly need all hands on deck. TLDR, unlike murder and war crimes, I don't think having had bad opinions in the past should be categorically disqualifying.
Don't like him because he's too dumb to realize he had a Nazi tattoo? I find that uncharitable to him and strategically short-sighted. I'm not a history buff by any means, but even in the areas where I consider myself to be more knowledgeable than most people, I still learn new things on a regular basis. Until more evidence comes out, I'm going to allow him the benefit of the doubt. Even if he told anonymous strangers online that he studied history, that doesn't automatically mean he downloaded encyclopedic knowledge of Nazi iconography or that he was shirtless around someone who would have known that. And according to him, the people who should have known that, the ones responsible for verifying that he was eligible to serve in a different branch of the Armed Forces and to have whatever security clearance he needed for his stint with Blackwater, seemed not to have noticed, either.
Calling him a secret Nazi, on a day like today where no other evidence of his supposed Nazi views has been publicized, is not something I would take seriously. If Mainers disagree, let them be the ones to say so. As has been mentioned before, if he's as dumb as some people think he is, then it's more likely than not that future and more damaging oppo will come to light that would disqualify him for other reasons.
This does seem very coordinated, and the reason I believe they're coming after him with so much firepower is because they are terrified of another Mamdani (whom they arrogantly believed would lose the primary) and want to take him out now before his support and profile have grown beyond a certain point of no return. It's intended as a warning shot to any other working class candidates who would ever dare to run on a similar platform. The message is that politics is only for Type-A, Student Government, social climbers like Pete Buttigieg who were grown in a lab to become politicians. Working people with checkered pasts need not apply, unless they embrace MAGA.
We'll see what else comes out about him. I think it's a mistake for the left to treat veterans as irredeemable, but I respect and understand the opposing viewpoint.
I agree with pretty much all of this and am convinced that this was orchestrated by the Mills campaign, it being brought out just a week or two after she announced her candidacy. That being said, the Collins campaign is more than capable of unveiling the same shit and would have done so 11 months from now to sink him at the worst time. Better to air this out early and let Maine voters decide.
Don't get tattoos, kids.
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3 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:
He set a fundraising record. Yay. After Beto, I'm not throwing any money towards a D candidate in Texas. Sorry. I feel like I might as well just light that money on fire. This state has proven, over and over, that it will not elect a D in the current political environment.
We have no way of knowing when the current political environment will end until it finally does.
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On 9/26/2025 at 12:53 PM, Bozo_Casanova said:
Shutdown-ready Trump expects Democrats to blink
It seems like everyone expects this to happen, and I agree. @Bateshorn I’m curious what the vibe is on the ground
I hate this game. As a matter of principle I don’t think the Government should ever shut down. The debt ceiling should be eliminated, for the simply reason that it has totally failed in its ostensible purpose and incentivizes playing chicken with people’s lives.
a few points on the politics:
1) For the first time I can remember, there is *zero* reason for the minority party to help the majority with this.
2) For once, I think the President’s usually excellent political instincts have failed him on two points:First, If a prolonged shutdown happens, the GOP will wear it, and he’ll wear more of it than the Senate and House leadership. He has successfully convinced the public that he’s fully in control. He’ll actually take the blame here on the Republican side, and it will surprise him.
Second, I don’t think the Democrats will cave this time. Of course it’s a lose-lose situation, but I *think* they have realized that the price of weakness is higher than the price of a shutdown, both long-term and short-term.
The GOP will have to fix this themselves.
3) Of course, there are any number of ways the Democrats could cock this up. This is the party of Elizabeth Warren, after all. But all they really need to do here is play possum because the public doesn’t seem to expect the Government to actually shut down, and if it does, and a couple weeks go by, there’s going to be considerable heat and GOP reps and senators are going to wind up with the hot potato when the president throws it in their direction if the Dems don’t fold.
Off topic but I’m not sure why you’re shitting on Liz Warren.
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We all like Jimmy a lot but have differing outlooks on his chances. Seeing you on here gives me hope he’s connecting with a new cohort of independent voters. We’re still over a year away but I think his campaign is off to a great start. I think he’ll win the primary. The base will get on their phones and door knock their neighborhoods for him next year.
The post up thread about his framing of the issues as The 1% versus the rest of us was spot on. I think that will speak volumes next year when the economy is in the shitter. He has a winning message.
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I applaud the OP for starting one of the most useful threads on this forum in the last 11 months. Hopefully, we'll see some ideas.
Short term: get to the protests on Oct 18 and wean yourselves off of corporate media as best you can.
Medium term: take the 2026 primary elections seriously. Lots of Dems need to be shown the door. They are likely to take back the House and we need some real fighters who aren't afraid to wield power.
On 9/18/2025 at 10:43 PM, cmontexas said:Can you point me towards one instance in history of Fascism being defeated by domestic public challenges without significant foreign support?
Yes, the people have been able to kick Authoritarianism aside may times, but we're not there yet. A popular leader is needed to put it into place. Hugo Chavez had a sky high approval rating during his first few years as president of Venezuela and used it to overhaul the constitution.
If Trump ushers this country into Authoritarianism, it may be a first as unpopular as he is.
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Fuck you all. I tossed Jimmy $50 and I’ll be door-knocking this time next year, just like I did back in ‘18.
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On 9/6/2025 at 10:32 AM, cactusflinthead said:
I'm not so much angry as deeply disappointed. He wasted the goodwill we had for him. I can't say that it's radically different with Beto. Maybe Talarico can thread the needle. It's at least where I am going to send my dollars. Beto is better off being a fighter overall in support but that gun comment is going to be an albatross. He's not wrong, but damn son that's a third rail.
Beto ran a superb campaign on the ground of thousands of volunteers. That is why he came within 2 points of knocking off Ted. Allred ran jack shit other than a money raising machine. There were activists clamoring for something to do last fall who were ignored, or just told to donate more.
Talarico will more effectively employ volunteers than Allred did. Maybe not Beto levels, but I suspect he will let the organizers organize.
23 hours ago, chainsaw said:Donors like to get behind losers. Especially in Texas.
This applies to the Democratic party as a whole. They are told by their donors to do politics with one hand tied behind their back.
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On 9/5/2025 at 10:59 PM, Hermanator said:
The lack of any Christians of note coming together to fight to destroy the charlatans using their religion to grift, steal, and spread hatred had me convinced the whole thing is a scam. You'd think if even 30 percent of Christians were good people they'd band together to fight the trash.
A multitude of Christian organizations are suing DHS for conducting ICE raids in places of worship. You aren't hearing about this because the media is in Trump's pocket. Do some research before you accuse anyone or a group of people of inaction.
https://democracyforward.org/updates/houses-of-worship/
QuoteThe lawsuit was filed by Democracy Forward, the Washington Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights and Urban Affairs, and Gilbert LLP on behalf of: New England Synod, Evangelical Lutheran Church in America; Greater Milwaukee Synod, Evangelical Lutheran Church in America; Southwest California Synod, Evangelical Lutheran Church in America; Southwestern Texas Synod, Evangelical Lutheran Church in America; Sierra Pacific Synod, Evangelical Lutheran Church in America; San Francisco Friends Meeting of the Religious Society of Friends; Pacific Yearly Meeting of the Religious Society of Friends; North Pacific Yearly Meeting of the Religious Society of Friends; American Baptist Churches USA; Alliance of Baptists; and Metropolitan Community Churches.
It's a start, and it's significant if you step back and look.
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Not a surprise coming from Schumer who has been in Congress forever, but Jeffries is a colossal disappointment. There has to be some struggling bartender in the NY-8th that can primary him...
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Allred gets a primary challenger!
Former Air Force, former astronaut. Seems centristy. There's some canned messaging mixed in with a little edginess. 5 out of 10.
QuoteI’ve orbited Earth 3,400 times wearing an American flag on my flight suit. I’ve seen Texas from space — from the rocky and dusty expanse of the Permian Basin to the turquoise pastels of the Gulf coast. A great land that is home to ranchers in Bandera, roughnecks in Midland, teachers in Houston, nurses in El Paso, line cooks in Dallas and millions of other Texans in one view. It strikes you from up there just how connected we are and how special Texas is.
Yawn
QuoteBut it demands a course-correction for our politicians. Honesty, courage, and a clean break from the past. But unbelievably, Washington Democratic leaders are still clinging to the same old ideas and tired playbooks that got us in the mess to begin with. So unless we want Corrupt Ken Paxton as the next senator from Texas, we need a common-sense Democrat willing to call out the BS—just as I’ve been doing my whole life.
OK
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4 hours ago, Dbeasy said:
Somewhere months ago there was a credible article about some mathematician who did a statistical analysis of the voting patterns across the country and concluded the odds were something like a billion to one that type of voting patterns would have happened. I laughed at Magats who questioned the 2020 election, but with Elon and Russia firmly backing Trump, the possibility of fraud in the 2024 election is certainly not zero.
The rightward shift from 2020 to 2024 in the swing states was less, at 3 - 4 points, than it was in the rest of the country (more like 6 - 7). That doesn't point to any tampering.
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8 hours ago, VABuckeye said:
Question. I've been seeing some reports that by redistricting and guaranteeing 5 more red seats that Texas has put 10 other districts at risk. Is there truth to this? It would be epic if that's how it plays out.
Yes, it's true. There are only so many R voters and they are being drawn out of safe R districts to flip safe D districts. There is a lot of predicted light pink within the rural parts of the triangle/central TX right now when before it was all ruby red.
I've seen serious analysis that shows only 3 of the 5 Republican gains are likely to pan out. They made the error in fully flipping Casar, Green's, and a rep by Dallas' seats (not Crockett) but just barely nudged Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez's seats rightward, even though those two are probably the most difficult to dislodge. Team Turnip honestly believes their gains with Latinos will stick, so they didn't think they needed to mess with South Texas much. Trump won both of those seats while the Dem reps both won by several points. In a likely 2026 environment, with an 8 - 10 point R to D swing, they likely stay blue.
That says nothing about the rest of the state, where the R vote is being spread out to attack those three deep blue seats. Surprises are possible.
Meanwhile, if it comes to pass, the 5 flips from R to D targeted in California are highly likely to play out.
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4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:
This is what I've been saying. We need to follow the playbook that works. Lie. Lie big, lie loud, lie often -- like, relentlessly. Spout the lies at machine-gun pace. And make them outrageous, outlandish, inflammatory lies. "Donald Trump stole $500 billion from you taxpayers, and used it to pay for sex with underage girls." Shit like that. Seriously, not only does the truth no longer matter, the truth is an anchor tied around your waist as you plunge to the inky black depths. Shed that fucking anchor, break free to the surface, and win under the new rules. Lie like nobody has ever lied before, and never apologize or admit you were wrong. Instead, repeat the lie. Inflame the people who will vote your way, and feed those fucking flames with new fuel 24/7.
TLDR; do whatever it takes to capture the gullible idiot vote, they're the only demographic that matters.
The truth is on our side. We don't need to lie.
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On 8/4/2025 at 8:37 PM, berlinerbaer said:
Most blue states have independent commissions. Most red states and many purple states do not. If the commissions went away, the Dems would net a bunch of seats.
Everyone is talking about California, but I think eliminating the commission in CA requires a ballot measure because it was enacted by ballot measure and a change in the state constitution. It's not a given that the voters will repeal it, since it's the kind of thing only partisan Dems would vote for.
The few Dem states that do gerrymander (NY, IL, MD) will need to go hard to the paint, as will the few more that have commissions set up by laws that can be repealed by the legislature. I don't think CA is the way.
Looks like I'm wrong and CA voters would pass a mid-decade gerrymander according to a poll done by a TV station in Sacramento.
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I don't like seeing this thread bumped.
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7 hours ago, Dutchrudder said:
Yeah the only way that happens, and it absolutely should happen, is if Congress passes a new Voting Rights act and SCOTUS upholds it. Not happening for quite some time, so in the mean time they gotta play the game. I think there are a lot more seats to be gained by Dems in Blue states than what the Rs can squeeze out of their states.
Most blue states have independent commissions. Most red states and many purple states do not. If the commissions went away, the Dems would net a bunch of seats.
Everyone is talking about California, but I think eliminating the commission in CA requires a ballot measure because it was enacted by ballot measure and a change in the state constitution. It's not a given that the voters will repeal it, since it's the kind of thing only partisan Dems would vote for.
The few Dem states that do gerrymander (NY, IL, MD) will need to go hard to the paint, as will the few more that have commissions set up by laws that can be repealed by the legislature. I don't think CA is the way.
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13 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:
id be curious to see the R/D splits. they're assuming all R's will stay R, or factoring in losing a certain % ?
doubtful those numbers would ever be public
Word is they are assuming 2024 voting patterns to get to a +5 R pickup.
Edit: He meant 5ish seats in 2024, not 2026.
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We don’t need a third party. We just need one party to have serious primary challengers next year.
I think there is enough anger within the Dem base for it to happen. We can’t just accept whomever the Party anoints. Looking at you, Colin.
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Texas GQP is spontaneously combusting
in Cloak Room
Posted
Bingo