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Posts posted by berlinerbaer
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On 9/6/2025 at 10:32 AM, cactusflinthead said:
I'm not so much angry as deeply disappointed. He wasted the goodwill we had for him. I can't say that it's radically different with Beto. Maybe Talarico can thread the needle. It's at least where I am going to send my dollars. Beto is better off being a fighter overall in support but that gun comment is going to be an albatross. He's not wrong, but damn son that's a third rail.
Beto ran a superb campaign on the ground of thousands of volunteers. That is why he came within 2 points of knocking off Ted. Allred ran jack shit other than a money raising machine. There were activists clamoring for something to do last fall who were ignored, or just told to donate more.
Talarico will more effectively employ volunteers than Allred did. Maybe not Beto levels, but I suspect he will let the organizers organize.
23 hours ago, chainsaw said:Donors like to get behind losers. Especially in Texas.
This applies to the Democratic party as a whole. They are told by their donors to do politics with one hand tied behind their back.
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On 9/5/2025 at 10:59 PM, Hermanator said:
The lack of any Christians of note coming together to fight to destroy the charlatans using their religion to grift, steal, and spread hatred had me convinced the whole thing is a scam. You'd think if even 30 percent of Christians were good people they'd band together to fight the trash.
A multitude of Christian organizations are suing DHS for conducting ICE raids in places of worship. You aren't hearing about this because the media is in Trump's pocket. Do some research before you accuse anyone or a group of people of inaction.
https://democracyforward.org/updates/houses-of-worship/
QuoteThe lawsuit was filed by Democracy Forward, the Washington Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights and Urban Affairs, and Gilbert LLP on behalf of: New England Synod, Evangelical Lutheran Church in America; Greater Milwaukee Synod, Evangelical Lutheran Church in America; Southwest California Synod, Evangelical Lutheran Church in America; Southwestern Texas Synod, Evangelical Lutheran Church in America; Sierra Pacific Synod, Evangelical Lutheran Church in America; San Francisco Friends Meeting of the Religious Society of Friends; Pacific Yearly Meeting of the Religious Society of Friends; North Pacific Yearly Meeting of the Religious Society of Friends; American Baptist Churches USA; Alliance of Baptists; and Metropolitan Community Churches.
It's a start, and it's significant if you step back and look.
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Not a surprise coming from Schumer who has been in Congress forever, but Jeffries is a colossal disappointment. There has to be some struggling bartender in the NY-8th that can primary him...
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Allred gets a primary challenger!
Former Air Force, former astronaut. Seems centristy. There's some canned messaging mixed in with a little edginess. 5 out of 10.
QuoteI’ve orbited Earth 3,400 times wearing an American flag on my flight suit. I’ve seen Texas from space — from the rocky and dusty expanse of the Permian Basin to the turquoise pastels of the Gulf coast. A great land that is home to ranchers in Bandera, roughnecks in Midland, teachers in Houston, nurses in El Paso, line cooks in Dallas and millions of other Texans in one view. It strikes you from up there just how connected we are and how special Texas is.
Yawn
QuoteBut it demands a course-correction for our politicians. Honesty, courage, and a clean break from the past. But unbelievably, Washington Democratic leaders are still clinging to the same old ideas and tired playbooks that got us in the mess to begin with. So unless we want Corrupt Ken Paxton as the next senator from Texas, we need a common-sense Democrat willing to call out the BS—just as I’ve been doing my whole life.
OK
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4 hours ago, Dbeasy said:
Somewhere months ago there was a credible article about some mathematician who did a statistical analysis of the voting patterns across the country and concluded the odds were something like a billion to one that type of voting patterns would have happened. I laughed at Magats who questioned the 2020 election, but with Elon and Russia firmly backing Trump, the possibility of fraud in the 2024 election is certainly not zero.
The rightward shift from 2020 to 2024 in the swing states was less, at 3 - 4 points, than it was in the rest of the country (more like 6 - 7). That doesn't point to any tampering.
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8 hours ago, VABuckeye said:
Question. I've been seeing some reports that by redistricting and guaranteeing 5 more red seats that Texas has put 10 other districts at risk. Is there truth to this? It would be epic if that's how it plays out.
Yes, it's true. There are only so many R voters and they are being drawn out of safe R districts to flip safe D districts. There is a lot of predicted light pink within the rural parts of the triangle/central TX right now when before it was all ruby red.
I've seen serious analysis that shows only 3 of the 5 Republican gains are likely to pan out. They made the error in fully flipping Casar, Green's, and a rep by Dallas' seats (not Crockett) but just barely nudged Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez's seats rightward, even though those two are probably the most difficult to dislodge. Team Turnip honestly believes their gains with Latinos will stick, so they didn't think they needed to mess with South Texas much. Trump won both of those seats while the Dem reps both won by several points. In a likely 2026 environment, with an 8 - 10 point R to D swing, they likely stay blue.
That says nothing about the rest of the state, where the R vote is being spread out to attack those three deep blue seats. Surprises are possible.
Meanwhile, if it comes to pass, the 5 flips from R to D targeted in California are highly likely to play out.
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4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:
This is what I've been saying. We need to follow the playbook that works. Lie. Lie big, lie loud, lie often -- like, relentlessly. Spout the lies at machine-gun pace. And make them outrageous, outlandish, inflammatory lies. "Donald Trump stole $500 billion from you taxpayers, and used it to pay for sex with underage girls." Shit like that. Seriously, not only does the truth no longer matter, the truth is an anchor tied around your waist as you plunge to the inky black depths. Shed that fucking anchor, break free to the surface, and win under the new rules. Lie like nobody has ever lied before, and never apologize or admit you were wrong. Instead, repeat the lie. Inflame the people who will vote your way, and feed those fucking flames with new fuel 24/7.
TLDR; do whatever it takes to capture the gullible idiot vote, they're the only demographic that matters.
The truth is on our side. We don't need to lie.
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On 8/4/2025 at 8:37 PM, berlinerbaer said:
Most blue states have independent commissions. Most red states and many purple states do not. If the commissions went away, the Dems would net a bunch of seats.
Everyone is talking about California, but I think eliminating the commission in CA requires a ballot measure because it was enacted by ballot measure and a change in the state constitution. It's not a given that the voters will repeal it, since it's the kind of thing only partisan Dems would vote for.
The few Dem states that do gerrymander (NY, IL, MD) will need to go hard to the paint, as will the few more that have commissions set up by laws that can be repealed by the legislature. I don't think CA is the way.
Looks like I'm wrong and CA voters would pass a mid-decade gerrymander according to a poll done by a TV station in Sacramento.
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I don't like seeing this thread bumped.
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7 hours ago, Dutchrudder said:
Yeah the only way that happens, and it absolutely should happen, is if Congress passes a new Voting Rights act and SCOTUS upholds it. Not happening for quite some time, so in the mean time they gotta play the game. I think there are a lot more seats to be gained by Dems in Blue states than what the Rs can squeeze out of their states.
Most blue states have independent commissions. Most red states and many purple states do not. If the commissions went away, the Dems would net a bunch of seats.
Everyone is talking about California, but I think eliminating the commission in CA requires a ballot measure because it was enacted by ballot measure and a change in the state constitution. It's not a given that the voters will repeal it, since it's the kind of thing only partisan Dems would vote for.
The few Dem states that do gerrymander (NY, IL, MD) will need to go hard to the paint, as will the few more that have commissions set up by laws that can be repealed by the legislature. I don't think CA is the way.
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13 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:
id be curious to see the R/D splits. they're assuming all R's will stay R, or factoring in losing a certain % ?
doubtful those numbers would ever be public
Word is they are assuming 2024 voting patterns to get to a +5 R pickup.
Edit: He meant 5ish seats in 2024, not 2026.
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We don’t need a third party. We just need one party to have serious primary challengers next year.
I think there is enough anger within the Dem base for it to happen. We can’t just accept whomever the Party anoints. Looking at you, Colin.
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16 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:
I believe Texas law forbids counties of low population from being cracked open. This map shouldn't fly for that reason.
QuoteOften referred to as the "county line rule," Section 26, Article III, Texas Constitution, as modified by the federal courts to comply with the one-person, one-vote standard mandated by the Fourteenth Amendment, requires that house districts be apportioned among the counties according to the most recent federal decennial census population, subject to the following:
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a county with sufficient population for exactly one district must be formed into a single district;
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a county with a population smaller than the population needed for a whole district must be kept whole and combined with one or more contiguous counties to form a district;
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a county that has sufficient population for two or more whole districts must be divided into that number of districts, with no district extending into another county; and
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each county with a population sufficient for one or more whole districts plus a fraction of another district must be divided into that many whole districts, with the excess population added to one or more contiguous counties to form an additional district.
In practice, it is sometimes impossible to draw a statewide plan that completely satisfies these rules while maintaining districts with equal populations. The Texas courts have allowed a house plan to violate the county line rule to the limited extent necessary to draw a plan that complies with the federal one‐person, one‐vote requirement. For example, a county with less than the population needed for a single house district may be split between districts when no other option is available to create equally populated house districts.
https://redistricting.capitol.texas.gov/reqs
That being said, rule 3 is violated all the time.
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22 hours ago, 254512 said:
I can’t find the interview to post, but Talarico was spitting fire Tuesday night on MSNBC. His quote- “The only minorities destroying America are the billionaires.”
I and maybe thousands of others have had this exact quote written on a sign over the past few months. I think Texas Dems are starting to get with it. This is exhibit A.
Exhibit B is the Dems making a spectacle out of the upcoming redistricting hearings this Saturday.
Nothing to lose
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Texas Dems are holding a rally right before the Texas House public hearings on redistricting are supposed to be held in the same general area.
Are they learning?
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Try to show up if you can.
Edit: More details regarding venues to come...
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It's early but Jon Ossoff is running way ahead of likely Republican challengers, both in fundraising and polling. Kemp declined to run against him.
If he's at 49% with 10% undecided, in a R pollster, this thing is over.
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3 hours ago, BrickHorn said:
These people have the weirdest fixations. Reasonable people recognize that government exists to do things like providing basic public services, writing and enforcing laws, regulating commerce, providing for national defense, etc.
But MAGA clearly believes the most important function of government is to release secret information that answers a litany of inane questions posed by wild-haired kooks on late night History Channel programs. They literally vote for any candidate who promises to release nonexistent top secret intel on sensationalist topics.
Release the UFO files!
Publish the Epstein list!
Tell us who really shot JFK!
Hell, Kamala might have won if she had only promised to let Americans line up to submerge their hands in the vat of formaldehyde the CIA is keeping Hitler’s brain alive in.
It’s asinine.
It’s white privilege in a nutshell
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38 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:
Fine. We can get healthcare back. We can't get lands back once they are sold and privatized.
All of this.
The AI provision banning any regulation for a decade was also scrapped. Maybe responsible governance can address that shit 4 years from now.
The Dems need to take the House in 2026 and play hardball with the budget and try to chip away at the edges of this monstrosity.
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Yes. Politics is performative. I’d rather the Dems play the game to win if that is how it’s done.
He gets a C-/D+ for the semester. At least a damn good final exam score kept him from failing outright.
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53 minutes ago, CTC2 said:
Then it would be the first time in our history that a political party just gave up on an election cycle in exchange for a once in a generation terrible piece of legislation. The cuts to things in this bill will reverberate for decades.
If this bill can undo prior legislation then there is no reason a future bill couldn’t undo this one.
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1 hour ago, Goofyboy said:
Where by the airport? Along 90 heading towards 99??Yes, on the north side of the highway but out of view. You can see some signs of construction if you look across the airport after passing hwy 6.
1 hour ago, Bullneck said:That's her. In the run-off we were stuck between choosing her or this guy. I'm sorry. Can't trust cowboy hats here in the suburbs.
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There are (were?) plans to build a gas power plant here in Sugar Land city limits, by the airport. I have been aware of petitions that have been going around, and the issue came up in the local mayoral and city council elections last month. The anointed candidate ended up losing the mayoral race to some current council member known locally as "Ms. No" who literally is against everything. I went along with the fervor even though I reflexively dislike NIMBYism and have been telling people I know that this is a problem at the state, and now federal level, and not a local issue.
But after this bullshit, turns out the NIMBYs were right all along, and a new strategy needs to emerge where the fight occurs at the local level. In my dream, it would also entail neighboring communities helping each other out to the point of encompassing the entire state.
People are waking the fuck up.
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4 hours ago, mchookem said:
YES
Lee pulls federal land sales from megabill
Sen. Mike Lee’s decision to withdraw his proposal removes a major headache for GOP leadership in both chambers as they look to advance their megabill.
🤞may this be the shortest thread in the CR.
also...did the pressure actually work?? cuz it seems like the pressure worked.
YES, the pressure actually worked. I am very much relieved and energized this morning to read this after going to bed last night fearing the worst!
And you know what? This bill isn't done yet. It now goes back to the House where they'll need to iron out the differences. For starters, the House bill cut $800B from Medicaid. The Senate version cuts $1 trillion AND MAKES CUTS TO MEDICARE. Yes, Medicare. For old people. Retirees. What that means is that some chickenshit GOP reps who were counting on the Senate being the sane ones and watering this thing down somewhat, as is usually the case, now need to start feeling the heat from their constituents. This is probably not something they are normally used to, as this third rail of American politics has never been touched.
People need to get on the fucking phone and call their reps. Call their Senators too. If nothing else, make their staffers walk into work Monday morning with hundreds of messages on voicemail.
(202) 224-3121 gets to the congressional switchboard. They will connect you directly with your rep's or senator's office if you don't want to find the number directly.
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Do I get to start the James Talarico thread?
in Cloak Room
Posted
Fuck you all. I tossed Jimmy $50 and I’ll be door-knocking this time next year, just like I did back in ‘18.