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berlinerbaer

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Posts posted by berlinerbaer

  1. 1 hour ago, We’reTexas said:

    I wasn’t referring to the social divide, but rather the dynamic of Bay Area over-representation in statewide offices due to lower voter participation in Southern California. I didn’t mean to overstate it, but it’s nice, particularly when folks from the SF machine are in office. There’s a reason HCD directed its first probe at SF. Hell, Newsom killed SF’s $1.7M public toilet. I’ve always taken DiFi’s influence for granted, just think it’ll be interesting how that void is filled. 

    Gotcha. The Bay Area is also more liberal than anywhere in So Cal so it would make sense they would have a deep Democratic bench.

    Out of curiosity, do you have any critiques of Padilla so far, or of his career at the state level?

  2. 11 minutes ago, We’reTexas said:

    The regions are just two very distinct political machines and it’s nice to have regional representation. For example, housing is an issue for all of California but IMO SoCal doesn’t take it seriously as the Bay does; it’s been super helpful to have Gavin Newsom get directly involved in SF housing battles and we wouldn’t have that progress if, say, Garcetti were governor. Likewise, it was helpful for LA to have Padilla throw his weight around to help resolve the Nury Martinez & co. debacle. DiFi didn’t give a shit. 

    I am a California native aware of the NorCal/SoCal social divide and I think this is a little nutso.

  3. 8 minutes ago, 'stache said:

    I’d Oklahoma republicans do what they say they will to public education I’m gone. And not back to Texas like I always thought. I love my people but I can’t let my children be treated like this by the supermajority of people were surrounded by. Not sure where but I’m out. 

    I mean, anywhere really

  4. On 4/18/2022 at 8:00 PM, ztejas said:

    I don't think there is one. I was going to start one at one point. 

    I played 6 for a bit but like 5 better. 6 just felt too bloated to me. Felt like there was too much shit to keep track of every turn. 

    I've been playing Civ 6 now for about a month and I agree. I feel like 5 was the best balance between depth and simplicity of the entire series, a significant upgrade from the complexity of Civ 4. Now it feels like they went overboard again. 

    I will say that I love the diplomatic options, which is the branch of gameplay that I think I have the best handle on at this point. 

  5. 15 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    The Harvard poll recently showed them showing up in 2018 numbers and voting for Dems by a 2-1 margin

    A firm is tracking the voting preferences in Michigan and something like 70-80% of the youth vote is planning to vote on Election Day there.  Hoping they actually turn out that day to counterbalance the republicans who vote on Election Day

    Goddamn young people dicking around as always

  6. 2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

    Good follow, and it’s the vote, not a beach or waxing report

    https://twitter.com/BrazilianReport

    Even though there’s been some shenanigans going on, for the most part, it doesn’t seem like there’s too much unrest.  Vote is almost finished counting

     

    USA: our elections are decided by razor thin margins!

    Brazil: Segure minha cerveja!

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  7. 2 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

    So what has changed from now until August? Inflation is the same as it was? Yet the forecasts for the Senate have turned from strongly in Dem's favor to a tossup?

    Fetterman's debate I think is significant. But Herschel Walker is in better standing now than two months ago? Makes. Zero. Sense.

    Sure one side is election deniers and takes away rights, but inflation is high.

    PA over the summer was at 48 - 38 D with 15+ undecided. Now its more like 48 - 45 D with less than 10% undecided.

    Dems aren't getting hurt as much as Republican leaners are finally coming around to accepting their guy. That makes for a coin flip in the purple states and probably a close loss in the redder places like OH and NC, where it may have appeared that the Dem was doing well.

    It also suggests that the Dem strategy of promoting shit GOP candidates was working. Was being the key word. 

    I'm cautiously optimistic with Fetterman because he is still above 50% in some recent polls. It's when both candidates are knotted up in the mid 40s when we are at the whim of late-breaking infrequent voters.

  8. 9 hours ago, Js1 said:

    Marquette has Johnson up 6 now. Wisconsin is officially a huge problem 

    Tammy Baldwin in one hand, Ron Johnson in the other.

    What a weird state. Such a dichotomy will only be trumped by Ohio if Vance wins.

  9. 48 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

    Wonder where the Saudis fall on this.  On the one hand, they’d love for the Shiites to be taken down quite a few notches, both from a religious perspective, but also if Iran’s leadership changed, it might dial back the Shiite influence/support in certain countries (not just Yemen), which would benefit the Saudis/Sunnis.

    On the other hand, this should scare the shit out of the Saudi leadership (as well as a few other hardline countries in the region) if the young people pull it off and they move towards a more secular society.

    A democratic Iran, or any regime less hostile to the rest of the world, is an existential threat to the Saudis and most other ME countries. They will attempt to muck any transition up, or at least weaken any alternative nascent Iranian government as best they can. They do not want sanctions lifted and the global market flooded with Iranian oil, not when they have the world by the balls after Russia's screwup.

    The US needs to be ready to play diplomatic hardball with our so-called allies in the region who may have self-serving motives, but we need to show restraint. We have been terrible at picking winners and losers with regards to Iran since the 1950s. We should not get directly involved, but we have the authority to ensure other countries in the region keep their distance as well.

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  10. 1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

    I mean.....when you've lost MONGOLIA in the PR war.

    Actually, let's get a coupla those fuckers signed up for the foreign legion, bringing mounted hell with them:

    d8fe11fb609dda93e7dd10076de38d9d.jpg

    Wanna see some rooskies piss out pure vodka?  That's how you do it.

     

    As a sparsely populated democracy stuck between two hegemonic dictatorships, that is as close to spewing hot fire as Mongolia will get.

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  11. On 9/21/2022 at 2:26 PM, Js1 said:

    Okay, first off, I never said otherwise.

    If Dems are winning R+6 seats on Election Night, the environment was entirely wrong in polling and the Dems kept the House.

    We will actually have a fairly decent idea early in the night, depending on how quickly races like NH-01/02 get called, of what the environment is.   

    • NH-01 is EVEN and NH-02 is D+2.  A quick Dem call would mean a pretty good night.  A quick GOP call would be a pretty bad night.  

    Same with races like CT-02 and CT-05 (D+3) and the open RI-02 (D+4)

    Don't forget - 2018 looked abysmal for the Dems on Election Night because of the red mirage before mail-in ballot states finished counted.  Something like 4 CA races flipped when all the votes were counted in the end.  Dems also thought they lost the AZ-Sen seat that night, but Sinema prevailed after the mail-in ballots were counted.  We will see this in CA, PA, OR, OH, AZ and NY is notoriously slow to count as well. 

    We all remember 2020 as well - Trump was bigly winning on election night in PA, WI and Michigan until everything was counted.

     

    6 hours ago, Js1 said:

    This is R+3.  Another "slam dunk" district getting triaged. 

    Quick question... where are you getting these numbers? I'm assuming they account for redistricting.

    I'm asking because 538, which puts the Dems odds of keeping the House at 30%, has NH-01 and NH-02 at 76% and 95% odds of going Dem, respectively. Those don't seem like even seats to me.

     

  12. On 9/1/2022 at 3:00 PM, Superhero said:

    This thread got off track pretty quickly.

     

    Just to give the OP some context, the drone flew over Kinmen, which a whole LOT closer to China than to Taiwan.

    image.thumb.png.1e47a2ea14eafef5c142c17916c66e75.png

     

    It's astounding to me that Taiwan still has territory so close to the mainland. If China was even remotely capable of taking Taiwan, those islands would have been conquered long ago.

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