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berlinerbaer

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Posts posted by berlinerbaer

  1. 11 hours ago, Zonahorn said:

    That's what's up. 

     

    What does this mean? What kind of pressure does the state party really have over her? I imagine the DSSC will still control fundraising, and they will likely endorse her over any challengers. 

  2. More like illegals in the Valley. From 538...

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    In his three statewide races, Newsom has never won Fresno County, but with 59 percent of the estimated vote in, the recall there is failing by 7 percentage points.

     

  3. 1 minute ago, Js1 said:

    Both the CA House and Senate chairs of the respective committees will start on legislation tomorrow, as tweeted by one of them 

    Cool, but if I'm not mistaken, a ballot measure amends the state constitution which is a more permanent solution than legislation.

    • Hook 'Em 2
  4. The recall gained some real traction once Delta started getting out of hand. So far, exit polls show really good news for Newsom on that front.

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    For instance, only three in 10 California voters said his pandemic control measures were too strict, and 69 percent supported the state’s mask mandates for students.

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    More than two-thirds of recall voters feel like the state’s coronavirus situation is getting better or staying the same. And in addition to the 69 percent support for the school mask mandate, 63 percent say they see getting vaccinated as more of a public-health responsibility than a personal choice.

    Also of note: COVID-19 ranks as the No. 1 issue on voters’ minds — ahead of homelessness, wildfires, crime and the economy.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/california-recall-election-newsom/

    • Like 1
  5. 5 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

    Technology for sure. And it was fragmented by lots of internal components. But I just wonder what if the Malian Empire had remained. If the Brits had not crushed the Sokoto Jihad in West Africa. 

    One fear going on within the Africa watchers I talk to is the massive potential for tribal fragmentation we are seeing in certain areas to become the defacto split in nations. Tigray's rebellion which is causing a massive humanitarian disaster and threatens to break up Ethiopia, certain tribes straight out joining insurgencies (and extremist islamic groups), the shit show in Mozambique last year, is going to spread. A few months ago the President of Nigeria gave a twitter smack down to separatists in Biafra. For the non-history buffs that was a horrible event. 

    Maybe it is time Africa redraw its maps. The impact of the Congress of Berlin cannot be overlooked. 

    I loved my classes with Toyin Falola. Used to go to his office hours and sip a scotch with him and just listen. Dude knew West Africa. 

    Some of this is a hangover from European colonization. I think the Belgian colonizers, for example, played the Hutus and Tutsis off each other in Rwanda in order to keep them weak. The two tribes formerly didn't have much beef and it could be argued that they weren't really separate ethnic groups at all.

    I can't imagine a tiny country like Rwanda splitting apart into its constituent ethnic enclaves. In any case, Rwanda has really turned things around in the last 25 years, for the better.

  6. 34 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

    How do you think that the questions feed into score that dimension.  Seems like a lot of them were loading around genetic manipulation. Those questions stood out as some of the worst. The ones that would seem to load on theocracy/secularism a close second. 

    I came off as slightly primitivist as well. I'm not saying that's wrong, but it is interesting considering I am a scientist by profession.

    The question that I got most hung up on was the one that asked if I thought that normal people can be trusted to vote. I went with "Agree" but hesitated because I thought I should consider the current political climate rather than what I thought is generally true.

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  7. It was fucking hot last week and it's fucking hot today. Not surprised that Bruin fans are staying away. There is zero shade in that place.

    There should be quite a few UCLA late arrivals this evening. It should look decent on TV by the 2nd half.

  8. 1 hour ago, Js1 said:

    D+3 in 2020 still kept the House with the Dems after a decade of shitty maps.  TBD on what kind of environment is needed with much better maps 

    The maps in 2022 will be much better than they were in 2012, yes, but will they be better than in 2020? 

  9. I'm a huge math and geography fan too, fellas, but I don't think that is going to spell trouble for Democrats in 2022. My interest is instead on the polls, which look increasingly "midterm-like" for the Democrats.

    If the generic ballot is neutral or even D+2 or so, then the fairest maps in the world will still hand the GOP the House next cycle.

  10. 2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    Not getting it back for 14 years? That’s so doubtful. 

    Unified government is rare. The Rs had it from 2003-2007 only because 9/11 fallout made the 2002 midterm atypically good for the party in the WH. That was the first time either party had it for more than two years since 1981. Before that, you need to go back to the 60s. So every 20 years or so is the norm, not every decade like we've become accustomed.

    The Dems need to take advantage of the next 15 months or FAAFO.

  11. 2 hours ago, phdhorn said:

    Yes, but my point in the article is that al-Rahman, a hardliner, might be willing to look the other way even briefly while ISIS carries out attacks, which they've been doing anyway for years in Afghanistan, despite their opposition to the Taliban, and especially if they're not aimed at the Taliban,Which they wouldn't be.

    In the 2015 ISI Taliban war, many fighting on the isis side were excaliban who didn't like their warlord. So allegiances are not exactly clear.

    All bets are off in that hellhole right now.

    Allegiances in Afghanistan are remarkably fluid and have been so at least since the Soviet War. We didn't seem to take this much into account over the course of our 20 year war.

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/08/16/afghanistan-history-taliban-collapse-504977

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    The central feature of the past several weeks in Afghanistan has not been fighting. It has been negotiations between the Taliban and Afghan forces, sometimes brokered by local elders. On Sunday, the Washington Post reported “a breathtaking series of negotiated surrenders by government forces” that resulted from more than a year of deal-making between the Taliban and rural leaders.

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    Thus, as in medieval Europe, Afghanistan has a tradition to which the Taliban have adhered closely — and which helps explain the speed of their success. The Taliban will summon an enemy garrison to surrender, either at once or after the first assaults. If it does so, the men can either join the besiegers or return home with their personal weapons. To kill them would be seen as shameful. On the other hand, a garrison that fought it out could expect no quarter, a very strong incentive to surrender in good time.

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    Afghan society has been described to me as a “permanent conversation.” Alliances shift, and people, families and tribes make rational calculations based on the risk they face. This is not to suggest that Afghans who made such decisions are to blame for doing what they felt to be in their self-interest. The point is that America’s commanders and officials either completely failed to understand these aspects of Afghan reality or failed to report them honestly to U.S. administrations, Congress and the general public.

     

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  12. 3 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

    Glad I was able to get my two out when we could. But the concern about the families is a big deal right now 

    Probably a dumb question that has been answered already, but how can the Taliban identify people who supported us? Is there some kind of national registry of interpreters? Are they flying American flags in their front yard? Are people getting doxed on social media? Do they just assume that people who left the country did to avoid capture and then go after their families? Is there an accurate census of where people are living and is there information therein about their occupation or past work history?

    I did read that State and the DoD have been scrubbing names and photos the past several days from websites and online registries to protect these people, so I'm sure that's a clue. I'd think that many of the people who cooperated during the occupation should be able to hide away. 

    https://thehill.com/policy/international/568252-us-agencies-purge-websites-of-content-that-could-endanger-afghans

    • Hook 'Em 1
  13. My son's kindergarten class has had two confirmed cases since school started last Wednesday. Yesterday, we got a call from the nurse that he is a close contact with the second case, which happened on Monday. He will be getting tested Saturday. We thought about pulling him but it sounds like other parents are doing that so his class is down to about 60% capacity, which seems safer. With remote learning starting next week, we should expect smaller class sizes going forward. He is a pro at mask wearing, which helps us feel a lot better. Daughter is one of only 4 kids in her daycare class. I'm not concerned about her.

    We are supposed to go to a cousin's wedding in Wisconsin next week. If the test comes back negative and there are no more close contacts until then, we've decided to make the trip. Getting the hell out of Texas is my main rationale.

    What is the best way to test a five year-old? My wife and I want to take the rapid test that's now available before the trip. Anyone have experience with those?

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