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berlinerbaer

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Posts posted by berlinerbaer

  1. A political position that singlehandedly sets the House agenda, determines when votes can occur, and staffs committees - the second most powerful position in US politics - is prone to backroom deals and special interest. Who knew?

    Pelosi is no worse than Paul Ryan or John Boehner were. The role essentially requires a giant sign hovering overhead with an arrow pointing down below big red letters saying "I like favors, and stock. Or cash will do."

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  2. 5 hours ago, F250 said:

    Agree. This thread is more of a monument to upper middle class privilege than anything else.

    We get to talk about all of the countries we have visited for college, vacation and work while agreeing dropping a half a million dollars to move to another country is a good deal.

    Peak shitlib.

    So much this. Disturbing that some of you would rather move to Belize or somewhere else to be utterly surrounded by poverty.

    If you look white, are older, male, and in the top 10% economically, America is and always will be structurally built to support you regardless of the status of democracy or how hot it is. 

     

    6 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

    Curious about these natural advantages 

    Big oceans on both sides to keep the meanies out. A still-growing population that can support the elderly.

    Think about it. Europe may seem nice, but they are dependent on the outside for energy (Russia and ME), protection (US), and food. When there are global shocks, they always feel it more. I would rather have internal challenges to deal with than be under the thumb of a foreign power or have to worry about asshole neighbors.

    Besides, if America goes to shit, all the benefits of being American will go with it. Your dollars won't be worth that much anymore.

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  3. 12 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

    The main problem with this theory is similar to theories about how the U.S. invaded Iraq for its oil.  The old saw about catching more flies with honey than vinegar applies.  If Russia’s primary interest here was to keep itself secure as Europe’s leading energy provider, tools such as corrupt networks in Ukraine and other forms of economic coercion would have been more successful and far cheaper. Russian firms could have easily been in place to control the development of these resources and integrate them into Russian energy networks. 
     

    Russian aims are not economic in nature, as evidenced by the fact that Putin embarked on an economically ruinous war that destroyed his biggest EU energy project— a scenario that was utterly predictable.  Unavoidable, even.  We need to look elsewhere for Russian motivation. 

    I think the economic arguments hold water considering coercion was working out just fine for Putin until his buddy in Kiev got the boot in 2014's uprising. One of the things Yanukovich was doing until then, IIRC, was putting development of the country's O&G infrastructure on ice.

  4. 53 minutes ago, Chopper said:

    Very fascinating article. The author is one of China's top foreign policy thinkers. Very prominent. He argues that Putin has inadvertently united the West, plus Japan, Australia, NZ and Taiwan, and boosted democracy. Really interesting - he argues that that China has a week or 2 to decide which side its future will be better with  -- democracies or the authoritarian side of the world. He argues that China is the only country in the world that can (and should) convince Putin to end the war.

    From the outside, it may look like China is distancing itself from Russia and choosing the West. Domestically, their media is parroting Russian propaganda, including the latest round of garbage about bioweapons. I don't know which way they've shifted over the last 3 weeks.

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  5. 8 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

    The Chinese disposition was always a poor match for communism. They are hyper capitalists at heart. That's just the culture. Hell, my grandmother would haggle with McDonald's worker at the mall to get a 10 cent discount on a hamburger. 

     

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  6. 49 minutes ago, The Ace of Aces said:

    I haven’t posted much about Putin himself so this is as god as time as any. 

    Vladimir Putin is no mastermind. He is clever and had great political instincts (until recently) but he’s not very smart. He does not think things through. He gets an idea, acts on it, and then figured out later how to manage the situation he created. His KGB training didn’t allow for thinking things through and the fact he was plucked out to be a leader was a little luck and a lot of happenstance and nothing really to do with his mindset.

    I know quite a few who have had to deal with him/his admin directly. They all say he’s not all that bright. 

    Wasn't there a State Department cable put out by Wikileaks that suggested after psych evaluation that Putin might have Asperger's? That would explain the very high competence in many areas and deficiencies elsewhere.

    It was the Pentagon, actually.

    Quote

    Both reports, the 2008 study of Putin and a 2011 analysis of Putin and then-President Dimitry Medvedev, cite Putin's physical difficulties as shaping his decision making and behavior. "His primary form of compensation is extreme control," which "is reflected in his decision style and how he governs," the report said.

    Military analysts first noticed Putin's movement patterns on Jan. 1, 2000, "in the first television footage ever seen of the then, newly appointed president of Russia," wrote Connors, who has been studying movement patterns for the Pentagon since 1996.

    Quote

    Medvedev, she wrote, is an "Action Man," who "is inclined to size up situations quickly and to do so in black and white terms, shunning subtler shades of gray."

    Putin, on the other hand, "has very different predilections," and "methodically cycles back to aspects of the problem facing him, continuing revising data to verify his research and confirm his priorities," the report said.

    U.S. officials should present "the information-craving" Putin with "meaty policy research and white papers," Connors recommended. "Putin the private decision maker cannot be expected to enter into public exchanges with others on information interpretation or a final course of action."

     

  7. 9 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

    There’s a difference with this resistance and what was shown in Afghanistan and Iraq. Both of those were failures in occupation, which is a different sort of hurdle. 
     

    Not to mention they were projections of power halfway around the world. What we’re seeing in Ukraine from a logistics and competency perspective is the equivalent of the US military not being able to make advances after invading Mexico, right across the American border, while invading with built up forces from 3 sides in the north and south, plus making an amphibious landing. 
     

    This has just looked like a colossal logistics fuck up, not to mention a bewildering demonstration of a lack of air power, and a damnation of general troop training and support. 

    I agree. There is too much military competence spread around the world to make invasions successful. Only if the focus is narrow, which it certainly wasn't for us in Iraq and Afghanistan. By the looks of it the Russians bit of more than they could chew as well.

  8. 1 hour ago, Auto Driller said:

    China taking a big L on this one too. In addition to looking like a bunch of jackasses for having tacitly supported Russia in the lead up to the invasion, the world has now clearly seen that a smaller country can effectively resist a full scale invasion from a “super power”. Taiwan suddenly isn’t looking so vulnerable.

    Agree, but this is the second time the world has seen effective resistance against a superpower just in the last year.

  9. 12 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

    Show me where I said hydroxy and horse paste?  For one, it's hilarious that idiots were buying shit from Tractor Supply, but it's equally hilarious that fucktards like you don't acknowledget that Ivermectin has a 'for human use' version that's been used to treat other viruses for nearly a century.  India's case counts dropped precipitously after they started handing out packets with Ivermectin, Vitamin D, azythromicin and such.  I'm not saying I trust India's numbers per se, buy India does produce most of the medicines that we use in the US.  I'm also not saying that Ivermectin works, I wouldn't know, but some things together seemed to have worked for a lot of people, and that is 100% a fact.  Not to mention that Pfizer's new pill that will be hitting the markets fairly shortly is hilariously close in chemical composition to Ivermectin.  

    Not sure where you saw this, but it's plausible this combo was a winner in India as it could be in other developing countries, but not by directly treating Covid. It also would have much less success in this country due to overall greater health.

    Lots of people in India and elsewhere without proper sanitation have parasitic diseases. Worms cause all sorts of systemic havoc and can inhabit the body long-term by suppressing the immune system. Worms plus any viral illness is a really bad combination. To treat Covid it would make lots of sense to first get rid of the worms. Hence Ivermectin.

    I could see a broad spectrum antibiotic like azithromycin being useful for similar reasons. Even things like tooth abscesses are comorbidities that should be treated to increase the survival rates of Covid patients. Doctors shouldn't just be throwing around antibiotics, but last spring was an extraordinary circumstance, so why not? Worry about resistant germs later.

    Not sure about vitamin D but much of the world is chronically deficient so it can't hurt.

    tl;dr Throw that cocktail at your random developing world resident and watch their survivability skyrocket.

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  10. Random immunology questions... Can someone explain why people are fretting so much about antibody levels when the B cells responsible for making them last the rest of your life? Is the concern that low initial levels during infection would allow the virus to gain a foothold before antibody levels rebound? Can the virus suppress antibody production?

  11. 5 hours ago, Zhorn96 said:

    Wtf… multiple reports emerging that Wilcox turned Oregon down after interviewing and being offered the job.  Someone look in the sky for flying pigs cause I know the world is crazy now

    My first guess would be that they tried to lowball him and he said no, but this is Oregon. Duck fans would flip if they found out the school wanted to go with a B coach to save a few mil a year.

    More likely is that Oregon wanted some concessions from him, like who to bring on as assistants, who to recruit and how, the exact technique in kissing Phil Knights' ass, etc. Lots of pressure in Eugene, and Wilcox heard Duck fans booing when Cal almost pushed that game back in October into overtime.

    In the pigs fly department, there are vague suggestions filtering down from the insider boards that Wilcox actually got concessions out of Cal. Not just an extension for himself but some sort of lasting commitment to the program, maybe a relaxing of the admissions requirements now that the team leads the conference in APR and maybe something pertaining the grad school and the portal. 

  12. Oregon has chosen to prioritize recruiting over all else, essentially doubling down on the Cristobal strategy. Time will tell if Lanning is a better coach than Cristobal.

    It's odd because the high water mark at Oregon was with Chip and Helfrich, guys really good at the Xs and Os. It worked because the program basically attracts top talent regardless of who is running things.

    The OC hire is critical. 

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  13. On 11/23/2021 at 2:47 PM, Ojo Rojo said:

    Most.  Not all.

    I envision it sort of like the scene in Lord of the Flies where Jack's tribe sees the naval officer and realizes what they've been doing is crazy.

    An then the naval officer turns back to look at his warship.

  14. 10 hours ago, Sbbruin said:

    Wilcox can recruit.  Chip can't.  Or doesn't like to.  And recruiting is the lifeblood of Oregon. And any school really.  If Chip goes, we need a relentless recruiter to go toe-to-toe with Lincoln.

    Wilcox is sucking shit through a straw at Cal, admittedly a recruiter's nightmare. Chip kicked ass at Oregon, a school that recruits itself.

    I can't tell who really is the better recruiter but it doesn't matter. If down to those two, Oregon is going to go with what worked before.

  15. 4 hours ago, Uncle Nate said:

    Tech hiring Tim Deruyter to be the new Defensive Coordinator.

    I think this is a great hire for us.  Time to try a real attacking defense on the South Plains and rid ourselves of the bend-until-you-break styles we've been using for the past 20+ years.

    In his first year at Cal he took a unit long neglected by Sonny Dykes and made them dominant. The defense is still decent now that he's been gone a couple of years but the change is noticeable.

    Good hire. Hopefully now you have a HC who won't let the offense go to shit.

  16. 1 hour ago, SDG said:

    Cals fully vaccinated so what's the issue?  

    Cal is the issue. Cal and the City of Berkeley.

    The City insisted on testing the entire team after a few players tested positive before Cal played Arizona. That revealed many positive but asymptomatic cases. The University then forced those players into isolation for a period of time, despite some of them subsequently testing negative. I'm not sure if the overreach was team-wide testing, the isolation period, or both.

     

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