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berlinerbaer

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Posts posted by berlinerbaer

  1. 8 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

    Yeah, I mean, there's a time issue involved, isn't there?

    So long as Trump is the head of the party, the Never Trumpers are staying Democrats irrespective of any policy issues.  And I think Trump is going to remain the head of the party as long as he's alive.  And that's probably until about 2028.

    After that, then results do matter.  I mean, eventually the South abandoned the Democratic Party.  But that takes time.  And for it to happen with the South/Democrats, it took something really dramatic.

    Same thing here.

     

    No way. Trump is phony bravado. Trump is all image and shitty branding. Trump is plausible deniability up until an unequivocal result like a electoral train-spanking makes the long-running con job unsustainable. Trump is badly damaged following a close loss. He is utterly destroyed in the event of an increasingly possible Biden landslide. Irrespective of whether he'll face legal trouble as an ex-president, he won't find nearly enough of an outlet to sustain his cult of personality, even if he can keep the illusion alive.

    He spends 100% of his time catering to his dumbass base because he knows how fickle they are. They'll keep eating up the must-see TV until they don't like what they're watching, and a trouncing in November won't be much fun for them, no matter how he tries to spin it. I don't think the rest of the GOP is going to hold sway over these people, so many will drift back into the political shadows from where they came. The GOP will attempt to woo back the Never-Trumpers out of electoral necessity. These people want to win above all else.

    • Like 1
  2. 27 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

    So about Colorado...

    It went from reliably red to deep blue and never going back due innlarge part, I get the sense, from Californians moving there (ditto Nevada). 

    I don’t follow Gardner at all, but isn’t he pretty decent as a Senator?  I mean, ignore the politics but focus on no scandal, doesn’t seem like an idiot, didn’t win his seat because the other guy he ran against was a legitimate rape candidate or a witch or anything like that. Just boring honkie from central casting, right?

    if so that makes the 20 point deficit unbelievable. I know hickenlooper is fairly popular, but damn, that’s California/Massachusetts territory. Amazing that it’s that blue. 

    This election is going to be even more of a buttfucking than I thought, and I was expecting a massive buttfucking. 

     

    Eta- when I say unbelievable I don’t mean that I think the poll is incorrect- I mean- wow that’s amazingly bad. That’s some major creep inland from the coasts.

    also- if he’s in some way odious let me know- as I said it’s not like I’m following him, that’s my sense but if he had some scandal or gaffe I’m not hand waving it I’m merely unaware of it. 

    His problem is that he is a Republican senator in, as you say, a BLUE state. His most important bills would likely get support from most Democrats, meaning they are non-starters for Republican senate leadership. He has tried to shift left on some issues but has little chance to influence the GOP agenda, and GOP leadership has hung him out to dry in the center.

    The fact that voting Gardner out is pretty much a prerequisite for a change in control of the chamber is not lost on Colorado voters. As the most vulnerable Republican senator, I'd expect the people to know that if he wins, the Senate stays in Republican hands and all he ends up being is a rubber stamp for Trump and McConnell's agenda, no matter how well-meaning he may be. 

    Basically, I agree with you that this is a referendum on Trump and the GOP more so than on any sitting senator.

    Here's a good article on his marijuana legislation that McConnel probably lost somewhere underneath the pile of passed House bills he's refusing to take up and how it adversely affects his potential support from the pot industry.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/23/cory-gardners-marijuana-problem-275029

    • Like 1
  3. On 5/26/2020 at 10:26 AM, BigHorn'13 said:

    Distraction! 

    /Democrats

    This administration is unwilling and unable to adequately deal with China aside from making obscene noises meant to sound like words. Ivanka doesn't want her trademarks taken away.

    Without a change in leadership, a distraction is all China can be.

  4. As much as people say that a running mate doesn't matter, I think Demings is an exception. A 2% bump for Biden in Florida, which is totally reasonable, along with an extra few thousand votes spread across the battleground states with sizable black populations (MI, NC, PA) would all but seal the win.

    She's my pick for the ticket.

    • Like 2
  5. 35 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

    it gets one layer sicker: potus retweeted that earlier today

    Savvy politicians know to shut the fuck up and let their opponent's mistakes come back to bite them. Retweeting this is basically giving Biden a get-out-of-jail-free card following his latest "ain't black" gaffe.

    There must be a top-level member of Trump's campaign staff who read that retweet and said to himself "this fuckin' guy".

     

     

     

  6. 4 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

    I'm pretty sure it's online now but I regret throwing away my copy of that book. 

     

    4 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

    Are you 15 years old?

    I legitimately LOLed reading your two posts back-to-back.

    And it just so happened to be one of the first documents to be put online, but I can't remember exactly. I was only 15 yo.

  7. 39 minutes ago, kevwun said:

    I don't care about understanding the thought process that leads to voting against Flint, Michigan and Hurricane Harvey Relief bills.  The end result is all that matters in cases like that.

    This.

    Amash, or any other libertarian in the White House right now would be a disaster in the midst of this pandemic.

    Everyone loves a libertarian when the times are good, like when there is no real need for centralized leadership and action. A nation-wide state of emergency should doom any L candidate due to common sense, but we'll see what America wants.

    16 minutes ago, Anastasis said:


    He was one of the only republicans to oppose Kavanaugh's appointment. 

    I'm sure he talked a good game, but there was plenty of other brow furrowing to go around. Some of those people were Senators who had to actually vote on the matter.

  8. 17 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

    It will hurt Biden A LOT in Michigan.

    w/out Amash: Biden +12
    w/ Amash: Biden +6

    Obviously Michigan is where Amash will have the biggest pull right now, but once this thing gets rolling and he starts doing national TV and the third party machinery (distributed as it is) unites around him, he can be very easily sold nationally.

    People need to be talking to their friends and family about the threat this guy poses with regard to getting Trump a second term. 

     

    I agree with you completely since I am a nervous Democratic voter who still sweats over polls showing Biden ahead of Trump by 10 points in Arizona.

    OTOH My brain sees your numbers and thinks if Amash only takes 6 away from Biden in Michigan, his strongest state, then it's much ado about nothing. My brain also tells me that third parties are overrated and have been since Perot, and that third parties have only ever negatively impacted incumbent parties. 

    I expect nearly all Dem voters and indies who hate Trump will take an Amash run seriously and not be swayed. All it will take is a couple of polls in MI and PA to keep eyes on the ball.

    I do worry about the right-leaners who don't give a shit but don't want the shame in voting for him. I worry because a Biden squeaker sends the country a much different message than a Biden landslide and that message isn't a good one. No, I wouldn't mind if he went away quietly.

  9. 30 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

    Trunp will lose something on the order of 54-46 or thereabouts, will lose Texas, and the electoral college will be a rout. The media will never tell you that because they need the horse race for ratings but that is what will happen. 

    Trump and the republicans will never get over the fact that they called this thing a hoax.Normal people will remember that. And the ultra right wingers will continue to do so. They will continue to do that and they are therefore done.

    All the republican bullshit in the world will not change that. They are done. Their party is done. And just like William Hardin and Hoover in the 30’s, the republicans are once again done for a generation. Maybe 50 years from now people will once again forget. 

    May they rot in hell which is more than they deserve. 

    spacer.png

  10. 4 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

    i actually have a follow-up question that anybody can answer.

    which number is bigger:

    1) trump -> biden

    2) hillary -> trump

    and for extra credit, which number is bigger:

    1) no vote/3rd party -> biden

    2) no vote/3rd party -> trump

    1) and 1) of course...

    But the only number that matters is Hillary -> Biden. Everyone who voted for Hillary needs to (be able to) vote for Biden. 

    Voter suppression efforts need to at least be held at bay. Dems will turn out IF they are allowed. 

  11. 4 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

    Thread on people taking Trump’s “liberate” tweets exactly how he meant them -

     

     

    When I worry that these protests may gain steam and be perceived as legitimate political movements by significant numbers of the American public, I just look at what these idiots look like. When you look like you followed up a trip to the MAGA rally with a round of target practice with Cliven Bundy, I don't think your protests are going to hurt Whitmer's approval rating let alone be taken seriously by the majority of Americans.

    At least the Tea Party dressed to impress a bit more back in 2009.

  12. On 4/14/2020 at 6:35 PM, Calihorn said:

    I couldn't tell you why the GOP in this state picked her. I've heard they didn't have better options (with her primary opponents being chemtrails Kelli and Sherrif Joe) or that McConnell really like McSally. Whatever it was, it was poor decision making.

    Arizona Republicans are having a hard time recruiting candidates for statewide office. McSally is still better than any alternatives, even with the L against Sinema.

    I'd keep an eye on the governor, Ducey. He's by far the most viable R candidate for a future senate bid. Unfortunately for him, he will likely have to run against a Dem incumbent.

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