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berlinerbaer

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Posts posted by berlinerbaer

  1. 16 hours ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

    I am not convinced it would turn out that way. Down ballot, wouldn't that be where the GOPs grassroots cult candidates would really start to gain ground? That is not great because once someone is an incumbent, I think they are harder to dislodge aren't they?

    Just have mixed views on how this would work. I know some of the data you and others have posted regarding numbers and the youth vote is promising. However, this is going to be a very suspense filled midterm.

    This. Assumptions that a splintering of the Republican party will turn out well for Dems are misguided and dangerous.

    Most of us rightly thought it was a bad idea when Justin Amash floated his third party run for president last summer. Luckily, he eventually figured it out too.

    The surest way to defeat Team A is to join Team B, not to start Team C. People think this will divide the conservative vote into pro and anti-Trump. Instead, it will divide the anti-Trump votes into conservative and liberal.

    The Dems need to make this upcoming election about issues and not another Trump referendum. They cannot link arms with the anti-Trumper Republicans. The Dems need to paint them as people who voted to repeal the ACA, voted against Biden's Covid stimulus and (likely) infrastructure, and whose failed policies set the stage for Trump's rise to power in the first place.

    • Hook 'Em 3
  2. 8 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

    Este.Ā 

    It was high risk, low reward. Ā By staying out of the race, they also avoided creating an early latina vs. black vs. white progressive vs. labor shit fight that would have feed back on their already tender DC coalition.Ā 

    Ā 

    Also: Pelosi has an iron grip on her caucus.Ā 

    I'd buy an argument that the national party didn't want to make this into a race since they knew voter enthusiasm was minimal, although I'd point out that aĀ single tweet from Biden (fuck, where was Beto?) would have sent Sanchez to the runoff. No need to endorse anyone. Just remind people to vote. An extra 1500 blue votes would have done it.

    I'd rather not focus on the national party anyway, as I'm most concerned about Dem voter enthusiasm, or lack thereof. The fact is that the national party wasn't needed to win elections for Democrats during the Trump era. Add to the fact that it's more difficult for the Democratic party to manufacture enthusiasm among its supporters than it is for Republicans, and I'm not convinced things are just going to work themselves out in 2022.

    Ā 

    8 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

    Did you know Democrats wonĀ virtually every house special in 2009 inĀ the run up to 2010? Ā The GOP in 2017 in advance of 2018?Ā 

    Remember when the GOP was putting their nuts on the table after OssoffĀ lost to Karen Handel? Ā Specials this early in a presidency donā€™t mean shit. Ā Now, if the Democrats lose the VA governors race, then they may want to start worrying.

    You can't just look at the win column. Democrats outperformed across the board in 2017,Ā even if they came up short in flipping some deeply red districts left vacant by Trump appointees. Tom Price won GA-6 by 23 points in 2016. Ossoff came short by only 4 points a year later. Kansas, Montana, the VA elections, and of course Alabama Senate. Not all wins, but the trend was obvious.

    2009 was a similar story for the Republicans. They lost close races trying to fill vacancies of Obama appointees, but those races shouldn't have been close on paper. It didn't take long for them to start winning.

    • Like 1
  3. 1 hour ago, Js1 said:
    Ā 

    This race was extremely low-key. Thereā€™s not even GOP gloating this morning. The amount of GAF is/wasĀ zero.Ā 

    Option 2 should have happened. It would have been valuable for party leadership and activists to learn, early on and unequivocally, that their base has a motivation problem. Instead, this election gets swept under the rug, excuses are made, and we don't hear anything until Virginia later this year.

  4. Dems collectivelyĀ beaten in votesĀ by almost 2 to 1. Total turnout only 23% of November numbers, and only 31% of 2018 turnout. So those new Democratic suburban high propensity voters who were supposed to turn outĀ failed to turn out. We have our first data point showing that one of our key assumptions of the post-Trump electoral landscape may be flawed. Either those voters who switched allegiance the last few years aren't dying to head to the polls, or they didn't switch after all.

    Meanwhile, this bullshit was posted on DailyKos yesterday. Idiots.

  5. Jana Lynne Sanchez (the leading Dem) is currently in 3rd place, where she trailsĀ #2, Jake Ellzey,Ā by 366 votes.

    Only 9% of Tarrant county precincts are left to report. Pretending these precincts are identical to the ones that already reported in Tarrant County, there are 4723 votes still left to count. She is pulling 15.7% of the vote there currently while Ellzey is getting 8.1%. Assuming the remainder break the same way, she'll net another 741 votes compared to 382 for Ellzey. This will put her behind Ellzey by 8 votes.

    She needs to hope those final precincts are in populous areas of Fort Worth or the Dems are going to be locked out of the runoff.

  6. Tomorrow's the last day to vote in theĀ Texas 6thĀ special. 24 candidates in all.

    Pubs are beating Dems collectively almost 2 to 1 in fundraising. On each side, the frontrunner in the polls does not lead the party in fundraising.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  7. 4 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

    Yeah, literally the only thing they wanted and didn't get was Obamacare repeal, which they tried to pass through reconciliation and didn't need to worry about the filibuster. The GOP isn't interested in passing legislation that can't pass through reconciliation and the moment they change their mind about that and control the senate they'll repeal the filibuster if it hasn't already been done.

    This, except one minor correction. They knew they never had the votes to repeal Obamacare. They backed themselves into a corner after their shitty tantrums the previous six years and had to pretend to their base they really wanted it. John Boener called this one back in February of 2017 almost exactly as it happened.

    The ONLY thing the GOP wanted to do during the Trump years was give their donors a tax cut. That, and confirm judges.

  8. 4 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

    I view Blount retiring as a good sign. The GOP probably doesnā€™t think they can take the senate back in 2 years and why should they?
    Ā 

    dems will be favored in Pennsylvania. The people thereĀ love fetterman, heā€™s a perfect representative for that state.

    grassley needs to retire. The guy is almost 90.

    Blount committed GOP seppuku by helping plan Biden's inauguration and then speaking at said inauguration.

  9. 4 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

    And every red state will sue the fuck out of the bill and it will be taken to the Supreme Court and they'll overturn it. What am I missing?

    This was my thought as well. My guess is that the new bills were designed with past court rulings in mind. The justices had to state why they ruled the way they did, so the new bills could use that as a legal framework on which to build something more robust.

    Ā 

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  10. 13 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

    Ā 

    I disagree. Trump happened because people listen to Rush.

    I think it's an important distinction. Rush didn't happen in a vacuum and its important to lay the blame where it properly should be laid and that's at the foot of the masses who ever put stock in a single word he said and then voted because they allowed their beliefs to be shaped by him.Ā 


    Ā 

    The notion that politicians and pundits on the Right are at the mercy of their base is a dangerous myth. The masses have been whipped into a frenzy by a steady stream of lies from callous depraved "leaders", like Rush and Trump.Ā 

    These people are treacherous manipulators and we should celebrate every time they get their microphones taken away, by whatever means.

    • Hook 'Em 1
    • Like 1
  11. 3 hours ago, UpperWestside said:

    I think we are going to see a whole bunch of bills passed in short order now that the 2nd impeachment trial is done. It will be nice to see a functioning government that will skip right past the part of said government that wants to derail what President Biden said he would do. Time to really ramp up vaccine production and get the public vaccinated because COVID has taken more than enough of our fellow Americans. Passing the stimulus whether a single member of the death cult votes for it should be right at the top of the list and then pass a comprehensive infrastructure bill so we can get a whole bunch of Americans back to work across the country. There is a lot of other important legislation that needs to be brought into law, but those would be a good start.

    I like your spunkĀ but three bills, the maximum amount of bills that could pass through reconciliation, is a far cry from a "whole bunch of bills".Ā 

    Or do you think the Dems nuke the filibuster?

  12. 36 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

    To be fair to McCarthy (which is more than that quisling deserves), nobody who served in the HouseĀ could ever hope to keep thisĀ House GOP caucus in line. That whole job is about getting the party pulling the same direction on a legislative agenda and they have no legislative agenda to speak of. They donā€™t give two shits about governing. To most of them, the entire job isĀ just about posting and angry tv appearances attacking their enemies.

    My point was that this vote did not have to happen if McCarthy would have dealt with MTG on his own or amongĀ leadership. Instead, he made all his caucus go on record. There are several freshmen Rs in purple districts who have had a rough first month in office, voting wise. I'm talking about the two ladies in CA, the one still undecided in NY, and the one in IA who won by like 10 votes.

    The whole reason Mitch built a pile of Dem House bills up on his desk was to prevent them from coming up for a vote and making his members stick their necks out. One explanation is that Trump told McCarthy to hold the vote in order to find out who the "traitors" are, after flying down to Mar a Lago and slob his knob.

  13. Ron Johnson is not popular. I have to believe he's being advised to retire rather than put that seat at risk. You'd expect dipshit senators in red states like Missouri or Texas (wince), but not inĀ a state that reelected Tammy Baldwin by double digits. And yet there he is, for now.

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