Jump to content

berlinerbaer

Legacy Members
  • Posts

    834
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by berlinerbaer

  1. 50 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

    I had a long cat post that I somehow lost on my iPhone. But yeah- you (or at least the bast majority of progressives) would shit on a plan like that coming from someone like Huckabee or Santorum or hawtley or Trump, and those are the types that would be most likely to suggest something like that because they understand the power of cracking that FDR coalition that ran the country for about 7 decades in the house and that guys like Reagan and W and Trump co-opted a bit with Regan democrats, compassionate conservatism and angry nationalism respectively. 
    I’ve had my money where my mouth is since the day I opened up my first business straight out of law school at 24 years old- everyone I’ve ever managed and employee has been on profit share and been treated like an owner in the organization (profit shares- productivity bonuses- solicitation of ideas for how things could work better/be better) because that’s they best way to incentivize human nature to make it a force for good as opposed to fighting it and getting steamrolled by it. This isn’t out of character for me. 
    It’s just not ever going to happen, nobody is suggesting anything like this, nobody ever will, so the best that can be hoped for is to elect the person likely to do the least amount of harm to the country. 

    Bro, Trump's criminal justice reform bill passed the House and Senate with total Democratic support. The only nays came from Republicans. Trump's CARES Act passed overwhelmingly.

    Dems will give a Republican president a win if it is good legislation. 

    • Hook 'Em 2
  2. 6 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

    Back of the envelope math:

    There are 3.75 million babies born in the US.  Lets say you wanted to set up a scale where every one of them got $1,000 at birth no matter how wealthy the family, but that the poorest got $10,000.00 and the median got $5,000, and the bottom got $1,000.  Blended average of $5,000 per kid lets say. 

    3.5 million times 5 is 17.5 million.  Carry the 3 decimals and that's what- 17.5 billion.  That seems like dick all nothing to the size of our government right now.  If that earned 8% (annualized rate of return in the stock market over the past 50 years is 10.9%) that $10,000 would be worth $80,000 when a kid turned 27 years old according to the law of 72.  So- if you want to go to school you have $40,000 to spend and that's plausible that you could go to a state school, work part time and over the summer, graduate in 4 years and be debt free). Or, better yet you could join the peace corps or get a menial job that will hire an 18 year old, figure out what you want to do as an apprentice in life and be looking forward to $80k cash on the barrel head to help you buy a house or start a business with the skills you've been learning for the last year. Or maybe you've grown up enough to say- I think I need to go to night school b/c this is really what I want to do with my life.  Or trade school.  Or community college.  The possibilities are endless. I'd sure as shit have no complaint if someone laid something like this out with $18 billion a year going to this program.  I would think from a practical standpoint you'd have people crawling out of the woodwork to vote for this.  And hell, if we are really ok with spending trillions then lets look retrospectively at all the kids that haven't reached 18 yet and say- what would this look like if we took 1 trillion the first year for this program and just gave it to every kid equally they'd all get $14,000.00 put into that account.  If you means tested it somewhat and gave more to the kids closer to 18 to put in their account you could probably scratch that one check and make that work for everyone under 18, and spend the low low low amount of $18 billion a year to keep it self sustained.

    Bam, every kid in America now would have a legacy, regardless of what color they are, where they were born etc.  And, I think you'd have widespread popular support for stuff like this. And it would be fair.  And it would improve lives.  

    So- 3 things if we are just giving away money that would make everything better and actually might have a snowballs chance in hell of changing a ton of lives over the course of the years:

    1) Make a payment that's an investment to everyone that's a kid now on a 1 time basis that would net them $40-$100k depending upon if they cashed out for school at 18 or some other investment later in life at 25.  $1 trillion dollar up front cost tag and 18 billion a year

    2) subsidize a mortgage for everyone that needs help for a subsidy.   Use the section 8 money for ownership instead of rent- that gets us already to 5.5 million families.  Say that the government will guarantee every mortgage for a house that's 80% of median value (that would be $216,000 house nationwide).  Everyone who buys a house for 80% of median gets a no money down note at 5% interest.  The government would probably actually make money on this deal!  People don't really default on their house notes- even for the worst of the worst mortgages that were subprime- in the worst of the worst home market the default rate was only like 18%- if you talk about all mortgages nationwide I don't think it ever got higher than like 2 or 3 percent.  What killed the economy in the housing crisis wasn't repo's- it was asshole types on wall street with their crazy fucking exotic schemes to bundle notes, leverage them and sell them.  If the US government ran a market for poor people that need help for this kind of housing and they rant that like George fucking Baylie at the savings and loan- any guarantee on these mortgages in the program would likely be a rounding error. It would cost nothing.

    3) Put all EITC into a portfolio that can be used only for major life events or retirement or something like that.  For all others allow them to use a portion of their social security money to put into this portfolio.  Don't change social security. This isn't a social security program- this is a legacy type program.  Match payments into this account the way that happens with a 401k up to a certain amount based upon income.  Give people that otherwise wouldn't have a chance a chance at that. 

     

    Bam- now everyone that wants to owns a house, every kid has a legacy to go to school with or start a life with and everyone owns something throughout the course of their life.  And it doesn't cost all that much money compared to what we blow all the time. 

    This is just back of the napkin math and off the cuff thoughts as I'm sitting here avoiding work and trying to solve the problems of the world. I'm sure it could be fine tuned and made much better.  But-- and this is important- it would actually improve lives permanently and we could probably get 80% buy in from the population.  But no, we aren't looking for programs on a basis of "will they work and will they affect a meaningful change" b/c we are so fucking short sighted and we'd rather tear each other apart over all sorts of stupid shit.

    This all sounds good to me but candidates have proposed something in this general ball park and nobody's been chomping at the bit to vote for it besides progressives. Andrew Yang comes to mind but so does Joe Biden and the child care payments that have been going out for the past several months after the latest stimulus package. No hypotheticals needed. That's real world stuff you can point to.

    And guess what? Biden's approval is in the gutter. No, not because of the payments, but at least in spite of them.

    It tangentially reminds me of Obamacare and how the Dems got nuked from orbit electorally the following year, except that was a direct cause and effect. But guess what? It's the law of the land. It was an irreversible step in the right direction.

    I like good policy too, way more than I like the teams that come up with them. If we could possibly get election reform as well as some real lasting action on climate change this term (BIG if), I would really take the sting out of the Republicans taking control of Congress and the presidency in 2024.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  3. 23 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

    Well, what did kind of happen is that Democrats did used to rely on a very ignorant portion of the electorate that could be pandered to by promising "stuff."  The proverbial "free shit army."

    Trump co-opted big chunks of the "free shit army" and a whole other very ignorant portion of the electorate, not on the grounds that they would get any free shit (never did anyway), but instead just by demonizing and blaming others for the plight of the free shit army, while continuing to cornhole the free shit army at great depth and speed.

    At least the free shit army tried to vote in their own interest.

    People forget, but Trump did more than pander to the "free shit army".

    He ran a populist campaign. Yeah, that included racism and grievance but he also told everyone he wanted to tax the rich and "drain the swamp". Those are progressive policies. He co-opted the left as much as the right. Politically savvy considering he was running against a centrist. He then took corruption to heights never before seen.

    Not specifically responding to you, just pointing this out.

    • Hook 'Em 2
    • Rage+1 1
  4. So the Dems get blowback because of their fringe who want acceptance of inequality and equal rights but Republicans don't feel any repercussions from theirs, despite theirs basically staging a violent coup last January, trying to kidnap a sitting governor, and drowning in conspiracy and misinformation, among other things?

    Ok

    • Hook 'Em 1
    • Like 2
    • Rage+1 4
  5. 56 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

    What does that even mean? What are you suggesting people do? 

    He is making an argument that is growing among the Right. Climate change denial is becoming unpopular, so the next argument isn't whether it's occurring, or even if we are responsible. The next few decades are instead going to be spent arguing about whether we make all cars electric and go to renewables by 2040 or just surround Florida with a giant seawall. Or if not all of Florida, at least The Villages. 

    The argument is that it will all be a black swan that nobody saw coming, and that all we can do now is hold back the sea and install bigger air conditioners in our F550s, at least for the people who can afford them, while sticking with coal since at least now a whopping 5% of the emissions are successfully being captured.

     

    spacer.png

    • Hook 'Em 1
    • Like 1
    • Rage+1 2
  6. 7 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

    Hearing that oregons map is finalized. Can we get a breakdown of it?

    This dude runs a Youtube channel on electoral commentary and such. Here's his breakdown on Oregon and Texas.

    Oregon analysis starts at 3:50. Texas at 7:43.

     

    • Rage+1 1
  7. Fivethirtyeight up with an informative piece on this map. Basically every representative is in a safer district except Vicente Gonzalez in TX-15, and he's retiring. That seat alone will determine whether Texas is 25-13 or 24-14.

    Can't overlook the effect that uncompetitive House races will have up and down the ballot. This new map will really hurt turnout.

     

     

    Texas new map.png

  8. 11 hours ago, Zonahorn said:

    That's what's up. 

     

    What does this mean? What kind of pressure does the state party really have over her? I imagine the DSSC will still control fundraising, and they will likely endorse her over any challengers. 

  9. More like illegals in the Valley. From 538...

    Quote

    In his three statewide races, Newsom has never won Fresno County, but with 59 percent of the estimated vote in, the recall there is failing by 7 percentage points.

     

  10. 1 minute ago, Js1 said:

    Both the CA House and Senate chairs of the respective committees will start on legislation tomorrow, as tweeted by one of them 

    Cool, but if I'm not mistaken, a ballot measure amends the state constitution which is a more permanent solution than legislation.

    • Hook 'Em 2
  11. The recall gained some real traction once Delta started getting out of hand. So far, exit polls show really good news for Newsom on that front.

    Quote

    For instance, only three in 10 California voters said his pandemic control measures were too strict, and 69 percent supported the state’s mask mandates for students.

    Quote

    More than two-thirds of recall voters feel like the state’s coronavirus situation is getting better or staying the same. And in addition to the 69 percent support for the school mask mandate, 63 percent say they see getting vaccinated as more of a public-health responsibility than a personal choice.

    Also of note: COVID-19 ranks as the No. 1 issue on voters’ minds — ahead of homelessness, wildfires, crime and the economy.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/california-recall-election-newsom/

    • Like 1
  12. 5 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

    Technology for sure. And it was fragmented by lots of internal components. But I just wonder what if the Malian Empire had remained. If the Brits had not crushed the Sokoto Jihad in West Africa. 

    One fear going on within the Africa watchers I talk to is the massive potential for tribal fragmentation we are seeing in certain areas to become the defacto split in nations. Tigray's rebellion which is causing a massive humanitarian disaster and threatens to break up Ethiopia, certain tribes straight out joining insurgencies (and extremist islamic groups), the shit show in Mozambique last year, is going to spread. A few months ago the President of Nigeria gave a twitter smack down to separatists in Biafra. For the non-history buffs that was a horrible event. 

    Maybe it is time Africa redraw its maps. The impact of the Congress of Berlin cannot be overlooked. 

    I loved my classes with Toyin Falola. Used to go to his office hours and sip a scotch with him and just listen. Dude knew West Africa. 

    Some of this is a hangover from European colonization. I think the Belgian colonizers, for example, played the Hutus and Tutsis off each other in Rwanda in order to keep them weak. The two tribes formerly didn't have much beef and it could be argued that they weren't really separate ethnic groups at all.

    I can't imagine a tiny country like Rwanda splitting apart into its constituent ethnic enclaves. In any case, Rwanda has really turned things around in the last 25 years, for the better.

  13. 34 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

    How do you think that the questions feed into score that dimension.  Seems like a lot of them were loading around genetic manipulation. Those questions stood out as some of the worst. The ones that would seem to load on theocracy/secularism a close second. 

    I came off as slightly primitivist as well. I'm not saying that's wrong, but it is interesting considering I am a scientist by profession.

    The question that I got most hung up on was the one that asked if I thought that normal people can be trusted to vote. I went with "Agree" but hesitated because I thought I should consider the current political climate rather than what I thought is generally true.

    • Hook 'Em 1
×
×
  • Create New...