Jump to content

berlinerbaer

Legacy Members
  • Posts

    748
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by berlinerbaer

  1. 5 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

    Republicans like to bitch about our fundraising, but they just don’t understand.

    look at all of the red states. The only states out of them with any significant money are Georgia, Texas, and Florida. All of the other red states are poor.

    blue states have people from places with money.  Washington, California, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Virginia.
     

    It’s just not even close when you compare them.

    I'd be shocked if a majority of the money Republican candidates are playing with this cycle didn't collectively come from the coastal blue states. California is full of rich Republicans who throw gobs of money at the national party because of a lack of any real game in town. I'd imagine every blue state on the East Coast is similar.

    The difference this go-around is that Trump and the GOP have pissed off entire categories of the upper-middle class (mostly in these same blue states) and they have either switched allegiances or are finally opening up their wallet.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  2. 10 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

    She tried to make this a thing 2 months ago and it didn’t catch on then either. Hate pouring cold water

     

    Her new tweet has more than twice the number of likes and generated more than five times the amount of replies compared to her July tweet.

    For a candidate without widespread name recognition, that isn't nothing.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  3. 5 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

    the legitimacy of the candidate will have nothing to do with his/her backstory or qualifications.  the proceedings and if/when they move forward will have nothing to do with his/her backstory or qualifications.

    this won't be held up, halted, or dragged out because of "smearing" of a candidate or someone coming" forward telling "lies" about that candidate.  they could be squeaky clean or jack the fucking ripper.  this is about mcconnell's bullshit hypocrisy and partisanship and trump's insistence on everything being "us vs them".  it will end up costing him the presidency (among other things) and them the senate, but hey, i'm sure they'll take solace knowing they put a 3rd person on the court when they're out of power.

    All of this.

    I have no interest in digging up dirt on this woman. No Democratic senator should have to hunt for any excuse to reject her confirmation. 

    This must solely be about the stolen pick from 2016. The appearance of such blatant partisan politics will resonate with voters much more than culture wars, civil rights issues, or any stories of past transgressions. Everyone outside of the maga base is sick of that shit.

  4. 10 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

    I’ve spoken to lots of people saying they’re voting for Trump and Jones because they think Tuberville is an embarrassment.
     

    This is only the second time in recorded history in which a sentence about Trump has the word "embarrassment" in reference to someone else.

    I'm positive you accounted for the only other instance back in 2017.

  5. 1 hour ago, RPM said:

    We're a bunch of quivering pussies. Wait for the debates. Uncle Joe will mop the floor with Trump. Kamala will tear Pence a new asshole. He probably needs one as worn out as it is.

    It's understandable that spirits are low after hearing Trump and his sycophants gaslight the country for four straight nights. It's psychologically draining even for the most optimistic of us.

    People wonder why elections are held at all in autocratic countries like Belarus, Russia, and Turkey if they are just going to get fucked with. It's because fucking with the outcome is the point. It's psychological warfare. It's a show of strength.

    Trump is well aware of this. He took the opportunity to openly flaunt norms and spout lies that the media has no real appetite to fact check to the necessary extent. Because he can.

    40% of us are stupid or selfish or hateful enough to eat it up. We're losing sleep what the other 15% will think.

     

     

  6. 3 hours ago, Mapache said:

    If true, the asshole is already trying to steal the election any way he can

     

     

    The ballot doesn't need to arrive and be counted by election day. It only needs to be postmarked by then. See California 2018 and the trickle of ballots arriving until late November.

    There's still a chance for shenanigans if the results are not decided by the time the Electoral College votes in December. We may be glad for the lame duck period. 

  7. Only an upper-atmosphere nuclear explosion is capable of generating a long range EMP that could effectively cripple most of the country. Smaller scale non-nuclear weaponry would be restricted to battlefields and local theaters of hot conflict. Somebody educate me if this is not the case.

    I don't see this as being anything other than a fancy name for a nuclear attack. Therefore, due to MAD, it has as much a chance of happening as a more conventional nuclear exchange. If we see ballistic missiles headed our way, we won't bother to wait and see if these warheads are meant to turn our cities to rubble or just fry a bunch of circuit boards. 

     

    • Hook 'Em 1
    • Like 1
  8. 1 hour ago, honolulu horn said:

    Baffling, even with the Cuban / Venezuelan angle posted above. His policy is to call brown people, rapists / murderers / drug lords, build a wall to keep them out, and separate parents from kids at the border while keeping them in cages -- while some die. Should be pretty low hanging fruit for an ad spot or two, aimed directly at Latinx populations. 

    I don't know about Venezuelans, but it's not baffling at all that Cubans vote Republican, particularly older ones .

    Cubans historically have been able to just wash up onto US territory (literally in some cases) and claim amnesty. They can bypass the majority of the immigration process that most of the rest of the world, and all other LA citizens are subjected. They have been anointed the chosen people for political reasons and many tend to vote just like their entitled white brethren. Obama nixing the amnesty program not long before leaving office probably turned even more of them off of the Democrats.

    Cubans should be treated as their own category (or considered whites) in political polls and surveys and not lumped into the broader Hispanic/Latinx grouping. 

    • Like 3
  9. On 7/8/2020 at 7:45 PM, LTtxfan said:

     

     

    I fully expect Cal will follow suit. They also have a large number of sports programs that they can barely support on a good year. Attempts at even minor cuts have prompted backlash from alums in the past but not anymore.

    Expect smaller cuts elsewhere if only because everyone else had already downsized.

    • Like 1
  10. On 7/9/2020 at 6:04 PM, StassneyHorn said:

    You demanded it, and you got it. Alaska polling. Nobody has heard of Al Gross. The people who have, like him. DSCC should tell McGrath to help a guy out. Cause he actually has a chance.

    PPP’s new Alaska poll finds that the Presidential race in the state this year might be the closest it’s been since the 1960s. Donald Trump is under water on his approval rating, with 46% of voters approving of the job he’s doing to 49% who disapprove. He leads Joe Biden by just 3 points at 48-45. Biden has a double digit lead with independent voters at 52-39. Republicans have won the state by at least 9 points in every election since 1968.

    You can add Alaska to the growing list of potentially competitive Senate races where Republicans are going to have to play defense this fall. Dan Sullivan hasn’t established much of a profile with voters in the state- only 35% approve of the job he’s doing to 37% who disapprove, and 27% have no opinion about him one way or the other. He leads Al Gross just 39-34 for reelection. Gross isn’t very well known yet- 72% of voters say they have no opinion about him. Among the voters who are familiar enough with him to have an opinion he actually leads Sullivan 56-36, suggesting that if he has the funds necessary to become well known in the state he will have a good chance at making it a top tier race.

    https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/close-races-abound-in-alaska/

    I was curious to see what kind of impact donations would have in this race. Two questions I had was how much has each candidate raised and how expensive it is to campaign in Alaska.

    It's easy enough to find information to answer the first question. Sullivan has $4.5M on-hand as of March. He raised 8 million in 2014 when he was last up. Gross has $2M on-hand. Online ad expenditure is almost even between the candidates and not that high to date. That's all there is on opensecrets, so I have no answer to the second question.

    https://www.opensecrets.org/races/candidates?cycle=2020&id=AKS1&spec=N

    In any case, $2 million isn't nothing, so I think Gross should set up to be funded well enough already to get his name out there. 

     

  11. On 7/9/2020 at 6:17 PM, Voldemort86 said:

    I’m no damn expert, but this polling should be true. Not saying it is, but it doesn’t take a genius to see that Tillis is a very weak and pathetic senator. If you ask me, North Carolina needs to completely overhaul their senators like Arizona is about to do ( with 2 party switches or flips).

    I will say that Arizona is only going to have 2 Democratic senators because of McCain’s death tho. The guy had a great relationship with his state and was widely respected. I bet Arizona would’ve elected him several more times with ease. 

    PPP is a Democratic pollster, but they're legit. Accounting for the few points bias to the left, this race still looks like a Dem lean.

    39% is awful for an incumbent.

  12. On 7/3/2020 at 9:11 PM, bolverk said:

    This X 1000.If Biden is elected, H.R. 1 needs a vote in the Senate in his first 100 days.

    Corruption is the root cause or a major contributing factor in essentially everything wrong with America today. It would frankly be a waste of time to pass any far-reaching legislation without first addressing the systemic causes of unequal representation and political dysfunction. 

    I hope it doesn't get lost in what would surely be a chaotic transition of power.

  13. Case? As in one case? Big deal. Plague in China should be no surprise. The Central Asian rodent population is where the disease originates. 

    Rodents in the western United States are a plague reservoir leftover from the pandemic that started in the late 1800's. Cases in the US alone can reach double digits per year

     

  14. For the first time there was a paper backup system going at my polling place yesterday in Fort Bend County. A paper receipt was printed by the machine, which I handed in to the poll worker after I left the booth.  

    How widespread is this within Texas? Will the general election be run this way or was this a runoff one-off?

  15. 23 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

    Anyone spiking the football now is insane. Trump has figured out he’s being pummeled and his going to listen to advisors and stay on point. The only question is how long can he control himself. Is it weeks? Months? Minutes? It will vary from day to today but I expect him to pull himself together and tighten up his campaign in the short and medium term. The polls will shrink. Probably get downright tight. Can trump manage to go a few days without a new scandal? Who knows. But I’m in no way feeling good, at all. This feels like 2016 all over again, no matter how many polls and statistics in swing states and counties seem to indicate otherwise. A wounded animal is always the most dangerous, and trump and his supporters (40% of America) are ALL wounded animals at this point. 

    I agree, but his advisors all have their heads up his ass. Yes-men are all that remains in the WH and his campaign. That Politico piece was full of quotes from the tone deaf.

    I don't think his advisors were telling him not to have the Tulsa rally. They don't seem to see any differences between 2016 and now, despite Covid and the protest movement and just the raw numbers.

    He'd be much better off listening to Republican senators and governors, who are going to run away from him if this keeps up.

     

    Quote

    Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, who effectively oversees the campaign from the White House, is expected to play an even more active role.

    Good.

  16. 38 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

    Bro. Give me them drugs.  
     

    edit: full blown aids 

    Ha. Yeah, it's strange. "Covid toes" is a real thing, apparently, but this is on my fingers. I know lots of viruses cause rashes.

    Here's a paper about Covid and urinary symptoms. ~12% of cases in their very small sample size.

    Anyway, I wonder what else is going around right now considering that some of the usual vectors should be suppressed. What's really going on with the 90% of tests being negative? Some combination of hypochondriacs, getting tested too late, or some other bug.

    • Like 1
  17. Can Covid give you a UTI, cause frostbite in summer, and leave without a trace? Today I got my negative test result after nearly three weeks of the weirdest symptoms.

    It started with burning while taking a leak. Urologist saw blood in my urine but no white blood cells but put me on antibiotics anyway. Around that time I was unusually tired, like worn-the-fuck-out-just-ran-a-marathon tired after days at work, which lasted almost a week. About one week in, I had a low grade fever for only a couple of evenings and the start of widespread body aches that are still kind of with me now.

    About a week ago the pee pee symptoms and tiredness resolved but I developed a strange rash on my fingers, like frostbite, that actually have worsened. Also around then, my wife and two kids got fevers, with my wife complaining about soreness and food tasting weird. That made me finally go in and get tested, that and reading about unusual Covid symptoms that seem eerily like my own.

    I've felt a little sticky in the back of my throat the past few days. Otherwise neither I nor any other family members have had respiratory symptoms.

    I'm thinking about checking for antibodies but I don't really care. I figure I'll just assume no immunity, keep masking up, and staying away from people.

    • Haha 1
  18. Wasn't there a similar release a year ago in that general area? I thought it led to speculation about a failed top secret weapons test, more specifically a nuclear powered cruise missle.

    https://thediplomat.com/2019/02/russia-conducts-test-of-nuclear-powered-cruise-missile/

    Quote

    In a speech unveiling a suite of new missile systems before the Russian Federal Assembly in March 2018, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted that “In late 2017, Russia successfully launched its latest nuclear-powered missile at the Central training ground.”

    He continued that “during its flight, the nuclear-powered engine reached its design capacity and provided the necessary propulsion.” He additionally claimed that the missile’s range was “unlimited” and that it could “maneuver for as long as necessary.”

    No country has to date deployed a cruise missile using an on-board nuclear reactor, largely given the engineering challenges and safety concerns involved. In the late-1950s, the United States began development on prototype nuclear-powered ramjet engines as part of Project Pluto, but none of those missiles were ever deployed.

     

    • Like 1
  19. More on Hickenlooper's latest issues. 

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/21/john-hickenlooper-colorado-senate-stumble-330755

    Quote

    Democrats acknowledge Hickenlooper has made serious mistakes on what was supposed to be a glide path to the Democratic nomination. After being cited for contempt this month for initially failing to appear before Colorado’s Independent Ethics Commission, Hickenlooper was fined $2,750 for two violations dating back to his second term as governor.

    He’s also apologized for comments about race, including responding to a question about the Black Lives Matter protests in a recent forum by saying the phrase means "every life matters," echoing a common refrain among conservatives.

    Spoiler

    In particular, some Democrats questioned the handling of the Independent Ethics Commission case against him. The hearing was delayed in March because of the Covid-19 outbreak. Hickenlooper offered to testify in person later this year, but the commission went forward with a virtual format over his objection.

    The commission issued a subpoena for him to appear and held him in contempt when he did not. Hickenlooper testified the next day, and the commission found that he had violated the state’s ethics laws in two of six charges brought against him.

    Democrats have called it a partisan smear because a former Republican lawmaker runs the nonprofit organization that made the allegations, which have been featured in dark-money attack ads. But some Democrats say his campaign should have fought more aggressively.

    “This whole thing was a setup from the beginning, and they should have gone after it sooner,” said Laura Chapin, a veteran strategist in the state. She said the ethics ruling was “in the grand scheme of things not that big a deal,” compared to the Trump administration.

     

×
×
  • Create New...