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Posts posted by berlinerbaer
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1 hour ago, Js1 said:
D+3 in 2020 still kept the House with the Dems after a decade of shitty maps. TBD on what kind of environment is needed with much better maps
The maps in 2022 will be much better than they were in 2012, yes, but will they be better than in 2020?
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I'm a huge math and geography fan too, fellas, but I don't think that is going to spell trouble for Democrats in 2022. My interest is instead on the polls, which look increasingly "midterm-like" for the Democrats.
If the generic ballot is neutral or even D+2 or so, then the fairest maps in the world will still hand the GOP the House next cycle.
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2 minutes ago, Js1 said:
Not getting it back for 14 years? That’s so doubtful.
Unified government is rare. The Rs had it from 2003-2007 only because 9/11 fallout made the 2002 midterm atypically good for the party in the WH. That was the first time either party had it for more than two years since 1981. Before that, you need to go back to the 60s. So every 20 years or so is the norm, not every decade like we've become accustomed.
The Dems need to take advantage of the next 15 months or FAAFO.
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2 hours ago, phdhorn said:
Yes, but my point in the article is that al-Rahman, a hardliner, might be willing to look the other way even briefly while ISIS carries out attacks, which they've been doing anyway for years in Afghanistan, despite their opposition to the Taliban, and especially if they're not aimed at the Taliban,Which they wouldn't be.
In the 2015 ISI Taliban war, many fighting on the isis side were excaliban who didn't like their warlord. So allegiances are not exactly clear.
All bets are off in that hellhole right now.
Allegiances in Afghanistan are remarkably fluid and have been so at least since the Soviet War. We didn't seem to take this much into account over the course of our 20 year war.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/08/16/afghanistan-history-taliban-collapse-504977
QuoteThe central feature of the past several weeks in Afghanistan has not been fighting. It has been negotiations between the Taliban and Afghan forces, sometimes brokered by local elders. On Sunday, the Washington Post reported “a breathtaking series of negotiated surrenders by government forces” that resulted from more than a year of deal-making between the Taliban and rural leaders.
QuoteThus, as in medieval Europe, Afghanistan has a tradition to which the Taliban have adhered closely — and which helps explain the speed of their success. The Taliban will summon an enemy garrison to surrender, either at once or after the first assaults. If it does so, the men can either join the besiegers or return home with their personal weapons. To kill them would be seen as shameful. On the other hand, a garrison that fought it out could expect no quarter, a very strong incentive to surrender in good time.
QuoteAfghan society has been described to me as a “permanent conversation.” Alliances shift, and people, families and tribes make rational calculations based on the risk they face. This is not to suggest that Afghans who made such decisions are to blame for doing what they felt to be in their self-interest. The point is that America’s commanders and officials either completely failed to understand these aspects of Afghan reality or failed to report them honestly to U.S. administrations, Congress and the general public.
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3 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:
Glad I was able to get my two out when we could. But the concern about the families is a big deal right now
Probably a dumb question that has been answered already, but how can the Taliban identify people who supported us? Is there some kind of national registry of interpreters? Are they flying American flags in their front yard? Are people getting doxed on social media? Do they just assume that people who left the country did to avoid capture and then go after their families? Is there an accurate census of where people are living and is there information therein about their occupation or past work history?
I did read that State and the DoD have been scrubbing names and photos the past several days from websites and online registries to protect these people, so I'm sure that's a clue. I'd think that many of the people who cooperated during the occupation should be able to hide away.
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My son's kindergarten class has had two confirmed cases since school started last Wednesday. Yesterday, we got a call from the nurse that he is a close contact with the second case, which happened on Monday. He will be getting tested Saturday. We thought about pulling him but it sounds like other parents are doing that so his class is down to about 60% capacity, which seems safer. With remote learning starting next week, we should expect smaller class sizes going forward. He is a pro at mask wearing, which helps us feel a lot better. Daughter is one of only 4 kids in her daycare class. I'm not concerned about her.
We are supposed to go to a cousin's wedding in Wisconsin next week. If the test comes back negative and there are no more close contacts until then, we've decided to make the trip. Getting the hell out of Texas is my main rationale.
What is the best way to test a five year-old? My wife and I want to take the rapid test that's now available before the trip. Anyone have experience with those?
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2 hours ago, brakeman said:
Sausage fest
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1 hour ago, Brothahorn said:
So why keep the shitty deal in place if it was so shitty? Why not trash/ignore it and come up with something better? It's not like he hasn't amended or scrapped other Trump policies. So why keep this one?
Competent adults don't do stupid shit because the person in front of them did some stupid shit.
This ain't the Paris climate deal, bro. Scrapping this one means the Taliban starts sending hails of bullets at our people and puts some of them in Arlington.
It's easy to forget that foreign parties negotiate with the United States, not just with Joe Biden or Donald Trump.
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3 hours ago, UDontKnow said:
Speaking of intel. This is an interesting and disturbing walk down memory lane. Sorry for the length of the post.
I'm convinced that third country would have been Pakistan. Fuck Bush, but I would have rejected that offer too.
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Naw. Americans still don't care about foreign policy for the most part.
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Yeah, I'd be shocked if Biden didn't make a stop in CA before this is all over. Hell, I think he should do a mini tour of the state. Everyone's approval rating is taking a Delta-related hit right now: Desantis, Biden, probably even Abbott. But unfortunately for Newsom, only he is up for recall. He mandated facemasks and several local jurisdictions went further. Trumpkins are pissed. The fact is that this recall will be closer than it should be. I fully expect it to be closer than the governor elections in Virginia because McAuliffe won't have suffered through Covid blowback as an incumbent.
Homework assignment to ask my parents which way they're leaning.
The ridiculous thing is that CA is going to do this all over again for the regularly scheduled election next year, and the Dem will be a lock. A Republican sneaking into the governorship for 16 months isn't going to move the needle at all in CA policy-wise (Dem lockdown in the leg and all other statewide positions), but fuck if I want to hear any GOP crowing.
A silver lining: I expect a proposition banning recall elections to be on the ballot soon.
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In a visit with a friend in 2012, I had a long chat with a young active duty marine who her younger sister had recently eloped with. The dude was kind of a bum and a weirdo for sure, but what he said about his tours in Iraq and Afghanistan have since been prophetic to me. He swore that the Iraqis would fight alongside the Americans when they came under attack, while the Afghans would drop their weapons and retreat when things got too hot. Fast forward almost a decade and the Iraqis have since driven ISIS out of their country, admittedly under cover of US airstrikes and special forces, but the Afghan army is now literally melting away despite there still being a few thousand US troops there and the same degree of air support.
The fact is that the 20 years of nation building we've payed billions for haven't convinced Afghans to risk their skin to protect it. A soldier deserting their post in the middle of the night doesn't feel compelled to fight for the generation of girls who have been able to go to school, to speak nothing of their government. There isn't much inspiration in defending what an occupying force has constructed. Let's look at morale. While one side is deserting, the other is sending suicide bombers.
QuoteThis thinking extends to ordinary Afghans as well, many of whom do not subscribe to the Taliban’s extremist political vision but are sympathetic to their invocation of Islamic principles against foreign occupiers. The 2012 Asia Foundation survey, the most respected survey of the Afghan people, found that of those Afghans who strongly sympathized with the Taliban, 77 percent said they did so because the Taliban were Afghans, Muslims, and waging jihad.
QuoteThe largest popular upheaval I witnessed firsthand in Afghanistan was not over the government’s mistreatment of the people or Pakistani perfidy. It was hundreds of angry villagers marching miles to the dusty bazaars of Garmser, protesting a rumor that an American had damaged a Koran.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/07/06/afghanistan-war-malkasian-book-excerpt-497843
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My son started his first day of Kindergarten today. This afternoon we all got an email from the principal that 4 "individuals of the ____ community" have tested positive. Already. What I don't understand and what I probably won't be able to figure out is if these people set foot on campus in the last couple of days. Possibly, since there was a meet the teacher on Monday.
My son is super excited about starting school and we want him to do in-person learning. I doubt we could swing home schooling or remote learning. Even if we did, it's not available until two weeks from now, so lots of FAAFO between now and then. The emotional roller coaster between watching him start this next chapter in his life and worrying about his health is jarring.
We are supposed to go to a wedding up in Wisconsin at the end of the month. We have been thinking of pulling the plug on that, but by some twisted irony it may be good to get out of the hot zone that is Texas if only temporarily.
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6 hours ago, kopp0e said:
Even if the Big Ten turned predatory and offered membership to the California schools en masse, Cal and Stanford are more likely to stop playing major college football than lunge for cash in a conference 2,000 miles away.
Agree on Stanford. Cal has massive debt to pay off from their stadium renovation (a few $100 million) so that they will jump through whatever hoops necessary for cash. If it wasn't for that, they'd also settle for relegation without putting up a fight.
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Shit
Was D+9 in May
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6 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:
Joe has developed quite the acid tongue lately. MOAR.
Joe has always had the acid tongue. It's just returned after an 18 month hiatus.
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USWNT 2021
in Futbol
9 hours ago, Napoleon said:The problem with the USWNT is that the senior citizens of this squad are 1) National Icons, 2) World Champions, 3) Examples of Perseverance, and 4) Politically Active Leaders. A first time coach could not axe:
This reminds me of the controversy Klinsmann got after cutting Donovan leading up to the 2014 WC. But did he replace Donovan with Wondo or Green?
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I'm far from being pissed about this game. We've had several chances to steal this thing and we get another 30 minutes to do so.
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I could use an explanation on why CONCACAF hosts the Nations League and Gold Cup only a couple months apart. Seems like the same teams play in both.
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LOL when 10% turnout gives you anxiety then you are a shitty candidate. A shitty Dotard-endorsed candidate, which is delicious.
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Jaja! Fuck el Tri!
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Thought Buchannan was offsides there, but that was slick.
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1 hour ago, ztejas said:
Bow to me.
Damn son
LSU@UCLA- f the SEC!
in Football
Posted
It was fucking hot last week and it's fucking hot today. Not surprised that Bruin fans are staying away. There is zero shade in that place.
There should be quite a few UCLA late arrivals this evening. It should look decent on TV by the 2nd half.