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berlinerbaer

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Posts posted by berlinerbaer

  1. 20241030_112720.jpg

     

    Top line for PA: Even

    For reference, the actual VBM partisan split in PA as of this Monday is 58-31-10 D-R-I. Giving the GOP all the indies, and assuming no other partisan switching makes it 58-41. This poll clearly seems to have oversampled Republicans.

    MOE of 9% though, so small sample size of like 100.

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  2. SIAP. Apparently a CNN poll from today has Harris +1 in AZ with 55% of poll respondents saying they already voted, with Harris leading among the early voters 53 - 44, even though most of them were Republican. If accurate, then this thing's all over but the shenanigans.

    They polled Nevada also and had Trump +1 overall and up 52 - 46 in the already voted category, which was only 42% of respondents. That corroborates the current GOP lead we see there but suggests a lot more of the vote is outstanding.

    I couldn't find the early voter respondent data but the numbers are in the CNN article.

    https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/25257085/cnn-polls-harris-and-trump-locked-in-close-races-in-arizona-and-nevada-as-pool-of-persuadable-voters-shrinks.pdf

    https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/29/politics/cnn-polls-arizona-nevada-trump-harris/index.html

     

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  3. 1 hour ago, bolverk said:

    I visited New Mexico for 20 minutes the other day, and as a result, I'm a little high today, so forgive me if my hypothesis is a little off.

    It seems like BamaATL is saying that a lot of these newer, older voters are in large, historically Democratic counties. If it holds true that the core counties of larger metropolitan areas trend Democratic AND also are the places where both domestic and international migrants often go to when they move to a growing state (like Georgia), then isn't it possible that these new voters happen to also be new registrants of people who've moved there in the past four years?

    I think the breakdown of newer voters in GA can tell us where the newer voters are coming from or how old they are, but not both.

    My somewhat pessimistic best guess is that they are recent arrivals from other states, retirees probably like elsewhere in the Sunbelt, and likely leaning Trump. The silver lining is that some of them are leaving the northern swing states and making them bluer.

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  4. 2 hours ago, quigley said:

     

    Polling has fucked us for the last decade.

    The polls have terribly low response rates (2.5% from NYT-Siena) so they have massive error bars. If they reported their true data, with possibly 10 - 15% margin of error (or more), people would stop listening to pollsters. The pollsters want to keep their jobs so they dial down the margin of error to ~ 5% and include the 50% threshold in their error. By doing this, they appear to be herding, even if they don't aren't explicitly compromising their data.

    Tight polling gives the appearance of a tight race so news outlets have a game to cover instead of focusing on policy and competency, which are boring. This reporting is a self-fulfilling prophecy, increasing anxiety and distrust in the populous.

    The margin of error reported by polls is just the pure random statistical error, which is inversely proportional to the square root of the sample size. I agree that it's conveniently small compared to how far off many polls are.

    Where most polls screw up is with the systematic error: unrepresentative sampling, wonky weighting, incorrect expectations of voting behavior, etc. To play devil's advocate, thought, there is no way to measure this error mathematically, so pollsters report the only error they can measure quantitatively.

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  5. It seems Dems are crushing the mail-in vote in PA and elsewhere. Then I keep hearing that the Rs are keeping pace or even leading with early in-person voting. So is the partisan discrepancy more between mail vs. in-person than it is early vs. Election Day?

    Where that discrepancy lies will be the difference between a close race and Harris blowing Trump out a la Fetterman - Oz.

  6. 11 hours ago, bluto said:

    Siap been out today and this thread moves fast…

    on the not great news front Ralston is starting his deep dive on Nevada and thinks Harris is in danger based on shrinking dem adv in registration. He’s currently saying Harris needs to win independents by 3 pts, Biden won em by 6 for reference. 

    That shrinking Dem reg advantage got a massive shot in the arm back in July, and those new registrants are going to vote bigly for Kamala.

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  7. 44 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

    FTFY.

    I think the campaign event in Wisconsin making a big deal of the Cheney endorsement was a waste of time. She could have accepted the endorsement with a short video. Wasting a whole campaign day is bad strategy.

    Agreed.

    I cringed when she gave a shout-out to Dick at that rally. Nobody likes Dick Cheney and all Democrats HATE him. Unforced error.

  8. 8 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

    Certainly some of that WI/MI money could be better allocated towards OH/PA?

    Some candidates are just good at raising money on their own. I don't know how easy those funds can be transferred to other campaigns and wouldn't assume big numbers in some places mean the national party is hanging some candidates out to dry.

    Gallego comes to mind. He's ahead like +10 in the polls and doesn't need $35M, but people are still opening their wallets for him.

  9. 8 hours ago, WBT said:

    Lulz, 2nd flag on Cal for fans throwing shit on the field.  Wilcox just got on the mic telling them to stop.

    The Pac had rules against placing the visitors next to the students. The ACC does not.

    I'll know the university is taking football seriously if the students are coached into turning this into home field advantage instead of just moving the away team, which I fully expect.

  10. 12 hours ago, Js1 said:

    IMG_2806.thumb.webp.e85505c60a3366b586d1650e938ac131.webp

    That poll is 100% bullshit. It's hard enough nowadays to poll enough voters for any candidate to get a MOE of 2%. That would require hundreds if not > 1000 respondents. There is no way they got that many RFK voters to respond.

    This has to be a crosstab of a general election poll with like 50 RFK voters, in which case the MOE is greater than 20%.

     

  11. 30 minutes ago, MrBig said:

    No disrespect to Kamala Harris, but I was more excited about Barack’s campaign in 2008. I was in my 20s and I was disillusioned because the war killed some of my friends and family while those who returned were not the same as before. My last year of grad school wasn’t so exciting because the job market sucked and the economy was in the toilet. I was worried about finding a job and having health insurance after I left school and could no longer get coverage through UT.

    Barack Obama gave me hope he was going to fix things and stop perpetuating the lies the Bush administration fed to us after 9/11. Obama promised to end the war in Iraq and pushed for health insurance to keep people on their parents’ plan until age 26. 

    Looking back, I know the excitement I felt for Obama in 2008 is what young and olds feel for Kamala today. My key issues regarding the war and health insurance back in 2008 are how people feel now about reproductive rights, medical privacy, and gun control. 

    Yes, I was more excited about Barack back then, but the excitement I felt was rooted in my belief he would be the savior to all the problems the Bush administration created. The Harris-Walz ticket feels different. I don’t view them as “saviors” who came down to help guide us through the fog the way I felt with Obama. I view Harris-Walz as people I grew up with who also happen to be in high ranking positions of power. Harris is like someone I can call up and say hey, “pick Tim Walz for VP” and she would actually listen. 

    The Harris-Walz campaign feels like regular people. Just me and you and the neighbors down the street who also happen to be politicians coming together to defeat a terrible monster who is rotting the country from the inside out. The issues today are bigger and more life changing this time around, but my excitement level is tempered because I just can’t get it up as high 16 years later.

    No question Obama's was bigger, but his movement grew in spite of, or probably because of its independence from the Democratic party. This did not help the party post-ACA.

    Harris and Walz are not outsiders or newcomers to the Democratic party. The groundswell of support they are attracting should help the party going forward. Although it doesn't feel as unique and powerful as Obama '08 felt to me, this campaign and the administration that should come in 2025 will likely be far more consequential than Obama's. 

    Harris also didn't have to win a grueling primary to get the nomination, unlike Obama having to go through Hillary. '08 seemed fun at the time but it really left some real damage in the party, if we are being honest with ourselves.

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  12. 23 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

    That's just it though. Her policy is right-of-center. That's why Lankford and Lindsey Graham support the policies of the bill but the republicans didn't want Biden to get credit.

    If you want to improve turnout, don't demoralize the people left of center. I hope she's only acting like this for immigration because if she goes with right-of-center positions for other issues people care about it will have consequences. Don't shoot the messenger, it's just true.

    Harris is rightly using the Lankford bill to hammer Republicans on the campaign. It's your own fault that you don't understand politics enough to realize that isn't predictive of her future administration's policy.

    That bill is dead and buried and will never get voted on. The next immigration bill drafed under a Harris administration will be to the left of that one, maybe only slightly, because the Republicans will have lost all leverage.

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