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berlinerbaer

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Posts posted by berlinerbaer

  1. It helps to scroll to the bottom of the article. 

    Quote

    The survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Poll and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval.

    Polls are small samples of the population and this survey was a sample of that sample. Conducted online. Because methodology.

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  2. 1 hour ago, GW Hayduke said:

    Now do the Likud party.  Bibi and the far right factions in Israel are the ones who have undermined peace and empower hamas. Without spooky browns to stir up fear and provide political power, far right elements in Israel would be very weak, and left wing elements would be in power, the settlements would stop, and peace would become an option. 
     

    To get to peace, we would need to remove the far right elements from both Palestine and Israel.  Hamas needs Likud.  Likud needs Hamas.

    Yep. The far right is the far right, whether in Israel, the USA, or 1930s Europe.

    They stir up shit because it's how they stay in power.

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  3. 30 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

    The other viable solution is the complete and utter defeat of Palestinian resistance and the integration of remaining Palestinians into Israel as a unified state. We are a lot closer to that one happening, for better or worse. It isn't my preference by any means, but I think it is what will happen in the long run. 

     

    Yes, the one-state solution is the only one that is viable over the long term. Any country that looks like this has no future by virtue of the laws of physical geography.

    Even with the 1949 borders, Palestine was a geopolitical failure waiting to happen. 

    What-is-the-West-Bank.png?ssl=1

     

    We won't be getting a secular pluralistic democracy once Palestine is fully digested.

  4. NWS Houston forecasters are just saying fuck it at this point. This guy isn't even the comedian of the bunch.

    Quote
    Another way to take it is my main takeaway from the night shift`s
    briefing to me this morning - conditions now are typically what we`d
    expect to see in the summertime. Not the blast furnace summer that
    we just experienced, but an actual normal summer. And in many ways,
    that is what my forecast reflects. The NBM output seems to mostly be
    putting forth this picture, so I didn`t have to make much more than
    minor tweaks. Somebody should probably tell the atmosphere that
    while it is a very lovely summer pattern it`s giving us, we`re going
    into October now and maybe we should consider doing some more
    autumnal things.

     

  5. 14 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

    I guess I disagree with that a bit.

    There are a handful of programs that are of national interest irrespective of on-the-field performance.  Texas falls into that group.  So does Notre Dame.  Michigan, Ohio State, USC, . . . I don't know--maybe Alabama.  But those programs are pretty limited in number.

    And then there are a lot of programs that are of national interest when they're good enough to be challenging for a national championship.  I think Clemson is the archetype for this category.  Clemson is obviously of national interest right now.  Pretty much all of us watched them get their clocks cleaned by Duke Monday night.  But pretty much all of us remember pre-Dabo Clemson, when that program wasn't particularly good.  And when it's not challenging for a national championship, Clemson is of little interest outside the Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson megalopolis.

     

    I get all that. I'm not arguing that on-field results aren't important historically, but there are many posters questioning the alignment of a program based on its team winning or losing six days ago, and some of them aren't trying to be funny.

    I can't think of any teams at risk of relegation in which on-field performance is the main reason.

  6. On 9/5/2023 at 1:07 PM, 'stache said:

    Yeah, BYU guy is annoying, I've been negged by him multiple times, doesn't change the fact that the extent of your hatred of the Big XII overall is bizarre. The comment you specifically mentioned was "The Big 12 will be just fine without TX and OU" which is true. We'll be paid what we're worth and it is pretty good under the circumstances. There's plenty of middle ground between BIG/SEC and complete irrelevance. We're below those two in prestige and well above the G5, and will be compensated accordingly. The networks aren't going to reneg because two traditionally middling Big XII teams shit the bed in Week 1.

    Maybe on page 687 people will realize that all this shit isn't really about on-field performance.

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  7. On 8/24/2023 at 7:10 PM, redswingline said:

    Their best shot was 2004 when A-aron was playing QB.

    Problem is they had to play USC, who was in its best run ever (2002-2008).

    If I recall A-aron got Cal to 1st and goal near the end of the game, but couldn't get it punched in.

    I don't want to get all technical or anything but Cal was co-champions with SC back in '06. Finished the year pushing aggy's shit in.

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  8. On 7/24/2023 at 11:58 AM, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

    fuck Israel. it's way past time we stop propping them up. I have never heard a good argument as to why we send them so much money. Key protector if the region? Orly? which recent conflicts have they prevented or stopped? as best as I can tell they only use their military against people who have as much right to be there as they do. they could share, but they don't want to. their bigotry is no more tolerable than the versions we have here at home.

    The Israelis know where the bodies are buried. Careful letting the dog off the leash.

  9. 7 hours ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

    Best approach is to get into any power conference, hold on, and hope that they can hang on when the next round of realignment takes place.  Lightning will also have to strike in the form of a generational football coach a la Harbaugh and a Phil Knight style alumnus to save the program.

    Being relegated finishes Stanford football off, with very negative implications for all its other sports. 

    Your prognostication applies more to Cal than Stanford.

    Harbaugh/Shaw actually happened and the best Stanford could do was not even fill their own stadium. The Phil Knight option is more realistic but money doesn't matter if the networks don't think people want to watch. They are a disinterested fanbase and there's no changing that. That said, I think it would be possible for a handful of donors to prop the AD up even in the absence of power conference membership, or anyone else caring.

    Cal was selling out its stadium in the mid/late 00s but football reverted back to the mean and couldn't maintain fan interest. A Harbaugh-like coach or major benefactors would both be godsends right now. Maybe we're seeing the latter, but they have to contend with campus politics, a retiring chancellor, and a meek AD. For Cal, I'm afraid it really is power 4 or bust.

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  10. 2 hours ago, Parliament said:

    Mr. Bass talks about the prep work that China is doing like food stocking (18 months of wheat for example) and building coal-fired power plants.  That won't be enough.  Add in the fact their military is unproven, they gotta invade across the ocean and yeah, they'd lose.  

    But there are counterpoints.  Fighting and losing a war might be seen as a "uniting" event for Xi.  Losing a war, badly, would get rid of a buncha excess Chinese males.  We need to be careful not to just look at this from the perspective of western democrats.  For a non-European dictatorship winning/losing can look very different.

    I'm not saying this guy is right or wrong, but we need to listen to the contrarians.  I worry we are not.

    Don't mistake Surly opinion as a microcosm of overall opinion in the West. The real contrarians are the guys like Zeihan. All of our war games show the US losing at least an aircraft carrier. Nobody who matters is downplaying this threat and, if anything, its the China hawks like Bass who hold more sway over actual policymaking.

  11. On 7/3/2023 at 11:46 AM, Schulz2.0 said:

    They monopolized rare earth minerals and other metals by having the government subsidize the industry. That drove the cost so low it put other manufacturers elsewhere out of business. 

    Now that they are cutting supply, costs will go up and new players will come online and ramp up their own production. Won't happen overnight, but China is either going to back track or they will be out of the raw materials market.

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  12. 53 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

    Of those, only the Ka-52 and Mi-35 have any sort of kinetic offensive capability. The others are transport, electronic warfare, and eye in the sky—- what you’d expect in a “keep an eye on this” situation. 
     

    Notably missing from the area— Su-25 and Su-34 attack aircraft that would have made short work of any column driving down a highway. The only aerial hit that’s confirmed is a mistaken rocket attack that hit a bus.

    Of all the things I’m sure of, I am sure there was never a top-down order through the RuAF chain of command to attack and stop Wagner.  

    I thought I heard the Russians set a daily record for number of missiles launched at Ukraine yesterday. It would have been easy to annihilate the Wagner column if there was consensus to do so.

  13. 1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

    The latest from Montana.

    As an outside observer, it’s always been strange that a deep red state like Montana always elects a democrat, Jon Tester as their senator. He’s up in ‘24. One aspect that has helped Tester a bit is that there is always a Libertarian in the race who receives a 2-3%. When you add the Libertarian and the GOP candidate together, they either equal or exceed Testers total. But Tester always defeats the GOP without a majority.

    To remove the the libertarians from the mix, Montana’s GOP-led legislature is looking to switch to the CA style of a jungle primary where all candidates compete in the same primary, regardless of party, and then only the top 2 go to the general. Result, no libertarian candidate in the general.

    the kicker is that this law would start the ‘24 senate race and then immediately sunsets. It’s basically the Defeat Jon Tester law. The law hasn’t passed yet.

    538 did an article on the Montana top 2 primary stuff last week and why they don't think it will change much.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/jon-tester-montana-2024-election/

    Basically, many indies don't like Ds or Rs, according to exit polls, and will sit out the runoff. Even if they all show up for the runoff, the R would need to pull them at a 2 to 1 clip to close a hypothetical 1 percent gap with Tester. 

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