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berlinerbaer

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Posts posted by berlinerbaer

  1. Beto campaign GOTV numbers, weekend wrap-up edition.

    580,339 doors knocked on as of Monday morning. Over 100k knocked on yesterday alone. 

    FYI, those are total knocks. In my experience, 50 to 70% aren't home or refuse. In most of those cases flyers are dropped off at the door. So that's at least 175,000 actual conversations held and up to 400,000 flyers handed out.

    We should be at 800k by next weekend and over 1 million after next weekend. My guess is that 1.8 million total doors knocked will be the final number by 11/5, well short of the 4.4M goal but an unprecedented effort in the state of Texas regardless.

    • Like 4
  2. 2 hours ago, troph said:

    Beto will have the best GOTV machine Texas Democrats have had in my 25 years of being of voting age. That’s a fact. It will be a GOAT effort and outcome. The question is will it be enough - and if it isn’t, I’ll be in a hole for a while. And bc of that I’ll admit I’m bracing myself for the loss.

     

    2 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

    If this isn't enough, nothing will be.  I'll go straight to the ledge and enjoy a scotch.

    You both need to stop fretting and pick up the phone and make some calls, or head to your nearest campaign office and start knocking on doors. Then, you need to get ready to do it all over again two years from now. 

    Beto is one of the better ones, for sure, but lots of Dems across the country are raising shitloads of money and thousands of people are volunteering for the first time ever.

    Trump and the rest of the GOP are the real motivators.

    • Like 1
  3. Beto GOTV as of midday Saturday: 392,000+ doors knocked on statewide since last weekend . That's cool, but only 9% of their goal of 4.46 million knocks by election day. A lofty goal, but not impossible.

    Fort bend HQ has cell phones to give to block walkers if they don't have their own. Chargers as well.

    Bottom line: Beto doesn't need your money anymore. He needs your time.

    GOTV map: https://win.betofortexas.com

    • Like 1
  4. 2 hours ago, Celery Man said:

    Not sure about most, but it's certainly not simple math.  It's a diverse category, maybe more so in Texas than in some other places.

    The state-to-state variance of Hispanics politically is particularly striking. There's California, where they're out for blood against the Rs, who have fucked with them once too many. Then there are the Cubans in Florida, hypocritically staunchly anti-immigration. Then there's Texas. 

  5. 3 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

    I don't think I'll ever vote for a Republican again.

    This.

    2 hours ago, Hammock said:

    Economy is doing well and no war.

    Well I'm glad to hear that we've finally pulled out of Afganistan and are no longer killing Yemenis alongside the Saudis. 

    • Like 1
  6. 10 hours ago, lemonlime said:

    Maybe it's that Bredeson came out in favor of Kavanaugh's confirmation?  IMO, still doesn't explain a 10 point swing.  But if you're say a republican or independent woman on the fence, and you see that the dem is going to vote the same way as Blackburn, you gotta be thinking to yourself I might as well vote for Blackburn.

    Throw out the Sienna College/NYT poll, as it's clearly an outlier. Now it's a more manageable 5 point swing that can be explained by his Kav endorsement.

    I think voters, especially moderates, want to see contrast in candidates, so I think you're reasoning is correct. It has been reported that many volunteers left his campaign following his announcement. He can't afford to lose any door-knockers if he wants to attract these people. I wouldn't be surprised either if some liberals or progressives were turned off by his support for Kav and plan on staying home.

    It was a mistake. I hope future Dems running in Red Country take heart and learn from his error.

  7. 5 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

    Did Ted Cruz write these questions?

    Are you for Open Borders?

    What’s the deal with your weird first name? 

     

    4 hours ago, FondrenRoad said:

    Most of these questioners seem like Cruz plants except the last one. Beto is doing well with them, but they are a waste of time. 

    Maybe. Then again, good answers to these questions could help sway undecided voters or even the rare Cruz lean. Keep in mind that Pinocchio isn't there for a rebuttal.

    The Cruz campaign already screwed up in turning a debate into a nationally televised town hall. If they did plant any of these questions, then they are even bigger idiots than I thought.

  8. 9 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

    Thankfully after the Kavanaugh shit show, most experts still think Dems will pick up between 20-40 seats in the house.

    538 gives the Dems about an 80% chance of control. The map looks good on cook political report too. Election Day is still about 3 weeks away so some of the Kavanaugh buzz should fade for repubs. I’m not worried about dem enthusiasm, we’ve been pissed and waiting on this election for 2 years.

    The Pubs' message is nationalized. "Supreme Court, Pelosi, George Soros, MS-13, grwahrrr!" This is great for them for the highest level races (Senate) but declines precipitously in effectiveness as you go down-ballot. Even at the Congressional level, more targeted approaches that factor in local politics should hopefully get a lot of Dems elected. Let's cross our fingers that it also pays dividends further down ballot in state and local-level races. 

     

    2 hours ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

    I agree with you, I mean even up this thread there are posts about how FoxNews has even gotten bored with Trump rallies. As Trump will have to engage in crazier and crazier antics to get his attention (Exhibit A: Kanye West having a manic moment in the White House), it's unsustainable. It's like a drug user. You can get high at first off a little bit but after a while you need more and more and more and keep chasing the dragon.

    I agree with your scenario, but I don't think this will be bad for Trump. Evidence points to Trump doing better in the polls the more he can stay out of the news. The Kavanaugh hearing and passage of the tax cuts are really the only events of his presidency where he saw a bump in the polls during and following their occurrence. Everything else that has come in the news cycle has hurt him. Independents are driving his approval rating now that the D's and R's are all dug in.

    I'll go a step further. If his shit-show rallies become passe, they will be yet another of his worst traits to be normalized within American politics. That's bad for us all. If he gets reelected, this and the larger subject of voter fatigue would have been a big reason why, despite any problems it causes with Republicans down-ballot.

  9. 1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

    Damn. Thought Cal was getting things together under Wilcox. That's a bad loss for them. Good for UCLA though. UC System champs!

    I thought the hire of Beau Baldwin as OC was a slam dunk. Instead, it has been astonishingly disappointing so far.

    It's been the play of the defense that has kept me from including Wilcox in that opinion. 

  10. On 10/12/2018 at 6:38 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

    Good for Waller doing the right thing when the students were just following the rules as they were told.  Like anyone govt workers can make mistakes and you shouldn’t penalize voters because of a mistake. 

    Let's not give Waller County too much credit. Better than the alternative, for sure, but it really took the weight of two nearby congresspersons as well as a Rachel Maddow expose to get this corrected?

  11. The Houston Chronicle just threw its support behind Sri Kulkarni in TX-22. My my, how times have changed. Pete Olson used to be the kind of business-friendly Republican that the Chron would have endorsed back in February under a more normal political environment. (That's the breaks when you and your ilk sign a petition to give the Dotard the Nobel Peace Prize over the NK photo op.)

    I talked to one of the Kulkarni campaign heads about polling, or the lack thereof, in the district. He acknowledged that its been harder to find volunteers in Brazoria County, which is where the election could be lost, but their feelers indicated they had the lead in Fort Bend County and that the race should be considered a toss-up.

    Just another idea if you're looking to throw another $25 with Act Blue to a campaign that isn't taking PAC money in a district that may be in play. 

  12. 5 hours ago, Caddox said:

    Question for dems- does it bother you that Beto is attracting money away from other campaigns nationally, even though he’s highly likely to lose?

    Beto's giant haul this quarter amounted to not even fifty bucks from over 800 thousand different donors. For the cost of a couple of movie tickets, those same people can go donate for someone else. Surely that has to be easier than being the GOP and having to knock on the door of some mega-donor and grovel for another $50 million.

  13. Round one of Beto's GOTV effort begins this weekend. They want to knock on over 100,000 doors in two days and make an equal number of phone calls. It would be informative to check where things stand in the polls to see if each campaigns' GOTV effort has any effect as we get closer to election day. Ultimately, comparison between the polls leading up to election day and the actual election result could give us some idea of what kind of impact GOTV has in Texas. Right now:

    RCP polling average = Cruz +7.0

    538 adjusted polls = Cruz +5.6%

    538 "classic" forecast = Cruz +4.9%

  14. 45 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

    I'm in for Beto for a couple hundred.  That money wasn't going anywhere else.   I'm sure some Beto money would have ended up in other campaigns but it's impossible to determine the amounts.  Same for Cruz.  Did the PACs spend their millions on Cruz that were meant potentially for Heller, or was a money given to them specifically for Cruz.  We don't know.

    I gave only to the democratic US Senator, US House, and TX House candidates running in my respective state and districts.

    If someone else wants to throw money at candidates outside of their state or district, more power to them. I don't want to be that kind of player, yet.

  15. 1 hour ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

    Not completely germane, but reminded of the ground campaign canvassing. 

    A young, white, male, nerdy/hipster looking dude rang my doorbell the other night and was canvassing for a guy named Colin Allred. I'd never heard of the guy, didn't know him from Adam, and no idea if he was R or D, but the guy basically said "canvassing for Colin Allred, have you heard of him?" I said no, he said oh okay, well you can look him up and i hope you vote for him bye.

    lol, either he figured he needed to move on because I had no idea who his guy was and I was a waste of space or he was lazy/shy.

    That's what flyers are for. I went knocking for Sri Kulkarni for TX-22 on Sunday and everyone at least took a flyer, even if they said they weren't voting. 

    Three weeks ago I canvassed for Beto and they did pins and stickers but told me to go easy on the flyers because they're expensive. You fuckers better keep donating!

    Good story, though. I've only gone canvassing these two times in my whole life and I can at least say I'm better than this Allred guy. Some people are "in a hurry" but even the non-voters will talk to you if you pry a little. The anti-PAC money thing is a really good icebreaker.

    Seriously, though. There are a ton of first time door-knockers like myself walking around out there.

    • Like 2
  16. 3 minutes ago, Shmitty said:

    I knew all along this season they were overrated.   David Shaw has done quite well off riding Harbaughs coattails and stringing along his success.  

    As much as I'd like to agree with you, I can't. Jimmy was 8 years ago.

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