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berlinerbaer

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Posts posted by berlinerbaer

  1. 5 hours ago, Gengs1 said:

    I know the Dems will fuck it up and play nice and not go after trump, they usually pussy out of those types of things 

    This might normally happen, but there are way too many pissed off, foaming at the mouth progressives who will be camping outside their offices from now until Election Day 2020.

    And that Sinema win just blows my mind. That plus the secretary of state race = purple state

  2. 22 minutes ago, OWLVIS said:

    Its bad, it will get worse, all of Texas will suffer. The Judge was the one willing to stand up to Patrick and Bettencourt..and they feared him.

     

    Now they can go continue to be stupid without fear

    So he was the Jeff Flake of the greater Houston area? It's fitting then that both his and Flake's seats will be occupied by Democrats.

    I'd rather stand up to Goeb by giving some Republicans the boot. Flipping 2 state senate seats and 12 house seats will be far more effective than a tongue lashing from Ed Emmett. I welcome a Harris and Fort Bend county purge as part of the deal.

  3. On 11/8/2018 at 2:55 PM, phdhorn said:

    He would have tons of work to do.  He got a lot of media publicity nationally, but most Americans really didn't pay attention to him outside of Texas - he''s not nearly as well known as you'd think.  This is why it's rare for a President to not have been a Senator, governor, or well-known military hero.  Representatives don't nearly have that exposure.  You could probably easily rattle off 30 U.S. Senators, but reps?  I doubt you would know 10 beyond the leadership holders.  That's Beto's problem.  Then you have to get people to support you and warm up to you.  A Senator or Governor already has that network and tons and tons of fundraising ability.  Yeah Beto made a huge bank in Texas, but the great majority of that was from in-state donors (Cruz, on the other hand, having national exposure, had a ton of $$$ from outside of Texas).

    Not saying he couldn't do it, but he'd have to get a lot of things happen for him.  Even a big state like Texas is nothing compared to the problem of getting yourself out there in a national campaign.  The other thing I think he'd have to do is go back to what he did before he was shown as losing, and therefore go a little negative, which honestly isn't a good look for him.  He could be that under-50 "unity" candidate that brings in enough Indies to make differences in the Rust Belt states if he sticks to a populist, working class message.  Clinton won those and won himself a Presidency; his wife was 180 degrees perceived otherwise (as a liberal elitist) and lost them.  

    If he goes back to a more positive message he's got the youth and down-home charm to maybe make some noise.  But this election shouldn't fool anyone... he's much, much further away from being a national name than it might seem.  But in today's social media world, it might not take too long.

    Sure, he couldn't run for president today. Luckily for him, there's a whole primary season for him to build his name. He generated a ton of nationwide buzz on the Left during his run for the senate, and those people will show up to vote for him in the primary and spread the word to those who aren't yet familiar.

  4. 10 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

    Why are repubs so god damn stupid?

    some of them really believe that there’s some nationwide conspiracy to rig all of the outstanding races for the Dems. I’ll admit that Florida seems shady, but what about Georgia? Brian kemp should be investigated and prosecuted.

     

    arizona and California are totally legit. They take forever to count. I think it’s either stupid / uninformed people or just ignorant morons who want something to get angry about.

    It's a page out of the Trumpist's (authoritarian's) playbook. Feed your base a never-ending diet of fear and hate, and always be on the lookout for the next boogeyman.

    • Like 1
  5. 9 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

    Sinema up 28,700

    good for sinema left : 46k

    good for McSally left: 23k

    I’m not a math expert, but wouldn’t McSally have to totally dominate what’s left of Maricopa to win?  Seems unlikely at this point.

    If Sinema goes up 50k from the outstanding votes from the other counties then yes, McSally would have to win the Maricopa leftovers by 25 points to pull even.

    If the next batch drops with numbers more favorable to Sinema than expected, they should call the race in her favor.

  6. 4 minutes ago, Honeysucklerose said:

    Harris county now has a 27 year old female as county judge. Wow! Chalk up another win to Beto

    Ft Bend County judge seat flipped too.

    I was just looking at the local races down there. Ft Bend is blue. Dem sweeps in all judge and clerk positions that were contested.

  7. 5 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

    As disgusted as I am with my home state of Florida, I reserve my ultimate ire for the morally bankrupt and gross voters in Duncan Hunter’s district.

    Dude is a literal thief, under indictment, and ran some of the most racist ads in history.

    Yet they still said “Here! Take my vote!”

    And they make fun of people from the south. Fuck every last one of those people.

    I have family in the CA-50 and I think that, to a person, they all voted for Hunter.

    It's shitty.

  8. 52 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

    She is without question the most effective politician in the House of Representatives.

    She makes John Boehner and Paul Ryan look like amateurs.

    And she outlasted them both.

    All true.

    But yeah, she's old. There will be a succession plan announced and it will hopefully be followed through before the 2020 elections, otherwise some of the newly won seats will be in danger.

  9. 27 minutes ago, Mack Tripper said:


    The Politico article second guessing, before the election, that Beto should have run as a moderate ignores not only the past results in Texas, where moderate milquetoast candidate after candidate have been trounced, but also the current reality, where in the special elections, primaries, and polls, progressives running as unapologetic progressives have had real success.

    This. The fact is that nobody knows how a Democrat can win Texas until one actually does.

    Trump's approval rating hanging at 40% despite him progressively becoming and even bigger piece of shit over the past 20 months demonstrates the folly of attempting to appeal to Republicans. Beto is 100% correct that his path to victory is turning this state from the worst in voter turnout into something better. There are new people who haven't yet chosen a side who need to be targeted.

    Phil Bredesen in TN has as good a shot as Beto, if not better, running as a moderate. But he's already a household name there, so it's apples to oranges.

    I do share the same criticism as many of you about Beto's campaign. Particularly his ad buys in the late summer to early fall months and perceived lack of outreach to latino voters. I took it as a bad sign that he lost so many of the border counties during the primary. Hopefully, he gets a big election day turnout.

    • Like 1
  10. Aaaannnd Jon Ralston predicts Jacky Rosen to win in NV on Tuesday.

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/predictions-for-tuesday

    Quote

    Prediction: Rosen, 48 percent; Heller, 46 percent; others and None of these candidates, 6 percent.

    Spoiler

    Even though the Democratic machine has not built as big of a firewall as in 2012 – 47,000 in Clark County and 23,000 statewide – this is a midterm, and it will be enough. I think.

    This has been a strange fortnight of early voting, with turnout much higher than usual for a non-presidential year and with momentum seeming to build for the Democrats and culminating with a Friday wave of votes. (You can read all of the dynamics here on my blog.)

    But what’s clear is that younger people are voting in higher numbers, that while the president has animated the right as no other Republican can, Trump Fatigue is beginning to settle in the saner corners of the political universe and anger is rising. What’s also quite evident is that Washoe County, which saved Heller in 2012 when he won by 20,000 votes, has changed a lot. Democrats lead there after early voting by almost 2,000 votes. Heller may win Washoe, where Hillary Clinton also won, but not by a lot more than she did (3,000 votes).

     

  11. 3 hours ago, horncyclist said:

    Im fairly optimistic we can make a lot of progress in ending gerrymandering in this next redistricting cycle. Obviously in states with split control this should happen  but even were Dems have the opportunity to gerrymandering, I think they'll be pushed to draw fair districts. There's a lot of overlap between the end gerrymandering crowd and Dems pushing other structural reforms like campaign finance reform. See Beto.

    There are ballot measures meant to address redistricting in four states.

    MI and CO - independent commission for congressional and state leg (all likely to pass)

    UT - semi-independent commission (likely to pass)

    MO - independent demographer draws state leg maps, requires 70% of leg to overrule, also imposes campaign contribution limits

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/forget-about-the-candidates-what-else-is-on-the-ballot-this-week/

    • Like 1
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