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berlinerbaer

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Posts posted by berlinerbaer

  1. On 12/17/2018 at 1:21 PM, Js1 said:

    ME, AZ, CO and NC and get the presidency. 

    Flippability goes from ME >> AZ > NC > CO. Cory Gardner will be a heavy lift with his pro-weed message. Thom Tillis is a junior senator with a weak incumbency advantage. McSally will get a bruising in the 2020 primary and will be headed for another coin flip reelection. Collins likely retires in 2020 and that seat turns blue.

    The OP is correct that everything else is a tough sell for Democrats. TN is fools gold, as is TX most likely. Joni Ernst is one of those tea partiers who benefited from a favorable environment in 2014, so she could be vulnerable against the right candidate.

  2. 3 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

    There has to be some reason for him to appoint her. I can't believe it would have to do with electability. 

    Incumbency gives McSally strength against Kelli Ward, Joe Arpaio, or embarrassing candidate X in a hypothetical 2020 primary. In a tough 2020 environment, the last thing the state and national GOP wants is another shit show primary, especially after the perceived damage it caused in 2018.

    She is going to get primaried anyway and it is going to be hilarious.

    • Like 2
  3. No Chinese company even a quarter the size of Huawei is truly that private. Favors and bribes flow like cheap wine between executives and government officials. The odds are that upper management is rife with the close friends or relatives of politicians at the city or provincial, if not national, level.

    A successful Chinese person is, with few exceptions, connected with power to a degree less commonly found in the US. When someone like this is arrested, it's personal to Beijing.

    • Like 1
  4. 3 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

    Massive new federal study:  Climate change is real and it's going to be devastating:


    https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/


     



     

    On the other hand, some guy named "Vein" produced two photos of a bridge and proved that it's all a hoax, so I haven't made up my mind. 

     

    This is a big deal. It is the first climate report to be released solely within the time of Trump's administration.

    That it was released on Black Friday should tell you that Cheeto and company were worried about too much publicity. 

  5. ^^ Yeah, that.

    33 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

    Mississippi has the highest percentage of African Americans.  37%.   Surprising that republicans still win there so easily.  

    That may give the Dems a high floor, but I read somewhere that the white vote in Mississippi is as inelastic as it gets. It is more rural than Alabama. 

    The Espy game plan is to actively turnout as many AA voters as possible and hope just enough whiteys stay home.

  6. Beto doesn't stand out among other Dems and shouldn't run for president. At least that's the latest hot take from Bill Scher of Politico.

    https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/11/20/beto-orourke-2020-president-campaign-analysis-222639

    tl;dr version:

    • Beto's performance in Texas was nice, but so were that of many other Democrats on Election night. Comparisons to Kyrsten Sinema in AZ, who ran as a centrist rather than a progressive, are made.
    • He hardly moved the needle in rural Texas. At all. There's no reason to expect him to pick off any red states in a 2020 pres run.
    • He may not be ready for prime time, like John Edwards or Marco Rubio, who were both easily primaried.
    • Obama was on the right side of a big issue all along: the Iraq War. It is unlikely Beto has a similar distinguishing view to take advantage of.
    • He should stay in Texas and challenge Cornyn in 2020. Cornyn has among the lowest approval ratings of Pubs in Texas, 28 points lower than Lyin' Ted.
  7. 5 hours ago, Gengs1 said:

    I know the Dems will fuck it up and play nice and not go after trump, they usually pussy out of those types of things 

    This might normally happen, but there are way too many pissed off, foaming at the mouth progressives who will be camping outside their offices from now until Election Day 2020.

    And that Sinema win just blows my mind. That plus the secretary of state race = purple state

  8. 22 minutes ago, OWLVIS said:

    Its bad, it will get worse, all of Texas will suffer. The Judge was the one willing to stand up to Patrick and Bettencourt..and they feared him.

     

    Now they can go continue to be stupid without fear

    So he was the Jeff Flake of the greater Houston area? It's fitting then that both his and Flake's seats will be occupied by Democrats.

    I'd rather stand up to Goeb by giving some Republicans the boot. Flipping 2 state senate seats and 12 house seats will be far more effective than a tongue lashing from Ed Emmett. I welcome a Harris and Fort Bend county purge as part of the deal.

  9. On 11/8/2018 at 2:55 PM, phdhorn said:

    He would have tons of work to do.  He got a lot of media publicity nationally, but most Americans really didn't pay attention to him outside of Texas - he''s not nearly as well known as you'd think.  This is why it's rare for a President to not have been a Senator, governor, or well-known military hero.  Representatives don't nearly have that exposure.  You could probably easily rattle off 30 U.S. Senators, but reps?  I doubt you would know 10 beyond the leadership holders.  That's Beto's problem.  Then you have to get people to support you and warm up to you.  A Senator or Governor already has that network and tons and tons of fundraising ability.  Yeah Beto made a huge bank in Texas, but the great majority of that was from in-state donors (Cruz, on the other hand, having national exposure, had a ton of $$$ from outside of Texas).

    Not saying he couldn't do it, but he'd have to get a lot of things happen for him.  Even a big state like Texas is nothing compared to the problem of getting yourself out there in a national campaign.  The other thing I think he'd have to do is go back to what he did before he was shown as losing, and therefore go a little negative, which honestly isn't a good look for him.  He could be that under-50 "unity" candidate that brings in enough Indies to make differences in the Rust Belt states if he sticks to a populist, working class message.  Clinton won those and won himself a Presidency; his wife was 180 degrees perceived otherwise (as a liberal elitist) and lost them.  

    If he goes back to a more positive message he's got the youth and down-home charm to maybe make some noise.  But this election shouldn't fool anyone... he's much, much further away from being a national name than it might seem.  But in today's social media world, it might not take too long.

    Sure, he couldn't run for president today. Luckily for him, there's a whole primary season for him to build his name. He generated a ton of nationwide buzz on the Left during his run for the senate, and those people will show up to vote for him in the primary and spread the word to those who aren't yet familiar.

  10. 10 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

    Why are repubs so god damn stupid?

    some of them really believe that there’s some nationwide conspiracy to rig all of the outstanding races for the Dems. I’ll admit that Florida seems shady, but what about Georgia? Brian kemp should be investigated and prosecuted.

     

    arizona and California are totally legit. They take forever to count. I think it’s either stupid / uninformed people or just ignorant morons who want something to get angry about.

    It's a page out of the Trumpist's (authoritarian's) playbook. Feed your base a never-ending diet of fear and hate, and always be on the lookout for the next boogeyman.

    • Like 1
  11. 9 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

    Sinema up 28,700

    good for sinema left : 46k

    good for McSally left: 23k

    I’m not a math expert, but wouldn’t McSally have to totally dominate what’s left of Maricopa to win?  Seems unlikely at this point.

    If Sinema goes up 50k from the outstanding votes from the other counties then yes, McSally would have to win the Maricopa leftovers by 25 points to pull even.

    If the next batch drops with numbers more favorable to Sinema than expected, they should call the race in her favor.

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