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berlinerbaer

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Posts posted by berlinerbaer

  1. 12 minutes ago, F250 said:

    This, she is terrible at campaigning. It was a strategic mistake to run in the same lane as Bernie which forced her to hop over to the Biden lane after falling behind and then swerve back into the Bernie lane when necessary. The swerving came off as very inauthentic which I don't think she is, she probably got a lot of bad advice. It was also a mistake to partner with Castro because that was straight up pandering and obviously didn't pay off. She should have stalked Biden and waited for his eventual collapse like Pete did.

    She should have taken a similar path as Yang and Inslee and run as a single-issue candidate. But unlike those two, she is so good at that one issue, anti-corruption in her case, that she would have gone far into the primary just hammering on that. Instead, she felt the need to have a plan for everything and become a "total" candidate. I agree that getting caught up in Bernie's wheelhouse, M4A, really cost her.

    She was my choice, then I started to waver 50/50 with Bernie. Wednesday night's debate put me back on her side (she is soooo good speaking truth to power) but Bernie's cleanup in Nevada makes me think I should go full bro. I'm not sure what I'm going to do.

  2. 1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

    On my DVR..... still need to watch it.

    Dude. Get off of Surly, take a bathroom break, grab a beer, and watch that motherfucker.

     

    52 minutes ago, troph said:

    Of course we are but you knew that was coming. These bros will rub it in everyone’s face. No coalition building just the ultra left approach that the ultra right approach takes.

    The scary part is the anyone but Trump vote might make it look like a landslide mandate and then watch out. These fellas will crow and push everyone aside while they decide it’s their turn to pillage and burn it down their way.

    Ugh.

     

    You give the Bernie Bros way too much credit. Sanders strikes me as someone with integrity who won't attempt to appease the worst of his supporters, unlike the current stain on the White House.

     

    1 minute ago, GSU&UT said:

    To be clear, Ilhan Omar is a Muslim woman of color and you think that it's stupid to pick her as VP because she's too alienating? She is the only one who had the damn guts to stand up to Elliot Abrams for the massacres he helped orchestrate (e.g. El Mozote massacre) after he was freaking revived from the dead to deal with Venezuela. She, at least in my opinion, would be one of the best Vice Presidents we've ever had as a country to truly represent what the US's population really is.

    Like I'm not sure of how familiar you are with her as a progressive representative, but anyone who is that Islamophobic isn't going to vote Democrat. If we want to argue about what she's done in terms of actual work then that's fine but it doesn't seem to me that you're suggesting this is dumb because she's inexperienced.

    I'm not sure he should choose any of the young progressives as a running mate. It won't be a moderate, but he should pick someone to help build out the coalition. 

    I like the idea of a woman of color sitting in the ideological middle of the party. Like Kamala or Stacey Abrams.

  3. 4 hours ago, gmr548 said:
    4 hours ago, Pasken said:
    This could help Cristina cement a place in the dem runoff.

    I'm probably going to vote for her. I may flip to Hegar in the runoff if I think she has a significantly better chance of actually winning, but as it stands now I'm pretty sure it's an L regardless. With that in mind I'd prefer the progressive candidate to stay in it it and keep laying groundwork.

    You've pretty much described me. I'll likely vote Hegar in the runoff as well, but I want to see a statewide match-up between a progressive and a moderate Dem, so I'll vote for Tzintzun this go around.

    The runoff will gauge just how remote Bernie's prospects are for flipping this state in the general or, conversely, make me wish we had nominated him if we instead go with Bloomie.

  4. On 2/19/2020 at 1:27 PM, Calihorn said:

     

    Real smart of Ducey to pick the lady who already lost a senate race as a replacement.

    Ducey had no choice. The Arizona GOP doesn't have much of a bench anymore. It's not at all like Texas. For a decade after the Dems win their first statewide seat in TX, I expect the GOP to still contest heavily and even win the majority of statewide offices. I wouldn't count on Texas becoming a legitimate blue state, but will instead move to purple and stay there for the foreseeable future, like Florida and North Carolina. One reason is because of the large number of quality candidates either currently in lower offices or waiting to run. This will make TX a swing state long after the demographics would suggest it should be blue.

    Arizona is different. McSally was appointed because the alternatives were Kelli Ward or the convict former sheriff. The only sure win the GOP has for Senate is Ducey himself if he chooses to run after his governor term limits expire. The GOP is in real trouble in Arizona, so that state may go straight from red to blue without lingering at purple for more than a couple of cycles, much like Colorado and Virginia have done.

     

     

     

  5. 15 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

    Bloomberg is a good stand-in for Trump.   

    This is not true, unfortunately.

     

    48 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

    See the source image

    We have yet to see a poll that wasn't conducted before the most recent debate. Might be wishful thinking, but I think Bloomie's numbers are going to suffer to the benefit of Biden.

    And that Bugs Bunny gif gets me every time

  6. 18 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

    Warren lost me for a bit there, but every time I sit and decide who I’m in favor of, she keeps coming up first for me. I think she would be a fantastic president. I’m waiting for the Nevada results before I vote, but she’s my #1 so far. 

    I haven't voted yet for the same reason: Nevada. But I'm coming around to not caring about Nevada, mostly because any post-debate bump in favor of Warren won't show up. Most Nevadans had already voted by Wednesday night.

    I guess it depends on your number 2. I'm looking for polling showing Liz approaching viability in Texas. If not, I might vote Bernie to help push him over.

  7. 13 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

    Wuhan building a 3,000 bed hospital by next Tuesday.   Nothingtoseehere.gif

    More fatal to men than women

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/18/coronavirus-is-more-fatal-in-men-than-women-major-study-suggests.html

     

    Many Chinese men smoke whereas few Chinese women do.

     

    12 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

    what's the thinking for why the mortality rate in hubei is so much higher than the rest of the world?  initially i was thinking it was because they didn't initially what they were dealing with so they couldn't provide proper care, but that idea's disproved since the mortality rate's been the same in hubei ever since they've started throwing more resources at the problem.  pollution and air particulates adding to the problem?  but hubei's not any more polluted than other parts of china.  

    This can be best explained if the actual number of infected in Hubei is higher than being reported. Local healthcare is overwhelmed so lots of people with milder symptoms won't get tested.

    • Like 1
  8. 14 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

    Who do you want on your side in the general election? An army of assholes that will troll people incessantly or a bunch of mushy supporters that are okay with any centrist canddiate?

    Truth. Those guys may be assholes, but they'd be our assholes.

    They are the only group of supporters who could go up against the forthcoming Russian troll/bot army online.

  9. 50 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

    That’s before six months of Trump and the Republicans literally screaming about socialism.

    Oh come on.

    Mayor Pete said it himself. Who cares what the Rs think? If a moderate wins the nomination, they'll call him/her a socialist. If a progressive wins, ditto.

    They screamed socialism from the rooftops in 2018 and it didn't change that election from being a good one for the Ds.

    The boy who cried wolf, yada yada...

     

    36 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

    I thought previous primaries showed that Iowa and New Hampshire really don’t matter much.

    Obama won Iowa in 2008. Hillary won Iowa (barely) in 2016.

    New Hampshire is less predictive for the Ds but has been nails for the Rs.

    • Like 2
  10. The state of Iowa and the caucus process itself is tailor made for Pete. No close seconds... he needs to place first at the end of counting or he's in some real trouble going forward. It's all uphill from here.

    For opposite reasons, Biden's demise is being greatly exaggerated. He should still be the favorite to win the nomination. Unfortunately for him, this result doesn't make him look good as the eventual nominee. A fourth place finish in IA shouldn't give anyone confidence that he can win back the Midwest/Rust Belt.

    I don't buy arguments that this was a disappointing night for Bernie. The progressive vote is being split between him and Warren, and he should do even better than Liz in states that aren't so white. I expect him to win once the vote is fully counted. Only haters can see any downside in placing first against this crowded a field.

    As for Liz, I was disappointed at first but I'm coming around to thinking the night was a decent showing for her. She should get a bump from the last third left to count.

    Klob, Yang, and the others who campaigned in Iowa should drop out. It's a four person race, with Bloomberg replacing Pete by Super Tuesday.

  11. Yang might pardon Trump if elected

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/02/pardon-trump-andrew-yang-2020-110331

    Quote

    “If you look at history around the world, it's a very, very nasty pattern that developing countries have fallen into, where a new president ends up throwing the president before them in jail,” Yang said on ABC’s “This Week.”

    “That pattern unfortunately makes it very hard for any party to govern sustainably moving forward with a sense of unity among their people,” he continued. “And so to me, America should try to avoid that pattern if at all possible.”

    In 1974, President Gerald Ford pardoned his predecessor, Richard Nixon, after he resigned amid the Watergate scandal. “It could go on and on and on, or someone must write the end to it. I have concluded that only I can do that, and if I can, I must,” Ford said in September 1974.

     

  12. Yang might pardon Trump if elected

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/02/pardon-trump-andrew-yang-2020-110331

    Quote

    “If you look at history around the world, it's a very, very nasty pattern that developing countries have fallen into, where a new president ends up throwing the president before them in jail,” Yang said on ABC’s “This Week.”

    “That pattern unfortunately makes it very hard for any party to govern sustainably moving forward with a sense of unity among their people,” he continued. “And so to me, America should try to avoid that pattern if at all possible.”

    In 1974, President Gerald Ford pardoned his predecessor, Richard Nixon, after he resigned amid the Watergate scandal. “It could go on and on and on, or someone must write the end to it. I have concluded that only I can do that, and if I can, I must,” Ford said in September 1974.

     

  13. Something worth pointing out, as much of the hand-wringing on this page over immigration is from folks who lean left: most newly arriving Chinese are conservative.

    Unlike in past decades, few are political or economic refugees. They tend to have money, which they gained in a society with rampant nepotism and inequality. They'll naturally gravitate to similar entities, i.e. Trump and the GOP.

    That said, keep bringing them in. Their kids will grow up to be just as liberal as most other Asian-Americans.

     

  14. On 1/27/2020 at 8:27 PM, Message Board User said:

    This tweet shows the 22 House seats the Democrats are targeting to flip the House - not surprising that most are around Houston & DFW.

    https://twitter.com/KarinaKling/status/1221848673396625408

     

    Beto won in 9 districts that ended up electing a Republican state representative in 2018. 

    1) That was a lot of ticket splitting.

    2) Goddamn Ted Cruz is unpopular. I mean, holy shit. I can't fathom he actually runs for reelection in 2024. White House or bust for him, I think.

    3) It's going to be hard to claw away the 10 seats needed to win the State House, if Beto only managed to win in 9 of them. I'm trying not to get my hopes up.

     

  15. 6 hours ago, gecko said:

    I probably have it....or will get it.  I've been flying constantly since first of the year.  The number of sick MF'ers out there sneezing and coughing all over the airplanes is ridiculous.  Here's an idea.....if you're f'ing sick, why don't you stay home.....

    I envy the man who can just eat the cost of his plane ticket like it's nothing.

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