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berlinerbaer

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Posts posted by berlinerbaer

  1. (Knock-knock)

    (30-something frazzled female answers)

    Hi _____ . I'm volunteering for the Beto O'Rourke campaign for US Senate! Have you gotten a chance to vote by any chance?

    No, but I'm going to --- so I'm watching TV and Ted Cruz is everywhere! Where are the Beto ads?! Saying he's for open borders, and ... it's just non-stop Cruz with his LIES!! What is the campaign doing with 38 million dollars?!

    So... you said you are going to vote. When do --

    You all are going to Lose! Even Lizzie Pannil Fletcher is all over the TV. Where is Beto? Cruz is such an easy target! Talk about ____ ! (can't remember)

    I think I saw that ad. (might have been a little fib)

    Well I didn't!

    What channels are you watching?

    Oh, ESPN... football, and HGTV. Well, I'm glad I didn't give any more money than I did because you all are going to lose!

    So you are going to-

    No - um, see ya (Shuts door abruptly)

     

    ***

    She makes a good point, but who under 65 watches HGTV?

     

  2. 2 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

    FWIW, Congress has always expelled members convicted of a felony. But I get you’re larger point.

    The Pubs would rather the seat be empty than filled with a Dem. Their voters know that too.

    Another R put in his place won't be a real incumbent and will be vulnerable in 2020.

  3. 1 hour ago, slorch said:

    Do you work 7 days per week? For 14 days in a row... with the exact same shift?  With no lunch break?

    They also extend hours on the 2nd week.

    It seems to me, some of the detractors are just looking for a reason to poo-poo the system.

    I believe those hours are being extended this week, which is good. The theme of the thread had evolved into reading the tea leaves about voting patterns so far. I wanted to throw this caveat out there as it is probably affecting those numbers.

    Expect more young voters casting ballots this weekend and next week.

  4. 16 hours ago, slorch said:

    I overheard the proctor telling the ( Beto) new voters how to use the voting machines.  He emphasized that Montgomery County machines had English and Spanish as available languages.  He said his partners in Harris County had 7.

    I'm cool with that, but why would it be different?

    As for hours and the San Marcos crap, our hours of availability are 8-5 all this week and then 12-5 on Sunday, followed by 7-7 all next week.

    I was pleasantly surprised by the available hours.

    I have to disagree about the 8-5 hours. They're crap if you are a working person, especially one with kids who need to be dropped off and picked up from school or daycare. That's asking many to cut work short by an hour or more.

    Naturally, this impacts certain demographics (younger voters) more than others, and thins may account for some of the voting patters we've seen so far.

  5. Her cozying up to Trump following his election was a fatal error for any future presidential run. I can see Dotus tweeting after an early televised debate "I've always admired Tulsi Gabbard! A very nice woman but the rest of the Dems treat her so badly! Sad!" and that will be the end of that.

    I agree that she could consider switching parties if the White House is her true aspiration.

    • Like 1
  6. 7 hours ago, Dnaguy said:

    Real interaction from mid 2010's. 

    Woman working for title company during closing: "I see you're not moving to New Territory. Good"

    Me and wife: "It wasn't for us. Why do you say that?"

    Woman working for title company during closing: "It seems to be all our closings latetly. New Terriority is very hot... or as I like to call it, New Dehli." [winks]

    Me and wife: [both turn to one another and raise eyebrows]

     

    New territory isn't that bad. It's a middle-aged (mid 90's) neighborhood by Sugar Land standards with a sizable population of white Boomer empty-nesters and a sprinkling of olds. My precinct in the northeast of NT went for Trump by 6 points, IIRC. It's certainly diverse, though.

    You're thinking of paTelfair, a real Sri Kulkarni stronghold. Drive through and notice the yard signs. I put them there myself. With permission, of course.

     

    3 hours ago, BrickHorn said:

    Indians are not uniformly Dem.  Far from it.  Many are pro-business / gimme-my-taxes-and-fuck-everyone-else type conservatives.  And a not-insignificant slice are flat-out Islamophobes who vote for whichever party promises to oppress Muslims.  (So, guess who they align with?)

    Correct, but Indian Americans break hard for their guy, if they happen to have one in the race. They do. Kulkarni will win the IA vote by 70 points, at minimum.

    He's been all over the ethnic south and east Asian radio and TV stations giving interviews and has interviews and ad buys in all the Asian language and English language Asian cultural rags around town. He counts Hindi and Chinese among the 6 languages he speaks. The dude isn't shy about grabbing that Asian American vote.

    He'll need the big turnout of minorities and professionals in Fort Bend to offset what will likely be tough sledding in Brazoria County, Shadow Creek Ranch aside.

    If, IF he can pull it off next month, the seat will be his until he gets bored with it. He's as likely to win as Beto, if not moreso.

    • Like 1
  7. More maths.

    A canvassing session is 50 doors. So that's been 11,600 separate sessions, probably by around 3 to 4 thousand volunteers statewide. That is only GOTV since 10/13, and doesn't include the voter ID phase which had gone on for about 9 months prior.

    • Like 1
  8. Beto campaign GOTV numbers, weekend wrap-up edition.

    580,339 doors knocked on as of Monday morning. Over 100k knocked on yesterday alone. 

    FYI, those are total knocks. In my experience, 50 to 70% aren't home or refuse. In most of those cases flyers are dropped off at the door. So that's at least 175,000 actual conversations held and up to 400,000 flyers handed out.

    We should be at 800k by next weekend and over 1 million after next weekend. My guess is that 1.8 million total doors knocked will be the final number by 11/5, well short of the 4.4M goal but an unprecedented effort in the state of Texas regardless.

    • Like 4
  9. 2 hours ago, troph said:

    Beto will have the best GOTV machine Texas Democrats have had in my 25 years of being of voting age. That’s a fact. It will be a GOAT effort and outcome. The question is will it be enough - and if it isn’t, I’ll be in a hole for a while. And bc of that I’ll admit I’m bracing myself for the loss.

     

    2 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

    If this isn't enough, nothing will be.  I'll go straight to the ledge and enjoy a scotch.

    You both need to stop fretting and pick up the phone and make some calls, or head to your nearest campaign office and start knocking on doors. Then, you need to get ready to do it all over again two years from now. 

    Beto is one of the better ones, for sure, but lots of Dems across the country are raising shitloads of money and thousands of people are volunteering for the first time ever.

    Trump and the rest of the GOP are the real motivators.

    • Like 1
  10. Beto GOTV as of midday Saturday: 392,000+ doors knocked on statewide since last weekend . That's cool, but only 9% of their goal of 4.46 million knocks by election day. A lofty goal, but not impossible.

    Fort bend HQ has cell phones to give to block walkers if they don't have their own. Chargers as well.

    Bottom line: Beto doesn't need your money anymore. He needs your time.

    GOTV map: https://win.betofortexas.com

    • Like 1
  11. 2 hours ago, Celery Man said:

    Not sure about most, but it's certainly not simple math.  It's a diverse category, maybe more so in Texas than in some other places.

    The state-to-state variance of Hispanics politically is particularly striking. There's California, where they're out for blood against the Rs, who have fucked with them once too many. Then there are the Cubans in Florida, hypocritically staunchly anti-immigration. Then there's Texas. 

  12. 3 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

    I don't think I'll ever vote for a Republican again.

    This.

    2 hours ago, Hammock said:

    Economy is doing well and no war.

    Well I'm glad to hear that we've finally pulled out of Afganistan and are no longer killing Yemenis alongside the Saudis. 

    • Like 1
  13. 10 hours ago, lemonlime said:

    Maybe it's that Bredeson came out in favor of Kavanaugh's confirmation?  IMO, still doesn't explain a 10 point swing.  But if you're say a republican or independent woman on the fence, and you see that the dem is going to vote the same way as Blackburn, you gotta be thinking to yourself I might as well vote for Blackburn.

    Throw out the Sienna College/NYT poll, as it's clearly an outlier. Now it's a more manageable 5 point swing that can be explained by his Kav endorsement.

    I think voters, especially moderates, want to see contrast in candidates, so I think you're reasoning is correct. It has been reported that many volunteers left his campaign following his announcement. He can't afford to lose any door-knockers if he wants to attract these people. I wouldn't be surprised either if some liberals or progressives were turned off by his support for Kav and plan on staying home.

    It was a mistake. I hope future Dems running in Red Country take heart and learn from his error.

  14. 5 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

    Did Ted Cruz write these questions?

    Are you for Open Borders?

    What’s the deal with your weird first name? 

     

    4 hours ago, FondrenRoad said:

    Most of these questioners seem like Cruz plants except the last one. Beto is doing well with them, but they are a waste of time. 

    Maybe. Then again, good answers to these questions could help sway undecided voters or even the rare Cruz lean. Keep in mind that Pinocchio isn't there for a rebuttal.

    The Cruz campaign already screwed up in turning a debate into a nationally televised town hall. If they did plant any of these questions, then they are even bigger idiots than I thought.

  15. 9 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

    Thankfully after the Kavanaugh shit show, most experts still think Dems will pick up between 20-40 seats in the house.

    538 gives the Dems about an 80% chance of control. The map looks good on cook political report too. Election Day is still about 3 weeks away so some of the Kavanaugh buzz should fade for repubs. I’m not worried about dem enthusiasm, we’ve been pissed and waiting on this election for 2 years.

    The Pubs' message is nationalized. "Supreme Court, Pelosi, George Soros, MS-13, grwahrrr!" This is great for them for the highest level races (Senate) but declines precipitously in effectiveness as you go down-ballot. Even at the Congressional level, more targeted approaches that factor in local politics should hopefully get a lot of Dems elected. Let's cross our fingers that it also pays dividends further down ballot in state and local-level races. 

     

    2 hours ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

    I agree with you, I mean even up this thread there are posts about how FoxNews has even gotten bored with Trump rallies. As Trump will have to engage in crazier and crazier antics to get his attention (Exhibit A: Kanye West having a manic moment in the White House), it's unsustainable. It's like a drug user. You can get high at first off a little bit but after a while you need more and more and more and keep chasing the dragon.

    I agree with your scenario, but I don't think this will be bad for Trump. Evidence points to Trump doing better in the polls the more he can stay out of the news. The Kavanaugh hearing and passage of the tax cuts are really the only events of his presidency where he saw a bump in the polls during and following their occurrence. Everything else that has come in the news cycle has hurt him. Independents are driving his approval rating now that the D's and R's are all dug in.

    I'll go a step further. If his shit-show rallies become passe, they will be yet another of his worst traits to be normalized within American politics. That's bad for us all. If he gets reelected, this and the larger subject of voter fatigue would have been a big reason why, despite any problems it causes with Republicans down-ballot.

  16. 1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

    Damn. Thought Cal was getting things together under Wilcox. That's a bad loss for them. Good for UCLA though. UC System champs!

    I thought the hire of Beau Baldwin as OC was a slam dunk. Instead, it has been astonishingly disappointing so far.

    It's been the play of the defense that has kept me from including Wilcox in that opinion. 

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