Jump to content

berlinerbaer

Legacy Members
  • Posts

    832
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by berlinerbaer

  1. On 1/14/2019 at 12:29 PM, Hugo Stiglitz said:

    So many red flags.  She will run for President and get a nice gig on Fox News afterwards as the voice on "the Left". 

    Punctuation added

    • Like 1
  2. 4 hours ago, burntorangebongos said:

    The investigations that they have that will actually not be sabotaged by house Rs will inform them on when to start the impeachment process. I don't think they should wait for the Mueller report and they won't have to with the information that they can dig up on the motherfucker. On Emoluments alone, that will have people howling to impeach. There are so many ways to go that I think they need to pick the lowest hanging fruit that is most digestible for the public to consume and understand. I think impeachment needs to arise out of what they uncover in the committee hearings. If shit is as bad as it appears to be, Pelosi will be shot if she doesn't start the process then.

    But I agree, they shouldn't wait on the Mueller report necessarily. As you point out, that could be folly.

    I agree with most of this. Clearly, House investigations need to begin in earnest on multiple fronts, in multiple committees, with Russia being the focus of only one or two of them. All of the other avenues toward eventual impeachment, such as emoluments or obstruction, can be handled separately from the House Russia investigation. The Dems need to start messaging that these other investigations are important in their own right and fight back against the media narrative that it's all Russia, Russia, Russia. This way, there is enough dirt on Trump to hurt him politically in case Mueller lets him off the hook re. collusion or other serious activities.

    Where I differ is I would hold off on impeachment until one of two events occurs: 1) the Mueller report comes out and is reasonably serious or 2) further obstruction occurs by Trump or the GOP, such as by effectively torpedoing the Mueller investigation or through Trump pardoning someone from his inner circle. If the Mueller probe does not reveal Russia collusion but instead widespread corruption, this would qualify as impeachable.

    Bottom line, the Dems need to keep their eye on the prize: an electoral blowout in 2020. I do not think impeachment proceedings are necessary between now and then for the Democratic base to remain fired up and to keep independents on their side of the fence. By resisting Trump legislatively, of course, as well as through multiple Congressional investigations, the Dems can keep the heat on and should be in good shape.

    I'll go on to add, perhaps controversially, that I don't want Trump removed from office before the next election. I'll risk the small existential threat to democracy life as we know it to ensure that further damage is done to him and the GOP in the minds of as many American voters as possible. I'll happily let him keep fucking around for two years if it means total Democratic control of the executive and the legislature for 2021.

    • Like 1
  3. 12 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

    Pat Roberts gonna retire.  Maybe Kobach can run for that too and Ds can pick up one more. 

    Maybe, but the Senate is a different ballgame than a statehouse. Because SC justices.

  4. On 12/17/2018 at 1:21 PM, Js1 said:

    ME, AZ, CO and NC and get the presidency. 

    Flippability goes from ME >> AZ > NC > CO. Cory Gardner will be a heavy lift with his pro-weed message. Thom Tillis is a junior senator with a weak incumbency advantage. McSally will get a bruising in the 2020 primary and will be headed for another coin flip reelection. Collins likely retires in 2020 and that seat turns blue.

    The OP is correct that everything else is a tough sell for Democrats. TN is fools gold, as is TX most likely. Joni Ernst is one of those tea partiers who benefited from a favorable environment in 2014, so she could be vulnerable against the right candidate.

  5. 3 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

    There has to be some reason for him to appoint her. I can't believe it would have to do with electability. 

    Incumbency gives McSally strength against Kelli Ward, Joe Arpaio, or embarrassing candidate X in a hypothetical 2020 primary. In a tough 2020 environment, the last thing the state and national GOP wants is another shit show primary, especially after the perceived damage it caused in 2018.

    She is going to get primaried anyway and it is going to be hilarious.

    • Like 2
  6. No Chinese company even a quarter the size of Huawei is truly that private. Favors and bribes flow like cheap wine between executives and government officials. The odds are that upper management is rife with the close friends or relatives of politicians at the city or provincial, if not national, level.

    A successful Chinese person is, with few exceptions, connected with power to a degree less commonly found in the US. When someone like this is arrested, it's personal to Beijing.

    • Like 1
  7. 3 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

    Massive new federal study:  Climate change is real and it's going to be devastating:


    https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/


     



     

    On the other hand, some guy named "Vein" produced two photos of a bridge and proved that it's all a hoax, so I haven't made up my mind. 

     

    This is a big deal. It is the first climate report to be released solely within the time of Trump's administration.

    That it was released on Black Friday should tell you that Cheeto and company were worried about too much publicity. 

  8. ^^ Yeah, that.

    33 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

    Mississippi has the highest percentage of African Americans.  37%.   Surprising that republicans still win there so easily.  

    That may give the Dems a high floor, but I read somewhere that the white vote in Mississippi is as inelastic as it gets. It is more rural than Alabama. 

    The Espy game plan is to actively turnout as many AA voters as possible and hope just enough whiteys stay home.

  9. Beto doesn't stand out among other Dems and shouldn't run for president. At least that's the latest hot take from Bill Scher of Politico.

    https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/11/20/beto-orourke-2020-president-campaign-analysis-222639

    tl;dr version:

    • Beto's performance in Texas was nice, but so were that of many other Democrats on Election night. Comparisons to Kyrsten Sinema in AZ, who ran as a centrist rather than a progressive, are made.
    • He hardly moved the needle in rural Texas. At all. There's no reason to expect him to pick off any red states in a 2020 pres run.
    • He may not be ready for prime time, like John Edwards or Marco Rubio, who were both easily primaried.
    • Obama was on the right side of a big issue all along: the Iraq War. It is unlikely Beto has a similar distinguishing view to take advantage of.
    • He should stay in Texas and challenge Cornyn in 2020. Cornyn has among the lowest approval ratings of Pubs in Texas, 28 points lower than Lyin' Ted.
  10. 5 hours ago, Gengs1 said:

    I know the Dems will fuck it up and play nice and not go after trump, they usually pussy out of those types of things 

    This might normally happen, but there are way too many pissed off, foaming at the mouth progressives who will be camping outside their offices from now until Election Day 2020.

    And that Sinema win just blows my mind. That plus the secretary of state race = purple state

×
×
  • Create New...