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berlinerbaer

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Posts posted by berlinerbaer

  1. On 10/12/2018 at 6:38 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

    Good for Waller doing the right thing when the students were just following the rules as they were told.  Like anyone govt workers can make mistakes and you shouldn’t penalize voters because of a mistake. 

    Let's not give Waller County too much credit. Better than the alternative, for sure, but it really took the weight of two nearby congresspersons as well as a Rachel Maddow expose to get this corrected?

  2. The Houston Chronicle just threw its support behind Sri Kulkarni in TX-22. My my, how times have changed. Pete Olson used to be the kind of business-friendly Republican that the Chron would have endorsed back in February under a more normal political environment. (That's the breaks when you and your ilk sign a petition to give the Dotard the Nobel Peace Prize over the NK photo op.)

    I talked to one of the Kulkarni campaign heads about polling, or the lack thereof, in the district. He acknowledged that its been harder to find volunteers in Brazoria County, which is where the election could be lost, but their feelers indicated they had the lead in Fort Bend County and that the race should be considered a toss-up.

    Just another idea if you're looking to throw another $25 with Act Blue to a campaign that isn't taking PAC money in a district that may be in play. 

  3. 5 hours ago, Caddox said:

    Question for dems- does it bother you that Beto is attracting money away from other campaigns nationally, even though he’s highly likely to lose?

    Beto's giant haul this quarter amounted to not even fifty bucks from over 800 thousand different donors. For the cost of a couple of movie tickets, those same people can go donate for someone else. Surely that has to be easier than being the GOP and having to knock on the door of some mega-donor and grovel for another $50 million.

  4. Round one of Beto's GOTV effort begins this weekend. They want to knock on over 100,000 doors in two days and make an equal number of phone calls. It would be informative to check where things stand in the polls to see if each campaigns' GOTV effort has any effect as we get closer to election day. Ultimately, comparison between the polls leading up to election day and the actual election result could give us some idea of what kind of impact GOTV has in Texas. Right now:

    RCP polling average = Cruz +7.0

    538 adjusted polls = Cruz +5.6%

    538 "classic" forecast = Cruz +4.9%

  5. 45 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

    I'm in for Beto for a couple hundred.  That money wasn't going anywhere else.   I'm sure some Beto money would have ended up in other campaigns but it's impossible to determine the amounts.  Same for Cruz.  Did the PACs spend their millions on Cruz that were meant potentially for Heller, or was a money given to them specifically for Cruz.  We don't know.

    I gave only to the democratic US Senator, US House, and TX House candidates running in my respective state and districts.

    If someone else wants to throw money at candidates outside of their state or district, more power to them. I don't want to be that kind of player, yet.

  6. 1 hour ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

    Not completely germane, but reminded of the ground campaign canvassing. 

    A young, white, male, nerdy/hipster looking dude rang my doorbell the other night and was canvassing for a guy named Colin Allred. I'd never heard of the guy, didn't know him from Adam, and no idea if he was R or D, but the guy basically said "canvassing for Colin Allred, have you heard of him?" I said no, he said oh okay, well you can look him up and i hope you vote for him bye.

    lol, either he figured he needed to move on because I had no idea who his guy was and I was a waste of space or he was lazy/shy.

    That's what flyers are for. I went knocking for Sri Kulkarni for TX-22 on Sunday and everyone at least took a flyer, even if they said they weren't voting. 

    Three weeks ago I canvassed for Beto and they did pins and stickers but told me to go easy on the flyers because they're expensive. You fuckers better keep donating!

    Good story, though. I've only gone canvassing these two times in my whole life and I can at least say I'm better than this Allred guy. Some people are "in a hurry" but even the non-voters will talk to you if you pry a little. The anti-PAC money thing is a really good icebreaker.

    Seriously, though. There are a ton of first time door-knockers like myself walking around out there.

    • Like 2
  7. 3 minutes ago, Shmitty said:

    I knew all along this season they were overrated.   David Shaw has done quite well off riding Harbaughs coattails and stringing along his success.  

    As much as I'd like to agree with you, I can't. Jimmy was 8 years ago.

  8. The polls lag behind reality by a week or so, so we won't know what effect the confirmation has had until early-middle of next week. That also means that, closing in on election day, things won't be as bad as the polls would suggest, assuming some sort of reversion to the mean.

    We'll see Trump's approval "peak" at around 43%, which seems to be his ceiling post-inauguration.

  9. 1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

    Maybe, but to a much lesser extent. He's pro-life.

    There's also the whole indicting a sitting president thing on which BK, and only BK, has stated his opinion. I recall Flake grilling him on this specifically during the hearing, as well as the broader Russia investigation. I don't recall Flake signaling he was satisfied with what BK had said.

    Sexual assault is one thing, but we've all heard a multitude of other reasons why this dude shouldn't be on the supreme court, particularly propping up a president under criminal investigation.

    Strange that sexual assault still matters at all to the GOP, when all of those other red flags didn't mean shit (except maybe to Flake).

  10. 1 hour ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

    What I meant was he was considered a champion debater at one point (Princeton, I think) and more importantly he’s not unfamiliar to speaking under the brightest of lights and National stages (as well as someone who has argued before Supreme Court). He is a lot of things, but a shakey-dog voice and a little bit nervous on the national stage he is not....much less a second tier college in dallas covered by the C-team media. That was my only point as I agree Trump killed Cruz (everybody really) in debates.

    the skateboarding and air drumming and boyish good looks is cool, but when paired with a weaker stage presence and rambling answers, also comes off a bit green which can help (outsider, boyish charm, etc) or hurt (looks like a boy playing a mans game, etc.)

    I agree Beto needs to come up with some more one-liners.

    "True to form" was a hell of a start.

  11. 21 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

    I would love to know Ted’s internal polling. Watching some of it again, he was way too predictable, and debated like he was losing. 

    Ted has the numbers advantage, so his strategy is to play it safe. Considering who is registered and who generally shows up to vote, he gets to be his usual, shitty self. The base is all that counts and everyone else can fuck right off. 

    Beto knows he only wins by appealing to as many different types of people as possible. Mission accomplished, although his task is still daunting.

    Overall, I give Beto the nod, since he gains name recognition just by being on the tube or the radio, and name recognition is what he's still lacking.

    • Like 2
  12. 10 hours ago, Lobo said:

    any estimates on projected turnout for this general election for U.S. Senate in Texas?  Mid-term years have hovered in mid-4mm range.  I'm sure every Democrat the anti-Trump swell will bring out 10 million Texans.  But realistically, I'm not seeing any more than 5mm, tops.  Any other projections out there to share?  

    If it's holding at 4%, and just assume it's that and not within the bandwidth or margin of error.  And you get 5,000,000 turnout.  200,000 votes swings the election. 

    Let's get Dikeman 200,000.  A Libertarian in this state, even in mid-terms gets 100,000+.  Nevermind the frustration with Cruz and the GOP right now that many of us have who would never vote for a Democrat for U.S. Senate at this juncture.  

    Dikeman is the focus, not the Beto yard-signs  

    There are 5.5 million names in the Democratic Party VAN. That's the number of voters the GOTV campaign is going to attempt to reach in the month before the election. Likely voters might constitute only about half of that number. So if total turnout is ~5 million as you say, Beto wins this thing going away if even a small fraction of the intended GOTV targets wind up at the polls. Realistic turnout will be in the 7 million range, approaching 2008 numbers, including more Republican voters than normal.

    https://betofortexas.com/plan/?source=texting

    Quote

    There are about 5.5 million voters who we believe are very likely to vote for Beto if they vote but who might not vote unless we contact them. Ideally, we want to contact them to make sure they do.

    We call this list of voters who we think support Beto but might not vote if we don’t talk to them our “GOTV universe” – that just means a list of people who we want to follow up with during the GOTV phase of the campaign.

    We’ll be fine tuning that universe up until the very end, so the numbers will change. But they’re pretty accurate right now, and we will definitely be reaching out to millions of people during GOTV.

    The Texas Democratic Party gives candidates access to a database of voter records. That database currently contains 3.5 million cell phone numbers and about 3.2 million landline phone numbers associated with 5.5 million voters that we want to contact. So, if each texting volunteer sends 500 texts per volunteer shift and each calling volunteer calls for two straight hours per shift, we’d need to fill about 7,000 texting shifts and 11,250 calling shifts to call and text everyone once.

    So, no, 200,000 libertarians are not the focus, nor should they be.

    I was on a organizing conference call this past Saturday (I think by mistake) with a couple hundred new volunteers, mostly from out of state. About half planned on flying to Texas in the few weeks before the election to block walk (no shit) and much of the rest planned on phone banking. Maybe most of them don't show up, but we could be in the midst of a historic GOTV effort starting in October.

    If the Quinnipiac poll tomorrow shows a tie or a small Beto lead for the first time then the sharks will smell blood in the water.

  13. On 9/15/2018 at 6:31 PM, Disco Missile said:

    Thank aTm for that. SEC never had a path into Texas until those fuckers sold out

    There are lots of LSU fans in the greater Houston area, and that isn't because of aggy.

  14. 5 hours ago, Lhorn said:

    I'm getting the feeling Chip will never come close to replicating Oregon.  His stint in the NFL didn't do anything to suggest he can do it again.

     

    Good for Tedford.  Cal got to thinking they deserved to be a ranked team and lost patience with him.  Also had some health problems I hear.  He's performed a minor miracle in turning around that program.

    Oregon improved almost immediately when he started as OC back in 2007 and was in the national title game by 2010. In his first season with the Eagles they went 10-6 after going 4-12 the year before. Even in the NFL, he had early success.

    It took a few seasons for any problems to surface at both gigs, including recruiting violations at Oregon. There really isn't precedent for this kind of start at any of his stops except for his lone season with the 9'ers.

    I'll resist going down the rabbit hole that is Tedford at Cal except to note that his health problems were stress related. He should be able to sustain his success at an institution that is overall more friendly toward football.

  15. On 9/9/2018 at 2:48 PM, berlinerbaer said:

    Week 2 rankings. The Pac 12 South still gargles everyone's balls.

    1) Washington - Can't fault them much for losing to Auburn.

    2) Stanford - A case could be made that they're #1

    3) Oregon - Winning the beauty contests against weak teams.

    4) Colorado - Best road win of the season for the conference so far

    5) USC - True frosh QB needs to find his feet, then they'll move up

    6) ASU - How much longer will Herm be underestimated?

    7) WSU - No glaring deficiencies, but we'll see when conference play starts

    8 ) Cal - Decent road win and making strides on offense

    9) Utah - Workmanlike victories over middling opponents

    10) UCLA - His players don't fit Chip's system, so be patient

    11) OSU - They seem to have some fight in them compared to last year

    12) Arizona - Rich Rod would probably be 2-0 right now...

     

    I see no need to change the rankings from week 2 to week 3. Next week will be fun. Furd plays in Eugene, Washington hosts the Herm, and bottom feeders Zona and OSU have their pillow fight. 

  16. 1 hour ago, pyrohornIII said:

    Apparently ethnicity is the only measure of diversity, right Ted?

    Q: What do you call someone of European heritage from a Spanish speaking country who no longer speaks Spanish?

    A: A white dude.

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