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berlinerbaer

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Posts posted by berlinerbaer

  1. 3 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

     My wife just got done with her second door knocking campaign. They have an app that shows who in the area has done some sort of engagement that indicates Democrat support. Liking Beto on Facebook, voting Democrat in this primaries, contributing, etc. The whole mission is to go, ask about whether the person has early voted, and if not help them make a plan on when they are doing it. It is intentionally designed not to  annoy people who don’t already lean that way. 

    Only about 20% of the people I've talked to are Cruz supporters because the campaign really did a good job identifying supporters and potential supporters. Most Cruz people fall into one of the following categories:

    1) A spouse of someone on my list. This is the most common. 2) The person on my list moved and the new occupants are Rs. 3) The person on my list went off to college but still have their permanent address and I end up talking to their parents. 4) They are wavering Republicans. 5) A mistake in the app.

    It's definitely an expanded list compared to the Democratic party VAN (list of Dem primary voters). They knocked on 900k doors in the run up to the GOTV phase which helped add some new names, aside from the above-mentioned techniques.

    40 minutes ago, Shenanigans said:

    The Beto phone-bankers and door-knockers are literally just helping people find early voting/election day locations and trying to help them prepare a plan to vote. They aren't trying to convince people to vote for a candidate over the other. Seems like a pretty ridiculously thing to get butthurt about

    When we encounter a Cruz voter, we politely end the conversation and head elsewhere. The feeling is almost always mutual.

    The undecided voters OTOH we do try to push towards Beto. Most of them will at least hear us out and a few are actually pretty easy to sway. That's how I know that Lobo is full of shit.

    • Like 2
  2. Beto GOTV results from this weekend. About 220k doors knocked (short of the 400k goal), brining the grand total to just over one million since 10/13. That's on track to 1.8M knocks total by election day.

  3. 2 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

    All true.  But look at NC.  There isn't even a senate or governor's race to not be interested in.  And they are already above 2014 EV turnout with a week to go.

    It's a purple state with a few competitive House districts, a Democratic governor, and an out-of-control Republican dominated state legislature. The Ds want blood but will be met with a strong R turnout.

  4. 24 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

    Maybe 1/3 to half of the nation, including TX, FL and GA are within 20-25% of 2016.  Another group is well above 2014 but still far short of 2016.  States like OH, MT, WV,..  But there are a surprising number of laggards that are little if any higher than 2014.  IA and CO but most notably CA - which is surprising since they have both a senate and governor's race at the top of the ticket.

    The senate and gubernatorial races in CA are in the bag for the Dems. Unless they live in one of the swingy congressional districts, there aren't any reason for the non-partisans to show up.

  5. 1 hour ago, gsoda3 said:

    Is Merkel going to have to form a coalition with AfD? That's what it feels like.

    This was a statewide race, not a nationwide parliamentary election. Within Hesse, the current coalition is CDU-Green, which will remain since the Greens picked up just enough seats to maintain the majority despite CDU losses. Bavaria is also CDU-Green.

    The trends country-wide are definitely more troubling. The Greens aren't popular everywhere, so if the SPD were to lose too many seats in the Bundestag, those seats would be replaced by a combination of Green, Left, and AfD, the latter two of which are more popular in the former East German states. It would be the CDU attempting to put something together out of a bunch of scraps. I don't know if the German system allows for a three-party coalition.

    • Like 1
  6. 3 hours ago, kopp0e said:

    Maybe Cal shoulda kept Tedford...

     

    No. He was done. The program was on the verge of academic sanctions and recruiting was tanking in 2012. He needed a few years off.

    Similar start at FSU as Cal back in '02-'03. The difference now will be that he will have full institutional support at his alma mater that he didn't have at Cal.

  7. 1 hour ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

    Is HGTV the one with all the flipping houses shows? If so, then a fucking lot of people under 65 watch it 

    You're right. I can't keep the reality shows straight anymore.

    In any case, she's not the only Beto supporter who want the gloves to come off.

  8. (Knock-knock)

    (30-something frazzled female answers)

    Hi _____ . I'm volunteering for the Beto O'Rourke campaign for US Senate! Have you gotten a chance to vote by any chance?

    No, but I'm going to --- so I'm watching TV and Ted Cruz is everywhere! Where are the Beto ads?! Saying he's for open borders, and ... it's just non-stop Cruz with his LIES!! What is the campaign doing with 38 million dollars?!

    So... you said you are going to vote. When do --

    You all are going to Lose! Even Lizzie Pannil Fletcher is all over the TV. Where is Beto? Cruz is such an easy target! Talk about ____ ! (can't remember)

    I think I saw that ad. (might have been a little fib)

    Well I didn't!

    What channels are you watching?

    Oh, ESPN... football, and HGTV. Well, I'm glad I didn't give any more money than I did because you all are going to lose!

    So you are going to-

    No - um, see ya (Shuts door abruptly)

     

    ***

    She makes a good point, but who under 65 watches HGTV?

     

  9. 2 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

    FWIW, Congress has always expelled members convicted of a felony. But I get you’re larger point.

    The Pubs would rather the seat be empty than filled with a Dem. Their voters know that too.

    Another R put in his place won't be a real incumbent and will be vulnerable in 2020.

  10. 1 hour ago, slorch said:

    Do you work 7 days per week? For 14 days in a row... with the exact same shift?  With no lunch break?

    They also extend hours on the 2nd week.

    It seems to me, some of the detractors are just looking for a reason to poo-poo the system.

    I believe those hours are being extended this week, which is good. The theme of the thread had evolved into reading the tea leaves about voting patterns so far. I wanted to throw this caveat out there as it is probably affecting those numbers.

    Expect more young voters casting ballots this weekend and next week.

  11. 16 hours ago, slorch said:

    I overheard the proctor telling the ( Beto) new voters how to use the voting machines.  He emphasized that Montgomery County machines had English and Spanish as available languages.  He said his partners in Harris County had 7.

    I'm cool with that, but why would it be different?

    As for hours and the San Marcos crap, our hours of availability are 8-5 all this week and then 12-5 on Sunday, followed by 7-7 all next week.

    I was pleasantly surprised by the available hours.

    I have to disagree about the 8-5 hours. They're crap if you are a working person, especially one with kids who need to be dropped off and picked up from school or daycare. That's asking many to cut work short by an hour or more.

    Naturally, this impacts certain demographics (younger voters) more than others, and thins may account for some of the voting patters we've seen so far.

  12. Her cozying up to Trump following his election was a fatal error for any future presidential run. I can see Dotus tweeting after an early televised debate "I've always admired Tulsi Gabbard! A very nice woman but the rest of the Dems treat her so badly! Sad!" and that will be the end of that.

    I agree that she could consider switching parties if the White House is her true aspiration.

    • Like 1
  13. 7 hours ago, Dnaguy said:

    Real interaction from mid 2010's. 

    Woman working for title company during closing: "I see you're not moving to New Territory. Good"

    Me and wife: "It wasn't for us. Why do you say that?"

    Woman working for title company during closing: "It seems to be all our closings latetly. New Terriority is very hot... or as I like to call it, New Dehli." [winks]

    Me and wife: [both turn to one another and raise eyebrows]

     

    New territory isn't that bad. It's a middle-aged (mid 90's) neighborhood by Sugar Land standards with a sizable population of white Boomer empty-nesters and a sprinkling of olds. My precinct in the northeast of NT went for Trump by 6 points, IIRC. It's certainly diverse, though.

    You're thinking of paTelfair, a real Sri Kulkarni stronghold. Drive through and notice the yard signs. I put them there myself. With permission, of course.

     

    3 hours ago, BrickHorn said:

    Indians are not uniformly Dem.  Far from it.  Many are pro-business / gimme-my-taxes-and-fuck-everyone-else type conservatives.  And a not-insignificant slice are flat-out Islamophobes who vote for whichever party promises to oppress Muslims.  (So, guess who they align with?)

    Correct, but Indian Americans break hard for their guy, if they happen to have one in the race. They do. Kulkarni will win the IA vote by 70 points, at minimum.

    He's been all over the ethnic south and east Asian radio and TV stations giving interviews and has interviews and ad buys in all the Asian language and English language Asian cultural rags around town. He counts Hindi and Chinese among the 6 languages he speaks. The dude isn't shy about grabbing that Asian American vote.

    He'll need the big turnout of minorities and professionals in Fort Bend to offset what will likely be tough sledding in Brazoria County, Shadow Creek Ranch aside.

    If, IF he can pull it off next month, the seat will be his until he gets bored with it. He's as likely to win as Beto, if not moreso.

    • Like 1
  14. More maths.

    A canvassing session is 50 doors. So that's been 11,600 separate sessions, probably by around 3 to 4 thousand volunteers statewide. That is only GOTV since 10/13, and doesn't include the voter ID phase which had gone on for about 9 months prior.

    • Like 1
  15. Beto campaign GOTV numbers, weekend wrap-up edition.

    580,339 doors knocked on as of Monday morning. Over 100k knocked on yesterday alone. 

    FYI, those are total knocks. In my experience, 50 to 70% aren't home or refuse. In most of those cases flyers are dropped off at the door. So that's at least 175,000 actual conversations held and up to 400,000 flyers handed out.

    We should be at 800k by next weekend and over 1 million after next weekend. My guess is that 1.8 million total doors knocked will be the final number by 11/5, well short of the 4.4M goal but an unprecedented effort in the state of Texas regardless.

    • Like 4
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