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burdine

Burnt Ends
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Posts posted by burdine

  1. I'm less focused on where we are now than I am on our trajectory. 

    Last year felt terrible on defense and was a big step back.

    This feels like an even bigger step forward and it does not feel gimmicky (orlando blitz pkg) or insane talent driven (joseph ossai, etc).

    We need more data though to draw any real conclusions but I think it's encouraging.

    If Sark can roll out a consistent top 10 offense and this level of defense or better, I think that might even make Surly smile a bit.

    • Hook 'Em 2
  2. Basically, the data shows that so far the defense has taken a solid step forward against reasonably good competition (no lower div schools, Bama, etc) from last year despite the super frustrating maddening loss to Tech.

    I would also say we are seeing signs of actual development of players.  

    Seniors like Coburn and Sweat are playing at a different level instead of looking like maxed out busts.

    We aren't a dominant defense for sure.  We do seem to be a much improved one.

    For a long time, we have said development of players on the roster has been our biggest issue.  Maybe this staff can get that fixed.

    Too little data to know for sure but it's encouraging so far.

    We did struggle with Tech's mobile QB and we have a couple of those still to come on the schedule (Duggan, Martinez) so I'd like to see how we handle those guys.

    Also, I think it's even more encouraging to see real improvement on the defensive side of the team given Sark is an offensively minded head coach.

    • Hook 'Em 6
  3. Seems like the stats say we have improved YOY but not enough to be a consistent winner with our dinged up offense with a backup QB (who is playing fine for a backup QB but not putting the team on his back play either).

    Not what anybody wants to hear or see but it is what it is.

  4. I guess 98 KSU is a good example of how a very talented team with a new culture and inexperience at QB can lose big to similar or lesser talent with a completely developed and in place winning culture.

    I expect better.

    I would rather play Bama with this team than last year's team.

    And I like being a big home dog.  That is the exact opposite of situations where Texas has usually underperformed.

    Hook'em.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  5. My bad on getting the Apple Turnover reference incorrect.

    I do think 1998 KSU is decent model of how things could go wrong in this game.

    That 1998 Texas team was loaded with NFL talent including RB, but had a young QB and had not gelled as a program.

    I am not saying it is destined be a repeat just that if Ewers has a bad game then that is a good historical reference game.

  6. 51 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

    I posted earlier that I couldn't believe that we were 20 point dogs at home. Going back to 1975, Texas has NEVER been a bigger home dog. In fact, Texas has been a bigger underdog only 6 times ever, anywhere, in that time frame.

    https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/college-football-week-2-odds-texas-largest-home-underdog-since-1975

    Texas Largest Underdog Since 1975

    Year    Spread    Opponent    Result
    1987    +30    Oklahoma (N)    L, 44-9
    1998    +24    at Kansas St    L, 48-7
    1986    +23    Oklahoma (N)    L, 47-12
    2015    +20.5    at Baylor    W, 23-17
    1996    +20.5    Nebraska (N)    W, 37-27
    1989    +20.5    at Houston    L, 47-9
    2022    +20    vs. Alabama    
    1993    +20    at Texas A&M    L, 18-9

    I know that we were 5-7 and lost to fucking Kansas last year, and I went on and on about how impressive Bama is... But I was there for a lot of those games when we were such big underdogs. Many of those Texas teams were just straight up untalented. I have a hard time believing that a team with Bijan, Worthy, Ewers, and Sanders with Sark calling plays can't score enough points to at least keep it close.

    92% of the action is on Bama -20? Man I'm glad I quit gambling on football.

    This is an excellent post.

    To be devil's advocate, that 1998 KSU game is reasonably analogous to this matchup.  They were an established program with their guys.  We had new coaches and a young QB and a stud RB they keyed on.

    The Apple Turnover game ensued.

    But the rest of the games fit the profile.

    • Rage+1 1
  7. 29 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

    Your comment on weather reminds me that I left that point out from the original post in order to keep the post somewhere between "tl;dr" and unwieldy.  The weather this weekend will also provide a slight advantage to Texas. 

    Now, I realize that that comment will inspire a bunch of Cliff Clavin dipshits to show up and tell me that the weather in Tuscaloosa is largely the same as Austin during the summer. That's normally an accurate assessment, but that's also what someone would say who isn't involved with weather patterns for their job's sake. This has been an extremely wet and mild summer from east Texas to the Florida coast, the state of Alabama absolutely included. They've been practicing in mid-high 80's weather all August, lately with some days dipping into the 70's for highs. Their June was hotter than July and their July was hotter than August. Compare that to 100's for much of the summer and 90's for August in Austin. Tuscaloosa didn't have a single day above 100 degrees if memory serves, and not many even near it.

    On Saturday, the forecast has it around 83 degrees at kickoff with high humidity and no wind, and up to 88 by the 4th quarter. Those are awesome conditions if you're Texas, and they're a flashback to early August if you're Alabama. 

    The other thing associated to weather is that Bama frequently plays a neutral site non-conference game against a team from much more mild weather conditions inside a dome. For Alabama players, that change in scenery and breathing conditions is like a steroid boost on gameday. For the opponent, it's usually not doing anything to change their disposition. Saturday offers the inverse of this experience for Alabama and its opponent. They'd better be prepped for that on the medical and nutrition side accordingly. 

    +1 for accurate weather smack.  Heat has been centered in the middle of the country this summer.

     

    Advantage:  Texas!

  8. It's too soon to say much about Sark's time here.

    If he was 10-2 last year, it would still be too soon.

    I like the offensive trajectory.  I like the two new coaches this year.  I like the recruiting.

    He did hire the defensive staff backwards which is definitely on him.

    Maybe he can course correct and maybe he can't.  We'll see.

    • Hook 'Em 2
  9. 3 hours ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

    I'm with R. Kimball.  Just because I'm acknowledging the challenges and possible tough season doesn't mean I'm not absolutely excited about Sark getting his second year with a bunch of new guys. 

    Yeah me too.  This is mostly the way I feel.

    Last season's record was bad and it means something BUT IT IS NOT DESTINY either.

  10. Last year sucked. Kansas sucked. 
     

    Still I think a case can be made our offense and offensive recruiting is on a much better trajectory than under Herman. 
     

    Herman did not prioritize OL like this staff.

     

    So the big question is can he get the defense to improve?

     

    if that happens cigars all around, if not bring on the next guy I guess. 

  11. Playing anybody but who you think gives you the best chance to win that game is just counterproductive.

    Reasonable folks can disagree on who that might be.

    Sark may have quite a few faults as a head coach yet if there is one area he is about as proven as they come it would be as a QB coach and evaluator.

    I guess I trust Sark to maximize that as best as humanly possible.

    Now the defense and young OL, those worry me.

  12. 4 hours ago, 'stache said:

    Nothing. You keep acting like we're asking something of you, we're not. We're venting about how stupid this entire thing has played out, and the responses are all about how worthless we are, and how badly we've treated lord Texas over the years. Al has been crystal clear, the league could have worked but didn't, largely because we came togeter way after the BIG and SEC, and their historical relationships have dead weight making $100 million while we're left behind. It's infuriating that this entire thing has been piecemeal, every decade it changes, and subjective metrics don't matter. That's what's most frustrating in all of this.

    I don't really see anyway the league could have worked once NU and Aggy left.  Mizzou and CU were replaceable.  There just wasn't anybody to add with the support NU and Aggy have.  It really hollowed out the conference.

  13. 11 minutes ago, Sandman said:

    I have zero argument if you want to say that our stadium isn't big enough or we don't get enough attendence, or Stillwater isn't a big enough town. It's the "freerider" tag that I think is stupid. Kansas is a freerider. Kansas State is a freerider. 

    I also have zero issue with Texas. We weren't conference mates for that long, we rarely played before the B12 started. I don't blame them for leaving. Fuck ou though.

    I don’t think it’s right to call OSU and ISU leeches and I don’t think it’s right to say Texas and OU have a similar decision to make as Ohio St and Mich in remaining in their conference. 

    • Hook 'Em 2
  14. Just now, Sandman said:

    I agree. As an OSU fan, what more were we supposed to do? We got a BMD to pour in cash. We hired good coaches. We haven't had a losing season in 15 years, won a coference title and played for several more. We're in the top 10-12 in wins over the last decade.  And for that, we're called a leech? I feel like we did our part.

    OSU and ISU are the class of the remaining.

    However, attendance is still 30-40% less than comparable programs in SEC and B1G.

    Not leeches I think but not the same either.

  15. 25 minutes ago, burdine said:

    image.png.352dc5076ef140d759745aebd4a16f53.png

     

    Here is 2021 football attendance per Wikipedia.  I removed Ohio State, Michigan, Texas and OU.

    5 B1G are above the best remaining Big 12 school.

    I don't think Texas and OU would be leaving a league with that type of attendance and support.

    Most blame has to fall on NU, CU, Mizzou, and ATM for leaving the league.  These were those types schools in the Big 12 that still remain in the B1G.

    ATM is basically directly comparable to Penn St in support and prob more valuable in TV.

     

    My two cents.

     

    image.png.904d2cad9a53b084c46cddd65825ddf1.png

    I went ahead and did the SEC with the remaining Big 12 the same way.

    Basically, there are 3 tiers in the B1G and the SEC, and the Big 12 is missing a upper middle tier of programs like Auburn, ATM, Penn State, NU, Wisky, etc.

    There is nothing comparable in the remaining Big 12.

     

  16. 2 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

    This really all just comes back to some kind "you're just a podunk cow college" bullshit.  

    I've used the analogy of kids building tree forts.  You can't be in our club cause nanana booboo.  That's what this feels like to the schools left out.  You're adequately sized stadiums and passionate fanbases don't matter cause you're from gross towns (that we've never been to but know are gross) or whatever.

    Talking about the bottom half of the leagues.

    image.png.352dc5076ef140d759745aebd4a16f53.png

     

    Here is 2021 football attendance per Wikipedia.  I removed Ohio State, Michigan, Texas and OU.

    5 B1G are above the best remaining Big 12 school.

    I don't think Texas and OU would be leaving a league with that type of attendance and support.

    Most blame has to fall on NU, CU, Mizzou, and ATM for leaving the league.  These were those types schools in the Big 12 that still remain in the B1G.

    ATM is basically directly comparable to Penn St in support and prob more valuable in TV.

     

    My two cents.

     

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