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Hurtlocker

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Posts posted by Hurtlocker

  1. 42 minutes ago, redswingline said:

    The vast majority of athletic departments run in the red. Priorities are outta wack..

     

    It's because it's the front porch for most school's marketing to the greater world.   It's worth losing money on sports if you gain it back in admissions, much like a marketing budget.

    That being said, some are far worse than others.  In the Power Five, 77% of the schools operated in the black as of the 2021-22 fiscal.    Of those that didn't, half were in the Pac 12:

    Arizona, Colorado, Tennessee, South Carolina, Arizona State, Oregon State, Washington, Viriginia Tech, Ole Miss, Maryland, UCLA and Rutgers.

     

    • Hook 'Em 1
  2. 20 minutes ago, Zhorn96 said:

    Rumors are flying on the Cal side.  UVA, Va Tech and NC State are the swing votes and ND is pushing hard for Cal and Furd to be added at a 70% share so the thought is is if ESPN, who won’t have any west coast inventory, will pay some travel costs, it might get done.  SMU for free would give $2-3m per team each, ACC can distribute the Cal/Furd discount however they want so that might shut up FSU and Clemson if they get $8-10m each.  ND wants the Bay Area for an annual California trip and leverage against the Big18 trying to box them in… allegedly.
     

    One person claims the Big18 is back in for $20m per team with a full share in 6 years.  Taking that with way more skepticism… 

    All rumors so take it for what it’s worth…

    ESPN should just give them the BYU deal of like $10-15m a year to go indy, then have the B12 schedule them OOC.   That way they have all the games and don't have to pay.

    Either that, or add them and start a new conference network off the old PacNet infrastructure to pay for the adds.  

    Edit:  I went to look and the old B12 had 7.9m dma households, which is not enough for a conference network, nor did they have the inventory to fill one.

    The current B16 swells that number to 18m homes, which definitely supports a conference network and, at sixteen, provides the inventory to fill it up.   Adding Stanford/Cal bumps that up to 20.5m homes.   That's enough to generate $250-400m in yearly revenue off back end rights.

  3. 23 minutes ago, USC Traveler said:

     They've been the lowest-resourced P5 for years (even below Wake). 

    This is another one of the Pac's numerous failings.   In the 2010s, when Texas stayed in the first realignment, the "have nots" of the conference invested the media revenue wisely in sports infrastructure and in methods to increase fan engagement and revenue.    While they won't catch Texas, they transformed the conference.   Iowa State brought in around $45m back then, they've more than doubled that in a decade to $112m.   Kansas State doubled theirs in that time and most others jumped from the $60s into the $100ms.   Matter a fact, all of the Irate 8 have increased their AD budgets over $100m, which is sort of the line in the sand for the top 50 schools.   Granted, they all need to bump that up into the $150s in the next 5 years, but their books are healthy.

    This is not the case with the Pac.   Their haves continued to have, but the have nots didn't keep up in the same fashion.  Most all of the schools use an unhealthy amount of school funds to subsidize the athletic departments and they've been the most financially weak of the P5 conferences for a while, but the OSU/WSU are special.

    Oregon State and Iowa State, who had the smallest AD budget in the Big 12 a decade ago, were pretty similar in 2013, today Iowa State brings in $23m more per year.   And it does that without taking any school funds (outside charging the students ticket fees in tuition).   Oregon State got to its number with $8.5m in school funds, meaning the clones make $30+m more per year than the Beavers with a similar media deal.

    Washington State is even worse and, to your point, they are the lowest revenue generator in the Power Five.  It takes $14m in school funds, meaning its true revenue is only $69m - and 65% of that is rights and licensing!   For comparison, Central Florida made $89m in that same year, but without a power five media deal.   

    Oregon State and Washington State, regardless of history or success, just don't operate like a power five athletic department and are far closer to Air Force, SDSU, and UNLV.

     

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  4. 9 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

    Well their media contract, and GOR, was up.  That would be the same anywhere.  But waiting so long to get a media deal doomed them.

    Definitely, but on top of those two things the B12, MWC, ACC, and AAC have buyouts that run far longer than any media deal.   The B12's is a 99 year agreement.   It costs $100m to leave the B12, $120m to leave the ACC, and $17-$34m to leave the MWC and AAC.   The Pac had none.   So its cheaper for Stanford to move to another conference and way more expensive to backfill the Pac.  

    That's why the Pac brand will disappear fully.   If they had a buyout, I doubt anyone would have left after USC/UCLA.   They could have added SDSU/SMU and made less, but the math to jump to the B1G at reduced rates or Colorado/AZ to the B12 would have been far less friendly.

  5. 43 minutes ago, ousux said:

    Do we now live in a world where the MWC could be seriously mulling over picking up the scraps of the Pac12 and not the other way round? What a bungled mess out west lol.

    The Pac fucked themselves royally.   They have no buyouts and all the other conferences around them do.   

    Its like they learned nothing from the Big East, ACC and Big 12 over the past 20 years, while the MWC and AAC did.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  6. 12 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

    I think I saw yesterday maybe on here or elsewhere that adding teams could trigger a renegotiation clause?

    They could do that with UConn though.    Only thing I can think this may give them is more premium subs for ACCN.   But even then its not a huge amount.  Maybe $50-60m more out of DFW and the Bay Area.

    If ESPN is giving them full in, maybe that's enough to bribe FSU and Clemson.   If ESPN is using this bump to pay for them though, its a wash.

  7. 9 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

    Scheduling would be difficult 

    IMG_8849.jpeg

    It will get there eventually.   Not just because the other sports suffer, but also because once you do this the media contracts get stupid big.     It sounds strange to say, but conferences are the biggest limiter on rights fees at the moment.

  8. 6 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

    ALL OF THIS.

    Fuck em both. This talk of them joining this P5 conference or that P5 conference is wishful bullshit. Stanford belongs in a P5 conference as much as the University of Chicago, who hasn't had a football program since... i forget when and I'm not looking it up, because i don't care about them, either. There are 10 UCs, every last one is a top 100 school, and only 2 have football teams; the better one of the two is mediocre at best, and joining the B1G.

    not so fast!

    Chicago College Sports Teams

    • Haha 2
  9. 45 minutes ago, Left Coast said:

    USC, UCLA, UO and UW were great gets for the B1G (especially the latter 2 at clearance sale prices). What don’t you think is “quality” about those pick ups?

    There were two different things being discussed.    The first was geographic continuity.   I still contend the B1G LOOKs ridiculous with the bulk of their members around the great lakes then a thousand miles of nothing until coastline.    That has nothing to do with the schools and everything to do with where the schools are.

    Second, we were discussing the SEC and who they should grab, I was agreeing with the sentiment the SEC doesn't need to expand, do to favoring "quality over quantity."  The more big brands are condensed, the greater the interest, the higher the value.  

  10. 19 minutes ago, locodos said:

    Sure, but I want the sec to stay at 16.  IMHO any larger and no extra $$$ what's the point?  UF/FSU already plays every year...  so what happens if they get in?  Do we only play them on rotation?  Does UGA go on rotation?  Expansion = POD talk not going away

      and even then, I'd prefer not.

    Agree, the B1G looks ridiculous right now.   I'd take quality over quantity.    

    • Hook 'Em 2
  11. 38 minutes ago, JMFP said:

    So who's on the hook now for that $50 mil that the PAC owed to Comcast? 

    If they dissolve it will be a line item on next year's revenue, so everyone will make less.   Same is true on if they liquidate assets, etc, that will all go into the pot to pay out before turning off the lights

  12. 46 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

     

     

    Underrated...let's check the math:

    Stanford, Cal and SMU come in to give them 18, pay them all $15m.   $45m gets split between FSU/Clemson, plus a bigger share of the post season...that could be a $25-35m bump for each, getting them to $55-65m.   

  13. 1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

    Seems like a good idea to re-form the Pac-12 in this manner. I guess it's strong conference office leadership that is keeping it from happening but that means there are a few MWC schools that are giving away their shot at sneaking into P5 status. If the Pac-12 doesn't come back to life then it's a P4.

    yeah MWC poison pill of $17m for a year notice $34m for less is killing their prospects of expanding.   Someone should have told them than with the way their contract is structured with no buyouts that they shouldn't wait until the last minute to do a media deal.

  14. San Diego State fails in attempt to create new 'Power Five' conference with Pac-12, Mountain West, AAC members

    SDSU's effort to rally a group of major programs into a new league fell short before it gained any momentum

    Quote

    An initiative led by San Diego State to essentially create a new conference that would have sought "Power Five" designation in the aftermath of radical conference realignment failed this week, sources tell CBS Sports.

    SDSU president Adela de la Torre was leading a push to assemble what would have amounted to a breakaway of the best schools from the Mountain West and American conferences along with some combination of Pac-12 leftovers California, Stanford, Oregon State and Washington State, sources said.

    However, the idea died after Monday night after Mountain West presidents held a call that ended with the leadership showing unity.

    "Everything that is out there is from San Diego State," a Mountain West source said Monday of the breakaway attempt. "They've been wanting to be part of the Pac-12 forever. They have a hope and dream that they can take the best of us, the best of some other leagues, re-form and keep, honestly, the [College Football Playoff] designation, reap the 10s of millions of dollars in distributions and resurrect the Autonomous Five in the West."

    The development could clear the way for Oregon State and Washington State to join to the MWC, industry sources tell CBS Sports. The AAC has expressed an interest in the schools as well.

    Regardless, the next round of realignment seems to be on hold until the fate of Cal and Stanford in the ACC is decided. CBS Sports reported Monday both schools were being considered by the ACC on a preliminary basis. The academic giants represent half of the Pac-12 leftovers.

    ACC athletic directors met Monday and had another call scheduled for Tuesday to consider Cal and Stanford.

    It's not clear how any combination of leftover schools would have obtained "Power Five" designation in a new conference. That label exists formally in the NCAA constitution, which gives weighted voting rights to the "Autonomous Five." The CFP gives equal revenue shares (currently $80 million each) to the SEC, Big 12, ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 annually.

    Now a four-member league, the Pac-12 is in danger of losing that designation.

    SDSU's de la Torre did not immediately return a request for comment. 

    "Does it make sense to take the best of the American, remaining Pac and best of the Mountain West and create a new conference that [would] potentially fight for A5 designation? In general, I think it does," an industry source said. "I just am not sure what value that would bring from a network standpoint. ESPN and Fox … have already spent their money."

    Rightsholders spent the weekend evaluating the worth of all four remaining Pac-12 schools potentially joining the Mountain West. There are conference composition clauses in every media rights contract, but rarely does 40% of a Power Five league become available.

    One roadblock to forming a new league is the Mountain West's exit fees. For any school to leave and join a new league in time for the 2024 season, it would have cost $34 million per program. Those exit fees would go away if the MWC "dissolved," which would require nine of 12 schools to exit.

    The Mountain West has three years left on its media rights deal with CBS and Fox. In 2020, the MWC signed a six-year, $270 million contract -- approximately $4 million annually per school. Cal, Stanford, OSU and WSU will earn nearly $21 million in the final year of the Pac-12's current contract, which expires after the 2023-24 season.

     

    • Haha 2
  15. 13 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

    I think FSU vote + 8 more if I recall. 

    Seems more like 12, if you round up, which is 3/4ths of the schools.   If they added Stanford and Cal it would be 13.   

    Some light reading: ACC Constitution and Bylaws

    Excerpts:

    98f51839a96986a479132ece068b55fd.png

    Need to do it before hand too, because once you say you're leaving you lose your vote and all rights on future revenue - also need to do it by next week:

    0edafea4e949720764317e3a858298bc.png

    cfb90f600b2fcf6d01135a95a4602d6a.png

    Also, GoR isn't in the constitution/bylaws because it is a separate agreement binding the rights to 2036 regardless of if the member withdraws from the conference.   Here's the initial GoR, which was extended from 2027 to 2036 to make the ACC Network.

  16. 7 minutes ago, nunna yo bizness said:

    Tough shit for them.  Nobody forced them to schedule MOO and N.Ill. noncon games.  For that matter nobody forced them into the shitty ACC either.  They had their choice of any conference.  Don't expect too many tears shed for those fuckers.

    Report: Dodds admits courting ND

    Matt Fortuna, ESPN Staff WriterMay 23, 2012, 09:00 AM ET

     

    No, the Big 12 isn't planning on expanding just yet. That doesn't necessarily mean it wouldn't welcome Notre Dame, though.

    Texas athletic director DeLoss Dodds told CBSSports.com on Tuesday that conference representatives have spoken with the Irish as far back as August 2010 about moving the athletic department's Olympic sports to the Big 12....

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  17. 5 minutes ago, hawkfan said:

    The biggest disagreement I think we have is that if you follow the money, 10/11 conference games will be inevitable. 

    The networks don't give a fuck about 3/4 OOC games, most of which are against bumfuck FCS University. 

     

    Agree with this completely.    This is the next big revenue slot to fill once the playoffs are expanded.    Currently when you look at these media deals, they only value conference games.   Even if you go play another P5, er P4 it isn't factored in because, one, its a H/A usually so you only get half and, two, because it isn't consistent...its an outlier they can't measure.

    That leaves 25-33% of the games undervalued.    You can fix this by playing more conference games, or entering into a scheduling agreement.    For instance if the new Big 16 and the SEC decide to play 8 conference games and two H/A's a year against each other, they'd have 12 P4 games on the schedule, providing value to both media deals, and maximizing the entire regular season.

    Downside, you get rid of "tune ups"

    But do something like this and a $60m media deal turns into an $80m one as fast as you can say Abilene Christian.

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