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Txzen

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Posts posted by Txzen

  1. On 11/7/2021 at 1:37 PM, Murfdogg21 said:

    Posting legitimate science based concerns on here paints you as an anti-science trumpster, yet I continue. Saying this particular mRNA must be safe because we naturally have mRNA is about as valid logic as saying cholera, ricin, or botulinum are safe proteins because we have other proteins. Is it most likely safe for most people? Of course. Could there be unknown side effects that we don’t understand until years down the road? Certainly. Could the metabolism and cell/DNA/RNA replication differences between children (or even more so infants and toddlers when that day comes soon) and adults results in different reactions? I can’t say that’s impossible or even unlikely. This is a synthetic mRNA designed to create a representation of the 3D conformation of a spike protein, with different start and stop sequences and intermediate stabilizing elements included that are unnatural. If I were concerned, it would be more about the introduction of this mRNA in a young system than the lipid (aside from some allergic reaction to the carrier materials). Anyway, that’s why I originally posted that I would feel more comfortable with the little kids getting the J&J version today and until there is wide spread safety data and, although under different circumstances I might inject my kids with Pfizer (or Moderna), I would be more cautious than celebratory. 

    You know enough legitimate science to write a few words, but not remotely understand the meaning.

    Could cell replication, DNA replication and RNA replication be different between children and adults and thus cause a reaction with the vaccine? This doesn't even make any sense. Please point to the legitimate science supporting this concern.

    It's not 'designed to create a representation of a 3D conformation'. It's a message to make a string of amino acids which make up a protein. The '3D structure' is built by your own cell machinery. 

    Unnatural start and stop codons? Explain how this impacts the translated product, please. Intermediate stabilizing elements? 

    Approximately 7.4 billion doses administered as of today. 

    • Hook 'Em 2
  2. On 11/4/2021 at 6:08 AM, LonghornJones said:

    Grand Summit Hotel. Great amenities, Ski School, and ski-in ski-out. 3 hot tubs and a big pool. Umbrella bar on the snow right next door for dad to take a break, too.

    That place looks great. I really prefer the Canyons side of PC. That's a nice base village with a great locker room and a nice bar for a sunny day. We usually stay in the middle of the two base areas, and use the free shuttle to move around - the fact that there's an open air gondola (of sorts) from the bus dropoff that then takes you to 20 steps from the Red Pine gondola is amazing - no hiking up stairs with your gear (why can't more places do that?). It's easy to take that free bus into Park City town proper (or Deer Valley, for that matter). 

    When we had a developing intermediate, the long blue run under the Sun Peak Express was great - seemed out of the way and had a short line. The blues coming off os Saddleback (left when you exit) are fun too as you're sometimes on, or going under bridges through the aspens. Interesting terrain that's like a toboggan run. 

  3. 26 minutes ago, Upgrayedd said:

    I don't think there is one home from South Lake Tahoe thru the West Shore that has a defensible perimeter.  

    No, and that whole West Shore area backs up into, and in some cases is surrounded by, forest land. You can't just chop down those trees regardless. 

     

  4. Caldor Fire in the Tahoe area has been laying waste to some of my favorite areas for hiking and camping, and is now threatening the Tahoe Basin it self. 

    Most all of South Lake Tahoe and the West Shore are under a mandatory evacuation. There's been no stopping this beast. I hope I'm wrong, but it seems inevitable it's going to make it to these areas. Horrible. 

    Tahoe Evacuation map

    rawImage.png

    Spoiler

    2021_08_30-09.24.07.929-CDT.jpeg

     

  5. 34 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

    So the study doesn't argue the fact that people who have never had COVID but have had the vaccine are (obviously) better off than those who have never had COVID and haven't had the vaccine.

    The study also indicates that people who have had COVID and also the vaccine are better off than those who have had COVID and haven't had the vaccine.

    So you have two groups, have had COVID and haven't, and both groups are better off if they've had the vaccine.

    Thank you for your contribution.

    I think one comment brought up is that re-testing for COVID was voluntary, and the authors point out that the reports of people who had COVID saying they never got it again relied on them to get tested if they felt sick. It's a reasonable question to ask if you had it once, how likely would you be to get tested again if you develop symptoms, perhaps thinking 'no, I had it once no way I have it again'. 

    The data are in disagreement with the other study posted yesterday (which is to be expected - we are learning about this month by month). Interesting though.

  6. 18 hours ago, TexEx15 said:

    Lot of people smarter than me in here about this stuff but this thread seems encouraging.  TLDR: 

     

    That paper also shows two other things. First, a naive person + a vaccine appears to generate more neutralizing Abs than someone with prior COVID infection. Second, a person with a history of a prior COVID infection who gets vaccinated has an ever greater response that someone who has only completed a standard vaccination. That's useful as a model for what a booster shot will do, and should provide evidence to those who think their natural immunity from having been infected is sufficient. 

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  7. On 8/18/2021 at 9:50 AM, RDCanecutter said:

    It's not just in the south. I biked along canal paths on the Somme and down near Strasbourg. I wouldn't be surprised if you could find them anywhere there's a river.

    Pedaled on a lot of small roads too, never a problem, but this was pre-I-Must-Always-Stare-at-My-Smartphone. The French are more used to scooters and other slow little things, it seems. You've got a village every three miles, with patches of woods between the farms, makes for great riding. 

    One thing to check for is the Grande Randonée routes. These are hiking paths (often along small roads) that the French laid out maybe 100 years ago to encourage their citified utes to get out and exercise. There are webs of them that cover the country, and are marked in towns by colored symbols that are a secret code for those with the right map. I would get a paper Michelin map of the area that is marked with them, because I doubt if they made it into the GPS world or if you'll even get cell service in some of these places. I followed these paths in some back-of-beyond territory and saw things I doubt anybody but the locals knows about.

    I've done several trips in France centered around short violent treks up HC Cols used by the Tour de France. As I'm not as young or as in shape as I used to be, more flatter scenic things are having some appeal. You want to look for the 'Voies Vertes'. I think some of them (or many of them) can turn into fairly primitive gravel paths in isolated rural areas, though.

    Voies Vertes : clickable map for planning

    I'll say there is great respect for cyclists there. Obviously you want to stay off busy roads, but cycling is very much a way of life there and it's quite safe. Huge tourism draw as well.

    • Drool 1
  8. 55 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

    Here’s a link to a paper about non human primate studies, so that was done. 
     

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2024671

     

    and here’s mice. 
    https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-moderna-investigational-covid-19-vaccine-shows-promise-mouse-studies

    mouse study finished in august 2020, nonhuman primate finished October 2020, then we started the human trials and had the EA a couple of months later. 
     

    shit just went fast because we wanted it to. There were no financial driven delays, and no sitting in line. Nothing seems to have been skipped. 

    Mice are not normally considered a 'tox species'. Part of the preclinical data package in many instances, yes, but at least in oncology they are not used to show toxicity.

    That said, according to the Pfizer EAU memo the non-clinical tox studies were repeat dose studies in rats. Additional studies 'to support safety and efficacy' were in rhesus macaques and mice (so what do I know).

  9. 1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

    From the I was told there would be no math hard file, an interesting break down of the Israeli data...

     

    That's just an excellent breakdown. Needs to be a sticky on the top of every page going forward. 

  10. Maybe you weren't highlighting that one trial. For the second trial cited, it is thankfully a much larger trial of ~2500 people. There does appear to be a benefit in recovery, but like the other study, the benefit isn't massive in my opinion. For instance, 715/787 (91%)  in the steroid group were not admitted to a hospital, while the number was 701/799 (88%) in the control group. Of those admitted, 7% needed supplemental oxygen in the control group, while 5% needed it in the steroid group. Oddly, a lower percentage in the control group needed mechanical ventilation compared to the steroid group (1 vs 2%, respectively), but I think the numbers are too low to mean much there. 

    So, this stuff is being looked at, but I'm sure the complexity of the clinical situation with age, comorbitities, and now delta, makes it challenging. There's not an easy answer, searching clinicaltrials.gov you can find a study for pretty much anything you can think of, but the reason there isn't an answer for you is not because the CDC and NIH are twiddling their thumbs. 

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  11. 3 hours ago, JohnLocke said:

    I gotta go with intentionally obtuse. Nobody is actually this obtuse.  The first part of my story is literally a cautionary tale about getting vaccinated, comparing the outcome of my son who was vaccinated vs. his friend who was not.  Yes, get the vaccine. It may save your life. I have.   We can two things at once though.  We may yet have a strain where vaccines are useless, or worse, counter productive. There is a thing called antibody dependent enhancement.  We should be preparing for that, and yeah, maybe even helping some of those who "deserve" what they get because they are unvaccinated.

    We have not been aggressive in pursuing at home treatments to keep you out of the hospital.  Let me give you one example. This is from the NIH website: https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/therapies/immunomodulators/corticosteroids/

    Recommendation

    There is insufficient evidence for the Panel to recommend either for or against the use of inhaled budesonide for the treatment of COVID-19.

    This is based on 2 studies which show encouraging results: https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/tables/table-4b/

    Cliff notes: Evidence that budensonide may help keep you out of the hospital and/or from dying but study limitations preclude a firm conclusion.

     

    Now, here's my complaint.  The CDC and NIH have literally tens of thousands of employees. Do they actually have something more important to do then figure out whether a low cost readily available drug can help keep covid patients out of the hospital?   We are 18 months into this, and they can't/won't figure this out. Why? WTF? Is it really not a priority?

     

     

    Your indignation at picking on one trial - with massive caveats - is interesting. In case you didn't read the study, patients who were in Oxfordshire UK and had mild enough symptoms to be at home were prescribed inhaled steroids. The study outcome was simply if they sought out urgent care. The data is encouraging for sure, and fits in with the finding that people with COPD (who use budesonide, among other things) appear to be under represented in patients with severe COVID. But the study was cut short by the national lockdown, which prevented the trial from recruiting outside the local region, and as such the study didn't reach the sample size needed for a power analysis. They tried to bootstrap some in silico predictions using a virtual trial with the same study design, but I think that's hard to hang your hat on to. There are a lot of caveats with the study, and even for the approved usage of dexamethasone, a very big steroid gun, the data is mixed and the potential side effects for those with mild cases makes it not so clear cut. 

    You are of course ignoring all the other agents with emergency use authorization to keep patients alive, like dexamethasone, tocilizumab, remdesivir, the monocolonal antibody therapies (casirivimab, imdevimab, bamlanivimad, etesviumab, sotrovimab). Also all the other thousands of ongoing clinical trials around the world, some of whom like these at the NIH are looking to repurpose drugs to treat COVID. 

    But you go rage against the CDC and the NIH. Sorry, in this case I guess the University of Oxford and the UK's National Health Research Authority. 

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  12. Staying in Hanalei is great, because a lot of the day traffic dies down a bit from people visiting from the south - it gets a little quieter for sure. That said, while we always stayed up north, we would take at least one trip to the sunnier Poipu area too. 

    Have not been since they instituted all the restrictions driving to Ke'e. Can understand why, as it was getting to be a zoo, but as I understand you have to be on top of your reservations and hit your reservation window (often earlier in the morning that I would like on a vacation). 

    Lots of decent to good food in Hanalei - I'm partial to Hanalei Gourmet (get whatever the fish special is), kalua pork nachos at Kalypso while sitting and looking at the rain on the mountain above, Tiki-Man pizza, and the Dolphin. Smith Family Garden Luau for the win - go as early as they let you and wander the gardens as long as you can before dinner, with a bag of birdseed for the peacocks. 

  13. On 8/3/2021 at 9:16 PM, DDD Dad said:


    Stahp GR

    These are all dumb ideas - the people that are dragging their feet will not be convinced if you say we're shipping it to India. 

    You want to be a part of society, show your vaccine card. Or sit home and eat horse paste. It's a free country. 

    (edit - sorry, meant to reply to the original post from Twitter)

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  14. 14 hours ago, bschoolprof said:

    One theory I’ve read is kids have strong T cell immunity to other coronaviruses that cause colds. T cell immunity in general declines significantly with age, which could explain why kids are less likely to catch it compared to olds. It’s just a theory though. I’d love to prove it (get my name in the National Geographic). 

    Yes - and you can even see this with the antibody titer response to the vaccine. The older you are, the harder it is to generate a neutralizing titer, and the less effective the vaccine is. Young people have a more robust immune response. 

  15. 4 hours ago, Hpara759 said:

    Well....looks like I'm in good shape...got my "experimental" booster in April

    And you're still alive? That's good to hear. 

    In all seriousness, while more neutralizing antibodies are generally a good thing, it's not clear yet what the increase is in protective benefit. 

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  16. On 6/4/2021 at 7:16 AM, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

    Not if you know what you are doing. You have to be up for dispersed camping, though.

    Look man, we’re not planning on crashing parking lots with and RV and a fuck tent. Although that now does seem to have a certain appeal...

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  17. I'm out of town, and get this text. Now mind you, I've been talking about visiting some National Parks lately, but have been doing the planning as she's never been to any of them (I've been to most) and I want to combine a few for a longer summer trip. 

    Her: I'm booking Yellowstone for next summer. You good with mid-late June? 

    Me: Uhh...that's abrupt. Want to think this trough as for a longer stay it might make sense to stay in two different places - it's a big park. Where are you looking and for how many days?

    Her: 2022

    Me: That didn't answer my Q

    Her: I've been looking at the (so-and-so) and (so-and-so) website. It's a year off. We can cancel anytime until next May.

    Me: My God. How many days are you booking and where are you booking?

    Her: Inside the park. 

     

    Whereupon I break out the bourbon and put the phone down. 

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  18. 1 hour ago, HornPhD said:

    She lives in white, soccer Mom Oakland. That’s a much different part of Oakland than what most people visualize. She’s probably too scared to walk around Lake Merritt on a Saturday. 

    Yeah. She's in Rockridge, or the Hills. Maybe Montclair. 

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  19. 1 hour ago, Foosters said:

    Took my first cab out of LAX in like 8 years the other day. Waited in the "rideshare" line for roughly 30 minutes and only came across 3 Uber/Lyft drivers, all of whom were asking for significantly more money than I'd ever seen for that drive out of LAX. This was a sunday afternoon. Ended up walking to the cab line, hopping in the one waiting at the front of the line, and paid about $25 less than the rideshare options.

    How did they ask for money? The LAX line works, or worked pre-covid, in such a way that until you were in the car and gave them your trip code, they didn't know where you were going. 

    And yes, the cab 'industry', more like a mafia, killed themselves. It's no coincidence that Uber started in San Francisco, one of the worst taxi cities I've ever been in. As a resident, it was a joke to try and get a cab for a 'small' ride in town. You'd call, they never show up. You call again, rinse, lather repeat. They deserve everything they got from rideshare. Rest in pieces. Totally get the conversation around how the rideshare service can be exploitive of their drivers.  The taxi medallion system seems even worse to me. 

    • Like 1
  20. I don't watch him, not fond of his shtick. But by all accounts, a very solid dude. As mentioned above: 

    Guy Fieri Is Back Feeding Firefighters in California

    Spoiler

    As of today, CAL FIRE states that nearly 2,800 fire personnel have been assigned to the Glass Fire alone, so, clearly, all the meals they can get their hands on are helpful. “We’re making 3,800 meatballs,” Fieri proclaimed according to the Santa Rosa Press Democrat. The paper explained that, in all, Fieri’s team boxed up about 2,000 meals of penne pasta, salad and garlic bread.

    Fieri—who grew up in Northern California and owns properties in both Sonoma and Napa counties—has gotten plenty of experience cooking for firefighters over the past few years. The Press Democrat says the chef was last seen on the frontlines only about a month ago, serving grilled chicken, rice, and local veggies to emergency crews during the massive LNU Lightning Complex fires. But his history of providing food during wildfires goes back years—whether it was cooking barbecue for those affected by the Wine Country fires in 2017 or serving pulled pork to officers dealing with the Camp Fire in 2018. If trouble strikes and Fieri can get there, don’t be surprised to see him and his team on the scene.

     

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