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TheYoungHorn

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  1. Right now it's Tech -12.5.
  2. Not that it will matter. But the narrative is shaping up well for BYU. No one giving them a chance it the game. No one giving them a chance to even make the playoffs. CHIP ON THE SHOULDER: CHECK
  3. The Florida loss while crappy, and completely on our coaches (I mean, remember the left guard situation in that game) and unwillingness to do anything but try to max protect deep PA shots, is crazy how people think Florida is total garbage. They are incredibly talented team that didn't meet pre-season expectations and after rallying for their beloved coach, wilted down the stretch. This is a team that has only three SEC wins away from the Swamp in the last 4 seasons, and none of those were this year. In all of Napier's tenure at Florida they won 4 total games away from the swamp (4-18 away from Gainesville in his 4 year run). In contrast they were 18-8 in those four years at the Swamp including (10-4) in SEC play in the swamp. At home they had a game they gave away to a good and talented mid-major team USF (turnovers). But otherwise they were 4-2 at home, with 3 wins coming against Power 4 competition (and had completely quit and let Tennessee roll up on them to finally score a win in their rivalry in the swamp). They were neck-and-neck with Georgia on a neutral site, and a controversial reversed-call away from perhaps taking that one, falling only 24-20 to the committee's number 3 ranked team. They then went on the road after fully laying down on the road against Kentucky, and then on the road against the committee's 6th ranked team, Ole Miss led 24-20 at halftime. Then in the fourth quarter, after Ole Miss takes a 3-point lead 27-24, they drive down to deep into Ole Miss territory, where they are in tying field goal range, have a 3rd and 5, and then a tipped-ball interception ends the drive, and takes points off the board. Ole Miss then gets a final punch in touchdown when Florida pinned back on their own goal line has to go for it on 4th and turns it over on downs.
  4. Texas Tech lost on the road to Arizona State, who is comparable in finally power ratings to Florida even now. So if Texas Tech loses to BYU are they now disqualified? Of course not. Florida when we lost to them, at the Swamp, in their yearly rally around their beloved but beguiled head coach and win one for the gipper, was ranked 33rd in FEI, with the 18th ranked defense and 15th ranked special teams units. We came in after a two week prep with a bone-headed and brain dead gameplan to keep everything in front of us and not let Lagway beat us with his legs, even after he got gimpy, and because we were missing our best and most reliable corner back we adjusted everything our coverages to be softer and looser (in both man and zones). This was also the most clear picture that Akina had murdered our secondary cohesion as we let simple routes murder us all day. Combined with a handcuffed pass rush, and as a result a passive defensive line not allowed or able to cause havoc, left our second and third level run defenders gashed by a great running back who almost always had a head of steam as we stood around and caught blocks at the line. The biggest issue here is that the Florida loss so soon after the Ohio State loss and two hapless offensive performances at home in OOC games created the national narrative that Texas and Arch was a fraud, and thus they were already out of it barring a miraculous run. Then the dominating performance against OU was chocked up to Red River weirdness, not indicative of our strengths and their weaknesses as good football teams. Then the two road clunkers, let everyone determine that Texas had to win out to be in the playoff. By this time people had already discounted the Ohio State game, and there was never any discussion of the fact that Texas had an 82% post-game win expectancy on the road, against the defending champion and clear best team in the nation this year, in the first road start for a new quarterback.
  5. This should be the argument. It's the data behind what many of us have been saying, not just about relative SEC schedule disparity between Texas and A&M/Ole Miss, but overall. FEI has a measure that takes a team two-standard deviations better than average, a stand in for an elite team. In years past you might call this the top 10, but for these purposes let's say its teams in consideration for a 12-team playoff. Which is what we are talking about, so it's the right measure. So based on your schedule here is how many expected losses an elite team would have based on the most recent Week 14 FEI ratings: ELS elite strength of schedule Wisconsin 3.8 expected losses Purdue 3.4 UCLA 3.12 ##Texas 2.8 Penn State 2.74 Florida 2.69 Auburn 2.61 Rutgers 2.53 Arkansas 2.52 South Carolina 2.52 ##Alabama 2.38 LSU 2.38 Kentucky 2.35 Illinois 2.35 Iowa 2.33 USC 2.23 Missouri 2.22 Mississippi State 2.18 ##Oklahoma 2.18 Tennessee 2.08 ##Oregon 2.04 Michigan State 2.02 Washington 2.01 Minnesota 1.95 Michigan 1.94 ## Other Playoff contenders rankings: 32. Texas A&M 1.72 33. Georgia 1.68 34. Vanderbilt 1.65 38. BYU 1.56 42. Notre Dame 1.49 43. Indiana 1.48 47. Miami 1.35 50. Ole Miss 1.31 51. Utah 1.27 53. Ohio State 1.23 57. Texas Tech 1.15 87. Duke .44 105. Virginia .34 G5 contenders 85. Tulane .47 112. North Texas .25 116. James Madison. 21 Texas is the only team in the top 10 that wasn't completely derailed by their crazy tough draw this year. Alabama and Oklahoma for that matter, are the only other playoff contenders in the top 20, and even with that Texas' schedule was almost two-thirds of a whole loss more difficult than OU's. Oregon is the only other team that ranks in the top 25. Texas played a schedule OVER ONE LOSS more difficult than every other playoff contender team. And had more than double the expected losses of 7 of the G4 teams alive for a spot (Miami, Ole Miss, Utah, Ohio State, Texas Tech, Duke and Virginia).
  6. What if they got boat raced and had a huge injury, for example a QB go down? They can do whatever they want. Last year it was clear that neither team in SEC/Big 10 championship game was punished, but Texas lost in an overtime game in Atlanta.
  7. Since I can't edit. Here is the corrected numbers (at least until I find another mistake) 1. Alabama (7 - 1) (32-32) minus own impact (31-25) Above Georgia, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5). 2. Georgia (7 - 1) (30-34) minus own impact (29-27) With Ole Miss and Texas A&M, below Alabama based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4688). Above Ole Miss and Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4688). 3. Ole Miss (7 - 1) (22-42) minus own impact (21-35) With Georgia and Texas A&M, below Alabama based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3438). With Texas A&M, below Georgia based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3438). Above Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3438). 4. Texas A&M (7 - 1) (18-46) minus own impact (17-39) With Georgia and Ole Miss, below Alabama based on conference opponent win percentage (0.2813). With Ole Miss, below Georgia based on conference opponent win percentage (0.2813). Below Ole Miss based on conference opponent win percentage (0.2813). 5. Texas (6 - 2) .4844 (31-33) minus own impact (29-27) Above Oklahoma and Vandy based on round-robin record (not a full round-robin) due to a round-robin sweep (2-0). 6. Oklahoma (6 - 2) .5156 (33-31) minus own impact (31-25) With Vandy, below Texas based on round-robin record (not a full round-robin) due to a round-robin sweep (0-1). Above Vandy based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (6-1). 7. Vandy (6 - 2) .4375 (28-36) minus own impact (26-30) With Oklahoma, below Texas based on round-robin record (not a full round-robin) due to a round-robin sweep (0-1). Below Oklahoma based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (5-2). 8. Tennessee (4 - 4) (31-33) minus own impact (27-29) Above Missouri based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4844). 9. Missouri (4 - 4) (29-35) minus own impact (25-31) Below Tennessee based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531). 10. LSU (3 - 5) (36-28) minus own impact (31-25) 11. Kentucky (2 - 6) (34-30) minus own impact (28-28) Above Florida based on head-to-head record (1-0). 12. Florida (2 - 6) opponents .578 (37-27) minus own impact (31-25) Below Kentucky based on head-to-head record (0-1). 13. S Carolina (1 - 7) opponents (42-22) minus own impact (35-21) Above Auburn and Miss St based on conference opponent win percentage (0.6563). 14. Auburn (1 - 7) opponents (39-25) minus own impact (32-24) With Miss St, below S Carolina based on conference opponent win percentage (0.6094). Above Miss St based on conference opponent win percentage (0.6094). 15. Miss St (1 - 7) opponents (37-27) minus own impact (30-26) With Auburn, below S Carolina based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5781). Below Auburn based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5781). 16. Arkansas (0 - 😎 opponents total .5156 (33-31) minus own impact (25-31) Schedule was Ole Miss (7-1), Tenn (4-4), A&M (7-1), Auburn (1-7), Miss State (1-7), LSU (3-5), Texas (6-2), Missouri (4-4) Negating your own impact toughest SEC conference schedules 1. South Carolina (35 other conference wins) 2. Auburn (32 other conference wins) 3-Tie. Alabama, Oklahoma, LSU, Florida (31 other wins) 7. Mississippi State (30 other wins) 8.TIE Georgia and Texas (29 other wins) 10. Kentucky (28 other wins) 11. Tennessee (27 other wins) 12. Vanderbilt (26 other wins) 13-TIE. Missouri and Arkansas (25 other wins) 15. Ole Miss (21 other wins) 16. Texas A&M (17 other wins)
  8. Yeah, but what I just posted is as close as you are going to get, at least for this years mess. I would have to go back last year to see. In this case your only real arguments would be Michigan vs. Utah/BYU or Virginia if they lost to Duke.
  9. I actually did some math wrong, that number should only be 17 wins out of 56 games. So they beat teams with a combined 12 wins in the SEC. South Carolina, Auburn and Miss State all one each. (3 total) Florida (2) LSU (3) Missouri (4) This is just like the 2020 season. Aggies beat no one, but don't drop their typical bone-headed games, and end up with "best season ever" status.
  10. Actually I apparently did the Aggie math wrong. I think their opponents are actually 18-46, I somehow gave them more credit.
  11. I said the solution for the whole thing, not just for SEC. If there was 64 teams in 8, 8 team "divisions" and you win your division you are in. If you are part of a "stronger" division or pair of "divisions" maybe your contract already awarded you more spots. This of course would be in a theoretical 64-team super league that doesn't look any closer to appearing than it did 14 years ago. Under the current system, say up to 16 teams where Big 10 and SEC agree on 4 autobids each, with 1 G6, 1 Big 12, 1 ACC. That leaves only 5 at-large, and often Notre Dame is going to take 1 of those. So really only 4. If the compromise is Big 12-ACC get one floater between them, then there are only 3 wild cards for Big 10/SEC each year. So this year you could see SEC get 7, Big 10 only get their 4 and the rest fall the way they would. SEC: Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss, A&M, OU, Vandy, Texas Big 10: Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, Michigan? G6: American Winner Notre Dame ACC Winner and Miami if Texas Tech wins Big 12 Winner: Texas Tech or if Tech loses
  12. To state it one more time, a slightly different way. Aggies cumulative average SEC opponent had a (2.5-5.5) record South Carolina's (5.25-2.75), almost the inverse.
  13. Yes if they both get boat raced and/or suffered a significant (namely QB) injury, then you could jump them.
  14. To restate. It's clear that the unbalanced schedules in these massive conferences is not sustainable, and the ultimate cause of all this mess. Which is why you can do two things: 1. make super conferences have divisions again where each division plays true round-robin schedule and 2. Award auto-bids to winners (or top two) after full division play and/or tiebreakers. If you insist on having a plus one (conference championship game), you can take "wild-cards" of divisions to play cross divisionally to determine final spots. It's clear that the Aggies and Ole Miss benefitted from their draw massively this year. Same as it is clear that South Carolina (by a wide margin) and Auburn were jobbed by difficult draws. 28-28 would be .500, in this distribution the Texas and Georgia draw .5179 (29-27) is the median this year. So, Aggies had a schedule strength in SEC play of .3393. Much, much lower than the MEDIAN. And South Carolina was handed a .6250. So while you would often have imbalances in relative strength of one 8 or 6 team division vs another, and therefore the alternating draw with other division teams could result in some imbalances it couldn't end up with this insane variance. South Carolina played a schedule that was 6 wins better than the median, and almost double the wins than the Aggies, 17 games better out of 56. Negating your own impact toughest SEC conference schedules (56 game records of 8 conference opponents remaining not you games) 1. South Carolina (35 other conference wins) 2. Auburn (32 other conference wins) 3-Tie. Alabama, Oklahoma, LSU, Florida (31 other wins) 7. Mississippi State (30 other wins) 8.TIE Georgia and Texas (29 other wins) 10. Kentucky (28 other wins) 11. Tennessee (27 other wins) 12. Vanderbilt (26 other wins) 13-TIE. Missouri and Arkansas (25 other wins) 15. Ole Miss (21 other wins) 16. Texas A&M (19 other wins)
  15. Final SEC Standings with conference tie-breakers applied: 1. Alabama (7 - 1) (32-32) minus own impact (31-25) Above Georgia, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5). 2. Georgia (7 - 1) (30-34) minus own impact (29-27) With Ole Miss and Texas A&M, below Alabama based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4688). Above Ole Miss and Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4688). 3. Ole Miss (7 - 1) (22-42) minus own impact (21-35) With Georgia and Texas A&M, below Alabama based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3438). With Texas A&M, below Georgia based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3438). Above Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3438). 4. Texas A&M (7 - 1) (20-44) minus own impact (19-37) With Georgia and Ole Miss, below Alabama based on conference opponent win percentage (0.2813). With Ole Miss, below Georgia based on conference opponent win percentage (0.2813). Below Ole Miss based on conference opponent win percentage (0.2813). 5. Texas (6 - 2) .4844 (31-33) minus own impact (29-27) Above Oklahoma and Vandy based on round-robin record (not a full round-robin) due to a round-robin sweep (2-0). 6. Oklahoma (6 - 2) .5156 (33-31) minus own impact (31-25) With Vandy, below Texas based on round-robin record (not a full round-robin) due to a round-robin sweep (0-1). Above Vandy based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (6-1). 7. Vandy (6 - 2) .4375 (28-36) minus own impact (26-30) With Oklahoma, below Texas based on round-robin record (not a full round-robin) due to a round-robin sweep (0-1). Below Oklahoma based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (5-2). 8. Tennessee (4 - 4) (31-33) minus own impact (27-29) Above Missouri based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4844). 9. Missouri (4 - 4) (29-35) minus own impact (25-31) Below Tennessee based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531). 10. LSU (3 - 5) (36-28) minus own impact (31-25) 11. Kentucky (2 - 6) (34-30) minus own impact (28-28) Above Florida based on head-to-head record (1-0). 12. Florida (2 - 6) opponents .578 (37-27) minus own impact (31-25) Below Kentucky based on head-to-head record (0-1). 13. S Carolina (1 - 7) opponents (42-22) minus own impact (35-21) Above Auburn and Miss St based on conference opponent win percentage (0.6563). 14. Auburn (1 - 7) opponents (39-25) minus own impact (32-24) With Miss St, below S Carolina based on conference opponent win percentage (0.6094). Above Miss St based on conference opponent win percentage (0.6094). 15. Miss St (1 - 7) opponents (37-27) minus own impact (30-26) With Auburn, below S Carolina based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5781). Below Auburn based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5781). 16. Arkansas (0 - 😎 opponents total .5156 (33-31) minus own impact (25-31) Schedule was Ole Miss (7-1), Tenn (4-4), A&M (7-1), Auburn (1-7), Miss State (1-7), LSU (3-5), Texas (6-2), Missouri (4-4) So cumulative SEC schedule strength, excluding the impact of your direct results against the other teams is below. Negating your own impact toughest SEC conference schedules 1. South Carolina (35 other conference wins) 2. Auburn (32 other conference wins) 3-Tie. Alabama, Oklahoma, LSU, Florida (31 other wins) 7. Mississippi State (30 other wins) 8.TIE Georgia and Texas (29 other wins) 10. Kentucky (28 other wins) 11. Tennessee (27 other wins) 12. Vanderbilt (26 other wins) 13-TIE. Missouri and Arkansas (25 other wins) 15. Ole Miss (21 other wins) 16. Texas A&M (19 other wins)
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