Everything posted by akhornfan
-
Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
Here is archer with 10,000+ guaranteed a ‘few’ days from 3/26.
-
Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
I had <100k US this year. Brisket had 250k - 1M I think. i also have $50 out there to someone on my kids getting back to school for a week. That one’s not looking good.
-
Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
The death rate is low, when compared to the crazy numbers people were throwing out. Which is all I’ve ever said. @Somnio I think the thought was that by now we’d have much more widespread testing
-
Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
Sure - but then what’s the point of ending the chart with a death rate?
-
Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
It doesn’t mean that the death rate is somehow ‘increasing’.
-
Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
What is this intended to illustrate?
-
Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
3-4 weeks behind Italy in what? Are you just making this up?
-
Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
If we’re talking about the lack of humanity and compassion then continuing to throw out ridiculous numbers of dead is worse. Not better. At least the ‘bets’ are coming in on the low side
-
Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
You’re telling me that early on you couldn’t consider that with increased risks that additional measures would be taken? You thought we’d just maintain status quo? Ive been maintaining that the as is numbers weren’t an indicator of future results. For multiple reasons.
-
Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
Worldometer says they flip at 00:00 GMT but there’s a descent amount of ‘give’ to that. they also haven’t picked up the latest NY data. I think the worldometer total ends at +\- 260, unless they roll the last 60 from NY into tomorrow.
-
Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
I’ve had the same screen name through 3 websites and 20 years
-
Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
There aren’t going to be 64,000 dead by Easter.
-
Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
I have a pretty good feeling for what it’s NOT and have been calling bullshit on that when I see it. As in it’s not 3% CFR, it’s not 2%, it’s not 1.5%. It’s not whatever number we keep steeping down to as we see more cases. There just isn’t anywhere near enough data on total cases to put out an accurate prediction at this point. But there is enough, and has been for a while, to set some upward limits. And no offense, that’s where you missed - and I really think it was just emotional, which I understand. I bristled a bit at your comment about throwing out the high figures, because you were so recently right in that group. But if I had to take just a wild ass guess - I’d say under 100k US this calendar year.
-
Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
You should go back a read what you wrote alongside that prediction. You were talking a very strong likelihood. Not a possibility. Essentially anything can be a possibility. But at the time you were so sure you were using the best available numbers, but were insisting on ignoring the evidence that there were far more cases. it’s not going to hit your numbers. We both know it, but now you’re going with name calling and something about a fire. Come on.
-
Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
You can rant and rave all you want. But that you even put down a million as a possibility shows how much emotion you were letting into the situation versus how much you really understood it
-
Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
You do realize you were in the ‘we’re all going to die’ numbers crowd right? Your estimate that you claimed to be conservative had a million US deaths within its parameters.
-
Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
I didn’t say it’s not concerning, but rather we’re not seeing everything looking just like Italy.
-
Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
I know you said you would, but can you show this model out past just one day? Curious where you show it going. . . Thanks for doing this - it’s interesting to watch.
-
Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
I think it’s starting to prove out that this type of thinking isn’t really playing out. Different places are seeing different trajectories, some better/worse but not everything is on a ‘Italy pace’
-
Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
In California the Governor specifically came out and said that the SIP order wasn’t going to be enforced by the police.
-
Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
You don’t need a doctor, just use your head. They’re for sure being more careful with confirmed cases.
-
Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
‘Dude’ it’s a component. You can’t only look at one part of the picture. You’re the one extrapolating. I’m saying more testing and more confirmations is going to lead to more hospitalization.
-
Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
God. You’re ignoring the obvious. All things equal - a confirmed case is going to get admitted first.
-
Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
Oh come on. They’re for sure admitting earlier to the hospital for confirmed cases.
-
Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
I would think a confirmed case has a higher likelihood of hospitalization than an unconfirmed one. Not that that’s a bad thing.