Everything posted by akhornfan
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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
What do statements like this accomplish. Is there a number that is ‘good’ in your mind?
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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
Unsubstantiated
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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
There’s no point. He’s gone completely overboard.
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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
🙄
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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
It’s not a question of if it goes down but by how much and can we test enough or do we have to estimate it to get accurate.
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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
Which is sort of the whole point. Screaming about inaccurate figures makes more people think that the risk doesn’t exist. It’s not helping the situation. Reasonable discussion, critical thought, actual risk assessment and prevention will be what works. Not his brand of insanity.
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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
You know it’s not 7% and you know the number will decrease not increase. You’re so full of shit. Just stop. You’re intentionally lying.
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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
One of the biggest take aways from this is going to be the logic error that so many people have been making from the beginning. We knew that testing was far behind the actual spread of infection in almost every country, with Korea being the only exception. Yet we kept talking about fatality rates while KNOWING that the number was horribly wrong. But then ignoring that and making future projections based on numbers that were obviously wrong to anyone willing to actually think about it. And now we’re acting like we’re preventing the spread of something that’s already spread. Responses are happening so far behind the real time situation.
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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
You can’t have this both ways. If there are anywhere near that few deaths this has been completely overblown
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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
Oh get the fuck out. Total bullshit. You know it’s not going to be 3.5% or anything even near that.
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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
get out of here with facts. Did you you read that his friend told him?
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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
No fucking way?!
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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
Why aren’t we actually seeing more real reports from people on the ground? This ‘from a colleague’ shit is helping nothing.
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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
Can we seriously stop posting this shit?
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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
My bet is that the numbers you used at the time had almost no validity. Which was the opinion I was trying to hold while being shouted down. I think the post mortem infection estimates are going to be astronomical - making the CFRs we were discussing just seem silly.
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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
I do everything from my phone not a computer, so no. I linked it. Are you really saying you thought a million Americans would die and we wouldn’t take some drastic measures or just starting to walk it back?
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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
CDC Estimates @Brisketexan CDC has numbers similar to yours as a ‘worst case’. Sticking with it?
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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
Haha - what?
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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
Mac - very common for those types of businesses to have a blended lease. A base/fixed amount + a variable % of revenue component. That could create high payments in peak periods, but obviously the % component wouldn’t kick in it the revenue doesn’t happen. Still can be catastrophic though, as I’m sure plenty of businesses were banking on that cash flow.
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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
Sorta I guess. Lockdown is a pretty broad term for what they’ve actually done. It does sound good though - makes it seem like a big deal.
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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
They usually have 5 or six what? 16% is insane, if it were something you could extrapolate. I have no idea what you’re trying to say here.
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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
A mortality rate similar to what?
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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
That twitter thread is horseshit. It’s never a verifiable first person account, instead a ‘trusted friend’. Might as well be @Junior Miller’s doctor buddy.
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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
@Brisketexan we’re starting to see some larger scale, but predictable, reactions. Specifically, event cancellations and public recognition. Are you sticking with your projections?
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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
I don’t think anyone is claiming the recovered stat is at all reliable