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akhornfan

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Everything posted by akhornfan

  1. No - the doubling is not obvious because we have little to no grasp on the actual number of infected. Obviously some scenarios were run at worst case. I’m really curious what makes you seem to ‘want’ the number to be bad.
  2. That’s a really odd way to state a projection then and kind of the essence of the problem with the wild ass guesses. You say I think we’re going to be at 10,000 deaths per day, which is a pretty inflammatory number, and then defend it with the ‘why don’t you get this’ argument and then if called on it more then start walking it back. Whatever makes you happy I guess
  3. Now you’re just going in circles. Do you really think we’re going to be at 10,000 deaths per day by 4/2 or whatever date you threw out? Or are you moving that target?
  4. No. Requiring self quarantine if you travel into the state from an area with infections. And for large portions of the state the only way in and out is through Anchorage and Seattle.
  5. Do you understand that 1% of confirmed cases is a completely useless number? You need an all cases or a really good estimate to base anything off of it. You did this when the current number was around 3% too. Just taking what currently exists and making huge assumptions.
  6. So you see what’s happening and really think 10,000+ dead per day? I don’t want you to just say that’s a trend, but that’s what you actually think is going to happen?
  7. Exactly - we were just going to sit back and do nothing with huge death numbers. Anyone trying to unwind their exaggerated claims with the argument of ‘well we did something to stop it’ aren’t being intellectually honest
  8. I never said what I thought the CFR would be just that it wasn’t and wouldn’t be 3%. I said we were further behind Italy and that the chart for cases was useless because the comparison was apples to oranges. Ive said a million US won’t die. That one still has to be proven out, but is highly unlikely.
  9. No - I’ve been mostly right along the way. It started when everyone wanted to use a 3% + CFR and predict a million dead in the US alone. Then the chart that showed we were 7-10 days behind Italy, but only focused on cases. Then the idea that we were somehow worse at testing than Italy. Now it’s just fucking random numbers like 6 digit deaths a day, which I had to round down to 5 for you because you can’t even get that right. My kids getting back into school by June. That’s probably optimistic and might be my miss, but I think it’s good to focus on some hope and positives.
  10. No - rooting to be right despite that being a bunch of deaths is idiotic. Rooting to be right and hopefully as few people die as possible seems, I don’t know, normal.
  11. When you’re doing the extrapolation math on deaths and hospitalization you can’t count day one of infection as the same day as the positive test. There is most definitely a significant lag.
  12. So you don’t fall for the first rumor but the ‘friend of a friend of a friend’ one gets you?
  13. You only went back to 3/16 to get your doubling. Go back to 3/2. The data you’re looking for is on the worldometer site. It’s not perfect, but stays relatively close to other sources.
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