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akhornfan

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Everything posted by akhornfan

  1. I had <100k US this year. Brisket had 250k - 1M I think. i also have $50 out there to someone on my kids getting back to school for a week. That one’s not looking good.
  2. The death rate is low, when compared to the crazy numbers people were throwing out. Which is all I’ve ever said. @Somnio I think the thought was that by now we’d have much more widespread testing
  3. If we’re talking about the lack of humanity and compassion then continuing to throw out ridiculous numbers of dead is worse. Not better. At least the ‘bets’ are coming in on the low side
  4. You’re telling me that early on you couldn’t consider that with increased risks that additional measures would be taken? You thought we’d just maintain status quo? Ive been maintaining that the as is numbers weren’t an indicator of future results. For multiple reasons.
  5. Worldometer says they flip at 00:00 GMT but there’s a descent amount of ‘give’ to that. they also haven’t picked up the latest NY data. I think the worldometer total ends at +\- 260, unless they roll the last 60 from NY into tomorrow.
  6. I have a pretty good feeling for what it’s NOT and have been calling bullshit on that when I see it. As in it’s not 3% CFR, it’s not 2%, it’s not 1.5%. It’s not whatever number we keep steeping down to as we see more cases. There just isn’t anywhere near enough data on total cases to put out an accurate prediction at this point. But there is enough, and has been for a while, to set some upward limits. And no offense, that’s where you missed - and I really think it was just emotional, which I understand. I bristled a bit at your comment about throwing out the high figures, because you were so recently right in that group. But if I had to take just a wild ass guess - I’d say under 100k US this calendar year.
  7. You should go back a read what you wrote alongside that prediction. You were talking a very strong likelihood. Not a possibility. Essentially anything can be a possibility. But at the time you were so sure you were using the best available numbers, but were insisting on ignoring the evidence that there were far more cases. it’s not going to hit your numbers. We both know it, but now you’re going with name calling and something about a fire. Come on.
  8. You can rant and rave all you want. But that you even put down a million as a possibility shows how much emotion you were letting into the situation versus how much you really understood it
  9. You do realize you were in the ‘we’re all going to die’ numbers crowd right? Your estimate that you claimed to be conservative had a million US deaths within its parameters.
  10. I didn’t say it’s not concerning, but rather we’re not seeing everything looking just like Italy.
  11. I know you said you would, but can you show this model out past just one day? Curious where you show it going. . . Thanks for doing this - it’s interesting to watch.
  12. I think it’s starting to prove out that this type of thinking isn’t really playing out. Different places are seeing different trajectories, some better/worse but not everything is on a ‘Italy pace’
  13. In California the Governor specifically came out and said that the SIP order wasn’t going to be enforced by the police.
  14. You don’t need a doctor, just use your head. They’re for sure being more careful with confirmed cases.
  15. ‘Dude’ it’s a component. You can’t only look at one part of the picture. You’re the one extrapolating. I’m saying more testing and more confirmations is going to lead to more hospitalization.
  16. God. You’re ignoring the obvious. All things equal - a confirmed case is going to get admitted first.
  17. Oh come on. They’re for sure admitting earlier to the hospital for confirmed cases.
  18. I would think a confirmed case has a higher likelihood of hospitalization than an unconfirmed one. Not that that’s a bad thing.
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