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Rusty Shackelford

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Posts posted by Rusty Shackelford

  1. 1 hour ago, bernorange said:

    You can try to minimize the issue if it makes you feel better, but this is new and significant territory for the US Dollar and the foundation of American hegemony. Roughly ten years ago, when I started talking about the dollar being in danger of losing it's global reserve currency status, most everyone thought I was a loon - wasn't going to happen in our lifetimes.  They still might think I'm a loon, but likely not because of this issue.  The insanity of our monetary policy is starting to pierce the public consciousness.  And that's important because our monetary policy is a con(fidence) game.

     

    • Haha 1
  2. Only an upper-atmosphere nuclear explosion is capable of generating a long range EMP that could effectively cripple most of the country. Smaller scale non-nuclear weaponry would be restricted to battlefields and local theaters of hot conflict. Somebody educate me if this is not the case.
    I don't see this as being anything other than a fancy name for a nuclear attack. Therefore, due to MAD, it has as much a chance of happening as a more conventional nuclear exchange. If we see ballistic missiles headed our way, we won't bother to wait and see if these warheads are meant to turn our cities to rubble or just fry a bunch of circuit boards. 
     

    That’s my understanding as well, didn’t read the longcat OP. I’m gonna stick with this assumption until someone drops some facts to the contrary.
  3. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported Q2 EPS of $0.50, $0.61 better than the analyst estimate of ($0.11). Revenue for the quarter came in at $6.35 billion versus the consensus estimate of $5.23 billion.

    This volatile market is a Trader's Paradise. Get your free alerts by 7:30am EST daily Read More

    • $535M increase in our cash and cash equivalents in Q2 to $8.6B
    • Operating cash flow less capex (free cash flow) $418M in Q2
    • $327M GAAP operating income; 5.4% operating margin in Q2 $104M GAAP net income; $451M non-GAAP net income (ex-SBC) in Q2 Four quarters of sequential profitability
    • Next US Gigafactory site selected; preparations underway
    • Increased Model S range to 402 miles (EPA)
    • Model Y and China-made Model 3 production rates continue to increase
  4. And extra inflation as a stated policy from the Fed


    https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2020-07-17/the-fed-is-setting-the-stage-for-a-major-policy-change?__twitter_impression=true


    Faced now with the prospect of another prolonged period of low inflation, Fed officials are signaling they will place less emphasis on Phillips curve estimates when setting policy. Fed Governor Lael Brainard said this week that “with inflation exhibiting low sensitivity to labor market tightness, policy should not preemptively withdraw support based on a historically steeper Phillips curve that is not currently in evidence.”

    No longer are estimates of longer-run unemployment taken as almost certainly indicating the economy is at full employment. Instead, Brainard said the Fed should focus on achieving “employment outcomes with the kind of breadth and depth that were only achieved late in the previous recovery.” The Fed is going to try to run the economy hot to push down unemployment.

    By de-emphasizing the Philips curve, the Fed loses its primary inflation forecasting tool. Instead of an inflation forecast, the Fed will rely on actual inflation outcomes to determine the appropriate time to change policy. Brainard pointed out that “research suggests that refraining from liftoff until inflation reaches 2% could lead to some modest temporary overshooting, which would help offset the previous underperformance.”

    Think about what she is saying. Traditionally, the Fed attempts to reach the inflation target from below, effectively using the unemployment rate to forecast inflation and then moderating growth such that projected inflation doesn’t exceed its target. Brainard is saying the Fed should not tighten policy until actual inflation reaches 2%. Policy lags — the time between the Fed’s actions and the resulting economic outcomes — mean inflation will subsequently rise above 2%. The Fed would thus overshoot the inflation target and then return to the target from above.

    Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker goes even further in a Wall Street Journal interview, saying “I don’t see any need to act any time soon until we see substantial movement in inflation to our 2% target and ideally overshooting a bit.” Expect to see more Fed speakers also saying they want inflation at or above 2% before they tighten policy. Also expect to see something along these lines codified at in a policy statement.

    • Like 1
  5. 5 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

    good point
    Immediately, I go and check out VXX and the options strings. Because #stonklife and what could go wrong. 

    The "correct" way to play VXX options is a straddle, right? So you don't care if it goes up or down, just that it goes???

    I believe a straddle would be more expensive, but you would have access to gains on the down side.

  6. 9 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

    Last time Trey mentioned VXX options, I took a flier on a small call position. That was Feb 20 or so.  You know the rest of that story. 

     

    52 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

    Yep, which in turn will turn up the heat on the market as a whole.   
     

    I am going to start buying VXX calls every week.  10% out of the money to start.  

    I'm no expert, but I've played around with call backspreads on VXX before.  You only lose if VXX trades flat, which is extremely rare.

    https://www.theoptionsguide.com/call-backspread.aspx

    • Like 2
  7. 52 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

     As soon as unemployment and PPP funds dry up, they might get hit real hard.

    Yep, from that first link Capt posted:

    Quote

     

    JPMorgan executives said this recession is abnormal because of the high level of stimulus support from the government, which has helped raise Americans' personal income.
    "May and June are really the easy months in terms of what this recovery will look like," Piepszak said on a call with reporters. The real damage, she said, would become evident in the coming months.

     

     

  8. 18 hours ago, RCRanger03 said:

     

    LOL I must have mistyped, no I took my $3.5K initial investment up to his $35K initial investment in those 4 months (without pulling any of my ALPP)

    No whales here 

    I can believe that.  My Stonk account YTD went 21k > 36k > 9k > 62k (today)

  9. 5 hours ago, RCRanger03 said:

    I started at 10% of that initial investment, but I'm around that now... if one of my shell plays pops I'll get there.

    Work has been killing my stonklife lately. Turns out when you're training new hires flipping over to ToS is frowned upon 

     

    You went from $3,500 to almost $1,000,000?  How long did that take?

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