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40acredropout

Burnt Ends
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Posts posted by 40acredropout

  1. 21 hours ago, Hook1997 said:

    I actually went like 6-2-1 Saturday 

    I was an idiot and took the other side of the Iowa/Minnesota game on Friday but went 5-0 Saturday (ND -11.5, FL -17, UVA L'ville U66, Wisconsin -6.5, Indiana -7).  Naturally the first week of the year I didn't put down a sucker parlay with my picks.

     

     

    • Hook 'Em 1
  2. 18 hours ago, 40acredropout said:

    I've got:

    • Ohio -27.5 v Akron -  Akron is that bad.
    • Kent State -21.5 @ Bowling Green - BG's roster is 60% freshman and their QB went 8-30 w/ 2 picks last week. 
    • Miami @ Buffalo O56 - These teams return 86% and 80% of offensive production from last year (ranks 10th and 16th in FBS) that combined to average 55.6 ppg.  They both gave up over 30 points last week.

     

    Fuck me, I know nothing.  1-2.  

    • Rage+1 1
  3. 2 hours ago, closetohumping said:

    Mac Tuesday!!

    I've got:

    • Ohio -27.5 v Akron -  Akron is that bad.
    • Kent State -21.5 @ Bowling Green - BG's roster is 60% freshman and their QB went 8-30 w/ 2 picks last week. 
    • Miami @ Buffalo O56 - These teams return 86% and 80% of offensive production from last year (ranks 10th and 16th in FBS) that combined to average 55.6 ppg.  They both gave up over 30 points last week.

     

    • Hook 'Em 1
  4. He's just a sophomore too.  Commentators were already slobbering all over it, but it really is impressive to watch him work through his reads and throw darts to the open guy.  Getting pretty good protection which makes it a little easier but I'd guess this guy will play on Sundays.

  5. 22 hours ago, closetohumping said:

    Anything better than betting the Mac midweek?

    The answer is and always will be no.  Last night was great.

    Getting in on the games tonight as well:

    • Nevada -10 1H v Utah State.   The Nevada QB is fucking legit and the Utah State qb is.... quite the opposite.  
    • Wyoming -3 @ Colorado State.  Nothing intelligent to add... I thought Wyoming looked good last week so rolling with it.
    • Hook 'Em 1
    • Fuck Around and Find Out 2
  6. 3-3 on the week.  Naturally the two I was most confident in (K State and ND) were whiffs. That said, ND had the ball inside the 5 with the opportunity to cover as time expired so that was fun.

    Mad at myself for not sticking to my gut and going with BC again, who has been one of my money horses this year (along with BYU).  

     

  7. Added the following to the tab:

    • Cinci -7 vs. Memphis <--- Really impressed blowing out SMU on the road last week.  Don't think 7 is enough points, especially at home.
    • Minnesota -20 @ Maryland  <--- PTSD betting against Maryland but they're that bad.
    • Ole Miss -16.5 @ Vandy  <-- Still can't believe Vandy played A&M as close as they did because this is a really bad team.  Think Lane Train rolls them.
    • BYU -29 vs Western Kentucky <-- Think Vegas has underestimated this BYU team all season-  5-1 ATS and I think this isn't enough points.

     

     

     

     

  8. Last week was kind to me.  4-1.  Whiffed on NC State (I underestimated how shitty their QB situation was) but hit BC, K-State, Bama and the Over (43.5) in the Notre Dame @ Pitt game.  

    Early lines I'm liking most this week:

    KSU +3.5 @ WVU is a line I've probably liked more than any other Big 12 game this season; will take KSU ML.  That of course probably means WVU covers, but nonetheless this will probably be my biggest bet this weekend.  Please tell me why I'm an idiot on this one-  KSU seems to be getting better and better and I have been completely unimpressed with WVU.

    Notre Dame -20 @ Georgia Tech who lost by 21 to BC last week and Clemson by 67 the week before.

     

     

     

     

    • Hook 'Em 2
  9. Early, but lines I think I'm liking:

    NC State +16.5 @ UNC.   NC State just lost their starting QB so need to do some research there but I'm forever unconvinced on Mack's Tarheels and this feels like a lot of points.

    K State - 18.5 vs KU.

    Boston College - 4 vs. Georgia Tech 

     

     

  10. Not a great week... Went 2-3 on the above.  Chased my losses with Bama so that worked out okay but still barely broke even.

    I fucking hate Tulane.  Bet for them, screw me.  Bet against them, screw me.  I was also on the wrong end of their insane hail mary at the buzzer last year against Houston.  Add them to the Horns on my list of unbettables. 

     

     

  11. Added Ole Miss to my card last week last minute which would have had me at 4-1 and a solid week.  Naturally, my drunkass broke my promise to myself to not touch the Horns again this season and about wiped out my week.  What is bankroll management?

    This week liking:

    SMU -6.5 @ Tulane

    BC +11 @ Va Tech

    NC State -4.5 vs Duke

    A&M -6.5 @ Miss State

    Ole Miss -3 @ Arkansas 

    Bunch of away teams again which scares me but going to go with it. 

  12. On 10/10/2020 at 10:52 AM, SDG said:

    I went 0fer last week so I'm giving it another try.  

     

    TTech +13, Miami +15, Florida -7, Texas ML, & Texas +3.

    Two straight weeks of Ofers is actually kind of impressive.

    • Hook 'Em 1
    • Like 1
  13. 52 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

    That's the concern I have, is I'm picked road teams in every game.  That can't be a good strategy.

    Yeah I hear ya...  My working thesis early on was that empty stadiums would negate home field advantages but not sure I've seen enough to support it.  I do get weary when I see all the road picks but I still THINK I see value in these.  But again, I'm an idiot so we will see.

  14. 23 hours ago, Sbbruin said:

    So our little gambling consortium group is going again where we have maybe 16 of us and each week everyone picks SNF and MNF, and one person picks 3 college/2 pro or 4 college, 1 pro game.  Point spread bets only.  This week is me.  Whaddya got?

    Thoughts-

    Texas v OU (-2.5)- taking Texas (I think it comes down to Ehllinger v Rattler, and I don't have faith in Rattler)

    Fla (-7) @ aggy-  taking FLA (Mond sucks, Jimbo cratering Tamu)

    Alabama (-24) at Ole Miss - taking Ole Miss (Kiffin can come up with SOMETHING to keep it closer than 24, yes?)

    talk me out of the above or offer alternates, please.

     

    I'm also on Fla -7.

    I actually do like Kiffin to cover but not enough to put it on my card.  He loves being a thorn in Saban's side and you know he will have them up for it at home.  Bama also has UGA next week.

    • Hook 'Em 1
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