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camel at sea

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Everything posted by camel at sea

  1. OU and Texas are bolting b/c the Big 12 cannot get close to the B1G/SEC w/r/t payout. They're probably also bolting to help with fan apathy and to be in the room when the SEC determines NIL policy. They aren't bolting b/c they weren't about to sign a deal that pays a lot more than the ACC (and probably the PAC.). The TV ratings for the IR8 back that up, too. The Big 12's current deal with ESPN/FOX was signed with its current membership in place. The 2011 season was played with 10 teams on the old 12 team deal. But all parties negotiated a new deal - with the current ten teams - in 2012. To the extent there might have been a gross overpayment from there forward, it was on the LHN (and even that I'd disagree with b/c it was at least breaking even if not doing better than even a couple of years in.) The Tier 1/2 deals were based on actual value and the TV numbers back that up. The Big 12 is 3rd in payout. It's 3rd in TV ratings.
  2. In 2019-2020, the ACC's distribution averaged $32.3M per school and they can't negotiate a new rights deal for another decade+. Assuming that the IR8 are worth about half of the Big 12's $40M per school distribution, then they have a chance to be alright. The Big 12's current deal is a decade old. Big 12 v.4 just need live TV to continue escalating in value. Pretty much all live TV is seeing huge pay increases. If they can get per-school payout into the high 20s and keep P5 status (with the CFP access and money that comes with it) they'll have the worst house in the neighborhood but they'll still be in the P5 neighborhood. It's not realistic to try competing financially with the SEC or B1G. But if money can be competitive-ish with the ACC and PAC, then it's probably good enough to keep Big 12 football programs in roughly the same spot they've been in.
  3. Yep. That's the other likely option. If Bowlsby is still popping off at Disney then I think he feels pretty good about the conference having a landing spot with a major broadcast partner. Otherwise, the path of least resistance seems like it would be to play nice with the Mouse and leverage the Texas-Oklahoma buyout negotiation for favorable terms on B12 expansion and a new rights deal... with Disney.
  4. If the Big 12 were solely CTZ schools, an all-in BYU is less problematic. If the Big 12 has WVU, Cincinnati, and UCF... asking them to travel to Utah for Olympic sports is the problem.
  5. This leads me to believe he thinks that he has a post-expansion media rights buyer who is not Disney. Maybe he does. If someone like CBS wants into the college athletics space for their streaming app, they could probably pick up the Big 12 v.4 at a discount and get some relatively good return on that.
  6. The biggest thing is travel and Sunday scheduling. Those are non-issues in football. They are legitimate issues in everything else. I don't think BYU is additive enough in everything else to justify dealing with that.
  7. East: WVU, Cincy, UCF, KU, KSU, ISU West: BYU, Houston, TTU, TCU, BU, OSU I would watch and enjoy that West division a lot. If the Big East was an AQ conference from 2005-2011, then this is a "power conference" also. Comments this week from the alliance kind of lead me to believe they won't go out of their way to revoke the title from the Big 12. This iteration of the Big 12 is better than the Big East was back then. Either way, if the CFP expansion was proposing that the top six conference champs make the playoff, then as long as it expands, the Big 12 would make the CFP pretty much annually under those same parameters. Killing the American also more or less guarantees the PAC a spot even if the format doesn't put that guarantee in writing. UCF has three major bowl trips in the last decade. UC has three in the last 15 years. UH won a Peach Bowl in the last decade. BYU has a color TV era national title in the trophy case. Make BYU a "football only" and you avoid the Sunday play issues and most of big travel headaches associated with them. The other 11 can still do a double round robin in basketball (which was the best part of the Big 12, IMO.) On the basketball front, UH and Cincinnati have a combined 12 final four appearances including one just last year.
  8. Yeah. If Bowlsby is too collegial after all that has happened to be ruthless, then they need to hire someone who is willing to be ruthless. Luck would work as a consultant that they listen to but he's probably too big a name for the Big 12 at this point.
  9. Houston would probably pull even with the Tech, TCU, Baylors... but I'm not sure they can pull ahead any time soon. It's not like they're regularly even winning their division in the American. TCU, Baylor, and Houston would all be in some pretty prime recruiting turf so I don't know that UH has a significant advantage. UH doesn't have dramatically deeper donor pockets. It's going to be a coach-driven conference from there, I think. That said, the Big 12 should *want* Houston to join and significantly elevate itself. They need breadwinners. If they still don't understand that part of the equation, it doesn't bode well for the conference.
  10. Of all the expansion candidates, Houston is probably the Big 12's best TV option for football. UH vs. TTU/TCU/BU/OSU is a better TV match-up than probably anyone else that can be added (except maybe BYU.) Houston also just made a Final Four in men's basketball, too. It would be a very Big 12 move to avoid adding them. The smart move is to kneecap the American and create some separation between itself and the Group of 5.
  11. Apparently nobody wants to hear it upthread, but the TV numbers for "the other 8" are relatively competitive even without Texas and OU. It makes sense that *someone* would decide to pay them fair market value for the TV viewers that they are capable of generating. If Disney/FOX/CBS/etc. can get them to $20M per school for Tier 1/2, then the Big 12 can get well north of $30M per school distribution adding in CFP money, NCAA tourney money, etc. Add in a significant buyout for the Remaining 8 from UT/OU and a phase-in period financially from the new members, and the Big 12's IR8 come out of this afloat.
  12. The Leach situation is not a perfect parallel. That's why everyone is walking lightly on this and why they have always treated the "handcuffs" seriously. The risk of letting things play out in court is high enough for both sides that both sides will eventually settle. I also do not think that Disney really wants the GOR tested in court b/c it's useful for them in other arenas (i.e. the ACC.) The level of risk and the unknowns in court is what gives the GOR teeth. No one knows how the sovereign immunity argument will play out with respect to getting out of a conference's GOR. It's either an epic win or an epic loss. I think sovereign immunity is a good argument but a judge doesn't necessarily have to see it that way. All of the public talk from Texas and OU has implied (publicly) that they will stay for the duration of the GOR to avoid legal issues. I don't think that happens. I doubt anyone does. But the Big 12 are facing financial Armageddon so they need to get enough back from the outgoing members to agree to settle. If the B12 and UT/OU agreed to a $160M buyout, then the LHN covers it. I think that's probably about how it works out. That's the path of least resistance, it keeps the Big 12 relatively whole through the end of the current deal, and it doesn't do any real damage to UT or OU.
  13. I mean by even the smallest estimates I've seen, they're looking at $100M+ in buyout money.
  14. I think it helps the Big 12 that we're in a seller's market for TV rights. Someone (CBS, NBC, FOX, a Big Tech company, etc.) will bid on their inventory to bolster a streaming app that needs live inventory. The remaining 8 have TV numbers that warrant that. The TV deal is only a portion of the financial revenue anyway. The CFP money is going to be a bigger component, by percentage, going forward and the league does well with NCAA tourney money already.
  15. If the Big 12 gets a fair deal (and it's a seller's market for conferences with respect to demand for live inventory), then per-team distribution shouldn't lag too much behind the ACC. I'd guess the distribution will be similar to what the PAC will end up making, too. The TV numbers point in that direction. Lag way behind Indiana, Vandy, and Rutgers? Absolutely. But the money should be well above G5 money. We're moving toward a two-tiered Power 5. But the bottom half of that is still "at the table." The Remaining 8 will also get an enormous buyout from Texas and Oklahoma, they'll undoubtedly get some kind of buy-in from the new additions, and the Big 12 does very well with NCAA tourney financial distributions (though if the NCAA dies that becomes a big unknown.)
  16. Oklahoma State is going to have a seat at the table when this all shakes out. Top 20 TV numbers when you consider how much of that is overcoming the fact games are on FS1 is too good to leave out of the mix. It'll either be as one of the tentpole programs of an expanded Big 12 (G5 adds.) Or the Big 12 picks up the PAC leftovers after the B1G raids the West Coast. Looking at that article, it appears that if the Remaining 8 schools stick together, they should add BYU and Houston. I do kind of wonder whether this current conference vs conference deal is the transition phase in breaking away from the NCAA. Then maybe at that point everyone can start working more collectively.
  17. #15 Oral Roberts knocked off #2 Ohio State just this year. It doesn't happen often but it happens often enough that it makes the opening weekend of the tourney a lot of fun. If you make it a big boys only party, you're changing the fabric of what the tourney is and how it has marketed itself for 40 years. In recent memory, schools like George Mason, VCU, Butler, Wichita State, and Gonzaga have made deep tourney runs. Gonzaga has done it so often now that people forget they're playing in the otherwise forgettable West Coast Conference. Florida Gulf Coast, Oral Roberts, and a bunch of others of that ilk have escaped the first weekend. It's a massive assumption to believe that a non-inclusive tournament is going to generate the same national interest (or close) as the current one. It's a completely different product without the small schools. It makes way more sense to keep the tourney intact but to change the way the money generated from it gets distributed.
  18. Oklahoma State's numbers are pretty strong, too.
  19. Yeah. I think FBS is too glutted (130 FBS teams is way too many) but the reaction to that is going too far in some quarters. Separate from some Sun Belt and CUSA teams in football? Sure. Stop playing P5 programs and G5 programs that have been at the highest level for 100 years? That's too far. NFL Lite is a short term cash grab that is a bad idea in the long term. Same thing with the NCAA tourney. Reclaiming some of the revenue from that event for the P5 basketball programs that make most of the money is a good idea. Uninviting 75% of the schools that currently compete to play in the NCAA tournament is a bad idea. The interest level in a P5 only NCAA tourney would be way down from the current tournament.
  20. This is true. But it leaves out a lot of programs that *almost* won a title. WVU ('88, '93, '07), OSU ('11), KSU ('98), TCU ('14), and Baylor ('14) have all been agonizingly close to winning or playing for a national title. That's just within the Big 12. Even though they didn't win a title, those type of seasons keep those fans coming back, investing in tickets/donations, watching on TV, etc. It's a major change to what college football is if you remove those "almost" seasons from the equation.
  21. Year to year, an expanded IR8 is probably pretty competitive with the PAC and ACC except at the very top of the conference. Most years the Big 12 champ would be in an expanded playoff and occasionally they'd win a first round game. ISU last year beat the PAC champ by 17. The year before I think Baylor had a squad good enough to win a first round game with the right match-up. Some of the recent AAC champs were capable of winning a first round game. Getting to a semi-final will be extremely though for those programs, given recruiting limitations, but it'll happen at least once or twice a decade ('11 OSU, '14 TCU were both that good.) To whatever degree basketball matters, with those AAC additions, the Big 12 could probably continue being a #1/#2 RPI conference.
  22. Yeah. I think the benefit of a scheduling alliance is primarily financial. The Big 12 could probably help WVU's recruiting efforts when it eventually expands. Cincinnati is a pretty obvious addition for them. UCF would plant a flag in the state of Florida. West: Tech, TCU, Baylor, Houston, OSU, KU East: Memphis, WVU, UCF, Cincy, ISU, KSU Something like that wouldn't be terrible competitively or with respect to recruiting footprint.
  23. The PAC's big concern is exposure for its good football programs. They can probably achieve that with a media rights deal, in lieu of CTZ expansion. It's easy to forget now, but back about a decade ago, the PAC's national perception in college football was favorable. The slide away from that started with their current TV deal. They didn't have any great Tier 1 exposure on a major platform anymore and a ton of their inventory was buried on their PACN platform and on FS1. Under the prior deal, Disney was giving the PAC (SC specifically) a ton of media exposure. You couldn't turn on SportsCenter during college football season without seeing a story about Pete Carroll, Will Ferrell, and some prank the Trojans played during practice. If they grabbed the mid-afternoon kickoff slot from CBS, or got something like that from NBC, SC and Oregon are going to be nationally visible again. That probably helps them stop the bleed of CA's high school talent to other conferences, too.
  24. I was thinking of the divisions as more of a football specific thing. You don't really need them for football but it could mitigate the BYU travel issue to some degree and I think it would produce better matchups for all involved. Basketball wouldn't need divisions necessarily. As for Creighton, I think my hypothetical Big 12 3.0 (or is it 4.0?) is a better top to bottom basketball conference than the Big East. But even if it's lateral, and the money is lateral, the travel for Creighton under those circumstances would be much easier and less expensive. Their fans are going to prefer to see KU, K-State, and Iowa State than their current schedule. I think Creighton and Memphis would be additive to the Big 12 tourney experience in KC, too.
  25. North: WVU, Cincinnati, Memphis, ISU, KSU, KU South: OSU, TTU, TCU, Baylor, Houston, BYU (Football only) Throw a bone to KU and add Creighton (17K+ attendance for home games) as an everything but football member. Gives the baseball schools some away games at the home of the college world series, too. That leaves the Big 12 as a competitive football conference and an elite basketball conference.
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