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camel at sea

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Everything posted by camel at sea

  1. I don't know if the PAC would do a full merger with the Big 12 but packaging the media rights for the two conferences together seems like a strong possibility. There could be a scheduling agreement component to is so that the big PAC squads play some more CTZ games. If the PAC wanted to align with someone like NBC, it's a less risky move for all involved (from an exposure standpoint) if that broadcast partner has a lot of CTZ inventory, too.
  2. Even if ESPN doesn't bid on the Big 12's inventory, someone is going to (FOX, CBS's cable/streaming platform, Big Tech company, etc.) and you're likely to make more than you would have in the American. It's still a seller's market for live inventory right now and the Irate8 + 2 have some relatively high quality inventory. Beyond that, if you're Houston, which schedule sells more tickets and drives the most donations... Tech, Baylor, TCU, OSU... or Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, etc.? UH basketball can host Kansas and Baylor or Wichita State and Tulsa? That's not close.
  3. A lot of the success of the NCAA tourney is that almost regardless of where you went to college, you can remember at least one time that your school made the tourney. It was a big deal. So in the years where you aren't in, you're still a fan of the tourney itself. It's a risk if you start cutting a lot of fans out of the process. You start cutting schools out - including great basketball schools - you risk killing a lot of the interest in it. In your model, you're leaving out the '21 champ, the '18 champ, the '16 champ, the '14 champ, the '11 champ, the '08 champ, the '04 champ, etc, etc. That's just the tourney winners. There are a ton of Final Four squads in recent years that get left out under that set-up. "Cinderella" is gone forever. You don't want to turn the billion dollar event NCAA tournament into an oversized conference tournament.
  4. The Big 12 is already included in the Power 5 for governance purposes. It's not an issue of being invited. They're already in. As for the tourney, two of last year's Final Four, including the champion, and one of the bluest of the blue bloods historically, is not being left out of the new men's basketball format. Tech played in the most recent title game before that. The easiest way forward for all parties, assuming you can't convince PAC/ACC presidents to invite Big 12 schools, is to leave the Big 12 at the table. They can have the worst seat at the table, mind you, but you avoid a lot of issues leaving them there.
  5. It seems unlikely to me that Bowlsby would be as vocal about ESPN as he has been without some backing from FOX and the Big 12's remaining presidents. It's a convenient narrative to turn the guy into Dan Beebe but I think the word that has best described the guy's tenure is "measured." Arguably too much so. But I'll take your word on knowing people. I don't. FOX not bidding on the Big 12 creates a pretty substantial inventory deficit as compared to status quo. Maybe they fill that by owning 100% of the B1G? Could be the plan. Does the B1G really want to be completely alone on the FOX island? I can't see that. Generally speaking though, the other 8 + 2 (Houston, Cincinnati) is an elite basketball conference and it's good in football. The only true dead weight program for football is a basketball blue blood. Nobody would expect to see nationally competitive media money for an expanded Big 12 but if value equates to payout, they should be able to get comfortably more than the American. And like I said, if the NCAA tourney model changes, being an elite basketball conference could go some distance in offsetting lack of brand power in football.
  6. OSU, Tech, Iowa State, etc., are all going to be better off in an expanded Big 12 than they are now. One or more of them are going to get the national perception bump that WVU got between 2005 and 2011 when the 'eers were dominating the depleted Big East. The Big East conference brand sucked but winning in that conference created a perception bump for individual schools. I remember all the media talk about WVU coming into the Big 12 and dominating. Some of those "other 8" are going to make the playoffs when they would not have made it with status quo. It's not all going to be bad. And if the NCAA tournament gets replaced by "the Power 5 tournament" then, the Big 12 remnants are going to get a lot of lost football revenue back via the basketball court.
  7. That's likely the plan. But FOX isn't going to overpay Washington State, Oregon State, etc., by a number large enough to keep SC and Oregon happy. The PAC will have to work out unequal revenue distribution or go through its own realignment. In theory though, Big 10 goes to 20 teams. Irate 8 add 4 PAC leftovers. FOX owns both leagues. That's 32 schools under their umbrella.
  8. Probably don't have to ditch anyone to make this work. ISU and KSU play good enough football. KU finally made a good hire for football and their primary rival is in the SEC. There are a lot of potentially interesting match-ups between the Irate8 and the SEC West. KU-Mizzou OSU-OU SWC exes (TTU/BU/TCU/UH) - SWC exes (UT/A&M/Arky) Maybe you could get Tennessee or Vandy or someone else to play WVU or Cincinnati. In the long run, the Big 12 - if it survives - probably eventually ends up in a position to poach from the PAC or ACC after they get poached. Might have to wait a decade on that, though.
  9. Eh, the news cycle moves fast. If none of the other 8 have a landing spot, then they'll probably be able to get a better paying deal than the one the AAC has. Even assuming the Big 12 is burning the bridge with Disney, the Irate 8 could probably work out a deal to play on FOX platforms and CBS (the CBS cable sports channel and/or their streaming platform.) It's still a seller's market on the inventory front.
  10. I think this is the direction it will ultimately go. This gives the Big 12 some time to explore a new deal beyond 2025, keep their "power conference" label, etc. I'd guess FOX wants no part of that though so maybe there will need to be some financial concessions on that from Disney to facilitate it. The "Remaining 8" plus Houston and BYU or Cincinnati is not a terrible outcome for the Big 12. It positions them well to pick up PAC or ACC teams when realignment hits one or the other of those conferences. I'm not sure how the relationship with Disney is going to be after all of this. But maybe they can park inventory with FOX and CBSSports.
  11. I was thinking that the contract ran through the 2025 season. But I think you're correct on that. If it's only three seasons, then the total amount is $480M total. The LHN buyout would cover about 1/3rd of the total in that case.
  12. The Big 12 is fighting for every cent of buyout money that they can get and they're also fighting to keep the Big 12 banner and the Power 5 position and the NCAA governance position that comes with it. But yeah, FOX is staring down the barrel of no more RRS, too, and 4 years early. FOX probably doesn't want to see 100% of the valuable and semi-valuable college athletics inventory from the state of Texas all parked under the Mouse's umbrella. If FOX can hold the Little 8 together (and that's simple enough so long as the ACC/SEC don't invite anyone else) then they've got some negotiation leverage. FOX: "Stick to your guns, Bowlsby, get every cent you can from Disney and Texas/OU, and we'll re-sign you after '25 for more than the AAC is paying. Do that and you get to keep your power 5 position, too."
  13. The West is okay (except Tulsa which gets outdrawn by local HS games.) The East is a mess.
  14. East: Temple, WVU, Navy, Cincy, Memphis, Tulane, ECU, USF, UCF West: ISU, KU, KSU, Tulsa, OSU, TTU, TCU, SMU, Baylor, UH Lol. I'd be irate about that if I were an Irate 8 fan.
  15. Let's say that the best case for the Big 12 minus OU and Texas is that they get a new contract for about $20M each. If that's true, then the revenue gap for every one of "the other 8" for the '22-'25 seasons is around $20M per season compared to status quo. $80M per school over four years, $640M conference total. Maybe you could get the Big 12 to negotiate that down if you give them a new deal at $20-25M per and sign off on the league raiding the AAC (rather than the other way around.) But given those dollar amounts, it makes perfect sense why everyone on the Big 12 side is going to fight as hard as they can on this.
  16. My guess is that "the other 8" have figured out that ESPN wants to put some, but not all, of them into the AAC. None of the others have P5 landing spots. So they probably are working together at this point. The ones with invites want a better outcome and those without obviously do.
  17. "The other 8" plus let's say Houston and BYU is an elite basketball conference. It's a pretty good football league. It keeps a flag for FOX planted in the Texas TV market. If the Big 12 gets picked apart and sent to the AAC, FOX is shut out of Texas. There's no way that they want that. The other 8 will play when they are told if it keeps their payout at or above $20M.
  18. Maybe not from Disney. FOX is more likely to play ball with the Big 12, though, if the other 8 stay together. And from the perspective of the other 8, any one of them is probably better off in an expanded Big 12 than in the American.
  19. If I'm one of "the other 8" what I realistically hope to get out of this is 1) payout equal to what I would have received under the current contract, through the end of 2025, and 2) some assurances about a future contract after 2025. Maybe FOX steps in and provides the assurances re: post 2025, but they're only willing to do it if ESPN doesn't poach any additional teams. That's negotiable.
  20. The only school in the Big 12 that might be additive somewhere else is Kansas - and that assumes the NCAA dies and their hoops program stops funding the entire NCAA via the NCAA tourney. They conceivably get a lot of their hoops value back in a revamped tourney structure. Is that more additive than a good football add? Probably not. but there aren't many football additions left to be had. The PAC or ACC might add schools but it's essentially a delay of the inevitable in either cases. Even if they implement unequal revenue sharing, they're just kicking the can down the road until that won't work to keep their bread winners from leaving. The Big 12 will probably know within the next few months whether the PAC big brands 1) have a competitive TV deal to stay in place, and if not 2) whether the B1G (via FOX) wants to poach their big brand schools. If most of the Big 12 sticks together, they end up adding the PAC leftovers. If the PAC holds steady, the Big 12 in the short run adds from the AAC schools and waits to see what happens with the eventual raid of the PAC/ACC. So if you assume the Big Ten creates a 5 team west coast pod and that KU wins a knife fight with CU for the last spot in the Big 20, then you end up with something that looks like this: West: Zona, ASU, Utah, CU, TTU, TCU East: OSU, KSU, ISU, BU, UH, WVU That's a fun and balanced league and it's still a power conference technically (voting issues, playoff access, etc.) The money would be a lot better than G5 money even if it's nowhere close to SEC or B1G money.
  21. They should call Nebraska and get to work saving the Big 12.
  22. If Colorado is actually putting out feelers with the Big Ten, then it means they want to get a spot early before the big brands of the PAC leave them without a seat. The conference of Big 12 and PAC 12 leftovers seems like a strong possibility.
  23. Assuming this is just step one of major realignment, and phase two is B1G raids PAC (most likely next move IMO).. then I think the Big 12 and PAC leftovers get together and form a decent league. West: ASU, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Tech, TCU East: OSU, Kansas, KSU, Iowa St, Baylor, WVU WVU probably ends up in an eastern league after the ACC gets poachable. But that might be quite a way down the road. The only schools in big trouble in that scenario are Oregon State and Washington State (and they're the two that should be in the most trouble from a value standpoint.) If on the other hand, the B1G doesn't raid the PAC, then I think the Big 12 adds a couple of schools from the G5 and survives. Houston, BYU, and Cincinnati all make some sense.
  24. Swaim is about as credible as that MHver guy at WVU from 10 years ago.
  25. Value/payout are the best way to predict what will happen. If you lose dead weight like Tulsa and Tulane (and others you make more money. There's less dead weight on the Big 12 side of that tug of war. Obviously that changes if a few of those Other 8 from the Big 12 land in another P5 league. But who is going to land somewhere else? The messaging on this for a decade has been that Texas and OU are the only two schools who add value to another P5 conference. Why would that change now?
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